public transport and sustainable development

Public Transport and

Sustainable Development

Dr. André Dantas, Senior Lecturer in Transportation Engineering, Civil Engineering Department

Presentation outline

• An example of “sustainable” public transport system

• Planning process for Public Transport

• Discussion

• Brief self-introduction• Why Public Transport (and why not)?

• Public Transport in the Transport Planning context

• Future Sustainable Development and Public TransportBack to the long-term challengesEnergy availability, urban form and Public TransportRenewable energy and public transport operation

• Public Transport around the world

-From Brazil via Japan;

-Received PhD in 2002 from the Nagoya Institute of Technology, Japan;

-GIS instructor at the University of Brasilia, Brazil;

-Public Transport Planner in the Contagem Municipality, MG, Brasil

-Traffic engineer and transportation planner in different parts of Brazil;

-Research interests include: Neuro-Geo-Temporal models for Transportation Planning; Logistics of Emergency Events; and Energy Constrained Transportation Systems.

Dr. André DantasB.E. Civil (UFMG), M.Sc. (Univ of Brasilia), Ph.D. (Nagoya Institute of Technology)

Brief self-intro

WHY PUBLIC TRANSPORT?

(and why not)

Once upon the time, there was an urban area ….

…. And the urban area was changing

and growing…t=1

t=2

t=n

And growing

….

…and the more it was growing, the more people had complex needs

Complex commuting patterns all over the

city.

t=1

t=2

t=n

Central displacements

on foot;

Travel Demand

Long-motorized travel from suburbs to

CBD;

Does it sound

familiar?

So…How do people participate in activities in a complex urban environment?

A – WalkB – CycleC – Public TransportD - Car

MOST PEOPLE

USE

Is using cars a

good thing? YESNO

For those who said YES

Cars=Jobs=Economic Development=

GOOD??


BUTBUT

BUT


pollutionnoise

congestionaccidents

Is using cars a good thing?

YES

NO

For those who said NO

What can we do?

Public transport

For those who said NO

BUTBUT

BUT

CURRENT CHALLENGES•Can we keep social&economic

development without a car-based economy?

•Can we design Public Transport Systems that meet our needs?

Long-term Challenges•Can we create a Public

Transport system that will be in accordance with future

constraints?•Environment

Energy

CURITIBA - BRAZIL

An example of “sustainable”

Public Transport

Curitiba, Brazil

CURITIBA - BRAZIL

•Totally integrated Public Transport System

CURITIBA - BRAZIL

•Approximately 4 mi people in the metropolitan area

•High levels of accessibility to all segments of society

•Single and low fare to all users

•Public Transport industry exporting technology and services to many countries

CURITIBA - BRAZIL

•4 thousand direct jobs

•Reduction in crime rates over the last 35 years•Buoyant economy attracting various industries

CURITIBA - BRAZIL

What is the secret to success?

CURITIBA - BRAZIL

PLANNING PLANNING PLANNING PLANNING

CURITIBA - BRAZIL

Regional PLANNING Urban PLANNING Transport PLANNING Public Transport PLANNING

CURITIBA - BRAZIL

Planning started in 1970…Vision/objectives/goals:

•To use Public Transport System as a tool to achieve regional and urban goals•To encourage development along axes of the Public Transport system•To incrementally change towards a sustainable transport•To encourage gradual mode change (cars=>bus)

Initial design of the Public Transportation system

•Black Route - Corridor - Articulate bus •Red Route - Feeding - Mini-bus •Pink Route - Conventional - Standard

CURITIBA - BRAZIL

Central Area

Peripheral areas

Corridor

Attraction zones

Initial design of the Public Transportation system

CURITIBA - BRAZIL

Public Transport in

the Transport Planning context

Transportation planning and PT

•Often transportation engineers (and all others involved in the transport industry) neglect the fact that there is much more than considering motorized individual transportation

•Policies, strategies and plans are conceived and implemented without taking into consideration the role of PTB (or public transport in general)

transportation planning objectives are not achieved


Additional travel time delays and pollution to the whole transportation system

For example:-A planning exercise that attempts to improve the transportation system performance by adopting urban road pricing

-HOWEVER, actions to develop the PT system are neglected.

-THEREFORE, expected mode shifts (mostly car users changing to bus services due to travel cost increase) are not observed.


PT planning relates to 4 main levels of transportation planningConceptual combination of transportation systems, land

use policies; economic incentives/disincentives, political/implementation strategies according to

communities’ input.

Assessing specific physical configurations of transportation systems in order to provide information to decision-makers, based on Modelling and forecasting of future performances

Based upon the outcomes of the Planning activities, technology and service levels are selected according

to travel demand and cost tradeoffs

Logistic activities involved in providing the PT Design services as well as evaluation of previous defined targets and standards (e.g. service levels,

costs, reliability, etc).

PT operation

PT design

Planning

Policy making:

Policy 1

Travel Demand Modeling and Forecasting

Improve/Implement Public Transport System

How?Which mode?

Where?

When?

Policy nImprove/Implement Private Transport

How?

Where?

When?

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario m

Evaluation•Cost/Benefit Analysis

•Effectiveness Analysis •Alternative Analysis

Public Transport

Plans

Private Transport

Plan


Diagnosis of the system

Intervening Elements and system characteristics

Simulate travel time car

Estimate Ridership Public Transport Cost revenues

Assess Economic Performance

Operational plan

Service Planning

Control and Evaluation

Every 5

years

Every 3 years

Every year

Operational model Selection of Technology System design

PT planning

CAUTION!!!!!

Evaluation of Transport Projects

•Involvement of international funding organizations (World Bank, IMF, JICA, etc).

•There is always a political aspect playing a very important role;

•Big projects such as Subways, Light rail, etc are extremely influenced by commercial lobby.

•Tendency in conceiving transportation corridors using high-capacity modes

•Benefits, costs and impacts (land use-transportation system interactions) changes are correctly computed.

•In most cases, subsidies are used to reach economic feasibility.•Be aware and concerned about over-estimation of projected travel

demand

Public Transport in around the

world

Nagoya, Japan

Road (90 min.)

Toll road (30 min.)

JR(70 min.)

Bullet train (15 min.)

Bus 1 (100 min.)

Bus 2(120 min.)

ToyohashiNagoy

a

Nagoya, Japan

London, UK

Munich, Germany

Munich, Germany

C:\Documents and Settings\Andre Dantas\My Documents\My Pictures\ItaliaAlemanha\munich2.avi

C:\Documents and Settings\Andre Dantas\My Documents\My Pictures\ItaliaAlemanha\munich3.avi

Munich, Germany

Bangkok, Thailand

Beijing, China

Amazon Region, Brazil

Future Sustainable

Development and Public Transport

Long-term Challenges•Can we create a Public

Transport system that will be in accordance with future

constraints?•Environment

Energy

Peak Oil Probability

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 2075 2100 2125

History

Mean

USGS Estimates of Ultimate Recovery Ultimate Recovery Probability BBls-------------------- ---------Low (95 %) 2,248Mean (expected value) 3,003High (5 %) 3,896

7.8% Growth1963-1973

2% Growth& Decline

High Prices CanAffect Demand4.1% Decline

1979-1983

2016

40

30

35

25

20

15

10

5

01900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050 21002075 2125

Billi

ons

of B

arre

ls p

er y

ear

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Pro

babi

lty (%

)

Peak Oil5% Reduction7.5% Reduction10% Reduction15% Reduction20% Reduction

Fuel Shortage

Probability Consequences

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 20300

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Pro

babi

lty (%

)

Peak Oil5% Reduction7.5% Reduction10% Reduction15% Reduction20% Reduction

•Extremely high transport costs

•Less energy available

•No replacement for petroleum

•Few will afford cars

•Less mobility and accessibility

•Changes in life-style/activities

WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT

THESE LONG TERM

CHALLENGES?

Risk Analysis

• Identify Risks• Evaluate Impacts• Mitigation Measures• Implementation

http://www.ce.washington.edu/~liquefaction/selectpiclique/kobe95/expressway.jpg

Risk assessment

R = risk an oil crisis/shortage event affecting travel/activitiesP= probability of oil crisis/shortage event

IPR *

I = impact of an oil crisis/shortage event quantifies

High

Med.

Low

High Med. Low

I

P

Risk scale

High

Medium

Low

Risk Assessment

Impact1

IPTIPT

I After

Before

Tbefore= travel behaviour before an oil crisis/shortage eventTafter= travel behaviour after an oil crisis/shortage eventIP = importance factor of trips to participate in activities

Energy Constrained Activity Model

Travel/Activity(Tbefore)

RECATS Model

Energy Constraint(EC) EC≥Ebefore?

Modify Travel/Activity

(Tafter)

Constrained Travel/ActivityCalculate Risk

Yes

No

(Ebefore)Energy consumption

Oil crisis/shortageProbability (P)

Case Study, Christchurch 2051

What are the risks?


URBAN DEVELOPMENT OPTIONS AND MITIGATION MEASURES

Business As Usual Car Trips Lost

Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess Opt Pur Ess0

1

2

3

4

5x 10

5

Short Distance Medium Distance Long DistanceTr

ips

per D

ay (1

05)

CarBusWalk

19% 8% 7%

High Risk=133



Option A – Centralized development Car Trips Lost Moderate Risk=104


1

2

3

4

5x 10

5


ips

per D

ay (1

05 )

CarBusWalk

14% 9% 7%



Option B – Hybrid-Corridor based development Car Trips Lost Low Risk=66


1

2

3

4

5x 10

5


ips

per D

ay (1

05 )

CarBusWalk

23% 8% 8%



Option C – Urban sprawlCar based development Car Trips Lost Very High Risk=213


1

2

3

4

5

6

7

x 105


ips

per D

ay (1

05 )

CarBusWalk

100% 28% 6%



Option B – Hybrid-Corridor based development Car Trips Lost Low Risk=66


1

2

3

4

5x 10

5

Short Distance Medium Distance Long Distance

Trip

s pe

r Day

(10

5 )

CarBusWalk

23% 8% 8%

Public Transport’s role?

Renewable Sources

Renewable energy and public transport operation

Fossil Sources

Supply

GW

h

Need More Energy

Is it possible to re-engineer the system according to ENERGY CONSTRAINTS?


City of 340,000 people

Land Area of 450 km2

300,000 Cars

Medium Density City

Reasonable Bus System

Transportation RequirementsChristchurch


http://www.westutravel.com/AGENTS/DJW/New%20Zealand%200802/Cathederal%20Square%20in%20Christchurch2.jpg

The Orbiter11 % of all bus tripsPatronage of over 600,000 per year

www.ecan.govt.nz

Energy Requirement

Transportation System

18 Buses 1.5 hour circuit 10 minute intervals


http://www.ecan.govt.nz/

Andre

What is the Energy Consumption of the current diesel system?

Andre

or 1,2 million??

Orbiter Route

www.ecan.govt.nz


http://www.ecan.govt.nz/

• Independent Grid Required for our electric bus system

Electricity Grid in South Island

70% HydroelectricityBut…Grid is at capacity


Andre

Why is this slide important??

Andre

Woudn't be Performance of existing technologies???

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Time of Year [Month]

Ave

rage

Irra

diat

ion

[kW

h/m

2/da

y]

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

Win

d S

peed

[m/s

]

Solar Wind

Wind & Solar 2003

www.earthday.net

Renewable Energy Resources


http://www.earthday.net/

Performance of Existing Technologies

Based on Actual Performance Specifications for Available Products Wind Turbine: 1 MW DE-Wind D6

www.earthday.netSolar PV: 8% Electric System Efficiency UniSolar

www.auroville.org


http://www.earthday.net/

http://www.auroville.org/

http://acre.murdoch.edu.au/refiles/pv/figure_4.jpg

Electric Trolley Bus

OrbiterOrbiter

•25 kW Motor•40 km/hr max speed•< 0.5% Elevation Change•Overhead Electric Power•Lightweight Frame•32 Passengers


http://members.shaw.ca/dearmond/Tijuana_T.JPG

Alternative Concepts generated Electric Trolley – Fixed Route, Orbiter Schedule

Dedicated Electric Energy System

Wind and Solar Energy Resources


Orbiter schedule is not always met

Wind and Solar Power Trolley Service

Typical Day


Technically Feasible

Economically Impossible

Environmentally Critical

Result: Full Service MetResult: Full Service Met

99.1% of Orbiter Schedule Met:• 2 Wind Turbines• 3 x 200kW Pump/Generators• 106 m3 reservoir• 100 m head

Wind Power + Pump-Storage

Hydro


1MW Wind Turbine 1MW Wind Turbine& 20,000m2 PV

65,000m2 PV

3 * 1MW Wind Turbines

Design ConceptsDesign Concepts

$

$$$

$$$$$$

$$$$$$$$$


Service FactorService Factor

1MW Wind Turbine 61%

65,000 m2 PV 59%

1MW Wind Turbine

+ 20,000 m2 PV86%

3 x1MW Wind Turbines 80%


We reach a considerable number of trolley trips

But not replacement of the Fossil Fuel schedule


Service vs. InvestmentService vs. Investment

$

%


Modern public transportation systems are moving to real-time scheduling

Flexible – Real-Time SchedulingFlexible – Real-Time Scheduling


Dr. Susan [email protected]

Advanced Energy and Material Systems LabAdvanced Energy and Material Systems Lab

Interdisciplinary research effort to develop the theory, models, information, ideas, technology and planning tools for New Zealand to begin the journey toward a Sustainable Civilization.

Dr. Andre [email protected]