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    Interrelations Among PFM, Fiscal Policy andMacroeconomic Policy

    -Tarun Das, Macroeconomic Adviser, MOF.Gambia

    Formerly Economic Adviser, MOF, India

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    Budget preparation withoutLTFP/MTEF

    Eventually Alice realized that it matters agreat deal to know where to goand how toget there.

    The same lesson is true for any BudgetFormulation.

    Budget Preparation without Medium TermMacroeconomic Framework, Long Term FiscalPolicy and Medium Term ExpenditureFramework faces the same problem as that of

    Alice in Wonderland.

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    Contents of this presentation

    1. Policies versus reforms

    2. Objectives of economic reforms

    3. Broad categories of policies4. Stylized Policies and Reforms

    5. Requisites for Success of Reforms

    6. Concluding observations

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    1.1 What is policy or publicpolicy?

    Policy is defined as a purposive course ofaction followed by an agent or set of agents

    with a focus on public policy with theunderstanding that public policy is notrestricted to government.

    Public policy could be either national publicpolicy or global public policy.

    What makes policies public is not that they are

    adopted and implemented by the government,but that they affect the public interest.

    5

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    1.2 What is a reform? Reform means any fundamental change in the

    existing policy or in the institutions

    Institutions include laws, acts, regulations, rules andorganizations to implement policies.

    Routine or marginal changes in institutions or policiesmay not be called reforms. We need to have drastic,basic and fundamental changes.

    However, reforms need not be revolutionary.

    Reforms formulation requires a critical analysis, reviewand evaluation of the existing policies.

    This can be facilitated if there exists a researchdepartment or a policy window in a Ministry.

    6

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    2.1 Rationale and Purpose of Reforms

    Reforms are designed and implemented to(a) correct imbalances inSupply and Demand

    for:

    Output

    Employment

    Money supply

    Foreign exchange reserves

    Government finance, etc.

    (b) correct instability in the growth rate, prices,

    interest rate and exchange rates etc.

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    2.2 Core objectives of reforms

    To enhance productivity, efficiency andinternational competitiveness of different

    sectors of the economy

    To achieve sustained growth with price

    stability, fiscal sustainability, equity andsocial justice, and

    To impart dynamism to the overall growth

    process.

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    2.3 Desirable features of reformsa) Must Gradual, Step by Step, Evolutionary, not guided

    by a Big Bang Approach or Shock Therapy orRevolutionary Ideology;

    b) Must satisfy nationality constraint;

    c) Must satisfy regional/ international commitments

    (WTO, Environment, WB/IMF)

    d) Agency constraint (ideology of present govt.)

    e) General consensus by stakeholders

    f) Reforms must have a human face (least sacrifice by

    people in the transitional period).

    g) No reforms can succeed unless we are able to makethe people march along with us.

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    3.1 Broad categories of policies

    Macroeconomic

    1.Fiscal policy

    2.Monetary policy

    3.Trade/Tariff policy

    4.Financial policy5.Wage & price policy

    6.Policies to deal withany component of the

    NAS identityY = C+I+ST+X-M

    Sectoral

    1.Agriculture policy

    2.Industrial policy

    3.Energy policy

    4.Transport policy5.ICT policy

    6.Banking policy

    7.Education policy

    8.S&T, R&D policy

    9.Environment policy

    10

    i k li i

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    3.2 Macroeconomic Framework & policies

    Accounting identities

    Strong accounting relationships

    NATIONAL A/C & REAL SECTORS

    Private consumptionGeneral government consumption

    Private investmentGeneral government investment

    Exports of goods and nonfactorservices

    Imports of goods and nonfactorservices

    National Accounts

    EXTERNAL SECTOR

    Balance of Payments

    CURRENT ACCOUNT Exports of goods and nonfactor

    services Imports of goods and nonfactor

    servicesFactor services (net)

    Transfers (net)Official Private

    CAPITAL ACCOUNTDirect investmentMedium/long-term capital (net)Short-term capital (net)

    Overall balanceChange in net foreign assets

    CENTRAL GOVERNMENT

    Revenues Grants

    Expenditures Current

    CapitalOverall balanceFinancing

    Domestic financing (net) Banking system

    Nonbanking sector External financing (net)

    Net foreign assets

    Banks' reserves

    Net domestic assets: Net credit to central govt.

    Credit to private sectorOther items (net)

    Liabilities to monetaryauthorities

    Private sector deposits

    Monetary Authorities

    Deposit Money Banks

    MONEY & FINANCIAL SECTORS

    Net foreign assets

    Net domestic assets: Net credit to central govt. Credit to banks

    Other items (net)

    Reserve money

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    3.3 Broad Categories of IMF Policies

    Macro stabilization policies and structuraladjustment policies/ reforms .

    Macro Stabilization policies aim at reducingmacro economic imbalances by attacking(reducing) demand.

    Structural adjustment policies aim atincreasing supply by improving efficiency &productivity and ensuring fair allocation ofresources among various sectors.

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    3.4 These Policies Encompass

    Macro

    StabilizationPolicies

    Fiscal policies

    Monetary policies

    Tariff policy

    Exchange rate

    policy

    Wage-income-pricepolicies

    Structural Reforms PFM Reforms Governance Reforms Legal Reforms Institutional reforms Financial sector reforms Factor market reforms

    - Land, Labor, Capital External trade and

    investment reforms Reforms in agriculture,

    industry & infrastructure

    Public sector reforms Social sector reforms Environment reforms

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    3.5 Definition of Fiscal Policy

    Fiscal policy includes the taxation andexpenditure policies of the govt, whichare normally implemented by the MOF.

    The basic objective is to maintainmacroeconomic stability, to boost

    savings, investment, employment andgrowth.

    Other objective is to attain fairerdistribution of wealth and other social

    goals through desirable tax structureand expenditure allocation for differentsectors.

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    3.6 Definition of Monetary Policy

    Monetary policy refers to the regulation of

    money supply and interest & exchange rates. It is implemented by the Central Bank as the

    regulator for the financial sectors and theprimary dealer of treasury bills.

    Since government borrowing is influenced byfiscal policies, there is strong linkages betweenmonetary and fiscal policies.

    It may not be advisable for a Central Bank toassume that they are completely independent

    of the Ministry of Finance.

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    3.7 Macroeconomic Policy The thrust of the macroeconomic policy is

    not only macroeconomic stability, but also

    to attain inter-sectoral, inter-regional andinter-generational equity.

    In addition to fiscal and monetary policies,macroeconomic policies include many otherpolicies which are required to sustain high

    economic growth with moderate inflationand stability in interest and exchange rates.

    Macroeconomic policies also include povertyalleviation and employment generationprograms.

    Above all they include policies to boostsavings and investment and to attainbalanced sectoral and regional growth.

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    Output Budgeting Session-2 by Tarun Das 17

    .systems, methods, procedures andinstitutions at every stage of budgetcycle

    StrategicPlanning

    BudgetPreparation

    Budget

    ExecutionAccounting

    Auditing/

    Reporting

    Monitoring

    Evaluation

    PFM

    REFORMS

    4 1 Exact Scope of Reforms

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    4.1 Exact Scope of ReformsDepend on

    a) Socio-economic-political contextb) Agency constraint- ideology of present govt.

    c) How far have we progressed in reforms?d) Where do we want to go?e) How to prioritize, sequence these reforms with what

    speed and intensity?f) What are their likely impact on economic growth,

    inflation, employment and poverty?

    g) What is our role and capacity in the implementation ofthese reforms?There does not exist a universal and unique set ofreforms which holds good for all countries at alltimes. Reforms cannot be blindly imported from

    other countries and must be owned by a country.

    4 2 St li d Fi l P li i d

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    4.2 Stylized Fiscal Policies andReforms

    a) Sector-neutral fiscal policiesb) Reduction/ rationalization of taxes and dutiesc) Putting limits on fiscal deficit/ primary deficitd) Medium Term Fiscal Policye) Widening tax base & enhancing tax buoyancyf) Simplifying rules and procedures for taxesg) Strengthening tax administrationh) Strict expenditure controli) Effective cash management

    j) Introduction of VATk) Introduction of Fringe Benefits Tax, Cash Transactions

    Tax, Securities Transactions Tax, Service Tax,Minimum Alternative Tax

    l) Phasing out of tax holidays for SEZs

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    4.3 Stylized Monetary/ FinancialPolicies

    a) Introduction of inflation targeting.b) Sector-neutral monetary policies

    c) Developing capital, bond, debt marketsd) Introducing Basle norms for capital adequacy

    ratio and non-performing assetse) Modernization and liberalization of insurance,

    pensions and provident funds

    f) Market determined deposit, lending & TB yieldsg) Liberalization on the entry of foreign banksh) Abolition of directed lending by the govt.i) Reforms and setting up regulatory bodies for

    Insurance, Savings, Provident , Pension Funds

    j) Introducing innovative financing schemes such asBOT, BOOT, BOLT etc. for infrastructure

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    4.4 Industrial Policy

    Abolition of licenses and physicalrestrictions on industry

    Corporatization or privatization of Stateregulated monopolies of public utilities andtrade

    Setting up independent regulatoryauthorities for key sectors

    Open door policy for foreign directinvestment and technology transfer

    Acts enacted on consumer rights, IPR,independent regulatory authority Outdated Companies Act replaced by

    Competition Act

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    4.5 External sector Policy

    Abolition of licenses and physicalrestrictions on trade

    Foreign investment policy Import substitution policies replaced by

    export promotion policies Sector-neutral tariff policies Abolition of foreign exchange control, Full convertibility of currency on current

    account

    Almost full convertibility of capitalaccount for non-residents

    Market determined exchange rates

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    4.6 Other MacroeconomicPolicies

    Decentralization of planning,

    Sound institutional framework, Civil services reforms Liberalization of labor markets and

    laws

    Land reforms National Environment Policy National Population Policy National Transport Policy

    National Energy Policy National Agriculture Policy National Education policy National Health Policy

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    4.7 Scope and Purpose of PFMReforms

    Enhance fiscal discipline and accountability,

    Strengthen operational systems andmethodology for budget preparation,execution, accounting, auditing, reporting,monitoring and evaluation

    Improve public finance management

    systems Improve procurement systems for govt. Modernizing budget information system Review institutional and legal framework

    and acts for public finance management Improve forecasting techniques for budget

    planning and financial planning Improve techniques for asset/ debt/ aid/

    project management.

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    4.8 Stylized Public FinanceReforms

    Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management(Budget Honesty) Act

    Expenditure control and MTEF Medium Term Financial Planning Improved systems and methods for asset/ debt/

    aid/ project management Setting up Contingent Liability Fund Upgrading inspection, internal/external audit

    Improving audit and accounting system Coordinating fiscal reforms at local govts Setting up Privatization Commission/ Dept. Setting up an independent Public Debt office Rationalization of user charges for public utilities,

    public goods and services

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    4.9 Stylized Public FinanceReforms

    Strategic Business Plans for Budgetary

    Bodies Modernizing Budget preparation Introduction of Program Budgeting,

    Performance Based Output Budgeting,Zero Based Budgeting etc.

    Introduction of IFMIS Modernizing Accounting System Introduction of Accrual Accounting International best practices on auditing Introduction of performance auditing in

    addition to financial compliance auditing Strengthening ICT for budget

    preparation, implementation, monitoring,review and performance evaluation

    5 1 P i it f S f l

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    5.1 Prerequisites for SuccessfulReforms

    a) To break the nexus among vested interests

    so that reforms can be implemented,b) To reorient the role of public policies,

    c) To change the mind-set of bureaucrats,

    d) To redefine the role of government,

    e) To develop fair and efficient markets,

    f) To build up efficient institutions,

    g) To involve all stakeholders in the process of

    reforms from the very beginning

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    5.2 Reorientation of Public Policies

    a) To create enabling environment for public-private partnership

    b) To link fiscal incentives to productivity

    c) To create fiscal space for growth

    d) To streamline public investment

    e) To make development and growth inclusive,f) To repair market failures

    g) To strengthen structures and institutions

    h) To put emphasis on consultations, flexibility,decentralization, selectivity, outcomes, outputs,implementation, monitoring, evaluation and co-ordination of policies

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    5.3 Redefining the role of Bureaucracy

    There is need for a distinct change ofmind set of the government officials atall levels from top to bottom:

    a)From a controller to an enabler

    b)From a supplier to a facilitatorc)From an operator to a policy makerd)From a regulator to a trustee of social

    equity and environmental sustainability

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    5.4 Redefining the role of govt.a) Emphasis is on the so-called LPG- Liberalization,

    Privatization and Globalization

    b) Both well governed state and well functioningmarkets are essential for high growth andsustainability.

    c) Government and free markets shouldsupplement and complement each other.

    d) Good Governance requires strengthening independent

    judiciary, Free Press, NGOs.

    e) Government to withdraw from sectors whereprivate participation is more productive

    f) But, scope of govt. to remain large in socialsectors and infrastructure.

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    5.5 Markets and Institutions

    a) Efficient markets are essential for rapid and

    successful economic development.b) But the real markets are neither competitive

    nor perfect. Governments role is to correctmarket imperfections and repair market

    failures by strengthening institutions.c) Institutions play an important role indeveloping fair, competitive, inclusive,efficient, and integrated markets.

    d) Institutions are also essential for implementingand evaluating public policies.

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    l f bli

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    5.6 Role of PublicInstitutions

    Success of reforms requires solid public

    institutions:

    a) To protect property rights,

    b) To regulate market agents,

    c) To maintain macro-economic stability,d) To ensure social equity and justice,

    e) To provide social safety nets,

    f) To resolve conflicts.

    All these help in reducing transactions costs,encourage work efforts, and provideincentives for fair competition.

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    5 7 B ildi Effi i t

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    5.7 Building EfficientInstitutions

    a) Institution building is diverse involving allstakeholders viz. legislature, judiciary,government, bureaucrats, policymakers,corporate bodies and civil society.

    b) It is an evolutionary and cumulative process,and requires open mind by all stakeholders to

    accept new ideas and innovations, to haverespect for each other and to reward merits.

    c) Most of the institutions that support marketsneed to be developed by the government forregulating, stabilizing and legitimizing theirscope and functions.

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    5.8 Implications for Govt. Officials

    a) Knowledge and ICT are now the most valuableassets of a budgetary entity

    b) Risk Management is an important task.

    c) Other important tasks are forecasting,

    modeling, monitoring and evaluationd) Emphasis on decentralization, multi-

    stakeholders consultation, risk sharing, jointresponsibility and accountability

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    6.1 Concluding Remarks

    a) In recent years the Gambia has made

    significant progress of reforms in fiscal andfinancial sectors.

    b) The proposed Public Finance Reforms are inthe right direction.

    c) Carried to their logical ends, these reformswould make the Gambia as one of the mostdynamic economies of Africa within next fiveyears.

    d) All of us will have to play a distinct role in thatexciting process of reforms management.

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    Thank you

    Have a Good Day