public opinion on future innovations, science and...

Eurobarometer Qualitative Study

PUBLIC OPINION ON FUTURE

INNOVATIONS, SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

National Report

June 2015

Italy

This study has been requested by the European Commission, Directorate-General for Research and

Innovation and co-ordinated by Directorate-General for Communication.

Qualitative study – TNS Qual+

Project title

Eurobarometer Qualitative study - “Public opinion on future innovations, science and technology” - National Report Italy

Linguistic Version EN

Catalogue Number KI-04-15-316-EN-N

ISBN 978-92-79-48062-1

DOI 10.2777/238318

© European Union, 2015

Eurobarometer Qualitative study

Public opinion on future innovations, science and technology: results of focus

groups in selected Member States

National Report

Italy

Conducted by TNS Qual+ at the request of the European Commission,

Directorate-General for Research and Innovation

Survey co-ordinated by the European Commission, Directorate-General for Communication

(DG COMM “Strategy, Corporate Communication Actions and Eurobarometer” Unit)

Eurobarometer Qualitative Studies

Journalists and social media

Aggregate report

January 2012

NATIONAL REPORT – ITALY “Innovations, science and technology”

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ........................................................................ 2

B. OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY ...................................................... 7

Objectives ............................................................................................ 7

Methodology and sampling ..................................................................... 7

Participant profile .................................................................................. 7

National context .................................................................................... 7

I. GENERAL PERCEPTIONS ABOUT SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL

INNOVATIONS .................................................................................... 9

1.1 General associations linked to the notion of scientific innovation .......... 9

1.2 The most important scientific and technological innovations observed

over recent years ................................................................................... 11

II. SPONTANEOUS PROJECTIONS ON TOMORROWS SCIENTIFIC AND

TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS ...................................................... 14

2.1 The scientific innovations expected to be part of peoples’ daily life in

2030 and their possible impact ................................................................ 14

2.2 Expected innovations in selected areas ........................................... 16

III. REACTIONS TO FUTURE SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL

INNOVATIONS IN SELECTED AREAS ................................................. 18

3.1 Homes and living ......................................................................... 18

3.2 Health and healthcare .................................................................. 23

3.3 Ubiquitous communication and interaction ...................................... 27

3.4 Environment ............................................................................... 31

IV. CONCLUSION .................................................................................... 35

Qualitative Study European

Commission

Qualitative Study European Commission


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A. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

General perceptions about scientific and technological innovations

General associations linked to the notion of scientific innovation:

Scientific innovations were associated with the universe of

technology (tools, brands, and devices), connectivity (Internet),

medicine (intended as ongoing and evolving research), the

environment (mainly in terms of clean, alternative, environmentally

sustainable energy sources).

Analysis revealed that innovations as a whole brought several

advantages: particularly practical and functional usefulness

(solve problems, optimise time management, simplify complex

operations), easier forms of communication, and a sense of trust

and hope in the future resulting from the consciousness that this

process will never stop, but rather progress even further.

On the other hand, some criticism emerged in connection to an

increasing loss of social relationships in favour of “technological”

isolation, a growing dependence on machines, a tendency to think

and do less, the issue of privacy violations, the lack of control of

data, and, particularly for the younger target, unemployment caused

by machines.

The most important scientific and technological innovations observed over

recent years:

In medicine: prostheses and new materials (e.g. titanium) has

given new life and dignity to disabled individuals, robotics in

surgery provide greater accuracy and less invasiveness, new drugs

are available to treat rare diseases.

In training/education: search engines, mainly Google, enabled

immediate availability of multimedia information and remote

training benefitted older individuals; on the negative side, search

engines promoted mental laziness (Google) and the loss of

traditional social relationships (e-learning).

In living conditions/housing: home automation resulted in

consumption optimisation, both in terms of cost effectiveness and

environmental impact; on the negative side, the initial

implementation cost prevented it from being accessible to everyone.

In mobility/transports: high speed cut down traveling time, but

on the other hand produced a significant environmental impact.

In energy/environment: research and development of alternative,

cleaner energy sources (PV panels, LPG, hydrogen), which on the

positive side brought increased cost effectiveness (lower

consumption and costs), but on the other hand – similarly to home

automation – required a high initial expense and are not accessible

to everyone; additionally, PV panels cause aesthetic modifications in

the landscape.


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In technology: supports, devices, tools (iPads, tablets, smartphones,

etc.) have grown more user-friendly and have become work as well

as leisure tools; digitalisation (MP3s, eBooks) reduced the bulk of

physical devices but on the other hand eliminated the material

pleasure given by traditional objects; e-commerce and e-banking

apps enabled people to do everything from home but also resulted

in limited social relationships; cell phones made communication

mobile and delocalised, but on the other hand resulted in some loss

of privacy. Other negative aspects included a general dependence

on technology, and the fact that companies created false needs and

fashions unrelated to the actual usefulness of the devices.

Spontaneous projections on tomorrows’ scientific and technological innovations

Scientific innovations expected to be part of peoples’ daily life in 2030 and

their possible impact:

The analysis revealed some difficulties in imagining future

scenarios, particularly for the medium-low education target. On

the whole, the predominant attitude was critical and focused on

the negative aspects rather than on the advantages

In general, the ideal scenario described by participants is one where

scientific and technological innovations are truly designed to help

people in current critical areas (e.g. support for disabled people

and for the elderly) without becoming invasive or completely

replacing humans, ensuring increased safety (both personal and

collective), and offering across-the-board energy saving.

A frightening scenario, on the other hand, is one where machines

replace and rule man making him subservient and passive,

taking away his privacy while giving no real benefits in exchange,

and creating absolute dependency on technology and social

isolation.

In mobility/automotive/transportation participants envisioned a

scenario featuring increasing automation to such an extent that

man’s role will be reduced to a minimum (self-driving cars and public

transport, flying cars equipped with auto-pilot, self-braking cars, etc.);

however, this will bring benefits in terms of increased safety

(limiting human error or relying on the superior intelligence of

machines).

Expected innovations in selected areas:

Homes and living: home automation as the basic technology -

every home will be equipped with additional functions including: iris

and palm scans instead of house keys, possibility to change the

colour of the walls and alternative means of transportation, e.g.

drones (for package delivery).

Health and healthcare: more closely linked to technological tools, for

examples Apps for medical self-diagnosis.

Ubiquitous communication and interaction: improved remote

communications, for example hologram calls and telepathic

communication.


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Environment: greater environmental protection, clean energy,

alternative fuels to gasoline, recycling, no paper, no plastic, no state of

nature.

Reactions to future scientific and technological innovations in selected areas

Homes and living

Upon a first reading it triggered unpleasant associations and

feelings (Robocop, sci-fi, annoyance, and invasiveness).

On the positive side, discussion brought up the topic of smart

homes, which represents the evolution of today’s home automation.

On the negative side: Pra’s physical appearance (it’s a robot, cold,

impersonal, bulky), its behaviour (a robot bringing you breakfast in

bed is annoying), privacy violation, lack of control of one’s

personal data, man’s total passiveness and a sense of de-

humanisation.

The scenario was seen as realistic as it involves existing

innovations (floor-washing robots, PDAs, tablets, home automation,

solar panels), but not as desirable.

Discussion revealed that the most interesting (and useful)

innovations are those related to smart homes (coated window

glass and smart meters); dislikes included the complete recording

and storage of data on the server, deemed unacceptable as it

produces a sense of intrusiveness and annoyance while bringing no

practical benefit. Other innovations are seen as quite useless and

uninteresting.

No surprising innovations.

Due to critical areas, these innovations would encounter barriers

of all sorts (psychological, legal, and cultural).

Health and healthcare Upon a first reading, it was better liked by the younger target

than by the old.

On the positive side, discussion brought up the topic of disease

prevention, greater ease of buying and taking tests, immediacy

of results, speed of diagnosis, and the possibility to help scientific

research by centralising data. Negative aspects included the role

of supermarkets in providing such important information, which

may lose credibility. Participants also expressed moral and ethical

perplexities on stem cell therapies (older target) and on the actual

independence of researches from specific pharmaceutical

companies.

The scenario was viewed as realistic because it portrays partially

existing innovations (health records, self-diagnosis tools e.g. for

measuring blood glucose), but also as utopian (older target) when

compared to the critical situation of the national health system.

OTC genetic tests, biochips, and remote medical consultation

were judged as the most surprising innovations; however, in the

older target the genetic tests raised some perplexities over the

reliability of the results.


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Discussion revealed that the most interesting (and useful) innovations

included a centralised health archive and remote medical

consultation; stem cell therapy causes some perplexity over

ethical considerations in spite of its widely accepted helpfulness; the

biochip also raised some concerns over its possible invasiveness,

but it was nonetheless judged as useful (liked by the older target

but not by the young participants); dietary advice raised some

perplexity in the older target, who viewed it as useless.

Based on the critical areas emerged, these could face some

psychological and cultural barriers from more traditional people.

Ubiquitous communication and interaction

Upon a first reading, it triggered unpleasant associations and

feelings (shock, intrusiveness, inhuman).

On the positive side, following the second reading discussion brought

up the topic of personal and collective safety. This aspect is so

important as to induce people to accept, if necessary, the loss of

some personal privacy; on the negative side is the issue of

human behaviour manipulation for profit (supermarket). Some

perplexity also emerged as to the ambivalence of virtual reality: on

one hand, it is an opportunity and serves a practical purpose (when

used under certain circumstances), but on the other hand it could lead

to social isolation if viewed as habitual behaviour.

The scenario was viewed as realistic as it involves existing

(satellites, insurance black box, supermarkets’ loyalty cards) or

partially existing innovations (Skype, video calls, teleconference).

No innovation emerged as surprising.

In terms of liking, best-liked innovations included constant

monitoring (helpful for safety purposes), virtual reality in public

areas (helpful as it meets a real need) and holographic calls (useful

for the older target, not very useful for the younger participants). Face

scanning was disliked, as it is invasive of people’s privacy and is

viewed as useless. Virtual reality at school and work as well as

data collection on preferences obtained an ambivalent evaluation:

useful for practical applications on one side (in specific situations)

but with possible negative consequences for society (virtual reality) or

privacy (data collection) on the other.

Safety applications are welcome across the sample; virtual reality may

encounter cultural and psychological barriers; face scanning would not

be accepted across society as a whole.

Environment From the first reading it triggered interested and curious

comments/associations.

On the positive side, participants liked the topic of environmental

protection and a community organised in an environmentally

sustainable way, the ability to avoid the waste of natural

resources and to recycle them whenever needed, pollution

reduction, and soil and food monitoring. Geo-engineering was

evaluated less positively because it was viewed as being in

contrast with naturalness: the fertilisation concept was disliked


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due to the association to an unnatural act, while the storage concept

was disliked as anxiety-inducing. Some perplexities also emerged

over probes and possible atmospheric pollution.

The scenario was deemed realistic because it involves partially

existing albeit more advanced innovations (separate waste collection,

use of recycled materials, rainwater collection).

Geo-engineering is the most surprising area as well as the least

useful due to the negative aspects emphasised by the target (there is

an issue of comprehension of the mechanisms involved).

In terms of liking and usefulness, all innovations were welcome except

for those pertaining to geo-engineering.

This is a scenario all participants would welcome (except for

bioengineering, which would face psychological barriers).


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B. OBJECTIVES AND METHODOLOGY

Objectives

The aim of this qualitative study was to get a better understanding of European

opinion on the subject of innovations brought about by science and technology in

society. More precisely, its main objective was to explore reactions to some

specific innovations that might be a part of everyday life for citizens in Europe in

15 years’ time in four different areas.

Four areas/scenarios were tested:

The house of the future (Homes and living),

Health and healthcare,

Communications (Ubiquitous communication and interaction),

The environment.

Methodology and sampling

Fieldwork consisted of a series of 6 focus groups, each approximately two hour

and a half in length, conducted in each of the following 16 Member States:

France, Denmark, Germany, Estonia, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Malta, Netherlands,

Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Finland, United Kingdom and the Czech

Republic.

Participant profile The table below presents the composition of groups:

Group Description

1 18-34 years old who finished their education between 17 and 22

2 20-34 years old who finished their education between 20 and 25

3 35-64 years old who finished their education before 18

4 35-64 years old who finished their education before 18

5 35-64 years old who finished their education after 18

6 35-64 years old who finished their education after 18

The detailed participant profiles and group composition, as well as details on the

fieldwork dates are described in the technical report.

National context The difficult economic situation inevitably produced a strong impact on

scientific and technological research in Italy, although the brain drain

phenomenon has been going on for a long time and it is increasingly difficult to

put a stop to it.


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With regard to university research, over the last four years resources were

reduced by €1 billion out of a total of €7.5 billion available; Prin funds (Progetti di

Ricerca di interesse nazionale - Research projects of national interest) shrank

from €75 to € 8 billion (a reduction of nearly a half).

Public contribution to energy research and development activities also

shows a sharp drop, although other European countries have adopted quite

different policies (Germany and UK).

There is also a wide gap between Italy’s continued role in terms of scientific

publications and the increasingly marginal importance of patents. This

shows just how wide the discrepancy is between research competences and the

ability to transfer scientific knowledge to the market. This is partly due to the

increasingly minor role the private sector plays in research and development,

while on the other hand the world of academia and research shows low

propensity to patenting. Last but not least, Italy’s lack of attractiveness causes

many of the Italian researchers obtaining funds to choose to use those same

funds in foreign universities.

A decisive testing ground is the Horizon Plan 2020: €15 billion over the 2014-

2015 two-year period and 80 by 2020 distributed to Universities, research

institutes, industries and SMEs.


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I. GENERAL PERCEPTIONS ABOUT SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS

This chapter focuses on the participants’ general view on scientific and

technological innovations in order to get an overall grasp of their opinion on this

subject. Firstly, what ideas, feelings and associations come to their mind

when thinking about these innovations? What positive and negative aspects

do they tend to associate with innovations brought about by science and

technology? Secondly, looking back on recent years, which innovations do

they think have had the most impact on society and why? What changes

did these scientific and technological innovations bring?

1.1 General associations linked to the notion of scientific innovation

The main associations emerged included:

Tools, technological devices, and brands

o Smartphones, tablets, PCs, Apple (IPad, IPhone)

Internet connection

The environment:

o In terms of clean energy production for increased

environmental sustainability

o In terms of research in alternative energy sources with a

view to ensuring increased cost-effectiveness

“I’m thinking of PV and the whole clean energy issue” (Italy,

Group 6)

Medicine:

o Intended as ongoing research, always associated with

technology and continuously evolving

“Combination of science and technology, a lot of progress has

been made in things like replacing heart valves or artificial

organs” (Italy, Group 5)

Discussion revealed that in these areas, scientific and technological

innovation resulted in:

Simplification of everyday activities resulting in time management

optimisation as well as greater individual freedom: less time to

duty and more time to pleasure

“Things used to be more difficult; you needed more tools, now things

are much easier” (Italy, Group 2)

Practical, pragmatic applications: a solution for every (or almost

every) problem

“You have the world in your pocket” (Italy, Group 2)

Constant, unstoppable evolution, which can only lead to continuous

improvement

“Something that is always on the move, pushing forward, and that is

going to improve in the sense of becoming more advanced” (Italy,

Group 4)

The removal of physical barriers, delocalisation

“I can call my aunt who lives in Argentina and actually see her, this

used to be unimaginable” (Italy, Group 1)

Greater travelling ease

“You used to leaf through Tuttocittà and road maps, now you have

GPS” (Italy, Group 3)


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Cost reduction (due to the multiplicity of players involved)

“Now you have better cell phone rates because there are many

companies competing with each other, the same is true for airlines”

(Italy, Group 6)

The dream of a better world

o The topic of great expectations about an ideal world played

an important role in the discussion, at least until participants

entered a more rational mind-set

“I’m confident and hopeful that something may truly change for

the better” (Italy, Group 3)

On the other hand, negative aspects were also emphasised:

The impoverishment of human relationships:

o Technological devices mediate all our interpersonal relations,

contacts are virtual as opposed to real

“We un-learned to live” (Italy, Group 3)

o We are different from the way we truly are: we are our own

avatar which means “appearance” but no “substance”

“We are just avatars, we are what we claim to be but which we

actually are not, we can pretend and build whole relationships

on this false basis” (Italy, Group 3)

Mental and physical laziness: people totally rely on technology,

stop thinking, and let themselves be led

“You can’t do anything on your own anymore, you need a calculator

even to do simple maths, you used to look things up in encyclopaedias

now all you need to do is type a name” (Italy, Group 4)

Loss of privacy:

o In the web it is impossible to track or control your personal

data

o Being connected necessarily means leaving a trace of

yourself

“That’s extremely dangerous, you need to enter your data to do

just about anything, but where does it end up? You even post

personal things on Facebook, on WhatsApp the other person

knows if you read the message and when you last connected”

(Italy, Group 4)

The pursuit of false needs: manufacturers strive to make

unnecessary things necessary in order to meet purely economic

interests

“Technological research often creates needs that ultimately don’t exist

and people become slaves to something they don’t really need” (Italy,

Group 4)

Techno-dependence: it creates a virtuous cycle in that being

connected is a necessity and you cannot do without it

“It’s like a drug, the more you get the more you want, you panic when

the connection fails, you feel lost” (Italy, Group 6)

Unemployment: machines replace people but generate no additional

employment opportunities

“Business and industry lost many jobs, people are increasingly useless”

(Italy, Group 6)

Social inequality: the most useful technologies are also the most

expensive and accessible to few, at least initially

“Teleheating, home automation are expensive technologies, they’re not

for everyone and even maintaining them is quite costly” (Italy, Group

5)


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1.2 The most important scientific and technological innovations observed over recent years

The analysis confirmed previously emerged topics as well as the

coexistence of pros and cons as two faces of the same coin:

Health/medical treatment:

Applied robotics: accurate, non-invasive operations

o On the positive side, fully successful surgeries and

reduced invasiveness on the patient

Innovative prostheses/materials (e.g. titanium):

o On the positive side: they restore a normal life to people

with serious disabilities; also, lightweight materials provide

lighter, more manageable, safer artificial limbs, which

perform even better than real ones

“Pistorius is the emblem of this; he competed at the

Olympics with no legs” (Italy, Group 6)

Discovery of new drugs:

o On the positive side: they offer a greater number of

people real hope for life and extend the average life span

“Many last-generation drugs have saved the life of many

people, even suffering from rare diseases no one used to

hear about” (Italy, Group 2)

On the negative side: animal testing

Education/knowledge:

Internet, Wikipedia, Google:

o On the positive side, it is like having a digital

encyclopaedia always at hand, a window into the world,

an access to comprehensive information thanks to

multimedia, real-time resources.

“In the past you had to do your research with

encyclopaedias and you didn’t have videos, films or other

resources. The research I did as a child were very different

from today’s. I had to put more time and effort into it” (Italy,

Group 6)

On the negative side, they cause people to grow

mentally lazy and reduce thinking (particularly digital

natives)

Remote classes: training courses, university courses, etc.

o On the positive side, they make learning and reintegration

easier for adult individuals who drop out of the

employment market

“There are training courses you can attend from home

whenever you want, in the evening, in the weekend; they’re

very helpful for working or older people” (Italy, Group 6)

On the negative side: they prevent personal

relationships

“Attending a course in an actual classroom will never

be the same as following it from a remote location,

you will never actually experience the situation,

discuss, interact” (Italy, Group 5)


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Living conditions/housing:

Home automation: o On the positive side: it simplifies life, enables you to

save energy through more efficient household appliance

programming “I can program the heating and air conditioning from my cell

phone, you save money and also get some satisfaction out

of consuming just what you need” (Italy, Group 6) On the negative side: still elitist, not accessible to

everyone, expensive Mobility/ transport:

High speed:

o On the positive side, it shortens travelling time and

distances

“It takes 3 hours to go to Rome as opposed to 8; it’s more

convenient than flying” (Italy, Group 2)

On the negative side, it modifies the landscape,

reduced green areas and produced a significant

environmental impact

“The ‘No Tav’ people are the emblem of the fight

against the exploitation of the land and the

modifications resulting from it” (Italy, Group 6)

Energy/ environment (the two issues are closely connected)

Photovoltaic

o On the positive side, it enables increased energy

independence, cost reduction, and lower consumption

of traditional energy

On the negative side: it changes the landscape

and results in the loss of agricultural areas (e.g.

conversion of agricultural fields into photovoltaic

fields)

“When you go to Puglia or South Italy you see these

huge fields covered with photovoltaic panels, those

same fields used to be farmed and give people work”

(Italy, Group 4)

LPG fuel, electric cars

o On the positive side: they enable greater cost

effectiveness and reduce environmental pollution

On the negative side: higher initial cost (cars)

and, for electric cars, a project that is still at its

outset (because of economic interests?)

“Buying an electric car is an expense none of us can

afford yet, they say oil is going to run out but they all

keep selling cars running on gas” (Italy, Group 5)

IT, technological devices:

Smartphones, tablets, IPads, laptops

o On the positive side, they simplify operations that used to

require multiple tools; they have become essential in

everyone’s work as they are small and easy to carry

“With my IPad I can both play and work and I don’t need to

carry a heavy PC, even on the train or anywhere else” (Italy,

Group 3)


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On the negative side they create dependence, people

tend to abuse them, sometimes their being ‘trendy’

prevails over their actual usefulness

“I’m wonder if it’s really so essential to own an iPhone”

(Italy, Group 5)

Cell phones

o On the positive side: they have made communication

mobile, easier, removed physical barriers, and offer a wide

range of practical applications

“You used to have to stay at home to catch a phone call; you

were tied to a chord” (Italy, Group 6)

On the negative side they reduce privacy and create

dependence (you are always reachable)

“Even when you turn it off people get angry because

they get your voice mail and demand to know why”

(Italy, Group 5)

Digitalisation of information: EBooks, Mp3, Kindle

o On the positive side, it reduces the bulk of traditional

hardware

“You used to have to buy CDs, now you have Mp3 and you can

store 1000 of them on a small device” (Italy, Group 6)

On the negative side: it eliminates the sensory

pleasure provided by traditional physical objects

“To me a book is paper, it has its unique smell, beauty,

it’s irreplaceable” (Italy, Group 5)

Apps: e-commerce, e-banking

o On the positive side: they simplify life, optimise time

management and reduce costs

“You can do anything with Apps, banking, shopping, playing”

(Italy, Group 1)

On the negative side: they produce unemployment,

physical and mental laziness, loss of socialisation

“Banks are cutting personnel by half, many stores are

closing down, jobs are being lost” (Italy, Group 4)


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II. SPONTANEOUS PROJECTIONS ON TOMORROWS SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS

This chapter focuses on participants’ spontaneous predictions about the scientific

and technological innovations that could be part of daily life in 2030, which

changes are seen as beneficial and those seen as more negative or undesirable.

Finally, it looks at the scientific innovations in four selected areas:

How living at home will be different in the future;

how people will take care of their health;

how people will interact with each other and with machines;

and how people will protect the environment in 2030.

2.1 The scientific innovations expected to be part of peoples’ daily life in 2030 and their possible impact

Participants, particularly in the medium-low education target, show some

difficulty in projecting themselves in the future and envisioning

possible scenarios.

For this target there have been no great innovations except in the

wake of existing ones; they often mention already available

innovations.

Some of the older targets (a minority) claim that innovation is

bound to decrease over time rather than develop further.

“With the advent of IT I think innovations are over, the Internet was

the greatest revolution; I don’t think we can go much further than this”

(Italy, Group 5)

There was a generalised critical attitude, particularly across the younger

participants (both medium-high and low education) and older targets

(medium-low education), who focused on the negative aspects of

scientific and technological innovations rather than on any benefits

“I expect total dependence on technology and that’s not a good thing, if all

this happened in 10 years in another 15 it’s going to be even worse” (Italy,

Group 3)

Spontaneously mentioned innovations regarded the

mobility/automotive/transportation field, where the tendency is for

increasing automation such as to make man’s presence almost

unnecessary.

GPS Computers driving cars

Flying cars equipped with autopilot

Driverless public buses and subways

Self-braking or self-parking smart cars

o On the positive side, this will bring increased safety thanks to

software reducing human error; on the negative side, it will

cause humans to lose their central role and become nearly

subjugated to machines and technology.

“There will be benefits in terms of safety as well as lower

environmental impact, without oil other energy sources will be

less polluting” (Italy, Group 6)


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Secondarily they regarded the field of education, where participants expect a

scenario featuring reduced human interaction.

Automatic/virtual teacher: it will give remote lectures and check

homework.

“You upload your homework and it instantly checks it, the advantages

are immediacy and accuracy” (Italy, Group 6)

o On the positive side, education will reach weaker population

segments living far from cities or in high-risk areas; on the

negative side, it would take away the socialisation and

dialogue that are the foundation of proper psychological and

educational development.

“It would be helpful to make education more accessible but it

would revolutionise everything we are used to, the fun of school,

friendships, the figure of the teacher, I find it depressing” (Italy,

Group 6)

In an ideal scenario, technology should serve man and, most importantly,

be accessible to everyone regardless of social classes. In addition it should:

Be truly useful, offer actual benefits, simplify life and provide support

to the weakest segments of the population such as the elderly

and the disabled.

“It has to be useful, not just for everyday things but to meet the needs

of people who need help, I’m thinking of old people in homes or

disabled people who need assistance” (Italy, Group 6)

Provide increased safety in everyday life.

“It should reduce human error to a minimum, accomplish what humans

cannot” (Italy, Group 4)

Make man always an active part of the process: humans design

and program devices without being subjugated to or dependent on

them.

“Man will design and program devices to suit his needs, not the other

way around” (Italy, Group 3)

Lead to real cost reduction associated with environmental protection.

“The whole energy issue is important; I expect it to solve this

particular problem by offering sustainable costs and a lower

environmental impact” (Italy, Group 2)

Conversely, a disastrous scenario is one where people lose control and

human relationships, resulting in:

Man’s passiveness to machines.

“A Matrix-like scenario where even thoughts are controlled by

machines” (Italy, group 6)

De-humanisation: human relationships are replaced by virtual

interactions.

“I want human relationships, not interactions with a robot” (Italy,

Group 2)

Loss of socialisation: everything is done at home, people no

longer go out.

Loss of privacy: people lose control of their personal data

scattered across the web.

Unemployment: machines completely replace man (this is a

frequently mentioned theme across the younger target).

“A world full of machines is a world full of unemployed people”

(Italy, Group 1)

In addition, participants – particularly the younger target – expressed the belief

that technology will create an economic and social gap between those who can


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afford to access it (both in terms of knowledge and costs) and those who will be

barred from it.

“It’s still not clear whether, in the best of possible scenarios, all this usefulness

will be for everyone or just for the rich” (Italy, Group 5)

2.2 Expected innovations in selected areas

Homes and living

Package delivery by drones (spontaneously mentioned). On the positive side: an alternative form of transportation,

quicker and less polluting.

“I imagine drones delivering what you ordered on the Internet to

your door, maybe on the very same day, reducing road traffic”

(Italy, Group 5)

Home automation as built-in technology in all new buildings

(spontaneously mentioned).

In particular:

o House keys will no longer be necessary: replaced by iris

scanning (spontaneously mentioned) or fingerprint

recognition (spontaneously mentioned).

“Finally you won’t need to rummage in your bag for your

house keys, the house recognises you through a scanner

system” (Italy, Group 5)

o It will be possible to change the colour of the walls

based on one’s mood, through a sensor or a remote control.

On the positive side: usefulness, consumption

optimisation, simplification.

On the negative side: will it be accessible to

everyone?

Health and healthcare

Smartphone apps to self-diagnose diseases (spontaneously mentioned).

“You have this device, this box that gives you a health check-up based on

your needs, maybe with control lights indicating when something is wrong”

(Italy, Group 4)

On the positive side: usefulness, immediate diagnosis,

promptness in accessing the necessary treatment

On the negative side: anxiety, disruption of habits (in terms

of traditional doctors being the main source of advice).

“I wouldn’t feel safe not having a doctor readily available,

self-diagnosis is fine but doctors must stay” (Italy,

Group 4)


17

Ubiquitous communication and interaction

Hologram calls (spontaneously mentioned).

“Something that goes beyond video calls and doesn't require me to hold a

heavy screen in front of me, for example hologram video calls” (Italy,

Group 5)

Teleconferences, telework.

“It will be possible to work from home as a standard practice, it will be

normal, it would certainly be convenient but it would take away the social

side of work, coffee break with your colleagues” (Italy, Group 5)

Electrode-mediated telepathic communication systems.

“You can communicate without speaking, silently, the other person just

listens to the flow of your thoughts” (Italy, Group 5)

On the positive side: the possibility to communicate/be

everywhere without moving from home.

o On the negative side: loss of socialisation.

Environment

Hybrid cars (spontaneously mentioned).

Hydrogen-fuelled cars (spontaneously mentioned).

Electric cars (spontaneously mentioned).

Waste used as fuel (spontaneously mentioned).

Use of 100% recyclable materials (spontaneously mentioned).

Water systems preventing waste of water.

100% natural fertilisers and weed killers.

“I also expect technology to make food increasingly natural and healthy”

(Italy, Group 6)

Systems to reduce Co2 emissions.

Replace paper with eco-friendly materials.

“There will be no more paper in 2030, we won’t cut down trees anymore,

paper will be replaced by eco-friendly, recyclable materials” (Italy, Group

5)

On the positive side: greater environmental protection, reduced

pollution.

In analysed areas expected innovations proved more positive and able

to provide simplification, usefulness, environmental protection and

cost effectiveness.

However, as emphasised earlier the issue of ‘loss of socialisation’ was

deeply felt (particularly with regard to communication and interaction)

along with a possible social and economic gap (associated with energy

and home automation).


18

III. REACTIONS TO FUTURE SCIENTIFIC AND TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS IN SELECTED AREAS

The main objective of the study was to explore reactions to some specific

innovations that might be a part of everyday life for citizens in Europe in 15

years’ time in four different areas.

The house of the future (homes and living);

Health and healthcare;

Communications (ubiquitous communication and interaction);

The environment.

A scenario related to each theme and introducing possible innovations was

presented during the focus-groups.

This chapter focuses on participants’ reactions to the four scenarios.

3.1 Homes and living

Upon a first reading, impressions proved quite negative and/or

perplexed.

It called to mind a sci-fi world where man interacts and seems

to relate only to robots.

o Hence loneliness, coldness, sadness.

It conveyed a sense of intrusiveness, annoyance as someone

else decides and acts on your behalf.

o Making man passive as opposed to active.

o Taking away the pleasure of tending to one’s own things.

“The risk is that man’s brain becomes atrophied, he stops

thinking and gest used to not thinking” (Italy, Group 1)

Most frequently mentioned words:

Robocop, Terminator, sci-fi

Annoyance

Intrusive

Human deterioration

Excess

Upon the second (individual) reading, participants confirmed their

initial perplexities but also emphasised a number of positive aspects

which they had not previously considered:

The possibility for man to program and set the robot based

on his real needs: it’s not Pra making decisions; it’s the person

programming it.

“It’s true, it does everything, but it’s up to man to program it and

that’s the key word” (Italy, Group 2)

The concept of smart homes self-programming to optimise

consumption (cooling, heating, solar panels, etc.).

“Today it’s me commanding it from remote, in this scenario it will

do everything on its own, that’s all the better” (Italy, Group 4)


19

On the negative side dislikes included:

Pra for the way it looks.

o Large, bulky, invasive.

o Robotic, non-human appearance (the drawing had a strong

influence).

“My house is small and I wouldn’t like to have this huge thing

moving around, talking, bustling, it’s really badly made, it’s too

tall” (Italy, Group 1)

Pra for the way it behaves: it mimics human behaviour (makes

coffee, brings you breakfast in bed) as if people were/lived alone.

“A robot bringing me breakfast in bed? I find it terrible, as if I were all

alone and had no one to relate to!” (Italy, Group 2)

o It evokes loneliness, sadness, abandonment.

Man’s passiveness to a standard, unchanging programming.

“The robot practically decides and acts in man’s place, as if a person could

never change his mind or habits but it doesn’t work like that, I may want

something today and something else tomorrow” (Italy, Group 4)

It records everything that occurs inside the house and saves the data

on a server.

“It doesn’t just record everything that happens in my house, it saves this

information on a server where others can access it” (Italy, Group 1)

This was perceived as an absolute privacy violation as it occurs

inside one’s own house.

o Particularly if the data falls into the hands of third-party

companies.

The scenario emerged as realistic, as on one hand it is the natural

evolution of what is already happening (it’s home automation taken to

extremes, more advanced), and on the other hand it reflects the initial

fear for total, invasive technologisation.

“Of course it’s realistic, on one hand you have home automation which

already exists, and on the other hand you have a robot which also already

exists, only with less functions” (Italy, Group 4)

It’s not desirable but realistic.

The belief is that this scenario will be welcome by the new

generations, already used to making massive use of technology;

conversely, it will encounter strong opposition from older generations

(which both the younger participants and the older target identify

with), mainly due to cultural and psychological barriers:

“Maybe young kids will be fine with this situation, but for others it will be

sci-fi, annoying” (Italy, Group 2)

Both the younger participants and the older target felt distant

from this world and lifestyle.

o They disliked the idea of losing control and of de-

humanisation.

No innovation emerged as particularly surprising:

Pra just integrates existing devices/appliances: alarm clock,

tablet, programmable coffee machine, PDA, floor-cleaning robot, etc.

“What’s the big news? Pra is an alarm clock, a PDA, a tablet, etc.”

(Italy, Group 4)

o Helpful as it performs multiple functions, it provides help and

it’s programmable based on one’s needs.

Already existing innovations included:

o Windows with self-darkening glass.

o Solar panels and energy self-production.


20

o Smart power meters (standard in new houses).

Useful for energy efficiency, as it contributes to

reducing environmental impact.

o Recording everything that happens inside the house through a

burglar alarm remote control installed on smartphones.

“With my IPhone I can already check what’s happening inside

my house anytime” (Italy, Group 4)

Useful in terms of safety, to check on the house or

elderly family members; always controlled by the

owner (no dispersion of data).

“It’s helpful if you live with elderly family members and

you want to feel safer” (Italy, Group 4)

Quite new but already heard of:

o Drones (already spontaneously mentioned at the beginning).

Quite useless because they are just something extra, they

could be an alternative but it’s not viewed as a necessity.

Totally new:

o Fridge sensors.

Quite useful as a reminder if programmed correctly, in

a non-standardised way.

“I don’t want it to do the grocery shopping for me, I want to

be free to change, I don’t live by fixed patterns, but if it

reminded me to buy the staples that would be helpful” (Italy,

Group 2)

The only innovation that emerged as unacceptable is saving data on

an external server; from the way it is presented, it appears as a privacy

violation generating anxiety over the loss of control of personal,

private information.

Improvements: it should reassure people about having total

control.

“The server shouldn’t be external but inside my house and only I

should control it” (Italy, Group 4)

Overall ranking (in order of preference):

Coated glass automatically darkening to block out excess

sunlight.

Smart meters connected to smart power grids (the power

supply company monitors the exact power consumption: e.g.

the supplier applies a lower rate for power consumption in non-

peak hours...).

o On the positive side: maximum usefulness both in

terms of cutting energy costs and environmental

impact (consumption is reduced and optimised).

“They are the latest trend now, very helpful” (Italy,

Group 4)

These innovations already exist but are still

desirable, hence welcomed by everyone.

Customised help with house chores (cleaning, etc.):

particularly liked by the older target, not so much by the

younger participants.

o On the positive side: practical support, home help

whenever needed.

o On the negative side: de-responsibilisation, physical

laziness (both cultural and psychological barriers exist).


21

“It deprives me of the pleasure to do things, take care of my house,

I would feel set aside” (Italy, Group 1)

It may be improved only by limiting its functions and

restoring the importance of the added value brought by people

(the final touch, the last word, selective programming.)

“It helps, it’s something extra, it can help me but not replace me”

(Italy, Group 2)

Though it partially already exists, it would nonetheless be

accepted by people for its practical usefulness – particularly

by those with limited mobility, disabilities, and elderly people;

however, it may face cultural and psychological barriers from

traditionalist individuals.

“It could be really useful to people with physical problems, that’s

where it would be most helpful” (Italy, Group 4)

Personal robot assistant: (appointments, personal messages,

weather forecasts...): mainly liked by the older target, not so

much by the younger participants.

o On the positive side: practical use (it reminds you of

what you need to do, even fun).

“I live by myself and it would really be helpful, why not?”

(Italy, Group 4)

o On the negative side: de-responsibilisation, physical

and mental laziness, uselessness (again, cultural and

psychological barriers exist).

Improvable by making it better-looking, more

human and less robotised.

“If I really have to have one at home, at least don’t

make it look like a robot” (Italy, Group 2)

It would not be accepted by older and

traditionalist people as they would see it

as entirely useless (both cultural and

psychological barriers).

“People who are used to doing everything on

their own probably don’t want to be served

like that, they would feel ridiculous” (Italy,

Group 2)

Smart fridge notifying when food is running out.

o On the positive side: useful reminder.

o On the negative side: intrusive, useless.

Improvable by limiting its functions: for

example, notifying when specific kinds of food are

running out (as opposed to any food) without

automatically doing the grocery shopping.

“I don’t want it to do the grocery shopping for me,

I want to be free to change, I don’t live by fixed

patterns but if it reminded me to buy the staples

that would be helpful” (Italy, Group 4)

It may encounter barriers of a financial

(how much will it cost?) as well as

cultural and psychological nature from

older people.

“It also depends on the price, as usual

only few people will be able to afford it”

(Italy, Group 2)


22

It saves a complete record of what happens inside the house:

disliked.

o On the negative side: privacy violation, intrusive

Improvable by specifying the possibility to disable

the recording and setting a time limit after which the

information is destroyed.

“You can already do that with your cell phone but it

feels different, this is continuous recording, I want to

be able to choose whether I want it or not” (Italy,

Group 4)

It would not be accepted by people and would

encounter barriers, particularly of a legal

and psychological nature.

“People would feel spied inside their own

house, that’s terrible” (Italy, Group 1)

All data saved in the Robot’s memory is stored online on the

supplying company’s data servers (in the event of failures):

disliked.

o On the negative side: privacy violation, intrusiveness,

generates anxiety.

Improvable by saving the data on an external hard

disk located inside the house and accessible only

by the owner.

“The server shouldn’t be external but inside my

house and only I should control it” (Italy, Group 4)

It would not be accepted by people, it would

face legal and psychological barriers.

Home delivery by drones: disliked.

“I don’t see the use of it; it’s something unnecessary, useless” (Italy,

Group 1)

o On the negative side: useless.

Not improvable.

It would be accepted by new generations but

would face cultural barriers from others.

“It would feel like a sci-fi movie which you’re part

of but you don’t realise it” (Italy, Group 4)

Other ideas emerged in this area included:

A robot feeding pets.

An ironing robot with arms.

A robot acting as a bank consultant.

A robot selecting the cheapest stores to buy products that are

running out.

“If it knows my dietary habits it can look for supermarkets that

have the discounts I’m interested in” (Italy, Group 4)


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3.2 Health and healthcare

Upon a first reading, each target gave different evaluations:

Quite positive for the younger target, who emphasised its

practical use in preventing and treating diseases.

“It allows you to prevent diseases” (Italy, Group 2)

o They gave a general assessment without being influenced

by any specific part of the text.

Negative for the older target who felt upset, doubtful and

frightened by the scenario described.

“The idea that all my shopping is controlled terrifies and annoys

me; I want to be able to decide consciously” (Italy, Group 4)

o They were more influenced by a specific part of the text

(supermarket).

Most frequently mentioned words included:

Usefulness, effectiveness, solution (younger target).

Terror, anxiety, intrusion (older target).

Upon the second (individual) reading the older target’s evaluation

improved and partially aligned to the younger target’s view.

On the positive side, the following emerged:

The usefulness of having more information about what foods to

buy or (if any) avoid: dietary advice (younger target).

“It alerts you if you’re buying or abusing unhealthy food, it’s helpful

in terms of prevention” (Italy, Group 2)

Test accessibility and availability.

“Buying a test is as easy as buying a Coke, you go to the

supermarket and buy it along with the rest of your groceries,

everyone goes to the supermarket” (Italy, Group 1)

o A service for everyone, available to everyone.

Greater speed and ease in taking the test and getting a diagnosis.

“You waste no time, it’s all instantaneous” (Italy, Group 2)

“I like the possibility to have some kind of device to measure blood

glucose” (Italy, Group 4)

The opportunity to make your personal data available to

researchers and contribute to medical research.

“Your data doesn’t just sit there but is used for some real purpose;

science needs these kinds of things in order to do something

helpful for people” (Italy, Group 4)

o It is seen as like contributing together to the common good.

On the negative side, dislikes included the role of the supermarket in

this scenario as it lacks credibility when associated with the

institutionalism and authoritativeness of the medical and healthcare

field as a whole.

“I find it hard to imagine the supermarket where I do my grocery shopping

and which has economic interests to protect worrying about my health, I

can’t help thinking about a hidden agenda” (Italy, Group 4)

Areas of perplexity also emerged, particularly in the older target:

Stem cells: opinions are divided mainly over the ethical issue;

also, at present there is still little information about it,

including legal issues that still need to be clarified.


24

“I would need more information about it, storing a part of me to

use it a treatment later, I don’t know” (Italy, Group 4)

The possible connection between researchers and

pharmaceutical companies: the real purpose may turn out to be

profit as opposed to the common good.

“I work in the medical field and I know for sure that nothing is done

for nothing, there are always economic interests involved” (Italy,

Group 4)

The scenario was judged as realistic by the younger target, less so

by the old:

On one hand, it is the evolution of a process that is already in

progress: national healthcare records, insulin pens, and blood

glucose self-measurement devices already exist (younger target).

o On the other hand, the current state of the Italian

national healthcare system leaves little room to

imagination: the disparity between North and South

and the inadequacy of even basic healthcare services

make this scenario almost sci-fi-like when envisioning its

realisation in the near future (older target).

“Do you realise how serious the situation is in Italy?

Emergency rooms are overcrowded, people can’t even get

treatment and we’re talking telemedicine in 15 years?”

(Italy, Group 4)

Because of its unquestionable practical usefulness it would be welcome

by everyone.

Some psychological and cultural opposition from

traditionalists, who would prefer personal interaction with a

doctor, and from sceptics.

“There will always be people who want to go see their doctor,

interact with a person, this mentality will not be easy to uproot”

(Italy, Group 2)

Some innovations were viewed as surprising:

OTC genetic tests.

“That’s really new, I know for a fact that it takes months to take it

and get the results” (Italy, Group 4)

Biochips.

Home medical consultations.

o Useful for greater simplification and immediate use.

Others were less surprising as they already exist:

Centralised medical record (helpful nonetheless).

Dietary advice to prevent diseases (useful for the younger target,

useless for the old).

“It seems to me that today this information is available from

multiple sources, TV, magazines, doctors” (Italy, Group 1)

Stem cell therapy (useful):

Still under testing, hence it would be a big step forward.

“It’s still being studied; if it were a routine therapy it would

bring undeniable advantages” (Italy, Group 4)

No innovation emerged as unacceptable.

But supermarkets are not a credible resource in the medical

field.

“I’d be suspicious” (Italy, Group 1)


25


Centralised health data archive ("national healthcare

record") accessible only by patients and their physicians; the

data can also be used by researchers in anonymous form to

develop new drugs.

o On the positive side: useful as it gathers all of the

patient’s data and makes it accessible to his/her

physician at any time (this already exists); in addition,

it may help in terms of the research and development

into new drugs (this is the real innovation).

Improvable by ensuring data anonymity and

unbiased, not-for-profit medical research.

“They should also provide reassurance about

anonymity and the fact that there is no hidden

market agenda behind it” (Italy, Group 4)

It would be accepted by everyone due to

its practical usefulness.

Home medical consultation: the doctor provides

consultation/advice to the patient at home ("telemedicine").

o On the positive side: useful as it allows for quicker

diagnoses and benefits the weakest segments of

the population (people with limited mobility, elderly

people, etc.).

“Just think about the time it takes to get an appointment,

stand in line, pay your ticket, it would be a revolution”

(Italy, Group 4)

Improvable ensuring the physical presence of

a doctor whenever needed.

Accepted by everyone for its practical

usefulness; however, it could face

psychological and cultural barriers

from older people or those who are not

familiar with technological devices, for

whom the value of remote medical

consultation would not be credible.

“I certainly don’t see it used by an old lady

who doesn’t even know what a computer

is and who wants to stand in line at the

doctor’s office” (Italy, Group 2)

OTC genetic tests: mainly liked by the younger target;

the older target is more sceptical about reliability.

o On the positive side: the device is useful and easy to

use.

o On the negative side: not very credible in terms of

reliability if sold in supermarkets.

“I took a genetic test at S Matteo hospital in Pavia and I

can tell you it takes months for its complexity” (Italy,

Group 4)

Improvable by marketing it through more

reliable channels such as parapharmacies

(including those inside supermarkets).

“It would be much better if it were sold in

pharmacies or parapharmacies” (Italy, Group 1)


26

Though useful, it may encounter cultural

opposition from older and more

traditionalist people.

“People who have a long experience in life

would not believe this kind of thing” (Italy,

Group 4)

Stem cell therapy to repair organs: mainly liked by the

younger target.

o On the positive side: useful and absolutely innovative

(younger target).

o On the negative side: some perplexities from an

ethical point of view (older target).

“I would need more information about it, storing a part

of me to use it as treatment later, I don’t know” (Italy,

Group 4)

It may face cultural opposition for its

ethical implications.

Wearable biochip: mainly liked by the older target.

o On the positive side: usefulness and immediacy.

o On the negative side: invasive, annoying (younger

target).

“I don’t know, having this thing stuck on me all the

time…” (Italy, Group 2)

Not improvable.

No barriers, it would be accepted by

everyone.

Dietary advice to prevent diseases: mainly liked by the

younger target.

o On the positive side: additional information, helpful

(younger target).

o On the negative side: annoying, not new (older

target).

“I think at our age each of us knows what they can eat

and what’s good for them, I don’t need them to tell me”

(Italy, Group 4)

Not improvable

It may face psychological opposition from

older people who are already aware of

the most appropriate diet to follow.


A portable device to keep at home and run medical check-ups.

A robot for disabled/ill people: it monitors their vital signs at

home and constantly communicates them to healthcare

personnel.

Remote communication between hospitals located in different parts

of the world for ‘global’ consultations or diagnoses

“In case of difficult diagnoses, having the opportunity to consult a

doctor in some American hospital to get advice” (Italy, Group 4)


27

3.3 Ubiquitous communication and interaction

Upon a first reading, participants’ evaluations were mainly negative.

Due to the idea of intrusiveness and privacy violation.

Due to a sense of man losing control, resulting in total

passiveness to electronic devices.

“You feel inhibited, totally controlled” (Italy, Group 6)

o A minority underlined a few positive aspects.

Greater collective safety (older target).

“Interesting for the crime prevention issue” (Italy,

Group 5)

The usefulness of easier, real remote

communication (younger target).

“The whole thing about remote communication is

quite interesting” (Italy, Group 6)


Shock

Inhuman

Intrusiveness, privacy violation

Matrix, Police State

Control

Crime prevention (older target)

Citizen safety (older target)

Advanced communication (younger target)

Upon the second (individual) reading, everyone agreed with the

benefits initially emphasised by the minority.

On the positive side, the following emerged:

The topic of increased safety through constant monitoring:

though it limits individual privacy it’s nonetheless acceptable

provided the final goal is individual and collective safety.

“The thing is, if you want to control me for safety purposes that’s

fine, if that’s the goal then it’s for a good cause” (Italy, Group 3)

o Positive also for insurance purposes (older target).

“It’s the kind of control that lets you save money, and we all

know that frauds are a big problem for insurance companies”

(Italy, Group 6)

The possibility to communicate with distant people in a more

advanced, real way compared to traditional video calls

(younger target).

“It would be fantastic to call my family who live in the South and

see them in 3D; clearly I go visit them in person whenever I can”

(Italy, Group 3)

o But only for useful, necessary communication (for

example with distant friends and family) as opposed to a

generalised form of communication which would lead to

social isolation.

On the negative side, the following emerged:

The issue of privacy violation and human behaviour

manipulation applied to an area – sales – which offers no

benefits to people but only to companies.

“You lose your dignity as a person as well as your privacy just to

increase sales” (Italy Group 5)


28

o Although a minority in the older target (medium-high

education) appreciate its usefulness provided the goal is

increased cost-effectiveness.

“If it lets me save 50 euros I could accept it” (Italy, Group

6)

Mental laziness, loss of creativity and imaginativeness.

“The whole thing about suggesting a present for your friends is

absurd, it takes away even the pleasure of being thoughtful to

others” (Italy, Group 3)

Social isolation when virtual reality becomes a lifestyle (both in

private and business life).

“I imagine this form of communication is so invasive as to even

substitute human contact, that’s how it’s going to end up” (Italy,

Group 5)

It was deemed realistic because it deals with already existing

innovations.

It would be a further evolution of what already exists.

“I don’t find it so hard to believe, satellites already exist” (Italy,

Group 5)

Acceptance of this scenario by other people may differ based on the

innovations described:

No barriers with regard to the safety area.

“Anyone would be happy to feel safer” (Italy, Group 5)

Psychological and cultural barriers as regards virtual reality,

more acceptable for young people and less for older people.

Legal and psychological barriers as regards face recognition.

“This is a minefield, I’m not sure they can push it that far without

people’s consent” (Italy, Group 3)

No innovation emerged as surprising as they all already exist albeit in a

less advanced form:

Satellites/GPS to locate people.

o Recently introduced by insurance companies.

Surveillance systems in supermarkets and loyalty cards

collecting people’s purchases/preferences (to the aim of sending

them customised advertisement material).

“Loyalty cards are already collecting our data, we just don’t realise

it” (Italy, Group 6)

Video calls (Skype), remote classes (e-learning platforms).

In terms of usefulness, best-liked innovations included:

Virtual assistant.

“An information source would be very helpful since today in

museums or other attractions it’s hard to find someone to talk to or

give you a guided tour” (Italy, Group 6)

Satellites for control.

Holographic calls.

o They cover unmet needs and are instrumental to a specific

purpose (safety, information, remote communication, etc.).

Conversely, face scanning was deemed the least useful as it brings

real benefits to companies (whose goal is to increase sales) but not to

people (who are manipulated like puppets and induced to buy).


29

It’s also the most unacceptable as it is invasive of people’s

right to privacy and offensive to their intelligence (both

psychological and legal barriers).


Ubiquitous (=constant) monitoring of people and machines via

satellites, trackers and video cameras.

o On the positive side: ensured safety for both individuals and

communities; its scope of action is limited to public areas

and it never enters the private sphere.

“Satellites can’t look inside my house, they stay out and that’s

where I need safety, I’m free to do whatever I want inside my

own house” (Italy, Group 5)

No barriers emerged; it would be accepted by everyone.

Virtual reality in public areas.

On the positive side: useful, meets a need, offers an actual

benefit.


Virtual reality at home, holographic calls: mainly liked by the older

target.

On the positive side: it’s an advanced way to communicate

that overcomes the physical barriers created by distance and

makes interaction more real.

On the negative side: it could grow into a habit and

discourage real-life relationships (younger target).

“I’m very doubtful, I’m not sure how useful this is and more

importantly how negative the consequences may be” (Italy,

Group 3)

o Not improvable.

It would face cultural and psychological barriers

from older people used to relating to others in a

different way.

Virtual reality at work: mainly liked by the older target.

On the positive side: it optimises time management, reduces

costs (which in times of economic crisis are an important part of a

company’s budget).

“For example, this year we had a virtual Christmas party with the

other offices; we reduced travelling costs and still had a good time

together” (Italy, Group 6)

On the negative side: it isolates people from the social context,

it prevents socialisation.

o Not improvable.



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Virtual reality in schools:

On the positive side: greater access to education/training,

simplification.

On the negative side: loss of socialisation and jobs.

“Jobs are lost where machines are applied; also it would overturn

all our habits” (Italy Group 3)

o Improvable if designed as support/integration to the

traditional educational experience or just for specific

categories (for example working people).

It would mainly face psychological barriers from older

people.

Data collection on personal preferences:

On the positive side: economic advantage, tailored – as

opposed to general – offers.

“If the goal is giving me a real advantage and helping me, then I’m

favourable” (Italy, Group 6)

On the negative side: intrusiveness, privacy invasion (almost

harassment).

“I want to be free to look at whatever I want and behave however I

want” (Italy, Group 6)

o Improvable if individuals could choose if and when to be

sent text messages or other forms of communication.

“Once in Spain I turned on my Bluetooth and at that point I

could receive information about clubs in the area, it would

be much better that way” (Italy, Group 3)

It would encounter cultural and psychological

barriers from people using technology in a

traditional way.

Facial recognition technology: disliked by all target groups.

On the negative side: privacy invasion, uselessness, annoyance,

sense of exploitation.

o Improvable by applying this technology to other safety-

related areas.

“It should be used to prevent crime, to deny access to

people with a police or criminal record” (Italy, Group 3)

It would encounter psychological, cultural, legal

barriers.


Facial recognition at ATMs

Facial recognition in banks/public offices

A lie detector


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3.4 Environment

Right from the first reading evaluations were entirely positive.


Healthy world

Clean world

Environmental conscience

Recycling

Confidence

Well-being

Better world

Dream

On the positive side the following emerged:

The improved quality of life this kind of scenario may bring.

The dream of a truly environment-friendly, ideal, desirable

world.

“That’s what I hope for the future” (Italy, Group 3)

A sense of individual responsibility and an environmental

conscience paving the way for great progress for humanity.

“This would be the result of greater awareness and responsibility

about the environmental issue” (Italy, Group 6)

Living in harmony with the earth and the environment.

o Geo-engineering was judged negatively because it works

in the opposite direction to the one described in the

scenario.

Fertilising is associated with the use of chemical

substances and to an induced, unnatural process.

“When I fertilise I add things, chemical substances

and if I do that to the ocean, which has its own

ecosystem, the risk is very high and certainly not

natural” (Italy, Group 6)

Co2 storage is associated with a tank ready to

explode anytime: induces anxiety.

“Storage means putting away, but underground

storage is like sweeping dust underneath the carpet,

it’s going to come out like a bomb sooner or later, I

wouldn’t feel safe” (Italy, Group 5)

In addition, a number of unclear areas emerged:

The way probes work is unclear: do they generate

electromagnetic fields? How do they work? (older target).

“I’m thinking of electro smog, that’s not natural, like constant

radiation” (Italy, Group 6)

The idea of reducing the use of personnel, equipment: it means

creating unemployment.

“Again the problem is the loss of jobs, I don't like it” (Italy, Group

3)

The use of recycled building materials should be controlled and

certified in order to ensure safety and non-toxicity.

“How do I now if those recycled materials have asbestos in them?”

(Italy, Group 5)

Saying that raw materials are running out paints an apocalyptic

– as opposed to ideal – scenario (older target).


32

“If you write that raw materials are running out, that makes me

think of a critical situation rather than an ideal one” (Italy, Group

5)

There should be no more plastic: neither recyclable nor recycled.

“Plastic pollutes, it should be entirely taken out of the picture”

(Italy, Group 5)

Will it be an accessible scenario to everyone from an economic

point of view?

“Will everyone be able to experience this, or just the people who

have enough money for it? (Italy, Group 3)

The scenario was deemed realistic because the innovations involved

already partially exist; also, it would be the natural evolution of today’s

situation. However, it was also viewed as utopian due to the strong

opposition put up by major companies speculating on consumption, and

to Italy’s specific situation featuring a fragmented, unequal

environmental conscience between the north and south.

“Companies would never invest in these kinds of projects; it would

undermine their own interests” (Italy, Group 3)

“What we need is for everyone to be brainwashed, particularly in the south”

(Italy, Group 6)

It would be welcome by everyone because of its unquestionable

practical usefulness: it would be an ideal world.

Geo-engineering (in its two variants) and land monitoring were seen

as the two surprising innovations, but with some doubt about their

helpfulness:

In particular, geo-engineering was considered unacceptable

because it is against nature.

“It’s manipulation, it’s artificial” (Italy, Group 5)

o Everything else either already exists (solar panels, wind

farms, separate waste collection, double water system, and

waste conversion) or is in the final stages of development

(use of recycled materials).

Everyone agreed about their being very useful.


(Most energy is produce from) renewable energy sources

such as solar panels and wind farms + Energy efficiency:

energy-efficient houses and cities at accessible costs + waste

recycling.

o On the positive side: reduced consumption, reduced

environmental impact, energy saving, greater

environmental protection.

No barriers emerged; it would be accepted

by everyone.

Recycling of materials and natural resources (building

materials, water...).

o On the positive side: reduced waste, less pollution,

greater environmental protection, preservation of raw

materials.

“If I recycle everything, I don’t even need to look for

more raw materials, I can protect the environment”

(Italy, Group 6)


33

o On the negative side: they may contain harmful

substances for people and the environment.

Improvable by introducing a certification body

ensuring the quality of materials.

“There has to be some form of control and

certification, it should be a regulated field” (Italy,

Group 6)


by everyone.

Waste conversion into value-added sub-products (e.g. bio-

refineries turning agricultural waste into plastic and fuel).

o On the positive side: reduced waste, less pollution,

preservation of raw materials.

o On the negative side: the process may require non-

natural chemicals; plastic should no longer be used or

produced at all.

Improvable by explaining the naturalness of the

process.

“It should say that no solvents or chemicals are

used in the process” (Italy, Group 6)


by everyone.

New agricultural management practices (man’s interference

reduced to a minimum/crop and livestock monitoring via high-

resolution sensors and satellites).

o On the positive side: protection of the land and of

people’s health.

“We would feel confident about eating healthy, genuine food,

unlike what’s happening now in the Land of Fires in Naples”

(Italy, Group 5)

o On the negative side: probes may generate

electromagnetic fields.

“If they communicate with satellites they generate

radiations that undo the benefits of land control” (Italy,

Group 6)

Improvable by explaining that no electro smog is

created.


by everyone.

Underground Co2 storage: disliked

o On the negative side: anxiety-inducing, frightening, and

unsafe.

Improvable: eliminate or convert Co2 into something

else.

It would face psychological barriers.

Ocean fertilisation for Co2 absorption: disliked.

o On the negative side: associated with a chemical,

manipulative process whose results may affect the whole

ecosystem.

Improvable if applied to artificial basins of limited size.


34

“They could test it on artificial water basins to see what

happens” (Italy, Group 6)

It would face psychological barriers.


Sea water desalination


35

IV. CONCLUSION

At the end of the group discussion the majority of participants confirmed

the impressions initially collected, particularly in terms of the existence

of both pros and cons to scientific and technological innovations, as well as

a widespread scepticism.

On the positive side: practical and functional usefulness capable of

improving the quality of life in multiple areas.

On the negative side: man’s possible loss of control of

machines as well as increasing social isolation

With the exception of the environmental and health

scenarios, the remaining two displayed this sense of dualism.

Those who changed their mind negatively (a minority) were influenced by:

The issue of extreme control and privacy violation.

“I was upset about the control aspect, it’s pretty much everywhere” (Italy,

Group 6)

The feeling that the most useful, desirable innovations will also be the

most expensive ones, inaccessible to most.

“I confirm what I said at the beginning, in fact now I’m more certain about

it: who will be able to afford these innovations? (Italy, Group 3)

Those who changed their mind positively were influenced by:

A stronger belief in the fact that innovations can actually work in the

right direction (e.g.: environmental, health protection).

“If we are discussing dreams I’ll be happy to do it, some of the scenarios –

like the one about the environment – deserve strong interest” (Italy,

Group 6)

The knowledge that someone is actually thinking about it (and it’s not

just a dream).

“I like the fact that someone is actually thinking about it, that it’s not just

a dream to fantasise about” (Italy, Group 3)

Surprising ideas, particularly in the field of environmental protection

and medicine.

“I learned about new things I would never even have thought about, both

in terms of geo-engineering and medicine” (Italy, Group 6)

Having learned that the innovations discussed are the evolution of

existing ones, hence they are not completely unfeasible.

“Many things already exist, so why not?” (Italy, Group 5)

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