publishing trend @ bologna children book fair

Pierdomenico Baccalario

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Book On A Tree - Bologna 2014

Present : great shiftsEvery generation has underestimated the potential for finding new ideas. We consistently fail to grasp how many ideas remain to be discovered. Possibilities do not merely add up; they multiply.

- Erik Brynjolfsson - Andrew McAfee, The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies


– Robert Muchamore (Bookseller 14.03.14, pag. 19)

“The story of publishing is one of decreasing prices and the increasing variety of books. Public libraries were created when books cost several days’ wages.

Now, they are cheaper than a sandwich, and Shakespeare is free.”

Bad news: Prices


❖ 262, 7 Million of books borrowed in 2012-13!

❖ 288 Million of visits!

❖ + 44,5% volunteers to keep the libraries open!

❖ - 100 libraries in the Uk in the next two years!

❖ For the first time in the UK librarian industry the number of independent libraries has fallen under 1000 (they are 987). Over a third of independent bookshops have been wiped out in the past nine years.

Bad news: Places

Bookseller (21.02.14)


Bad news: Time

– Scott Wallsten, What are We Not Doing When We’re Online?!

“Each minute of online leisure time is correlated with 0.29 fewer minutes on all other types of leisure, with about half of that coming from time spent watching TV and video, 0.05 minutes from (offline)

socializing, 0.04 minutes from relaxing and thinking, and the balance from time spent at parties, attending cultural events, and listening to the radio. Each minute of online leisure is also correlated with 0.27 fewer minutes working, 0.12 fewer minutes sleeping, 0.10 fewer

minutes in travel time, 0.07 fewer minutes in household activities, and

0.06 fewer minutes in educational activities”


❖ There are 43,200 hours of new YouTube videos created each day, as well as 250 million new photos uploaded each day on Facebook. Users also contribute valuable but unmeasured content in the form of reviews on sites like Amazon, TripAdvisor, and Yelp. A team of just fifteen people at Instagram created a simple app that over 130 million customers use to share some sixteen billion photos (and counting).

Bad news: Contents

Erik Brynjolfsson, Andrew McAfee (The Second Machine Age)


– Dale Jorgenson - Barbara Fraumeni, Productivity and U.S. Economic Growth

“The value of human capital in the United States is five to ten times larger than the value of all the

physical capital in the United States..”

Good news: Human Capital


❖ As the technology destroys geography — a barrier that used to protect authors from worldwide competition—it opens up specialisation as a source of differentiation. Instead of being the thousandth-best children’s book author in the world, it may be more profitable to be the number-one author in Science-Based Advice for Football Clock Management.

Good News: Specialisation

Erik Brynjolfsson, Andrew McAfee (The Second Machine Age)


Good news: Imagination

– Julian Simon, The Ultimate Resource, 1981!

“It is your mind that matters economically, as much or more than your mouth or hands. In the long run, the most important economic effect of population size and growth is the contribution of additional

people to our stock of useful knowledge.!!

The main fuel to speed the world’s progress is our stock of

knowledge, and the brake is our lack of imagination.”


Children’s lit: UkWhere children’s literature is concerned, the golden age refers to a long period beginning in and around the 1830s, and continuing into the early twentieth century. Writers were beginning to preach at children less, and feed their imaginations more.


From here:


To here:


Little Brown Young Readers is working with toy giant Mattel to publish Ever After High franchise. A middle grade series of books set in a boarding school where the children of classic fairytale characters choose either to follow their parents’ fables or to carve out their own destiny.

Mattel has already launched a range of six dolls (at £ 19,99), and next year will roll out clothing, accessories, stationery and other products.


The philosophy? Tom Weldon, UK executive of Penguin-Random House, says that…


“The biggest challenge for publishers is not digital, but discoverability; how do we capture

consumers’ attention. Once you’ve caught it, I don’t mind where they buy the book”

– TW on Bookseller, 14.03.14, pag. 06-07



“With our brands we no longer compete just with other publishers, but with tech companies, and

other entertainment business, such as BBC, Lego…”


“We will be the first of a new kind of childrens’ publisher: we are storytellers, but we might tell this story through books, toys, app, clothes. You

can’t just think of this as a book, because kids don’t”



Uk children book market

Topics?Centenary of First World War!Dying / real stories!Be super / Be funny!Cooking for children


❖ … a dog (Megan Rix, A soldier’s friend)!

❖ … a magical car (Cameron McAllister, The tin Snail)!

❖ … poetry and a museum (Gaby Morgan, Poems from the first world war)!

❖ … a brother (Dan Smith, My brother’s Secret)!

❖ … love (Mary Hooper, Poppy)!

❖ … love - but at the end he dies (Rebecca Stevens, Valentine Joe)!

First World War +


❖ … witches and a trilogy (Sally Green, Half bad)!!

❖ … mystery and a series (in the ’30), (Robin Stevens, Murder most unladylike)!

❖ … afterlife shock and a one-shot novel (Patrick Ness, More Than This)

Dying +


❖ … mutant teens (Steve Feasey, Mutant City)!

❖ … teenagers superhuman (Jeff Povey, Shift)!

❖ … school devils and angels (Soman Chainani, World Without Princes)!

❖ … absolutely nothing of special (Tom Gates, A tiny bit lucky)

To be super +


❖ … Let’s Bake (Cathryn Dresser)!

❖ … How can a pigeon be a war hero? (Tracey Turner)

Non - fiction


Children’s lit: ITAThe children’s book market is not yet globalised, and there is different way to react to the same topics. There are different main character and different Super Star.

Colloquio con un editore che ha chiesto di rimanere anonimo. E che non è seduto in questa sala. Forse.


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To here:


❖ … american slavery (Francesco D’Adamo, Oh, Freedom) !

❖ … first world war (Chris Hill, Il volo dell’asso di picche)!

❖ … ’29 crisis (Francesco Silei, La doppia vita del signor Rosember)!

❖ … second world war (Roberto Denti, Ancora un giorno ; Cognolato - DelFrancia, L’eroe invisibile)!

❖ … criminal gangs (and judo) (Luigi Garlando, ‘o Maè)!

❖ … migration and natural disaster (M.T. Andruetto, Il paese di Juan)

Facts +


❖ … glasses (Elvira Linda, Manolito Quattrocchi)!

❖ … brothers (James Patterson, Mio Fratello le spara grosse)!

❖ … and trouble-makers (da Tom Gates alla Schiappa, passando per Gianburrasca e Timmy Frana)

Funny School +


❖ … Oxford (Samantha Shannon, La stagione della falce) !

❖ … riding clouds (Alex Shearer, Cacciatori di nuvole ; Davide Morosinotto, le Repubbliche Aereonautiche)!

❖ … fight for love (Lauren Oliver, Requiem)!

❖ … fight against aliens (Rick Yancey, La quinta ondata)!

❖ … parallel worlds (Leonardo Patrignani, Utopia)!

❖ … vikings mices (Geronimo Stilton, i Topinghi)

Distopic +


❖ … witches and a trilogy (Sally Green, Half bad)!

❖ … a castle full of dark stories (AA.VV. , Il castello della Paura)!

❖ … a boy grown prisoner in a room (David Almond, La vera storia del mostro Billy Dean)

Fear +


❖ … sex (Godard-Weil, Smack! Smack!)!

❖ … philosophy for children (Anna Vivarelli, Pensa che ti ripensa)!

❖ … horribles animals (Elise Gravel, il verme; la mosca)!

❖ … early pregnancy (Annalisa Strada, una sottile linea rosa)!

❖ … kids in history (Laura Orvieto, Storie di Bambini molto antichi)

Non - fiction +


❖ … Ugo Fontana ( + Roberto Piumini, Grandi Regine ; + Donatella Ziliotto, Mondo Bambino)!

❖ … Mafalda (Quino, Mafalda)!

❖ … black chicken (Calimero)

Old-style stories +


Mondadori publishes a new serie of pre-school book based on “Calimero”, one of the most acclaimed italian characters of ’80. Now on air in a 3d new style animation cartoon on RAI.


Uk/Ita children book market

What’s happening?Italian authors are focused on specific and specialised topics. Perhaps they need to be “more italian in an international way”.


Settings

Characters

World

ME


SuperStars Take AllWrites R.H.Frank, on New York Times, in “Winners Take All, but Can’t We Still Dream?”


Choosing the bestTechnology has supercharged the ability of authors like Rowling to leverage their talents via digitization and globalization. Rowling’s stories can be captured in movies and video games as well as text, but each of those formats, including the original books, can be transmitted globally at trivial cost. She and other superstar storytellers now reach billions of customers through a variety of channels and formats. More often than not, when improvements in digital technologies make it more and more attractive to digitize something, superstars in various markets see a boost in their incomes while second-bests have a harder time competing. The top performers in music, sports, and other areas have also seen their reach and incomes grow since the 1980s. Only 4 percent of software developers in the burgeoning app economy have made over a million dollars. Three-quarters of them made less than thirty thousand dollars.


❖ Julia Donaldson, for 5-7 market has 9 books in the top ten;

5-7


❖ David Walliams, for 9-12 market has 7 books in the top ten;

9-12


FuturePerhaps the most important ideas of all are meta-ideas—ideas about how to support the production and transmission of other ideas.

- Erik Brynjolfsson, Andrew McAfee (The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies)


❖ … In less then 10 years, an e-reader will cost less than £20…!

❖ … without middleman, a book can costs £1 and can be fairy split between authors and publishers, and writers could earn as much per copy as we do on a paperback…!

❖ … kids on free school meals could get £10 of e-book token every term. !

❖ … school libraries can replace bookshelves with lounges where kids can read, surf or do homeworks and information professional organise events rather than books..

Perhaps…


❖ … could decide to find their new bestseller using start-up like Quirky…

Perhaps publishers…

Quirky seeks ideas for new consumer products from its crowd, and also relies on the crowd to vote on submissions, conduct research, suggest improvements, figure out how to name and brand the products, and drive sales. Quirky itself makes the final decisions about which products to launch and handles engineering, manufacturing, and distribution. !It keeps 70 percent of all revenue made through its website and distributes the remaining 30 percent to all crowd members involved in the development effort; of this 30 percent, the person submitting the original idea gets 42 percent, those who help with pricing share 10 percent, those who contribute to naming share 5 percent, and so on.


❖ Will use Affinova to choose the best cover…

Perhaps publishers…

It makes use of the mathematics of choice modeling, an advance significant enough to have earned a Nobel Prize for its intellectual godfather, economist Daniel McFadden. Choice modeling quickly identifies people’s preferences—do they prefer a brown embossed bottle with a small label, or a green non-embossed one with a large label?—by repeatedly presenting them with a small set of options and asking them to select which they like best. Affinnova presents these options via the Web and can find the mathematically optimal set of options (or at least come close to it) after involving only a few hundred people in the evaluation process.


– A.S. Byatt, The Children's Book, 2009

“Writers for children must still be children themselves, deep down, must still feel childish feelings, and a child's surprise at the

world.”

But for sure…


– Elbert Hubbard, A Thousand and One Epigrams (1911)

“One machine can do the work of fifty ordinary men. !No machine can do the work of one extraordinary man.”

And…


Can machines write books?

Asks David Brooks, on NYT article: What machines can’ do.


We don’t think so


But we could failWe only are children's books writers.

Thanks

Pierdomenico Baccalario

publishing trend @ bologna children book fair

Education