protein challenge: sustainable animal production · production is likely to continue, despite the...

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Prepared by Timothy Kurt, DVM, PhD Scientific Program Director, Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research Vision The FFAR Protein Challenge seeks to enhance and improve the environmental, economic and social sustainability of diverse proteins for a growing global population. For livestock and poultry production, the priority research targets include feed and nutrition efficiency, environmental sustainability, animal wellbeing and antibiotic stewardship. Background Animal production is a critical component of U.S. agriculture that provides high-quality, nutritious foods to millions of Americans and is an important economic driver, accounting for over half of agricultural cash receipts - exceeding $100 billion per year 1 . When feed production is included, animal agriculture accounts for 60 to 70% of the total U.S. agricultural economy 2 . Worldwide, livestock contribute 40-50% of total agricultural output and support the livelihoods and food security of almost 1.3 billion people 3-4 . Meat, eggs and dairy are important for human nutrition, as they contain all the essential amino acids, highly bioavailable micronutrients such as iron and zinc, long chain omega-3 fatty acids, vitamins A, D and B12, and contain low levels of antinutrients 5-6 . Studies show that adding small amounts of animal products to plant-based diets can dramatically improve nutritional outcomes, particularly for pregnant and lactating women, and children 7-9 . Estimates of world population growth project that by 2050, there be approximately 9.5 billion people on Earth, leading to additional strains on land and freshwater resources. During this time, the global demand for meat, dairy and fish products is projected to increase by 50-70% 3 , predominantly due to rising incomes in the developing world. The movement towards intensive or semi-intensive livestock and poultry production is likely to continue, despite the recent development of alternative “meat” products 2,3,4,11 . However, sustainability challenges in livestock production remain a major concern. Animal agriculture is associated with challenges that range from air and water pollution, to animal welfare and the use of medically-important antibiotics. Research investment is critical to addressing these ongoing challenges and keeping the U.S. in the forefront of innovative practices that may be adopted on a global scale. Among the highest priorities for animal agriculture research investment are optimizing livestock productivity and sustainability, as broadly outlined in a recent report sponsored by the National Academy of Sciences 2 . There are many avenues to improving animal productivity by increasing meat or milk yield, Protein Challenge: Sustainable Animal Production Vision Statement and Working White Paper

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Page 1: Protein Challenge: Sustainable Animal Production · production is likely to continue, despite the recent development of alternative “meat” 2,3,4,11. products However, sustainability

Prepared by Timothy Kurt, DVM, PhD Scientific Program Director, Foundation for Food and Agriculture Research

Vision

The FFAR Protein Challenge seeks to enhance and improve the environmental, economic and social sustainability of diverse proteins for a growing global population. For livestock and poultry production, the priority research targets include feed and nutrition efficiency, environmental sustainability, animal wellbeing and antibiotic stewardship.

Background

Animal production is a critical component of U.S. agriculture that provides high-quality, nutritious foods to millions of Americans and is an important economic driver, accounting for over half of agricultural cash receipts - exceeding $100 billion per year1. When feed production is included, animal agriculture accounts for 60 to 70% of the total U.S. agricultural economy2. Worldwide, livestock contribute 40-50% of total agricultural output and support the livelihoods and food security of almost 1.3 billion people3-4. Meat, eggs and dairy are important for human nutrition, as they contain all the essential amino acids, highly bioavailable micronutrients such as iron and zinc, long chain omega-3 fatty acids, vitamins A, D and B12, and contain low levels of antinutrients5-6. Studies show that adding small amounts of animal products to plant-based diets can dramatically improve nutritional outcomes, particularly for pregnant and lactating women, and children7-9. Estimates of world population growth project that by 2050, there be approximately 9.5 billion people on Earth, leading to additional strains on land and freshwater resources. During this time, the global demand for meat, dairy and fish products is projected to increase by 50-70%3, predominantly due to rising incomes in the developing world. The movement towards intensive or semi-intensive livestock and poultry production is likely to continue, despite the recent development of alternative “meat” products2,3,4,11. However, sustainability challenges in livestock production remain a major concern. Animal agriculture is associated with challenges that range from air and water pollution, to animal welfare and the use of medically-important antibiotics. Research investment is critical to addressing these ongoing challenges and keeping the U.S. in the forefront of innovative practices that may be adopted on a global scale. Among the highest priorities for animal agriculture research investment are optimizing livestock productivity and sustainability, as broadly outlined in a recent report sponsored by the National Academy of Sciences2. There are many avenues to improving animal productivity by increasing meat or milk yield,

Protein Challenge: Sustainable Animal Production Vision Statement

and Working White Paper

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growth rate, reproductive efficiency, disease resistance or other approaches. The scientific tools to achieve these objectives are numerous and include genomic selection, diagnostic tool development, precision animal monitoring, husbandry and management, improved vaccine efficacy / delivery and others. These tools and approaches interact to improve animal health and performance, improve food safety and quality, reduce environmental impacts and ultimately improve food security. Feeding a growing world population will require preserving natural resources as well as improving economic and social viability - the three pillars of sustainability. In the last 50 years, improvements in livestock production resulting from genetic gains equated to greater yields from fewer animals using less feed per animal. Now, it may be possible to use similar approaches to address issues related to animal wellbeing and the environment. FFAR is committed to seeking input from a wide range of stakeholders including livestock producers, researchers and the public, to develop cross-disciplinary research programs that address agricultural challenges through diverse partnerships. The larger picture is crucial: practical solutions in livestock production have the potential to impact food security and livelihoods throughout the world.

Research Funding Trends in Animal Agriculture

FFAR strives to identify and focus efforts on research gaps in order to complement, but not duplicate, the research mission of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). For context, between 2003 and 2012, USDA’s National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) funded research in animal health (23%), genetic improvement (17%), reproductive performance (12%), nutrient utilization (12%) and animal management systems (10%), followed by animal physiology (6%), feeds (5%), economic and policy issues (4%), welfare (3%), environmental stress (1%) and waste disposal (1%)2. From 2010 to 2014, USDA’s Agricultural Research Service (ARS) animal research priorities concentrated on beef cattle (25%), poultry (19%) and dairy (18%), followed by swine (14%), aquaculture (14%) and other animal research (10%)2. ARS puts significant funding and effort into genetic improvement programs. Infectious disease research, including disease pathogenesis and transmission, is also funded by cooperative programs such as the dual-use program of The Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) and NIFA, as well as by the Centers for Disease Control and National Institutes of Health. Food safety research receives significant funding from these agencies as well as the Food and Drug Administration. Public funding for agriculture research has been decreasing in recent years despite an estimated median rate of return of 40% on research investment13. During the same time, private investment in research and development has increased substantially. The private sector performs almost all research in “food and feed manufacturing” and “farm machinery and engineering,” and along with the public sector, conducts significant research in “animal systems and animal health” 13 that includes drug and vaccine development.

Opportunities for Innovative Research in Animal Agriculture

Animal agriculture is an enormous enterprise encompassing many commodities: poultry, eggs, beef, dairy, pork, fish as well as the feed and corn-ethanol industries, among others. The challenge is to develop programs that span these commodities where possible. For instance, understanding the interaction between genetics, nutrition, gut health and modifiers such as antibiotics and pre- or pro-biotics may

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improve feed efficiency and performance, protect against certain skeletal and respiratory diseases, reduce food safety pathogens and reduce environmental impacts (Fig. 1). There are many opportunities for cross-sector research; the following examples are illustrative of possible programmatic themes.

Antibiotic Stewardship and Livestock Performance

The increasing global prevalence of antimicrobial resistance has brought significant attention to the use of antibiotics and other growth-promoting strategies in animal agriculture. There is controversy over whether on-farm antibiotic use is a primary cause of antibiotic-resistant bacterial infections in humans. However, there is widespread effort to reduce antibiotic use in livestock production given the enormous threat to human health presented by multi-drug resistant bacteria.

Historically in the U.S., different types of drugs have been used to promote animal growth, lean muscle deposition and disease management. The 2017 FDA Veterinary Feed Directive (guidance 209/213) bans the use of medically-important antibiotics in the feed and water of production animals for growth promoting purposes. Instead, these drugs are only to be used for therapeutic purposes under the supervision of a veterinarian. There is a very real need to assist producers as they transition to practices that improve antibiotic stewardship and animal health. Approaches to improving animal productivity without the use of antibiotics include: (1) understanding the connection between nutrition, genetics, environment and microbiome to improve health and productivity, (2) improving immunity to / reducing exposure to pathogens and (3) improving husbandry and management practices. Approaches to improving antibiotic stewardship include precision monitoring, diagnostic and treatment tools, understanding the connection between husbandry/management and treatment outcomes and understanding the fate of antibiotics and antimicrobial resistance genes in the environment.

Nutrition and Feeds

Figure 1. The Complex Interplay Between Animal Performance, Health and Management Practices.

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The livestock sector is the largest user of agricultural land globally through grazing and feed production, accounting for approximately of 26% of Earth’s terrestrial surface and one-third of arable land, respectively3,4. It is critical to provide high-quality feeds to sustain performance while minimizing environmental impacts. Improving the efficiency of feed production and utilization by increasing protein-content, improving biofuel coproduct utilization and improving digestibility would enable the production of more feed on fewer acres, reduce nitrogen/phosphorus excretion and reduce the amount of feed required per animal. Alternative feedstuffs, including industrial and food byproducts, could also improve the sustainability of feeding livestock. Research in these areas could reduce the competition between livestock and humans for arable crop land, addressing a frequent criticism of animal agriculture. Nutritional genomics, microbiome and enzyme/additive research, among other approaches, all hold promise for improving our ability to meet the metabolic demands of high-performance animals. This research may also provide insight into methods for preventing contamination of animal products with food-safety pathogens.

In marginal croplands and non-productive arid grasslands, ruminants are important for their ability to convert low-quality forage materials into high-quality protein products. In these landscapes, using optimal

grazing management practices may contribute ecosystem services such as seed dispersal, reducing wildfire potential and improving soil health.

Animal nutrition and feeds research can also inform biomedical research. The translational impact of livestock nutrition research is illustrated by a recent article commissioned by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, which reviews the role of animal nutrition research in understanding human maternal and child

health outcomes14. As the authors state, “better appreciation of the close linkage between human health, medicine, and agriculture will identify opportunities that will enable faster and more efficient innovations in global maternal and child health.”14

Adaptation to Climate

Heat stress occurs when an animal’s core temperature rises above its thermoneutral zone, a condition that is exacerbated by the metabolic demands of high productivity. Heat stress affects all livestock species and has significant impacts on feed consumption and growth rate, reproductive efficiency, milk yield, egg production and welfare15,16,17,18. Heat stress occurs in animals throughout the U.S. during periods of elevated ambient temperature and humidity, and the economic impacts are large: approximately $900 million per year in the dairy industry, $370 million in beef, $300 million in pork and $128 million in poultry15. Without heat abatement systems, the total annual loss to the dairy industry is estimated to be ~$1.5 billion per year15.

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Reduced productivity due to heat stress results from decreased feed intake, poor absorption and metabolic alterations in the use of fat and protein resources. Genetic selection for improved performance reduces heat tolerance due to the increased production of body heat from metabolic activity16. Heat stress causes decreases in several performance parameters, in particular reproductive efficiency, causing up to 53% reduction in conception rate in dairy cows in the summer in Southern states17. Pigs are particularly sensitive to heat stress because they do not sweat and have small lungs and more subcutaneous fat. Heat

stress in pigs is associated with failure to maintain pregnancy, smaller litter sizes and birthweights, decreased milk production and increased post-birth mortalities, etc. Heat stress may also comprise intestinal function, predisposing pigs and other animals to secondary infections18.

Farmers use several methods to prevent heat stress in livestock including providing adequate shade, air-flow and drinking water, misting or spray-cooling, nutritional management and husbandry approaches. The energy costs and carbon footprint required to keep livestock cool are significant and likely to increase in coming years. Genetic approaches offer a longer-term strategy for improving animal performance in a changing climate. Cross-breeding livestock may produce animals with greater tolerance to

heat and humidity but often compromises performance, carcass quality and yield. With the development of precision gene-editing tools, the identification of genetic markers for thermotolerance may allow rapid introgression into high-performing animals in the U.S. and abroad. A cross-disciplinary approach to thermotolerance research that considers the complex interplay between genetics, metabolic demands and nutrition could have a major impact on reducing food insecurity and environmental impacts of livestock production. In addition, this work would provide insights into human health outcomes during extreme heat events19,20. The frequency and the intensity of heat waves are expected to increase in coming years21,22.

Emissions and Manure/Litter Management

Emissions: There has been significant concern about the contribution of livestock to greenhouse gas emissions since the publication of “Livestock’s Long Shadow” by the FAO23, which was eventually retracted due to major flaws that overestimated the contribution of livestock to greenhouse gas production. More recent studies suggest that globally, enteric fermentation contributes approximately 5.8%, and manure contributes approximately 1.45%, of total greenhouse gas emissions24. In the U.S., these numbers are lower due to precision feeding and advances in animal and manure management, in fact, the sum of animal agriculture activities in the U.S. - including feed production, enteric fermentation, manure and transportation, is associated with approximately 9% of greenhouse gas emissions25,26,27,28. Improvements

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in animal performance, feed production and feeding strategies, and grazing management may further reduce the emissions from livestock. In addition, research in this area has the potential to impact practices in developing countries where animal production is less efficient, leading to significant reductions in animal-associated greenhouse gas emissions globally.

Animal waste and nutrient management: Livestock provide valuable fertilizer through manure, which can also be converted to biogas through anaerobic digestion or used in other applications. At the same time, manure and wastewater from livestock facilities has the potential to contribute pollutants such as nitrogen and phosphorus, antibiotics and other compounds to the environment through land-application or leaks from manure storage facilities. Improvements in feed management and manure and wastewater storage have reduced effluents from animal production, yet some research shows an association between the density of animal feeding operations and the levels of dissolved inorganic nitrogen within the same watershed29. Nutrient runoff is a concern for ecosystem and human health. There are several opportunities for research on the recycling, management and treatment of waste and litter.

Improved Immunity and Pathogen Control

Infectious diseases cause enormous losses in animal production in the U.S. and globally. Although it is difficult to quantify, the OIE estimates that worldwide over 20% of livestock are lost to disease annually. In the U.S., bovine respiratory disease complex alone causes $800-900 million in annual losses30. Infectious diseases cause direct losses through mortality and indirect losses due to trade barriers, outbreak control and other impacts. In addition, many livestock diseases are zoonotic – it is estimated that in developing countries, livestock-associated zoonoses cause 2.4 billion cases of human illness and 2.2 million deaths each year31. Changes in climate and changing agricultural practices will likely increase the frequency and severity of disease outbreaks32. Improved disease surveillance would improve animal health and productivity and reduce the potential for zoonotic disease outbreaks. Vaccination is one of the most effective strategies to prevent animal disease, although efficacy may be limited by stability, delivery, cost and whether they generate a robust immune response at the mucosal surface. Strategies for improving mucosal targeting of vaccines and increasing mucosal immunity against veterinary pathogens have enormous potential for improving animal and human health, reducing antibiotic use and improving global food security.

Farm-Animal Welfare

The global trend towards further intensification of livestock production is occurring alongside rapid changes in production practices, often in response to consumer perceptions regarding animal agriculture. Changes in antibiotic use and housing often have unintended negative impacts on animal health and welfare. Farm-animal welfare is a subjective topic, involving opinions on quality of life issues such as the physical and emotional health of food animals. FFAR address welfare issues that impact production efficiency and social acceptance of animal agriculture in a neutral and objective manner by supporting research that provides for the wellbeing of animals and provides producers tools that improve

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management. Given the wide variety of animal breeds, husbandry practices, and additional factors that can impact animal welfare and production, it is vital that researchers provide cutting-edge information to support producers care for their livestock. There are many research opportunities in farm-animal welfare, with several that have high potential for supporting multi-stakeholder research initiatives, including improving physical health, husbandry and housing management, and how to assess optimal welfare outcomes.

Aquaculture

Aquaculture, or water-based farming, is conducted in fresh or salt water and in land-based systems. Fish products play an important role in food security and improving human nutritional outcomes33,34 and the demand for seafood continues to outstrip supply: it is projected that by 2030 the world will need to produce an additional 30 million metric tons of fish33,35. Producing fish and shellfish sustainably to meet projected demand presents a challenge that will require appropriately-managed aquaculture in addition to wild-capture fishing, as capture fisheries have reached peak capacity and many are fully- or over-exploited33,35,36,37. Although aquaculture is the fastest-growing food-producing sector worldwide33,35, aquaculture research in the U.S. has been funded at low levels compared to other areas of animal agriculture. Well-managed and properly sited aquaculture farms have the potential for highly sustainable protein production. Fish have a very efficient (almost 1:1) feed conversion resulting in relatively low environmental impacts from feed production. While there has been concern about feeds containing fishmeal, new alternatives including plant-feeds supplemented with taurine, invertebrate-based feeds and the incorporation of fish processing byproducts have potential to alleviate impacts on wild fisheries.

As the U.S. aquaculture industry grows, research will play a critical role in understanding the biology and marketability of a variety of fish and shellfish species, and in developing environmentally-friendly practices that sustain production. Most aquatic species in production, especially shellfish, have undergone very little selection; they are essentially wild. One topic that could have a large impact is the genetic selection

of non-oyster shellfish for improved performance parameters such as growth efficiency, yield and tolerance to changing climatic conditions. Commercial aquaculture production is also limited by the availability of juvenile finfish and shellfish for stocking. There is a need for research to improve broodstock genetics, understand the nutritional requirements of early life-cycle stages and other factors to support the expanding industry. Finally, it is important to support market-

based feasibility studies that may impact how an entire region practices sustainable aquaculture and with which species, and whether the products are likely to be successful in the market place.

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Conclusions

Several research topics in livestock production have significant potential to advance the sustainability and productivity of animal agriculture. Animal agriculture research impacts diverse stakeholders ranging from animal producers and associations, feed companies, animal health companies, technology companies and the public. One of FFAR’s goals with livestock-related research programs is to catalyze interactions between these groups to support cross-disciplinary outcomes (Fig. 3). Multi-stakeholder participation in research programs will strengthen the scientific expertise, broaden the scope and diversity of perspectives and increase the likelihood of implementation, all of which heighten the impact of these research programs. FFAR is excited to support innovative animal science research with the potential for improving animal and human health in the U.S. and abroad.

Figure 3. Topics for multi-stakeholder research initiatives.

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Citations 1USDA-NASS. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Charts_and_Maps/Meat_Animals_PDI/valprd.php 2Committee on Considerations for the Future of Animal Science Research; Science and Technology for Sustainability Program; Policy and Global Affairs; Board on Agriculture and Natural Resources; Division on Earth and Life Sciences; National Research Council. Critical Role of Animal Science Research in Food Security and Sustainability. Washington (DC): National Academies Press (US); 2015 Mar 31. Summary available from: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK285709/ 3FAO. 2011. World Livestock 2011 – Livestock in food security. Rome, FAO. 4FAO. 2009. The State of Food and Agriculture –Livestock in the balance. Rome, FAO. ISSN 0081-4539 5Millward, D., 1999. Meat or wheat for the next millenium? Proc. Nutr. Soc. 58, 209-2011. 6FAO. 2013. Dietary protein quality evaluation in human nutrition. Report of an FAO Expert Consultation. FAO FOOD AND NUTRITION PAPER 92. FOOD AND AGRICULTURE ORGANIZATION OF THE UNITED NATIONS ROME, 2013. http://www.fao.org/ag/humannutrition/35978-02317b979a686a57aa4593304ffc17f06.pdf 7FAO. 2013. State of food insecurity in the World 2013. Rome, FAO. http://www.fao.org/docrep/018/i3434e/i3434e01.pdf 8Dagnelie, P.C., Van Dusseldorp, M., Van Staveren, W.A. & Hautvast, J.G., 1994. Effects of macrobiotic diets on linear growth in infants and children until 10 years of age. EJCN. 48, p. S103-S111. 9Neumann, C.G. et al., 2003. Animal source foods improve dietary quality, micronutrient status, growth and cognitive function in Kenyan school children: Background, study design and baseline findings. J. Nutr. 133, 3941S-3949S 10FAO. 2011. Major gains of efficiency in livestock needed. http://www.fao.org/news/story/en/item/116937/icode/ 11Thornton, PK. Livestock production: recent trends, future prospects. Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2010 Sep 27; 365(1554): 2853–2867. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2010.0134 PMCID: PMC2935116 13Matthew Clancy, Keith Fuglie, and Paul Heisey. 2016. U.S. Agricultural R&D in an Era of Falling Public Funding. USDA ERS. https://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2016/november/us-agricultural-rd-in-an-era-of-falling-public-funding/ 14Odle J, Jacobi SK, Boyd RD, Bauman DE, Anthony RV, Bazer FW, Lock AL, Serazin AC. 2017. The Potential Impact of Animal Science Research on Global Maternal and Child Nutrition and Health: A Landscape Review. Adv Nutr. 2017 Mar 15;8(2):362-381. doi: 10.3945/an.116.013896. 15St-Pierre NR, Cobanov B, Schnitkey G. Economic losses from heat stress by US livestock industries. J Dairy Sci. 2003;86(5):e52–77. doi: 10.3168/jds.S0022-0302(03)74040-5) 16Collier RJ, Collier JL, Rhoads RP, Baumgard LH. 2008. Invited review: genes involved in the bovine heat stress response. J Dairy Sci, 91(2):445-454

17Ferreira FC, Gennari RS, Dahl GE, De Vries A. 2016. Economic feasibility of cooling dry cows across the United States. J Dairy Sci, 99(12):9931-9941

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21Huang, C., A. Gerard Barnett, X. Wang, P. Vaneckova, G. FitzGerald, and S. Tong, 2011: Projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios: A systematic review. Environmental Health Perspectives, 119, 1681-1690, doi:10.1289/Ehp.1103456. 22Kovats, R.S.; Hajat, S. 2008. Heat Stress and Public Health: A Critical Review. Annual Review of Public Health Vol. 29:41-55 https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.publhealth.29.020907.090843 23FAO. 2006. Livestock's long shadow: environmental issues and options. Rome, FAO. ISBN 978-92-5-105571-7 24Gerber, P.J., Steinfeld, H., Henderson, B., Mottet, A., Opio, C., Dijkman, J., Falcucci, A. & Tempio, G. 2013. Tackling climate change through livestock – A global assessment of emissions and mitigation opportunities. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), Rome. 25https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/sources-greenhouse-gas-emissions 26J. L. Ellis, E. Kebreab, N. E. Odongo, B. W. McBride, E. K. Okine, and J. France, “Prediction of methane production from dairy and beef cattle,” Journal of Dairy Science, vol. 90, no. 7, pp. 3456–3467, 2007. 27National Research Council, The Scientific Basis for Estimating Air Emissions from Animal Feeding Operations, National Academy Press, Washington, DC, USA, 2002. 28D. E. Johnson and G. M. Ward, “Estimates of animal methane emissions,” Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, vol. 42, no. 1-2, pp. 133–141, 1996. 29Serena Ciparis, Luke R. Iwanowicz, and J. Reese Voshell. Effects of watershed densities of animal feeding operations on nutrient concentrations and estrogenic activity in agricultural streams;414(1):268-276. Doi 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2011.10.017 30Kathleen R. Brooks, Kellie Raper, Clement Ward, Ben P. Holland and Clint Krehbiel. Economic Effects of Bovine Respiratory Disease on Feedlot Cattle during Backgrounding and Finishing Phases. No 45849, 2009 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2009, Atlanta, Georgia from Southern Agricultural Economics Association 31Grace, D. et al. Mapping of Poverty and Likely Zoonoses Hotspots (International Livestock Research Institute, 2012) 32Brian D. Perrya,1, Delia Graceb , and Keith Sonesc. Current drivers and future directions of global livestock disease dynamics. PNAS | December 24, 2013 | vol. 110 | no. 52 | 20871–20877 33FAO. (2016). The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2016. Contributing to food security and nutrition for all. Rome. 200 pp. 34Thilsted et al. (2016). Sustaining healthy diets: The role of capture fisheries and aquaculture for improving nutrition in the post-2015 era. Food Policy, Vol 61:126–131 35OECD/Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2015). Agricultural Outlook 2015. OECD Publishing, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2015-en

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