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PTT NDR Hongkong - Malaysia
20 – 22 July 2016
Overview
Performance
2016 Outlook
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
Contents
1
Indigenous (22%)
Imported Refined Petroleum Products 75 KBD
953 KBD (**)
Source: PTIT
Remark : (*)Refined product from refineries = 952 KBD, including domestic supply of LPG from GSPs and Petrochemical Plants = 106 KBD
(**) Not included Inventory
KBD = Thousand Barrels per day
Import (78%)
Crude/ Condensate846 KBD
RefinedProducts1048 KBD*
Domestic
Crude/ Condensate 258 KBD
Supply Production Sales
Export
187 KBD
Oil Balance Thailand: Jan –Mar 2016
279 KBD
Adequate refining capacity maintains the stability of supply
Total Refining Capacity in Thailand: 1,097 KBD
PTT’s Associated Refineries : 635 KBD
(TOP, PTTGC, IRPC)
Other Refineries : 462 KBD(SPRC, ESSO, BCP)
RefinedProducts166 KBD
2
Crude Export 21 KBD
921 KBD
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
Natural Gas Balance: Jan – Mar 2016
Gulf of Thailand (72%)
Power (60%)
Industry (14%)
NGV (6%)
Petrochemical Feedstock
(12%)
IndustryHousehold
Transportation(8%)
Ethane/ Propane/LPG/NGL
LPG/NGL
Remark: MMSCFD = Million Cubic Feet @ Heating Value 1,000 Btu/ft3
Main driver of the Thai economy
Supply Production Sales
LNG30%
Myanmar70%
Bypass Gas847
MMSCFD
884 MMSCFD (20%)
Methane 1,646 MMSCFD
Onshore (3%)
146 MMSCFD
6 GSPsTotal Capacity
2,740 MMSCFD @ Actual Heat
Import (25%)
1,141 MMSCFD
3
Chevron,
28%
PTTEP,
30%
Others,
42%
3,377 MMSCFD
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
Largest company on Thai Stock exchange
Market cap ~US$50.0bn1 or ~ THB 1.8 trillion
Group companies: 12.8%1 of Thai Stock Exchange market
capitalization
Majority owned by Thai government (66%)
51% by Ministry of Finance
15% by Vayupak Fund
Fully integrated and highly diversified over the entire O&G
value chain
International exploration and production business with 738
mmboe of proved reserves in 2015
Sole operator and owner of gas transmission pipelines and
GSPs in Thailand
Largest refinery group in Thailand with stakes in 3 of 6
refineries in the country
Largest petrochemical producer group in Thailand with
stakes in 6 of 8 major petrochemical plants
Leading oil marketing business with 1,458 retail stations
and 40%2 of market share by volume
International oil trading business having traded 81.3 bn
liters3 in 2015
Coal business assets in Indonesia, Madagascar, and
Brunei
New Power Flagship (GPSC) to capture opportunity in
neighboring ASEAN countries
81%
142%
19%
-42%
2001 2015
Revenue
Net Income
PTT
Affiliate
702 58019%
IPO
1 As of 30 June 2016 : Avg. BOT selling rate USD/THB of 35.342 As of 31 March 20163 For the year 2015
PTT Public Limited Company (“PTT”) Robust revenue and Net Income growth since IPO (MMUSD)
12,553
58,922
International and local recognition
Thailand best borrower award
2014Best CEO
Best CFO
Best Managed Company
Best Corporate Governance
Best Investor Relations
Best Corporate Social
Responsibility
Best Commitment to Strong
Dividend Policy
SET Awards
Top Corporate
Governance Report
Award 2010 & 2011
Best Corporate Social
Responsibility Awards
2011 & 2012
93rd Fortune Global
500 in 201584th in 2014
81st in 2013
95th in 2012
Platts Top 250 Global Energy
Company
24th Overall Global
Performance in Asia of 2014
180th in 2014144th in 2013
167th in 2012
171th in 2011
Dow Jones Sustainability
Index (DJSI)
DJSI Member 2013-2014
(Listed in 2011)
4
PTT is Thailand’s Largest Energy Company
CAGR -1%
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
Ministry of Finance holds majority stake in PTT PTT ratings at Thai sovereign level
Thai Ministry of Finance
51%
VayupakFund1
15%
Public 34%
Kingdom of Thailand –FC
Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ A-
PTT – FC Baa1 BBB+ BBB+ A-
PTT – LC Baa1 BBB+ A- A
Largest market cap on the Thai Stock Exchange
Note: As of March 2016
• Foreign 15%
• Thai 19%
PTT PTTEP PTTGC TOP IRPC GPSC Total Others
Market cap (BNUSD)2 25.3 9.4 7.6 3.5 2.8 1.4 50.0 340.3
% of SET 6.5% 2.4% 1.9% 0.9% 0.7% 0.4% 12.8% 87.2%
Moody’s rating Baa1 Baa1 Baa2 Baa1 Ba1 N.A. - -
S&P rating BBB+ BBB+ BBB BBB BB+ N.A. - -
PTT’s Strategic Importance to Thailand
5
1 The Vayupak Fund is a registered investment management fund in Thailand in which the Government is a major unit holder. The Government has rights of first refusal with respect to
any of our shares to be sold by the fund. Although the fund’s shareholding may be considered to be beneficially owned by the Government under international standards, such shares
are not considered to be owned by the Government for the purposes of Thai law or our compliance with certain of our debt covenants 2 As of 30 June 2016 : Avg. BOT selling rate USD/THB of 35.34
5
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
Our Major Businesses & Activities
E&P
Gas
PTTEP 65.29% Exploration and Production
Upst
ream
Oil Marketing
Int’l Trading
Dow
nst
ream
Petrochemical
& Refining
PTTGC 48.91% Petrochemical Flagship
TOP 49.10% Refinery Flagship
IRPC 38.51% Integrated Refinery & Petrochemical
Infr
ast
ructu
re
Coal
GPSC 22.58% Power Flagship
• Oil Marketing 100% Retail service Stations and commercial Marketing
• Int’l Trading 100% Import/Export/Out-Out trading of petroleum and
petrochemical products
Inte
rmedia
te PTT PLC
• Gas Pipeline 100% Sole owner/operator of the Transmission pipeline
• S&M 100% Supply & Marketing of Natural Gas
• GSP 100% Extracting Hydrocarbon contents in NG for Petrochemical’s feedstock
6
Business Areas ActivitiesCompany PTT’s holding (%)
6
PTT Energy Resources 100% Coal Business
Power
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
PTT AspirationStrategic direction and target to achieve “Big-Long-Strong” aspiration
“Thai Premier Multinational Energy Company”
7
Strong
TOP Quartile ROIC
Listed in DJSI since 2011
Long
Ranked Fortune 84th
Big
Technologically Advanced and Green National Oil Company
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
Pride & Treasure of Thailand
8
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
6,638
11,967
5,616
3,671
8,044
6,184
2,286 1,847
Q1/2016 Performance: Strong PTT operations offset loss from affiliates
9*including petroleum exploration expenses and royalties
PTTT: loss from MTM of derivatives
PTTER as coal price dropped
PTTNGD due to squeezed margins
Others
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
2,087 905 1,027
22,584
MMTHB
Margin
FX gainOPEX*
Share of
income
Int. & CIT exp.
Other Income
23,669
Q1/15 Q1/16
PTTEP
PTT
Others
P&R
Net Income
PTTEPLower avg. price 28%Cash cost reduced 21%Sales vol. increase 4%
OilVol. increased 5% mainly from increased demand from lower retail prices Performance increased from stock gain
TradingMargin increased 33% from domestic condensateVol. decreased 11% from out-out transactions
Gas
GSP margin improved from lower feed costbetter NGV performance Increased TM performance
80%
35%
19%
23%
2,278408 1,756
Petrochem & Refining Avg. A/C GRM decreased 7% BCP and SPRC divestment on Apr’15 & Dec’15
Olefins business better from higher HDPE spreads
Aromatics improved from spreads margin and volume increase
Overview
Performance
2016 Outlook
10
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
Contents
E&P : lower performance from continuing decline in oil price, albeit slowering
Product Prices
Net Income (100%)
Sales Volume
Key Highlights
8.08 7.29 7.16 6.29 6.09
50.06
59.34
49.3342.22
32.04
48.95 48.4744.83
39.1835.08
Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
Liquid ($/BBL)
Gas($/MMBTU)
Weighted Avg.
($/BOE)
MMUSD
222 231 226
94 105 104
Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
336
Liquid
Gas
KBOED
316
11
* Gas price, if excludes Vietnam 16-1 retroactive sale recording, is 8.08$ for 9M14
** Average selling price, if excludes Vietnam 16-1 retroactive sale recording is 66.24$ for 9M14
Q4/15
3% QoQ
25% YoY
4% YoY
2% QoQ
36% YoY
19% QoQ
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
24% QoQ
36% YoY
10% QoQ
28% YoY
330
Q1/16
157
246
132
*** Includes Deferred tax from Functional currency, Current Tax from FX Revaluation, Gain/loss from Financial instruments, Gain/(loss)on FX, H1 incident Insurance Claim, and etc.
Q1/15
Non-recurring***
Recurring NI
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
248
116
1,538
13
16
119
41
QoQ
• Avg selling price continued to decline, albeit at a slower pace
• Sales volume decreased slightly from Zawtika’s planned shutdown
• Recurring NI increased due to the absence of $119m tax expenses
as in Q4/15 (reversal of DTA), whilst non-recurring NI decreased
due to oil hedging loss in Q1/16 vs gain in Q4/15
YoY
• Avg selling price significantly declined from slump in oil & gas prices
• Sales volume increased from Algeria’s full production
• NI declined by 36%, mainly due to selling prices
12
E&P Strategy:Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
RESET REFOCUS & RENEW
ActualQ1’16
Guidance 2016
Avg. Gas Price ($/MMBTU)
6.1 ~5.5
Avg. Sales Vol. (KBOD/D)
330 ~322
EBITDA margin (% of Sale Rev.)
74 ~65
Unit Cost($/BOE)
29 <34
Progressing on pre-development candidates• Mozambique: focus on
finalizing commercial agreement
• Algeria: access resources and development concept
Exploration in new prospective areas• Myanmar: conduct
2D/3D seismic surveys • Brazil: prepare for
3D seismic survey
Evaluate new investment opportunities• Near home• Near-term producing
assets• Prospective exploration
blocks• LNG value chain:
evaluate feasibility partnership with PTTEP
2016 Full year guidance
Maintain sales volume Bring down unit cost
12
Business Unit Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 QoQ YoY
Gas- EBITDA 9,204 13,769 14,562 6% 58%
• S&M 2,495 2,626 1,365 (48%) (45%)
• TM 6,797 6,956 8,431 21% 24%
• GSP 842 4,372 3,497 (20%) 315%
• NGV (3,005) (1,913) (937) 51% 69%
• Others 2,075 1,728 2,206 28% 6%
(Unit:MMTHB)
4,015 4,066 5,875 44% 46%
740 1,170 1,108 (5%) 50%
*MIS** Included Gas & Oil subsidiaries
13
Oil-EBITDA
Trading*-EBITDA
Total** 13,959 19,005 21,545 13% 54%
PTT EBITDA Breakdown by BU’s:
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
12.112.6 12.6
8.82 8.04 8.18
Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16Vol.
MMCFD317 289 294
8.6 9.2
8.6 8.5 8.5
7.9 7.3
6.6 6.2
610 607591
437
318377
265
217
160
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
5
7
9
11
13
15
Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
1,129 1,075 1,075
1,011 971 894
720 721 808
985 1,008 884
670 632 673
317 289 294
Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
Gas BU: NG volume decreased from ESP’s T/A, while pooled gas price still trailing
NG Price VS FO NG Customer Breakdown
$/MMBTU
EGAT (23%)
IPP (19%)
SPP (17%)
GSP (19%)
Industry (15%)NGV (7%)
MMSCFD
4,832
NGV Price/Sales Volume
QoQ
• Pooled gas cost further declined, but still lagging selling price, linked to fuel oil
• NG sales volume maintained, notwithstanding Ethane Separation Plant (ESP)’s major T/A. Volume partially offset by increases in SPP’s and Industry’s demand
• Slightly higher NGV volume due to one added NGV Station in Q1/16
YoY
• Overall NG sales decreased from ESP’s major T/A and less gas called from EGAT/IPP’s
• NGV volume decreased, as a result of price hikes
Key Highlights
4,628
ที่เพ่ิมข้ึนเป็นของ
K.Ton/Day
14
7% YoY
2% QoQ
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
4,696
1% QoQ$/Ton
Fuel Oil*
* MOPS HSFO 180 CST
Avg. Pooled gas price
LHS
RHS
%QoQ %YoY
FO 26% 50%
PooledPrice 6% 27%
4% YoY
•
THB/KG
NGV Avg. price 4% YoY
0.1% QoQ
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
2,495 2,626 1,365
6,797 6,956 8,431
842 4,372 3,497
(3,005) (1,913) (937)
2,075
1,728 2,206
Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
858 876 832
577 444 505
405
399 304
1,375 1,234 1,576
1,266
1,188
1,375 1,234
1,153 1,103
333 333 333 333
443 497
470 440
431 389 394 391 382
380 359 352 310 309
Q1/14 Q2/14 Q3/14 Q4/14 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
Propane (12%)
Gas - EBITDA
MMTHB
Others
TM
GSP
13,7699,204
S&M
NGV
674 803 680
187 171
169
552 604
449
204 128
187
94
7
Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
GSP Sales Volume
LPG (46%)
kTon
1,620
13% QoQ
8% YoY
Gas BU: Performance continues to improve from GSP & TM margins and less subsidies
NGL (11%)
Ethane (30%)
Key Highlights
6% QoQ
GSP Feed Cost vs Petroleum price
Naphtha
USD/Ton
Feed Cost**
LPG Ex-GSP*
* Effective on February 2, 2015** Revised feed cost calculation from per sale volume to per GSP production volume
Pentane (1%)
58% YoY
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
1,492
14,562
15
HDPE
QoQ
• GSP performance dropped as a result of ESP’s T/A and margin squeeze from petchem prices declined more than feed cost
• TM margin improved due to increased Total Demand Charge (TDC) volume from additional customers
• Gas EBITDA is better notwithstanding ESP’s T/A, mainly from improvement in TM and NGV
YoY
• GSP feed cost decline (-19%) more than selling prices (HDPE -7% & LPG -3%) helped boost GSP margin
• Lower PTT’s subsidies on LPG and NGV, as a result of price liberalization
• Gas EBITDA continued to improve from GSP, TM and NGV
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
1,710
%QoQ %YoY
HDPE -4% -7%
LPG Ex-GSP -2% -3%
Naphtha -24% -32%
Feed Cost -0.3% -19%
Gas Business Roadmap
LNG Projects
16
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
LNG onshore Terminal 1 Phase 2:
− Construction completed 85.63%, COD: 2017
New LNG projects approved by
Committee on Energy Policy Administration (CEPA),
proposing for National Energy Policy Council (NEPC) approval
1) Terminal 1 capacity enhancement
(from 10 MTA to 11.5 MTA)
− Expansion capacity: 1.5 MTA
− Budget: 1,000 MB
− COD: 2019
2) LNG Onshore Terminal 2
− Capacity: (5 or 7.5 MTA), subject to government energy policy and gulf of Thailand gas supply policy
− Budget: subject to capacity
− COD: 2022
Additional LNG projects needed for further studies before submitting for CEPA and NEPC for consideration
− FSRUs (domestic)
− LNG onshore Terminal 3
− FSRU in Myanmar
Overview Performance Key takeaways
8.82 8.59 8.52 8.04 8.18
9.00
9.50
10.00
10.50
11.00
11.50
12.00
12.50
13.00
0
5
10
15
Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
Avg. Sales Vol. (K.Ton/day)Price (THB/Kg)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
Industry Auto Household Import
1,847 1,8581,738
1,871 1,959
392 462637 566
319
(50.00)
(40.00)
(30.00)
(20.00)
(10.00)
-
10.00
20.00
30.00
40.00
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
Sales vol.
17
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Oil BU: Demand continues to adjust following price liberalization
NGV - volume continues to fall from price hikes
M.Ton
Diesel - demand improved following price fallGasoline - demand surged, as a result of price drop
M.Litre
THB/Litre
34.8930.09
26.1920.62
M.Litre
THB/Litre
12.13
LPG - demand (automobile) and import fall, following price liberalization
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
THB/kg
20.9624.16
12.6012.60
31.83
22.12
Avg. QoQ YoY
Price -7% -21%
Vol. 5% 6%
Export -44% -19%
Change
763 792 812 845 858
91 126 178112 109
-50
0
50
0
500
1,000
1,500
Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
Sales Vol. Export
22.29
Avg. QoQ YoY
Price -0.1% 4%
Vol. 2% -7%
ChangeK Tons/day
0.49 0.49 0.51 0.45 0.39
Avg. QoQ YoY
Price -5% -14%
Vol. 2% 12%
Export -3% 19%
Change
Avg. QoQ YoY
Price -6% -13%
Total vol. -13% -20%
Industry 4% 3%
Auto -9% -15%
Household -0.3% 0.2%
Import -52% -66%
Change
746 881 879
3,269 3,185 4,996
Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
4,015
5,8754,066
100150200250300350400450500550600
20
50
80
QoQ YoY
Oil 57% 53%
Non-oil 0.2% 18%
0.94 1.17
0.87
6,386 6,511
6,677
Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
Oil BU : Better performance mainly from stock gain
MMTHB
THB/Liter
18
QoQ
• Volume slightly increased mainly from lower product prices• Contribution margin decreased mainly due to the decline in
margin for aviation fuel, gasoline, and diesel
YoY• Sales volume significantly increased mainly from lower
product prices• Slightly lower contribution margins mainly from the decline
in margin of aviation fuel• Higher EBITDA mainly from stock gain and increase in non-
oil (Amazon +20%)
Oil
Non-Oil*
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
* EBITDA from Operating
Sales volume1/Contribution margin2/
MM Liter
1/ PTT only
2/ Excluded Non-oil and stock gain/loss
7% YoY
5% YoY
(1,229) (1,657) 687
Petroleum Prices
Stock Gain/Loss(MMTHB)
26% QoQ
3% QoQ
Oil - EBITDA
USD/BBL
(Average Prices)
Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
Key Highlights
USD/ton
(Average Prices)
Gasoline LHS
Diesel LHS
LPG (Pool) RHS
52.5 46.3
38.9 51.9
40.7
30.4
0.06 0.09 0.08
Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
* PTT only : FX Adjusted
740
1,170 1,108
Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
21,067 20,438 18,823
Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
8% QoQ
Trading BU: Margin improved from domestic condensate
Contribution Margin*
Trading - EBITDA*
Sales Volume
Key Highlights
MMTHB
MM Liter
19
* PTT only : FX Adjusted
50% YoY
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Contribution Margin (THB/Liter)
NWS($/BBL)
42% YoY
11% YoY
16% QoQ
5% QoQ
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
Dubai ($/BBL) 25% QoQ
26% YoY
QoQ
• Volume decreased mainly from lower out-out transactions as low seasonal demand in Q1, compared to peak demand in Q4
• Margin slightly decreased from lower domestic crude margin, following lower oil price, despite improved condensate margin
YoY• Sales volume declined, mainly from decline in out-out
trading of petroleum products supplied to Indonesia, following Indonesian’s policy change since Q2/15
• Better contribution margins, mainly from better domestic condensate margins from higher condensate demand
33% YoY
11% QoQ
Major Aromatics Products Exporter from India
► Become a major aromatics products
exporter from
► More than 50% of total export
volume from India in some products,
via a strong relationship with 4 main
producers
► Create more flexibility on portfolio
optimization.
Trading BU: Geographical coverage expansion continues
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
20
4,498 3,749 4,726
3,832
447
3,014
1,037
2,601
1,974
Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16**
98 101
156
255 288
332
Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
66% 85% 80%
21
51.9 40.7 30.4
7.42 6.94
4.98 6.57
4.34 3.54
8.24 7.53
8.15
Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
GRM/GIM
Refinery Utilization
USD/BBL
A/C GRM*
A/C GIM*Mkt GRM
Dubai
Net Income (100%)
U-Rate (%) Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
Aggregated U-Rate
96 99 98
TOP 106 110 107
IRPC 84 84 87
Aggregated Intake (KBD) 472 483
AromaticsAromatics Production
BZ-ULG95
Refining BU: Lower GRM and stock loss, while better Aromatics helped
-2.45 -2.77 -0.87StockGain/Loss
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
USD/Ton
482
6,170
11,968
7,740
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
IRPC
TOP
SPRC
BCP
PX-ULG95
QoQ YoY
BZ 54% 59%
PX 15% 30%
*A/C GRM and A/C GIM include effect from hedging gain/(loss)
QoQ YoY
25% 35%
QoQ YoY
0.2% 2%
QoQ YoY
A/C GIM 8% 1%
Unit : MMTHB
21** Sold out of BCP and SPRC
Refineries : Strategic Projects update
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB)
• Successfully COD on 25 Feb 2016
• On technical aspect, plant is successfully test run
and capable to run up to 120% (at 120 KTA)
• On commercial aspect, trial cargo has been
delivered to customers for quality testing
TOP SPP (2blocks of SPP)
• Successfully COD 1st block of TOP SPP (124MW)
on 1 Apr16
• 2nd block (115 MW):
• Trial run in late Apr 16
• COD on 1 Jun 2016
• Overall progress at 99.9%
22
EVEREST Performance : $300m+
Health : top quartile
5,631 4,691 4,707
612 1,263
649
665
-548
126
Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
1,188 1,153 1,103 1,149 995 930
Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 23
5.98 6.23
4.77 4.17
7.63
3.86
Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
102% 99% 93% 88% 66%87%
217 231 271 332
411 415
Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
Net Income (100%)
Aromatics
Unit : MMTHB
PTTGC
HMC Others
5,406
Olefins U-Rate
96% 97%81%
Olefins
USD/Ton
BTXU-Rate
Refineries
CDU U-Rate
A/C GRM*Mkt GRM
BZ-Cond PX-Cond
-1.50 -2.47 -0.97
StockGain/LossNet NRV
Petrochemical BU: Pressured Refinery & Olefins, despite better Aromatics
6,908
HDPEPrice
PPPrice
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
219 251 201
USD/TonUSD/BBL
AromaticsMkt P2F
5,482
Mkt P2F20% QoQ
8% YoY
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
QoQ YoY
HDPE 4% 7%
PP 7% 19%
QoQ YoY
BZ 17% 25%
PX 1% 25%
*A/C GRM include effect from hedging gain/(loss)
QoQ YoY
A/C GRM 49% 7%
QoQ YoY
1% 21%
Existing
Non Captive Upstream
and …
HDI Deriv. 12 KTA
Phenol II 405 KTAAromatics 170 KTA
HDI Monomer 70 KTA
mLLDPE400 KTA
PO/Polyol 250 KTA
MTP Retrofit761 KTA
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
11,000
2015A 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F
ARO2 Phenol2HDI
ThailandHDI France MLLDPE PO/Polyol MTP Retrofit
CAPEX 128.8 MUSD 345 MUSD 43 MUSD 18 MUSD 288.2 MUSD TBC TBC
Additional PetChem*
(per year)
PX 115 KTA BZ 35 KTAOX 20 KTA
PH 250 KTAAC 155 KTA
HDI Derivative
12 KTA
HDI Monomer
70 KTA
MLLDPE 400 KTA
Hexene-1 34 KTA
PO 200 KTAPolyol 130 KTA
Ethylene 500 KTAPropylene 261
KTA
COD May 2016 May 2016 Q3’16 Q3’16 2018 Q2’19 2020
EBITDA Uplift/Year**
24 MUSD 63 MUSD 9 MUSD 24 MUSD 59 MUSD
• 100% stake of additional capacity ** Estimate EBITDA uplift with 100% stake at mid cycle price
Petrochemical : Strategic Projects update
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
MTP Retrofit
24
(149)
(5)23
(154)
7
Other Businesses : Coal - SAR Continued under pressure from low coal price, despite cost improvements
EBIT
Sales Volume
Key Highlights
MMUSD
USD/Ton
1,968 898
1,446
573
513
617
2,541
1,411
2,063
Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
kTon
Jembayan
Sebuku
Avg. Selling Price
Cash Costs
46% QoQ
Avg. Selling Price & Cash cost
New Castle
13%
19% YoY
70%
Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
Impairment
4%
23%
20%
23%
12%
•
25
2.4x
QoQ YoY
QoQ
YoY
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
56
52
45
34
39
30
66
5351
Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
Operating profit
QoQ
• Selling price declined by 13%, however, cash cost declined by 23%, from successful negotiations with contractors and reduction in fuel cost, following lower oil price
• Volume increased, mainly from effort to sell during annual price peak in Q1, following seasonal contract renewal period
YoY• Sales volume decreased, as coal price dropped from
oversupply• Performance dropped, mainly from lower coal price, despite
reduction in production costs
541 496573
1,233 1,198 1,320
Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
531
335
871
Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
Net Income (100%)Sales Volume
Key Highlights
MMBahtGWh
64% YoY
Other Businesses : Power - GPSC Outstanding performance, as a result of higher sales and plant/cost optimization
‘000 Ton
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
Committed Capacity
Power 6% Steam 10% Steam 7%
>100% QoQ
Power
Steam
Power 16%
26
QoQ YoY
Combine Cycle :
IPP
67.7%
Cogen : SPP
29.5%
Renewable
2.4%
Combined heat: VSPP
0.4%
Operating1,338 MW
Hydro60%
Cogen: SPP36%
Renewable4%
Underconstruction
584 MW
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
QoQ
• Higher sales due to higher sales to EGAT and IRPC-CP full operations
• NI increased, mainly from lower feed cost, plant optimization and dividend income from RPCL (THB 180m in Q1/16)
YoY
• Higher sales, as a result of Rayong Plant’s S/D for Minor Inspection in Q1/15
• Better NI, due to higher demand and better cost management
Other Businesses : Power – GPSCGrowth roadmap – 8 committed projects
E & P Gas Oil & Trading Refining PetChem Others
27
27
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
GPSC’s Committed Capacity
Total Capacity by 2019
Electricity 1,922 MW
Stream 1,582 (T/h)
Unit: Equity MW
70,742 65,607 71,341
Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
51%
26%
15%
8%
44%
20%
6%
29%
1%
21,497 20,139
22,584 23,669
PTT - Oil
& Trading
PTT - Gas
Others
PTTEP
51.9 40.7 30.4Avg. Dubai (USD/BBL)
Q1/16Q1/15
515,211 469,585
386,940
Q1/15 Q4/15 Q1/16
PTT
P&R
Others
PTTEP
Net Income
Unit : MMTHB
EBITDA
Net Income/ Operating Performance
Revenue Revenue
EBITDA
Revenue
EBITDA
P&R
P&R
25% YoY
18% QoQ
9% QoQ
Net Income
41% YoY
25% QoQ
Operating PerformanceNet Income
1% YoY
40%
21%
9%
29%
1%
PTT - Gas
Others
PTTEP
188
Operating Performance
10% YoY
18% QoQ
5% YoY
>100% QoQ
50%
13%
6%
28%
3%
47%
18%
6%
28%
1%
PTT - Oil
& Trading
Net Income
29%
36%
25%
10%
28
23,669
PTT Consolidated Performance: Q1/2016Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
PTT Ratings at Sovereign Level
− FC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),
JCR (A-), FITCH (BBB+)
− LC : Moody’s (Baa1), S&P (BBB+),
JCR (A), FITCH (A-)
0.290.24
1.09
0.93
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
(0.1)
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.7
0.9
YE15 Q1/16
Other Liabilities
PP&E
Others Non-
currentAssets
OtherCurrentAssets
L/TLiabilities(incl. due within 1 yr)
TotalEquity
MMTHB
Cash & S/T Invest
31 Dec 13 30 Sep 14
1,805,041 1,818,746
Statement of Financial Position
Net Debt/EBITDA ≤ 2.0
Net Debt/Equity ≤ 1.0
1,118,677 1,112,094
375,617 378,929
332,977 299,654
346,725 386,061
1,087,687 1,110,345
632,834 631,475
453,475 434,918
1 2 3 4 5
0.1%
2,176,7382,173,996
31 Mar 1631 Dec 15
Assets slightly increased :
• Rise in cash and cash equivalents mainly from
operating cash inflow
• Decrease in A/R & A/P due to lower in product price
29
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
7.71 8.75
13.43
22.40
30.5734.14 34.82
18.3321.06
29.58
37.24 36.58
32.52
20.34
6.73
2.50 2.85 4.006.75
9.25 10.50 11.50
8.00 8.5010.25
13.00 13.00 13.0011.00
10.00
25% 25%
32.4% 32.6% 29.8% 30.1% 30.3% 30.8% 33.0% 43.6% 40.4% 34.7% 34.9% 35.5% 40.0% 54.1%148.6%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
PTT’s minimum payout ratio
Baht / share
EPS
DPS
Dividend payout
30
Dividend Policy & Historical PaymentsPTT is firmly committed to pay dividend at no less than 25% of net income
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
2016 2016(revised)
2017 2018 2019 2020
11,118 4,993 10,850 6,619 5,698 5,2827,315 7,868
5,4664,430 3,191 3,272
827 833609
502 342 325
10,96710,872
17,60712,106 13,245 13,586
20,61218,741
32,983
34,64946,042
29,008
Infrastructure
Investment in JV andits subs
Head Office andOthers
Oil and InternationalTrading
Natural Gas
Infrastructure55%
Gas13%
Oil & Trading
8%
M&A and Oversea
investment8%
LNG15% R&D, Others
1%
PTT: CAPEX (PTT and Wholly Owned Subsidiaries)
PTT plans to invest ~Bt 297bn* ($8bn) during 2016-2020
By Business UnitJV &
Investment in
Subsidiaries
23%
67,514 68,517
51,47350,83958,306
* 2016-2020 budget approved by BOD on 17 Jun 16
5th pipeline & extension
LNG, M&A and Investment Oversea
Unit: MMTHB
43,307
CAPEX revision Y2016:
• CAPEX lower by ~ THB 7.5 bn
• Reduction mainly from:
Natural gas: Terminated GSP capacity expansion,
Postpone Hybrid NGL project
Infrastructure: Delayed Offshore compressor
PTT 5-Years CAPEX Plan ̴Bt 297 bn
31
204,595
89,085
2,969
Energy Infrastructure
69%
Green, 1%
By Strategy
Overview
Performance
2016 Outlook
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
32
Contents
Summary: Y2016 - Forecast
Business Y2015 Q1/2016 Y2016(E) VS
Q1/2016
Reason
Gas Price ($/mmbtu)- Henry Hub- JKM
2.637.46
1.985.06
Range 2.2 – 2.54.3 – 5.3
• US export LNG (Sabine Pass LNG)
• Higher supply and weak demand in North Asia
Oil Price ($/bbl)Dubai Price 51 30
Range35-40
• Decline in US oil output in 2H16 but oversupply condition remains
Refinery Margin ($/bbl)Singapore GRM 7.7 7.7
Range6-7
• Lower Gasoline crack due to high inventory & slow demand duringwinter season in Q4
• Lower Fuel Oil crack due to weak demand in Japan and reduced Chinese import
Petrochemical($/ton)
- Olefins (HDPE, PP)
- Aromatics (PX, BZ)
HDPE-Naphtha =746
PP –Naphtha = 645
PX-Naphtha = 353 BZ-Naphtha = 195
HDPE-Naphtha =762
PP –Naphtha = 569
PX-Naphtha = 410BZ-Naphtha = 233
HDPE-Naphtha = 798PP –Naphtha = 649
PX-Naphtha = 388BZ-Naphtha = 223
Olefins• Supply tight during
Turnaround season in Q2• Supported by seasonal
demand Aromatics• More supply in 2H after
plant resumption from unplanned /planned shutdown
33
Overview Performance 2016 Outlook
Thank youPTT Public Company Limited – Investor Relations Department
Tel. +66 2 537-3518, Fax. +66 2 537-3948, E-mail: [email protected] Website: http://www.pttplc.com
Disclaimer
The information contained in our presentation is intended solely for your personal reference only. In addition, such information contains projections and forward-looking
statements that reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance. These views are based on assumptions subject to various risks and
uncertainties. No assurance is given that future events will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that our assumptions are correct. Actual results may differ
materially from those projected.
Petroleum Reserves and Resources Information
In this presentation, the Company discloses petroleum reserves and resources that are not included in the Securities Exchange and Commission of Thailand (SEC) Annual
Registration Statement Form 56-1 under “Supplemental Information on Petroleum Exploration and Production Activities”. The reserves and resources data contained in
this presentation reflects the Company’s best estimates of its reserves and resources. While the Company periodically obtains an independent audit of a portion of its
proved reserves, no independent qualified reserves evaluator or auditor was involved in the preparation of reserves and resources data disclosed in this presentation.
Unless stated otherwise, reserves and resources are stated at the Company’s gross basis. This presentation may contain the terms “proved reserves”, “probable reserves”,
and/or “contingent resources”. Unless stated otherwise, the Company adopts similar description as defined by the Society of Petroleum Engineers.
Proved Reserves - Proved reserves are defined as those quantities of petroleum which, by analysis of geological and engineering data, can be estimated with reasonable
certainty to be commercially recoverable, from a given date forward, from known reservoirs and under current economic conditions, operating methods, and government
regulations.
Probable Reserves - Probable reserves are defined as those unproved reserves which analysis of geological and engineering data suggests are more likely than not to be
recoverable.
Contingent Resources – Contingent resources are defined as those quantities of petroleum which are estimated, on a given date, to be potentially recoverable from
known accumulations, but which are not currently considered to be commercially recoverable. The reasons for non commerciality could be economic including market
availability, political, environmental, or technological. 34
34
35
Debt Profile : Control Cost & Manage Risk
Debt Portfolio
Managed debt according to financial risk and policy
ConsolidatedPTT OnlyUnit : MMTHB
: Cost of debts ~ 4.58%: % fixed-rate ~ 73%: Avg. debt life ~ 8.18 years
: Cost of debts ~ 4.45%: % fixed-rate ~ 70%: Avg. debt life ~ 7.29 years
204,560 184,091 182,583
384,548 368,733 372,696
83,98581,154 80,495
305,127256,588 251,621
288,545265,245 263,078
689,675
625,321 624,317
31 Dec 14 31 Dec 15 31 Mar 16 31 Dec 14 31 Dec 15 31 Mar 16
USD&Other
THB
(29%)
(71%)
(31%)
(69%)
(44%)
(56%)
(40%)
(60%)
Note : Data as of 31 Mar 16 (THB/USD = 35.4074 THB/JPY = 0.316710) Excluding liabilities from finance leases; Cost of debts includes withholding tax.
35
Cost of debts, % fixed rate, and avg. debt life took into account the derivative transactions. Debt outstanding is reconciled with accounting.
(31%)
(69%)
(41%)
(59%)
Free Cash flow
16,713 13,526
InvestingQ1/15
(87,624)Q1/16
(62,819)
CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset) (46,059) (32,540)
Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) (568) (245)
Current investment (44,046) (29,481)
Dividend/Interest Received 1,276 1,217
Others 1,773 (1,770)
OperatingQ1/15
104,337Q1/1676,345
Net Income 22,584 23,669
Changes in assets & liabilities 43,082 7,992
Income Tax (2,037) (2,549)
Non-Cash Adjustment 40,708 47,233
Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents
224,980 249,833
Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents
234,212 239,978
Cash In/(Out)
(9,232) 9,855
Adjustment
1,018 4,337
Financing (26,963) (8,008)
Repayment Loans (12,858) (12,869)
Interest paid (7,835) (7,074)
Dividend paid (0) (330)
Received from share issue 113 -
Received from loans/Bonds (6,383) 12,265
Others - -
Statements of Consolidated Cash Flows : Q1/16
36
37
Free Cash flow
(597) (8,263)
Financing (8,378) (4,047)
Repayment Loans (6,645) (1,643)
Interest paid (2,555) (2,739)
Dividend paid 0 0
Received from share issue 0 0
Received from loans/Bonds 822 335
Ending Cash & Cash Equivalents
48,983 55,228
Beginning Cash and Cash Equivalents
58,018 67,525
Cash In/(Out)
(9,035) (12,297)
Adjustment
(60) 13
Statements of Cash Flows (PTT Only) : Q1/16
37
InvestingQ1/15 Q1/16
(19,403) (29,743)
CAPEX (PP&E, Intangible asset)(8,643) (5,584)
Investment (Sub. &Affiliates) (300)
(39)
Current investment(10,312)
(21,241)
Dividend/Interest Received 545) 548)
Others(692) (3,426)
Operating Q1/15 Q1/16
18,806 21,480
Net Income 12,083 18,282
Changes in assets & liabilities 8,046 3,443
Income Tax (502) (382)
Non-Cash Adjustment (821) 137
PTT Group Performance : Q1/2016 (YoY)
% PTT
holding
Q1/15 Q1/16 YoY Q1/15 Q1/16 YoY
PTT Net operating Income 6,638 11,967 80% 6,638 11,967 80%
E&P - PTTEP 8,616 5,625 -35% 65.3% 5,616 3,671 -35%
- PTTGC 5,631 4,707 -16% 49.3% 2,684 2,242 -16%
- HMC/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/PTTMCC/PMMA 1,277 775 -39% 620 330 -47%
Petrochemical 6,908 5,482 -21% 3,304 2,572 -22%
- TOP 4,498 4,726 5% 49.1% 2,217 2,366 7%
- IRPC 3,832 3,014 -21% 38.5% 1,571 1,246 -21%
- SPRC 2,601 - -100% 5.41%* 679 0 -100%
- BCP 1,037 - -100% 0%** 273 0 -100%
Refining 11,968 7,740 -35% 4,740 3,612 -24%
Inter - PTTER, PTTGE -530 -348 34% 100% -347 -364 -5%
Gas - PTTLNG/PTTNGD/ TTM(T)/ TTM (M) 1,071 1,349 26% 1,042 1,228 18%
Utilities -GPSC/ TP/ DCAP 854 1,311 54% 259 316 22%
Oil & Oth. - PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/PTTRB/PTTANK/Others 1,499 1,060 -29% 1,333 667 -50%
Others Business 2,894 3,372 17% 2,287 1,847 -19%
Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 30,386 22,219 -27% 15,947 11,702 -27%
PTT Conso. Net Income 37,024 34,186 -8% 22,585 23,669 5%
Equity Method % PTTPerformance 100%
Unit : MMTHB
38
Overview Performance Key takeaways
*SPRC before disposed = 36%, **BCP divested in April 2015
PTT Group Performance : Q1/2016 (QoQ)
39*SPRC before disposed = 36%, **BCP divested in April 2015
% PTT
holding
Q4/15 Q1/16 QoQ Q4/15 Q1/16 QoQ
PTT Net operating Income 9,044 11,967 32% 9,044 11,967 32%
E&P - PTTEP 4,694 5,625 20% 65.3% 3,070 3,671 20%
- PTTGC 4,691 4,707 0% 49.3% 2,256 2,242 -1%
- HMC/PTTPL/PTTPM/PTTAC/PTTMCC/PMMA 715 775 8% 249 330 33%
Petrochemical 5,406 5,482 1% 2,505 2,572 3%
- TOP 3,749 4,726 26% 49.1% 2,038 2,366 16%
- IRPC 447 3,014 574% 38.5% 263 1,246 374%
- SPRC 1,974 - -100% 5.41%* 557 0 -100%
- BCP - - #DIV/0! 0%** - 0 #DIV/0!
Refining 6,170 7,740 25% 2,858 3,612 26%
Inter - PTTER, PTTGE -18,359 -348 -98% 100% -18,643 -364 -98%
Gas - PTTLNG/PTTNGD/ TTM(T)/ TTM (M) 1,911 1,349 -29% 1,487 1,228 -17%
Utilities -GPSC/ TP/ DCAP 377 1,311 248% 137 316 131%
Oil & Oth. - PTTT/SBECL/THAPPLINE/PTTRB/PTTANK/Others 270 1,204 346% 145 811 459%
Others Business -15,801 3,516 -122% -16,874 1,991 -112%
Shared of Net Income from Affiliates 469 22,363 4668% -8,441 11,846 -240%
PTT Conso. Net Income 9,098 34,186 276% 188 23,669 12490%
Equity Method % PTTPerformance 100%
Unit : MMTHB
Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT (Cambodia) Co., Ltd. PTTCL 100.00%PTT Retail Business Co., Ltd. PTTRB 100.00%Thai Lube Blending Co., Ltd. TLBC** 48.95%PTT Tank Terminal Co., Ltd. PTTTANK 100.00%PTT Oil Myanmar Co., Ltd. PTTOM 100.00%
Associates EquityKeloil-PTT LPG Sdn. Bhd. KPL 40.00%Thai Petroleum Pipeline Co., Ltd.THAPPLINE 40.40%PetroAsia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. PA(Thailand) 35.00%
Others CostPetroAsia (Maoming) Co., Ltd. PA(Maoming) 20.00%PetroAsia (Sanshui) Co., Ltd. PA(Sanshui) 25.00%Intoplane Services Co., Ltd. IPS 16.67%Fuel Pipeline Transportation Co., Ltd.FPT 0.00024%
Others Fair ValueBangkok Aviation Fuel Services Plc. BAFS 7.06%
Others
Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT Exploration & Production Plc. PTTEP 65.29%PTT Natural Gas Distribution Co., Ltd. PTTNGD 58.00%PTT LNG Co., Ltd. PTTLNG 100.00%Thai Oil Power Co., Ltd.* TP 26.00%Global Power Synergy Co., Ltd* GPSC 22.58%
Joint Ventures EquityTrans Thai-Malaysia (Thailand) Co., Ltd. TTM (T) 50.00%Trans Thai-Malaysia (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. TTM (M) 50.00%District Cooling System and Power Plant DCAP 35.00%
Petrochemical Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT Polymer Marketing Co., Ltd. PTTPM 50.00%PTT Polymer Logistics Co., Ltd. PTTPL**50.00%PTT PMMA Co., Ltd. PTTPMMA 100.00%PTT Global Chemical Plc.* PTTGC 49.42%PTT Maintenance and Engineering* PTTME 40.00%PTT Energy Solutions Co., Ltd.* PTTES 40.00%
Joint Ventures EquityHMC Polymers Co., Ltd. HMC 41.44%PTT Asahi Chemical Co., Ltd. PTTAC 48.50%PTT MCC Biochem Co., Ltd. PTTMCC 50.00%
Refining Subsidiaries ConsolidateThai Oil Plc.* TOP 49.10%IRPC Plc.* IRPC 38.51%
Refining Associates EquityStar Petroleum Refining Co., Ltd. SPRC 5.41%
Others Fair ValueDhipaya Insurance Plc. TIP 13.33%
Subsidiaries ConsolidateEnergy Complex Co., Ltd. EnCo 50.00%Business Service Alliance Co., Ltd. BSA * 25.00%PTT Regional Treasury Center Pte. Ltd. PTTRTC 100.00%PTT ICT Solutions Co., Ltd.* PTTICT 20.00%
International Trading Business Group
Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT International Trading Pte. PTTT 100.00%
Remark : *The companies have changed their status to subsidiaries due to impact from PACK5** Subsidiaries that PTT holds less than 50% but being consolidated because PTT has the power to control the financial and operating policies.
Petrochemicals & Refining Business GroupE&P and Gas Business Group Oil Business Group
Data as of 31 March 2016
International Investment
Subsidiaries ConsolidatePTT Energy Resources Co., Ltd. PTTER 100.00%PTT Green Energy Pte. Ltd PTTGE 100.00%
40
40
41
Natural Gas Price Structure : Jan-Mar 2016
CustomersSales Price Structure
Gas Pool Price Supply Margins Pipeline Tariffs+ +
Average Purchased Gas Price
1.75%
1.75%
9.33%
21.9 Bt/MMBtu
Charged at the same price structure of power producers
Reference to Saudi Aramco’s contract price
Charged at prices comparable to fuel oil
Gas prices are mostly agreed under long-term contracts and volatility pass-through to ensure stable returns.
Profit-sharing mechanism based on market prices of petrochemicals
Reference to Naphtha market price
At GSPs cost (adjusted every 3 months)
• Contract periods are ~ 25-30 years or until depletion of gas fields or the expiration of concessions
41
*
* EGAT IPP and SPP Supply Margins not more than 2.1525 and 11.4759 respectively
*
*
Power Producers 60%
: EGAT 23%
: IPP 19%
: SPP 18%
GSP 20%
Petrochemicals Feedstocks
Industry 14%
NGV 6%
Ethane, Propane, LPG
NGL
Local Cooking Gas
Export Cooking Gas
21 Jan -15 Jul 2016: Capped at 13.50 Baht/Kg. If cost is less than 13.50 Baht/Kg, retail price will be set to reflect the cost.
42Source : PTT
Gas demand forecast (CAGR during 2016-2030): Total ~ 0.3%: Power ~ 1%: GSP ~ -3%: Industry ~ 2%: NGV ~ -1%
Natural Gas : A steadily growth of natural gas upon Government fuel diversification policy for power generation
Thailand’s Projected Energy Demand
43
Primary Energy Consumption
Source : EPPO/ DEDE/ PDP 2015/ PTT analysis as of May 2016
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal/Lignite
Hydro/Import
KBD
Renewable2,619
25%
32%
15%
2%
26%
3,720
2,494
29%
35%
14%
20%
2%
29%
37%
12%
20%
2%
1.4%
1.7%
3.0%
4.1%
5.1%
Gas Business Generates Stable Returns
Sole owner and operator of entire
gas transmission pipelines in
Thailand (~ 4,000 km), a regulated
business
• IRROE ranges between
12.5% - 18% for transmission
pipeline investment
Supply & marketing of natural gas
provides fixed margin with long-term
contracts of 25-30 years
6 Gas Separation Plants; Total
production 6.7 MTA; are on
petrochemical market price-linked
profit sharing basis
Overview Gas transmission pipeline capacity
44
10
50
90
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
LNG (JLC) ($/MMBTU) JKM Spot Avg. Pooled Gas ($/MMBTU)
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
100
300
500
700
900
1100
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
HDPE-Naphtha Spread PX-Naphtha Spread
13.6
NG Prices ($/MMBTU)
* JLC = Japan LNG Cocktail : Landed LNG price in Japan
Key Business Drivers: Oil price bottom out & NG further decline
Note: Figures are average
682
Dubai vs FO ($/BBL)
HDPE and PX spreads($/Ton) FX (USD/THB)
Dubai
FO
HDPE
321
PX
61.3
59.1
800
360
9.3
JLC*
51.9
51.2 Avg. Pooled
7.98.5
49.7
42.6
771
357
9.2
7.3
9.1
7.3
JKM
7.7
32.8
35.4
45
Depreciated
3.0 THB/USD (9.1%)
762
45* Naphtha (MOPJ)
40.7
34.9
9.0
7.1
6.6
703
304
30.4
25.8
5.1
7.8
6.2
40633.4
Appreciate
0.2 THB/USD (0.55%)
Overview Performance Key takeaways
36.0 35.8
Energy Price Reform: LPG Prices
CP-20 $/ton or 423 $/ton
Lifted GSP Capped Price from 333 USD/TON to reflect GSP Cost
GSP3.6 Mil. Ton
(48%)
Imported 2.0 Mil.
Ton(27%)
Refinery1.9 Mil.
Ton(25%)
488 $/TON
or16.11 ฿/kg
CP+85 $/ton or 528 $/ton
498 $/ton
*CP Jan’15= 443 $/ton
Tax2.39 ฿/kg
Margin3.26 ฿/kg
Oil Fund0.63 ฿/kg
VAT1.57 ฿/kg
Oil FundAS
CLEARING HOUSE
Margin3.26 ฿/kg
VAT1.19 ฿/kg
Tax2.39 ฿/kg
No oil
Fund
23.96 ฿/kg
18.13 ฿/kg
Cooking
Transport
Industrial
Low income
Need subsidy
4.82 ฿/kg
LPG prices for Petchem : not controlled, but linked to market price and/or contract price
46
Corporates Survival Strategy:ROIC strategy to drive strong performance
Rationalization Optimization
Integration Consolidation
1. Rationalization
Focus On : - Core Assets/Area- Strategic Direction- Future Potential- Low Cost
Divest from: - Non Core/Strategic
- Small Investment- Non Potential- High Cost
2. Optimization
Operational Excellence
Supply Chain Management Optimization
Synergy
New Technology Development
Cost Reduction
3. Integration
Vertical Integration
Increase Stability of fluctuation on business cycle
Increase Resilience
4. Consolidation
Increase Size/Scale
Complement Strategic Focus
Minimize Unit Cost
Increase Competitiveness
47
PTT strategies to cope with low oil price