NOAA/NWS Binghamton, NY Flash Flood Potential from Arthur’s Moisture

Thursday/Thursday Night 9:30 a.m. July 3rd , 2014

Warning Coordination Meteorologist: David Nicosia

FOR CENTRAL NY This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Syracuse, Utica, Ithaca, Elmira, Binghamton, and Oneonta.

FOR NORTHEAST PA This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Towanda, Montrose, Scranton, and Wilkes-Barre.

This Briefing applies to the NWS Binghamton

Service Area only:

Hazards • Flash Flood Potential Today is the primary hazard.

– Flash Flood Watches in effect until this evening all of our central NY and northeast PA counties.

– Tropical moisture streaming northward from Arthur will interact with a frontal boundary that will slowly work east today.

– This front will be the focus for very heavy rain that could cause localized flash flooding.

• A few thunderstorms that develop could produce locally damaging winds and hail too.

• The track of Tropical Storm Arthur will remain well east of central NY and northeast PA. – Not expecting a widespread heavy rainfall directly from

Arthur.

• Therefore no flooding is expected on our larger river systems at this time.

Tropical Storm Arthur Track

Water Vapor Satellite 9:00 AM

Arthur

Tropical Moisture from Arthur

Flash Flood Watch

Showers and thunderstorms will develop again across central NY and northeast PA as a cold front works slowly east today. Timing: • Early to mid afternoon across the Finger Lakes to Upper

Mohawk Valley. • Late afternoon to the evening across northeast PA, southern

tier of NY to the Catskills. Arthur will enhance the moisture available to storms leading to the potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding where thunderstorms persist the longest. Flash Flood Watch in effect until late evening.

Areas that saw heavy rainfall yesterday will be more

susceptible to flash flooding.

Rainfall(inches) from yesterday’s storms

1/2 to 2 inches

3 to 5 inches

Threshold Rainfall (inches) to begin Flash Flooding in

1 hour.

Threshold Rainfall (inches) to begin Flash Flooding in

3 hours.

Severe Thunderstorm Risk Today

Today

• Approaching cold front will produce scattered thunderstorms • First in the Finger Lakes to Mohawk Valley Noon to 4 pm. • Late afternoon to evening farther southeast into central NY/Catskills

and northeast PA. • Primary threat is for damaging winds. Hail is also a possibility.

Best chance for strong to isolated severe thunderstorms here

Summary

• Localized flash flooding possible from this afternoon to tonight with any thunderstorms that form.

• Some thunderstorms could produce locally damaging winds and hail.

• Arthur is projected to remain well east of our area and not directly impact us.

• Not expecting a widespread heavy rain that will cause problems on our larger rivers.

Monitor Conditions!

• Continuous updates: http://weather.gov/bgm

• National Hurricane Center: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

• Storm Prediction Center

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

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