public debt management in south africa oecd workshop phakamani hadebe deputy director-general: asset...
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PUBLIC DEBT MANAGEMENT IN SOUTH AFRICA
OECD Workshop
Phakamani Hadebe
Deputy Director-General: Asset and Liability Management
25 March 2004
2
Content
1. Macro economic overview
2. Fiscal policy trends
3. Debt management
4. Challenges
5. Conclusion
4
10 years of democracy
1984-1993 1994-2003
•Growth a mere 1% a year •Growth around 3% a year
•Investment shrinks 2,9% a year
•Investment expands 4.7% a year
•Inflation averages 14,3% •Inflation down to <6%
•Deficit up to 7,2% in 1993 •Deficit down to around 3%
•Financial account cumulative outflows = R46,1 bn
•Financial account cumulative inflows = R169,6bn
•Investment boycott •Ratings upgrades
5
Medium-term outlook
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Real GDP growth
Current account balance
CPIX
Estimate
Projection
• South Africa is expected to grow at around 2.9% in 2004 3.6% in 2005 and 4.0% in 2006
6
NOFP has been eliminated …US$ Billion
(January 1994 to December 2004) 4.8
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10Ja
n-94
Jul-9
4
Jan-
95
Jul-9
5
Jan-
96
Jul-9
6
Jan-
97
Jul-9
7
Jan-
98
Jul-9
8
Jan-
99
Jul-9
9
Jan-
00
Jul-0
0
Jan-
01
Jul-0
1
Jan-
02
Jul-0
2
Jan-
03
Jul-0
3
8
Fiscal evolution 1990 to 2006
-12.00%
-10.00%
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
1991/9
2
1992/9
3
1993/9
4
1994/9
5
1995/9
6
1996/9
7
1997/9
8
1998/9
9
1999/0
0
2000/0
1
2001/0
2
2002/0
3
2003/0
4
2004/0
5
2005/0
6
2006/0
7
Budget deficit
Primary balance
Democratic government
Projection
9
large efficiency gains in revenue have allowed
expenditure to increase
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
45019
94/9
5
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
R'b
illio
n
Total Revenue
Total Expenditure
10
Prudent fiscal policy has led to falling public debt as % of GDP …
39
49.5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
R b
illi
on
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Per
cen
tag
e
Foreign debt
Domestic debt
Total debt as % of GDP
11
Falling public debt release more funds for spending
21.5%
19.2%
16.8%17.6%
18.9%
21.2%20.6%
14.3%13.7% 13.3% 13.2%
21.5%
22.7%23.2%
22.4%23.3%
23.8%
15.8% 15.5%15.0%
14.7%
19.8%
18.1%
16.1%
20.4%
19.3%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
26%
1994/95 1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99 1999/00 2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07
Debt service cost % of revenue
Debt service cost % of expenditure
12
Prudent debt management leads to lower debt service
cost (% of GDP)
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%19
94/9
5
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
14
POLICY DEVELOPMENTS DEBT MANAGEMENT…
• Pre 1980 secondary market non-existent
• Debt issued on an open-ended tap basis - SARB
• Debt stand still agreement in 1985 – refinancing
problems
• First debt consolidation in 1989
• Prescribed Asset Requirement Act abolished -
1989
15
POLICY DEVELOPMENTS DEBT MANAGEMENT…
• Bond Exchange of South Africa licensed in 1996
• Pre 1998 Focus on smoothening the maturity profile
• 1997/1998 Asian financial crisis
• Development of the domestic capital markets
• Reduction of debt service costs & Risk management
• Active debt management
16
DEVELOPMENTS IN THE DOMESTIC MARKET
• CHANGE IN HIERARCHY OF DEBT MANAGEMENT OBJECTIVES
• PRE-1999:
• Primary Objective:
- Market Development considerations
• Secondary Objective:
- Maintain creditworthiness and - Promote a balanced maturity structure
17
DEBT MANAGEMENT OBJECTIVES
Post 1999
Primary Objective
– Minimising cost of debt subject to acceptable risk levels
Secondary Objectives
– Ensure government access to financial markets
– Diversification of funding instruments
18
Public sector borrowing requirement…
5.06%4.80%
4.31%
3.37%
2.07%
1.32%
1.93%
1.24%1.12%
3.10%
3.47% 3.35%
2.82%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
1994/95
1995/96
1996/97
1997/98
1998/99
1999/00
2000/01
2001/02
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
2006/07
Per
cent
age
of G
DP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
R'B
illio
n
Borrowing requirement (actual amount)Borrowing requirement as a % of GDP
20
Government debt is the backbone of a highly sophisticated domestic debt
capital market
• Total debt US$ 63,7 billion projected in 2003/04, with turnover of over US$ 2 trillion
• Active debt management programme incorporating:– Debt consolidation (switches)– Buy-backs– Inflation-linked bonds– Strips
Net domestic long term borrowings
18.2
3.0
6.4
-11.1
-6.9
18.9
27.3
23.7
32.6
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
R'B
illio
n
Projection
21
ACTIVE DEBT MANAGEMENT RATIONALE
• Enhance liquidity across yield curve
• Restructure maturity profile
• Reduce fragmentation on the yield curve
• Manage inflation expectations
22
DOMESTIC CAPITAL MARKET REMAINS ROBUST….
– 1997 Annual turnover was R3.4 tn
– 2000 Annual turnover was R9.8 tn
– 2001 Annual turnover was R11.6 tn
– 2002 Annual turnover was R11.7 tn
– 2003 Annual turnover was R10.7 tn
23
Funding instruments fully diversified….
Instrument % ContributionTreasury Bills 8.3%Variable rate bond 2.1%Fixed income bonds 77.6%CPI Linked bonds 8.4%TOTAL 100.0%
24
STRIP PROGRAMME OF DOMESTIC
BONDS
BondStripped amount
Reconstituted amount
Total (As at 2004/03/16)
R'Million R'Million R'MillionR 150 48 24 24 R 153 1,000 - 1,000 R 157 5,541 3,261 2,280 R 186 300 - 300 R 194 3,000 - 3,000
Total 9,889 3,285 6,604
25
Domestic bond yield curve…
8.99.3 9.4 9.6 9.5
8.8
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
11.00
2005 2008 2010 2014 2015 2025
R 150 R 194 R 153 R 201 R 157 R 186
Maturity and bond code
17-Mar-04
26
Established CPI-linked bond yield curve
R 1.5
R 8.8
R 1.6
R 14.4
3.97%
3.85%
3.94%
3.96%
3.78%
3.80%
3.82%
3.84%
3.86%
3.88%
3.90%
3.92%
3.94%
3.96%
3.98%
2008 2013 2023 2033
R 198 R 189 R 197 R 202
Yiel
d
R 0
R 2
R 4
R 6
R 8
R 10
R 12
R 14
R 16
Nom
inal
am
ount
(R'B
illio
n)
Nominal amount issued
CPI-linked bond yield curve
27
Foreign bond yield curve…USA
2.8%
4.0%
4.8%
5.8%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
2006 2009 2012 2017
Maturity
Europe
2.4%
3.0%
3.9%
5.3%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
2004 2006 2008 2013
Maturity
28
Consolidated maturity profile…
0
20
40
60
80
100
120R
bill
ion
State Owned Entities foreign debt
State Owned Entities domestic debt
Government foreign debt
Government domestic debt
29
South Africa: solid investment grade credit
1994 2004 1994 2004Fitch BBB A- BB BBBMoody's Ba1 A2 Baa3 Baa2Standard and Poors BBB+ A/A-1 BB BBB
Local currency rating Foreign currency rating
31
CHALANGES…..• Dematerialisation of money market instruments
• Strive for same day settlement (T+0)
• Shorten the book close period
• Continue the splitting of 3-legged instruments
• Increased spending on social development,
infrastructure and health