puerto rico climate briefing presentation
DESCRIPTION
On Thursday, members of the Puerto Rico Climate Change Council presented their research to Congress. It features the research of Dr. Cecilio Ortiz, associate professor of Public Administration and Policy, Department of Social Science, University of Puerto Rico-Mayagüez; Javier Laureano, executive director, San Juan Bay Estuary Program; and Ernesto Díaz, director, Coastal Zone Management Program.TRANSCRIPT
Puerto Rico
“THE ISLAND OF CLIMATE
CHANGE” -JUDITH ENCK, RA-EPA, R-2
Dr. Javier E. Laureano
Executive Director
San Juan Bay Estuary Program
Part of the US since 1898-US citizens since 1917-US currency
Island population: 3.7 million (plus 4.6M living in mainland US), more than:
Wyoming
DC
Vermont
North Dakota
Alaska
South Dakota
Delaware
Montana
Iowa
Connecticut
Oklahoma
Oregon
Rhode Island
Hawaii
Maine
New Hampshire
Idaho
Nebraska
West Virginia
New Mexico
Nevada
Utah
Kansas
Mississippi
Watershed & Water Bodies
LAND USE Most of the population living in coastal areas-near 1M in the
SJBE’s watershed-
National Estuary Program-USEPA
WHAT IS IN PERIL DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE?:
The economy of Puerto Rico and the Caribbean region
9.2 million travelers per year/ LMM Airport
1.2 million cruise passengers per year
80% of all imports-Shipping container volume greater than Hawaii, Guam and Alaska combined.
ECOSYSTEMS THREATENED BY CLIMATE CHANGE?:
Key ecosystems
124 fish species
160 bird species
300 wetland plant species
33% of all remaining mangrove acreage of the Island
Current situation:
STEADY SEA LEVEL RISE FOR 48 YEARS
NOAA-La
Puntilla-San Juan
Metro Area: Extreme Events: Decadal episodes >78mm/24hrs
(Pablo Méndez-Lázaro, Frank Muller et al.)
Current situation:
CONSTANT FLOODS OF STORMWATER COMBINED WITH RAW SEWAGE
Martín Peña Channel: 27,000 persons living in poverty
constantly flooded with raw sewage-public health crisis-
Current situation:
SEVERE COASTAL EROSION
2007
2010
2014
PUBLIC HEALTH CONCERNS:
Dengue, Asthma, Chikungunya
What are we doing?:
RED MANGROVE PLANTING
(Ecosystem-based adaptation)
Restoring the shoreline
Community-
based
2007-2008
2011-2012
2014
Citizen Science:
Living lab for
students
Citizen Science:
Living lab for
students
What are we doing?:
IMPROVING THE SYSTEM’S RESILIENCE THROUGH INVASIVE SPECIES
REMOVAL FROM WETLANDS
Promoting healthy wetlands through invasive
species management: Melaleuca quinquenervia
Melaleuca stand
N 0.05 km
Melaleuca
quinquenervia
removal
Melaleuca
quinquenervia
removal
WHAT ARE WE DOING?:
Creating the conditions to recruit new corals
(Environmental enhancement)
245 structures- 800lbs each-
Deployment
Deployment
Underwater trail
creation
90% increase in
fish population
2,500 new coral
colonies
What are we doing?:
EDUCATING THE PUBLIC THROUGH PUBLIC SERVICE CAMPAIGNS,
WORKSHOPS AND PUBLICATIONS
Sierra Club’s Cool Cities Campaign: Global
Change Solutions for Puerto Rico
Over 1,000 mayors of the US and PR have signed an
agreement to reduce energy consumption
The agreement:
What are we doing?:
We are conducting the first lagoons’ water level monitoring with the USGS
San José Lagoon-San Juan – 50049800 (USGS)
Partnerships
• USEPA-Climate Ready Estuaries-
• USGS
• NOAA
• USFW
• Enlace Latino the Acción Climática (ELAC)
• University of Puerto Rico
• University of the Sacred Heart
• University of South Florida
• Department of Environmental and Natural Resources
• Caribbean Coastal and Ocean Observing System
• Puerto Rico Climate Change Council
• Sierra Club-Cool Cities
Become our next partner! Some areas where we need funding and alliances:
Adaptation planning
Public health studies and prevention methods
Protection of key infrastructure
Beach nourishment
Disasters and flood prevention
Coastal erosion
Dunes protection
Invasive species removal and management
Relocation of families and citizens
Education and communication efforts
Wetlands protection and enhancement
Resiliency Funding
THE STATE OF THE PUERTO RICO CLIMATE: 2014
Assessing socio-ecological vulnerabilities in a changing climate…
pr-ccc.org
Geophysical
and Chemical Scientific
Knowledge
Ecology and Biodiversity
Communicating Climate Change
and Coastal Hazards
Society and Economy
PRCCC
Working Groups
Population and Economy
Emerged land area: 3,508 mi ² (9,497 km2)
Territorial waters: 9 mn (10.35 mi)
Population: 3.7 millon (29th U.S.) Coastal Population: 2.7 million (70%)
Urban areas/coastal zone: 40%
Urban/coastline ratio: 24%
GNP: $67 billion/yr (2013)
Manufacture: 45.5%
Finances, Insurance and Real Estate: 19%
Services: 12.8% (Tourism: 8%)
Government: 9.7%
Commerce: 7.8%
Transportation and Services: 3.2%
Construction: 1.9%
Agriculture: 0.7
Eleven ports
Eight airports
Six Power Plants
1,080 miles of sanitary infrastructure
13 waste water treatment plants
81 industrial parks
114 miles of primary roads
Critical Infrastructure / Coastal Zone (1 Km)
The WMO report (2014) confirmed that 2013 tied with
2007 as the sixth warmest on record:
The extreme events of 2013 were consistent with what
we would expect as a result of human-induced
climate change.
“We saw heavier precipitation, more intense heat,
and more damage from storm surges and coastal
flooding as a result of sea level rise - as Typhoon
Haiyan so tragically demonstrated in the Philippines,”
WMO Secretary-General, Mr. Michel Jarraud
Hayhoe et al, 2012
Tem
per
atu
re
Pre
cip
ita
tio
n
< 1
in/d
ay
Extr
eme
pre
cip
ita
tio
n
>
3in
/da
y
Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) – (CariCOOS)
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5 SLOPE= 0.023 0C.y
-1 (+/- 0.002)
R=0.30 N=1513 P <0.0001
NE
Ca
rib
be
an
SS
T a
no
ma
ly (
0C
)
SST data from CaTS. The slope or SST trend between 1993 and 2007 was linearly estimated at 0.026 (+/-.01) degrees Celcius/yr
SLR Projections, Planning and Design
considerations for Puerto Rico
1. PRCCC Analysis Conducted by USACE , Jacksonville District 2. Section 22 Agreement has been formailized by DNER-USACE
• by 2060: 0.07 to 0.57 m above current mean sea level • by 2110: 0.14 and 1.70 m above current mean sea level
Ernesto L. Díaz 2013
Storm Surge Modeling in Puerto Rico in Support of Emergency Response,
Risk Assessment, Coastal Planning and Climate Change Analysis
More intense?
More frequent?
HURRICANES
Presidential Disaster Declarations (1989-2014)
Are climate changes natural or human induced?
Ninety-seven percent of climate scientists agree that climate-warming trends over the past century are very likely due to human activities,1and most of the leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing this position. http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus
…WE MUST ADAPT !
HOTELS – FLOOD ZONE
Puerto Rico’s Adaptation Strategies
- Island-wide, municipal and community-based adaptation - risk reduction plans
- Integrate climate scientific knowledge to plan new cities and towns
- Adaptive design of new infrastructure
- Planned retreat
- Ecosystem based Adaptation
- Beneficial uses of dredged materials
- Sustainable beach nourishment
- Secure financing to protect, adapt, relocate and/or retrofit critical infrastructure
DECREASING VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE:
Cecilio Ortiz, PhD
University of Puerto Rico
A transdisciplinary platform for sustainable governance
CREPR: Energy Regulatory Commission
DT: Department of Labor
DA: Department of Agriculture
DT: Department of Transportation
PRIDCO: PR Industrial Development Corporation
DV: Department of Housing
JCA: Environmental Quality Board
DS: Department of Health
THREE FUNCTIONS OF THE ENVIRONMENT
Living Space Waste
Repository
Supply Depot
VULNERABILITY AND RISK… TWO ESSENTIAL CONCEPTS
• Vulnerability – group of characteristics of a person or a group that influence in his/her capacity to anticipate, cope and recuperate without external aid from the impact of a extreme natural event.
• Risk – probability that the personal characteristics associated to vulnerability and generated by economic, political, and cultural conditions coincide in time and space with an extreme natural event.
THE CONFLICT OF SUSTAINABILITY
• A political system that guarantees its citizens the oportunity to participate effectively in decision-making processes.
• An economic system that is capable to generate sustained surplus and technical knowledge.
• A social system that provides solutions to the social tensions consequence of the disonant development.
• A production system that respects the obligation to preserve the ecological base of development.
• A Technological system that can search for new solutions continuously.
• An international system that promotes sustainable paterns of comerce and finances.
• An flexible administrative system that has the capacity to auto-correct.
SUSTAINABILITY IS…
(World Commission in Environment and Development, 1987a: 65)