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Protect Capital INVESTOR PRESENTATION Feb 2020 Create Wealth 1

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Page 1: Protect Capital · Leading To Multibagger Returns 5 Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonus Gain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as

Protect Capital INVESTORPRESENTATION

Feb 2020

Create Wealth

1

Page 2: Protect Capital · Leading To Multibagger Returns 5 Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonus Gain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as

~ Warren Buffet

Rule No 1: Never lose moneyRule No 2: Never forget rule No 1.

~ Ben Graham

In the short run, the market is a voting machine, But in the long term, it is a weighing machine

~ John Bogle

Successful investing is about owning businesses and reaping the huge rewards provided by the dividends and earnings growth

Page 3: Protect Capital · Leading To Multibagger Returns 5 Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonus Gain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as

We Protect Capital

Prudent risk management - core of our investment philosophy

Investment UniverseDiversification across industries

Diversification across Mcap with

focus on liquidity:

• ≥ 40% in large cap INR275 bn+

• ≤ 10% in one stock

• ≤ 35% in one sector,

• ≤ 50% in the top 10 stocks

• Minimum investments in 30 stocks

Flexible investment style: Growth as well

as Value with focus on Margin of Safety

Staggered ApproachPortfolio exposure increased over a

period

Not averse to raise cash

Close eye on earnings

growth drivers

Close eye on valuations

Continuous monitoring of

risk

Exit Strategy

3

Page 4: Protect Capital · Leading To Multibagger Returns 5 Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonus Gain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as

We Create Wealth

3M StockSelection Approach

Identify Size of Sector Opportunity

Market Size

Size of the opportunity should be huge to generate significant investment returns

Identify top 5 (Profitable) players in the sector

Market Share

The company be consistently profitable and should be among the leading players in the industry

Identify the stock for investment with Reasonable Valuation

Margin of Safety

The company should provide reasonable growth opportunity at reasonable Margin of Safety

4

Page 5: Protect Capital · Leading To Multibagger Returns 5 Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonus Gain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as

Leading To Multibagger Returns5

Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like

split/bonusGain % indicates return since

purchase, *Stock sold as per price

mentioned

Stock Purchase

Date

Purchase Price

(Rs)

Price

29-02-2020

Bajaj Finance 14-Sep-15 514 4463

Motherson Sumi* 28-Jan-10 20.5 120

Honeywell Automation 30-Jun-14 5790 33037

Shree Cement 12-Nov-11 3983 22648

Eicher Motors* 08-Aug-13 3343 15249

Hitachi Life* 22-May-14 300 1360

Timken India 22-May-14 233 955

Maruti Suzuki 29-Jan-14 1659 6284

HDFC Bank 28-Oct-10 335 1178

Ramco Cements* 28-Mar-14 213 738

Whirlpool Of India 02-Mar-16 644 2176

Teamlease Services* 30-Nov-16 872 2908

Shankara Building Products* 06-Apr-17 570 1896

HDFC 10-Dec-10 669 2177

3M India 24-Nov-14 6475 20627

Eveready* 29-Sep-14 102 302

Bayer Cropscience* 05-May-14 1427 4052

Infosys 26-Nov-09 268.5 731

Indo Count Industries* 19-Dec-14 297 785

Capital Trust* 29-Jun-15 253 601

Minda Industries* 06-Mar-17 148 350

Mannapuram Finance* 16-Dec-15 29 69

ITD Cementation* 23-Feb-15 65 143

Gabriel India* 01-Aug-14 55 114

KNR Construction* 03-Dec-14 304 608

768%

484%

471%

469%

356%

353%

310%

279%

252%

246%

238%

233%

233%

225%

219%

196%

184%

172%

164%

138%

136%

135%

120%

108%

100%

Gain (%)

Page 6: Protect Capital · Leading To Multibagger Returns 5 Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonus Gain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as

AAA Portfolio Superior Earnings Growth

Earnings MatrixSensex

FY19

AAA IOP

FY19

Sensex

FY20E

AAA IOP

FY20E

Sensex

FY21E

AAA IOP

FY21E

EPS G(%) 8.0% 14.4% 15.0% 23.4% 15.0% 18.6%

ROE(%) 13.3% 15.1% 14.4% 16.2% 15.5% 17.0%

P/E(x) 21.1 33.3 18.3 27.3

P/BV(x) 3.0 6.4 2.8 5.4

14.4%

23.4%

18.5%

8.0%

15.0% 15.0%

FY19 FY20E FY21E

EPS Growth(%)

AAA IOP Sensex

Source: AAA Research

15.1%16.2%

17.0%

13.3%14.4%

15.5%

FY19 FY20E FY21E

ROE(%)

AAA IOP Sensex

Source: AAA Research

6

Source: AAA Research

Page 7: Protect Capital · Leading To Multibagger Returns 5 Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonus Gain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as

Wealth Creation – A Case Study

Global home textile segment of $74bn growing at 5%

USA imports 17% made ups with imports growing at ~12%

Huge opportunity to improve market share for Indian

players in USA and Europe

India expected to become the 5th largest consumer durables

market by 2025, reaching $400 Bn by 2020

Total Size of Indian A/C industry pegged at Rs.14750 Crs, with

volume growth expectation of CAGR 13-15% over FY16-20E

At 3%, India is one of the lowest penetrated market, leading

to significant headroom for growth

4th largest bed sheet exporter to USA & 13th largest globally

Capacity expansion from 36 to 68 mn meters in last 5 years

and further expanding to 90 mn meters

Focus on improving value chain by entering premium bed

linen segment leading to improved operating margins

No major investment in backward integration – leading to

highest ROE of 44% in the industry

Market share of ~8%

Entry into Tier 2&3 markets with sub premium product

to improve its market share

Launched new products to reach mass consumer levels

Strong parentage means access to new technology to

offer world class products to Indian consumers

Reported healthy revenue and profit growth in last 5 years

Ongoing expansion will lead to healthy profit growth over

next 2-3 years

Purchased at one year forward PE of ~6x significantly lower

considering its net profit size (Rs 100 crs+ FY14) and 45% ROE

Expect significant growth in profitability backed by

operating efficiency and higher volume growth

Market cap at Rs 800 crs, i.e. PER of below 10x FY15E –

lowest in the industry compared to all consumer MNC

which trades at average PE of >20x

M1Market

Size

M2Market Share

M3Margin

of Safety

Indo Count Industries Ltd Hitachi Home and Life Solutions Ltd

7

Page 8: Protect Capital · Leading To Multibagger Returns 5 Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonus Gain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as

The Investment Process….

Stock Identification1

Identify emerging trends and opportunities from a

universe of 600 companies

Filter approach – using variety of valuation

parameters

Focus on earnings, free cash flow, ROE, long term

growth and profitability trends

Portfolio Construction Monitoring & Nurturing3

Combination of Top Down and Bottom Up approach with a

benchmark agnostic strategy to achieve Long term

investment objective

Continuous portfolio monitoring ensures prudent risk

management

Regular interaction to provide strategic inputs to strengthen

systems, controls and CG in line with best practices

Analysis & Decision making Process2Initial screening

Corporate meeting and detailed due diligence

Identify sustainable competitive advantage

Exiting & Realizing Value4Constant evaluation of valuation metrics to

decide optimum return potential

Intrinsic value V/s Current Market Price to

evaluate Margin of Safety

Change in underlying assumptions of investment

thesis

8

Page 9: Protect Capital · Leading To Multibagger Returns 5 Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonus Gain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as

Exit from Sensex 01 Jan 2011 Vs

01 Jan 2001

Exit from Sensex 30 May 2016 vs

01 Jan 2011

ACC DLF

Ambuja Cement Hindalco

Bajaj Holdings Jaiprakash Associates

Castrol India JSPL

GSK PharmaReliance

Communication

Grasim Sterlite

HPCL Tata Power

MTNL

Novartis

Ranbaxy

Reliance Infra

Reliance Petro

Satyam

Zee

Monitoring of the Portfolio is critical

Exit Strategy As Important As EntryStrategy 9

Name of company Peak Price (Rs)

Low Price (Rs)

MTNL 200 10

Reliance Infra 2500 220

DLF 1200 72

Jaiprakash Associates 312 5.1

Reliance Communication 820 5.7

Tata Power 155 56

Page 10: Protect Capital · Leading To Multibagger Returns 5 Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonus Gain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as

MarketOutlook

Page 11: Protect Capital · Leading To Multibagger Returns 5 Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonus Gain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as

11

GDP Growth rate(2002-03) – 3.9%

GDP Growth rate(2008-09) – 3.1%

GDP Growth rate(2012-13) – 4.5%

Next 5 year Stock Return(April 2003 – Mar 2008)

Next 5 year Stock Return(April 2009 – Mar 2014)

Next 5 year Stock Return(April 2013 – Mar 2018)

BSE Sensex 408% 126% 75%

BSE Midcap 615% 135% 157%

BSE Small Cap 840% 112% 186%

After year of low GDP growth as economy revived, Stock markets have reported outstanding returns for next 5 years

Economic Recovery = Superior Returns

Page 12: Protect Capital · Leading To Multibagger Returns 5 Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonus Gain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as

2018/19 - Market Divergence12

Source: Bloomberg

Source: BloombergSource: Ace Equity

Historic divergence in indices in last 14 years

222.7%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

CY0

4

CY0

5

CY0

6

CY0

7

CY0

8

CY0

9

CY1

0

CY1

1

CY1

2

CY1

3

CY1

4

CY1

5

CY1

6

CY1

7

CY1

8

Concentrated performance - Top 10 stocks by weight contributed a whopping ~223% gain in Nifty

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

CY0

4

CY0

5

CY0

6

CY0

7

CY0

8

CY0

9

CY1

0

CY1

1

CY1

2

CY1

3

CY1

4

CY1

5

CY1

6

CY1

7

CY1

8

YTD

19

Nifty NSE Mid100 Index NSE Small Index

(%)

Nifty: +8.5% Midcap: -2.9% Smallcap: -6.8%

Jan18-Dec19:Nifty: +15.6%Midcap: -16.0%Smallcap: -28.8%

32

23

37

20

29

36

40

103

80

68

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

>60%

40% to 60%

20% to 40%

10% to 20%

0% to 10%

-10% to 0%

-20% to -10%

-40% to -20%

-60% to -40%

< -60%

No. of stocks

Ret

urn

From Jan18-Dec19:70% of BSE500 stocks registered negative returns & 54% of BSE500 stocks registered decline of more than 20%

Page 13: Protect Capital · Leading To Multibagger Returns 5 Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonus Gain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as

Polarisation to Normalisation13

Phase 1: Jan18-Jul19: Polarisation which started in Jan18 continued till July19. All companies within mid/small cap companies were punished irrespective of their fundamentals: Mid and small cap indices registered 26% and 37% decline respectively from its peak.

Phase2: Aug19-Nov19: Mid cap companies with strong fundamentals started performing in line with market – Mid/small cap Index registered gains in line with market gain of ~8%.

Phase3: Reality check – whereby mid/small cap companies with strong fundamentals will outperform – initial signs of revival visible.

2017/2018

Highest Price

2018/2019

Lowest Price

Price (Rs) Price (Rs)

Shree cement Large Cap 19,704 13,514 20,364 51% 424%

Honeywell Automation Mid Cap 19,988 15,753 27,315 73% 374%

Timken India Small Cap 983 501 922 84% 296%

Whirlpool of India Mid Cap 1,760 1,345 2,373 76% 271%

Balaji Amines Small Cap 754 218 399 83% 25%

Prestige Estate Mid Cap 345 169 338 100% 49%

% Increase

from recent

low

AAAPMS Gains

since Initial

Purchase Price

Current Price

31 Dec 2019

(Rs)

Company Name Classification

Few examples:

Page 14: Protect Capital · Leading To Multibagger Returns 5 Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonus Gain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as

Opportunity: Marketcap Vs Netprofit14

*Considered companies with net profit Rs 10 crs+ (FY19) but including loss making companies above Rs.5000cr MCAP)

2.1%

36.0%

17…

14.4% 14.2%15.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Lossmaking

10 - 50 50 -100

100 -200

200 -500

500+

Net profit size (Rs. crs.)

NP size classification of listed companies

*No of companies % of Total companies

Large cos by NP = 44.0%

34.9%

25.8%

12.1%

6.3% 6.1%5.9% 4.2%2.1% 2.6%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0 -

50

0

50

0 -

2k

2k

- 5

k

5k

- 8

k

8k

- 1

5k

15

k -

25

k

25

k -

50

k

50

k -

10

0k

10

0k+

Market cap (Rs. crs.)

Market cap classification of listed companies

No of Listed companies % of Total listed companies

Large cos bymcap = only 9%

Page 15: Protect Capital · Leading To Multibagger Returns 5 Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonus Gain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as

15Advantage Multicap

Year SENSEXBSE

MIDCAPBSE

SmallCap

FY09 -37.9% -54.0% -58.6%

FY10 80.5% 130.2% 161.7%

FY11 10.9% 1.0% -3.8%

FY12 -10.5% -7.7% -18.9%

FY13 8.2% -3.2% -12.4%

FY14 18.8% 15.3% 21.8%

FY15 24.9% 49.5% 54.0%

FY16 -9.4% 0.3% -3.2%

FY17 16.9% 32.7% 36.9%

FY18 11.3% 13.2% 17.7%

FY19 17.3% -3.0% -11.6%

Large vs Mid vs Small cap Indices performance varies significantly in each of last 10 years.

Mulitcap provides flexibility and opportunity to invest across different market cap without worrying about timing the market for a particular market cap.

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

01

-Mar

-09

01

-Dec

-09

01

-Sep

-10

01

-Ju

n-1

1

01

-Mar

-12

01

-Dec

-12

01

-Sep

-13

01

-Ju

n-1

4

01

-Mar

-15

01

-Dec

-15

01

-Sep

-16

01

-Ju

n-1

7

01

-Mar

-18

01

-Dec

-18

01

-Sep

-19

Drawdown

Drawdown Sensex

Drawdown BSE Midcap

Drawdown BSE Smallcap

Maximum Drawdown in Midcap at 38% and Smallcap at 51% is significantly higher than SENSEX drawdown of 25% during last 10 years.

Multicap hence is better option as it limits downside in negative market environment.

Under Performance Out Performance Neutral

Page 16: Protect Capital · Leading To Multibagger Returns 5 Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonus Gain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as

Drivers Of Growth – Investment By Government16

Source: Emkay Research, AAA Research

0.6

6.1

12.6

-0.6

25.8

10.7

-3.9

20.3

6.2

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

Capital Expenditure Growth(%)

Source: Emkay Research, AAA Research

Source: IDFC Research Report

19163621

798010098

16271 17055

20000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E

Highway Project Awarded(kms)

Source: IDFC Research Report, AAA Research

5732

4260 4410

6061

8231

9829 10000

1612

12

17

2327

27

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E

Highway project CompletedLength completed (km) Km/day(RHS)

5

12 11

16

32

-4

22 22

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E

Railways Expenditure growth (%)

Page 17: Protect Capital · Leading To Multibagger Returns 5 Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonus Gain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as

17

Source : SIAM, AAA Research

Source : RBI Press Release

Source : MOSPI

Source : CRISIL Report

Source : CEIC

Economic/Industry Indicators

Source : IDFC Securities Research

1.83.0

7.1

4.8

10.1

5.46.4

1.9

-3.9

-1.6

-1.2

2.9

5.7

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

Major port Traffic (%YoY)

52.6

51.8

52.752.1

52.551.8

51.4

50.651.2

52.7

55.3

54.5

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

56

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Feb

-20

PMI Manufacturing Index

13.212.3 11.9 11.4 11.1 11.4

9.8

8.1 8.37.2 7.0

8.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Bank Non-food credit (%YoY)

13.1

-0.4

16.2

2.8

-1.7

7.9

-5.0

-2.1

-7.7

4.05.4 6.0

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Cement production (%YoY)

(0.09)

0.01 (0.01)

(0.07)(0.07)

(0.21)(0.21)(0.22)

(0.08)

(0.18)

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Capital Goods production (%YoY)

-60

-40

-20

0

20

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Sep

-19

Oct

-19

No

v-1

9

Dec

-19

Jan

-20

Vehicle sales YoY G%

PV (%YoY) 2W (%YoY) CV (%YoY)

Page 18: Protect Capital · Leading To Multibagger Returns 5 Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonus Gain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as

India Economy Recovery: Likely Repeat of FY03-08

Source: RBI, AAA Research

GDP Growth(%)

4.2

5.4

3.8

8.07.1

9.5 9.6 9.3

6.7

8.6 8.9

6.7

4.5 4.7

7.4 7.68.2

7.2 6.8

FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Average GDP: 7.1%

Average GDP: 7.1%

Source: CSO,MOSL, AAA Research

IIP Growth(%)

5

2.7

5.77

11.7

8.6

12.9

15.5

2.55.3

8.2

2.9

1.1

-0.1

2.8 2.54.6 4.3

3.6

FY01 FY02 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Average IIP: 8.6%

Average IIP: 3.4%

18

Page 19: Protect Capital · Leading To Multibagger Returns 5 Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonus Gain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as

Focus On Stock Earnings Growth -Earnings Growth To Bounce Back

After reporting single digit earnings growth (FY09-19),

Sensex is expected to report healthy double digit

growth (FY19-21E)

38.7%Sensex CAGR

FY03-08

-1.9%Sensex CAGR

FY97-03

8.6%Sensex CAGR

FY08-19

Sensex CAGR ??

FY19-21E

Source: Bloomberg , AAA Research

0.5%EPS CAGR

25%EPS CAGR

6.0%EPS CAGR

15%EPS CAGR

19

266 291 278 280 216 236 272361

446540

720833 820 834

10241124 1185

1340 1354 1340 13531462

1579

1815

2142

FY9

7

FY9

8

FY9

9

FY0

0

FY0

1

FY0

2

FY0

3

FY0

4

FY0

5

FY0

6

FY0

7

FY0

8

FY0

9

FY1

0

FY1

1

FY1

2

FY1

3

FY1

4

FY1

5

FY1

6

FY1

7

FY1

8

FY1

9

FY2

0E

FY2

1E

Page 20: Protect Capital · Leading To Multibagger Returns 5 Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonus Gain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as

Earnings growth critical for returns

BSE500 universe ex Loss making companies3 years 5 years 10 years

Net ProfitCAGR (%)

(Mar-19/Mar-16) (Mar-19/Mar-14) (Mar-19/Mar-09)

No of CompaniesMarket Cap

CAGR (%)No of Companies

Market Cap CAGR (%)

No of CompaniesMarket Cap

CAGR (%)

80% + 8 1.4% 5 22.8% 0

50-80% 14 19.1% 9 39.7% 5 84.7%

30-50% 38 18.8% 28 40.0% 26 40.7%

20-30% 38 25.7% 44 27.1% 58 26.7%

15-20% 36 19.9% 46 21.0% 51 25.7%

10-15% 40 14.7% 49 15.8% 43 17.3%

5-10% 37 14.6% 45 12.6% 36 17.8%

0-5% 26 4.2% 30 2.3% 28 6.8%

0- (20)% 48 -0.6% 36 5.1% 23 12.6%

Less than -20% 15 14% 8 9.6% 2 4.2%

Total 300 300 272

NIFTY 14.5% 11.6% 14.4%

SENSEX 15.3% 12.6% 14.8%

No of co. 15%+ CAGR Net Profit

134 132 140

Source: AAA Research

20

Page 21: Protect Capital · Leading To Multibagger Returns 5 Note: Purchase price adjusted for any corporate action like split/bonus Gain % indicates return since purchase, *Stock sold as

Market Valuations

Source: Bloomberg, AAA Research

Sensex @38297 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E

EPS (Rs) 834 1024 1123 1185 1340 1355 1340 1353 1462 1579 1815 2088

EPS G(%) 2% 23% 10% 6% 13% 1% -1% 1% 8% 8% 15% 15%

BV (Rs) 5101 5944 6842 7790 8862 9540 10143 10684 11269 11900 12626 13461

P/E(x) 24.3 21.1 18.3

P/BV(x) 3.2 3.0 2.8

ROE(%) 16.3% 17.2% 16.4% 15.2% 15.1% 14.2% 13.2% 12.7% 13.0% 13.3% 14.4% 15.5%

Source: AAA Research

21

Source: AAA Research

Mean 18.2x

Mean 2.6x

7

12

17

22

27

No

v/0

9

No

v/1

0

No

v/1

1

No

v/1

2

No

v/1

3

No

v/1

4

No

v/1

5

No

v/1

6

No

v/1

7

No

v/1

8

No

v/1

9

PER Fwd (x)

PER Fwd(x)

1.3

2.3

3.3

4.3

5.3

No

v/0

9

No

v/1

0

No

v/1

1

No

v/1

2

No

v/1

3

No

v/1

4

No

v/1

5

No

v/1

6

No

v/1

7

No

v/1

8

No

v/1

9

P/BV Fwd (x)

P/BV Fwd(x)

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The people running the show at

AlfAccurate Advisors

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The AlfAccurate Advisors Team23

Rajesh Kothari

Founder and Managing Director

Head Operations and Compliance

Bhushan KoliGovind Agrawal

Director

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Mr. Rajesh Kothari

Founder & Managing Director (Grad CWA, MBA)

Award Winning Investment Team

Rich experience of more than 24 years in Indian capital market

Expertise in both Long Only & Long Short investment strategy

Former Director with Voyager Investment Advisors (US$500m) –

USA based India dedicated fund for two and half years

• During his tenure, fund Outperformed the benchmark

indices significantly

Former Fund Manager with DSP Merrill Lynch (now DSP Blackrock)

Fund Managers Ltd for more than four years

• During his tenure equity assets under management grew

from USD100m to USD1.5bn

• The schemes delivered annualized return of 55% (Equity

Fund) & 62% (Top100 Fund) outperforming benchmark

indices by more than 20% & 10% respectively

• The equity schemes maintained its “1st Quartile Ranking”

consistently during his tenure

Received CMA Young Achiever Award 2014

Rated as “Platinum Fund Manager” by Economic Times for DSP ML Equity

Fund on a risk-adjusted return basis in July 2006

Rated as “Gold Fund Manager” by Economic Times for DSP ML Balanced

Fund on a risk-adjusted return basis in July 2006

CNBC TV18 - CRISIL Mutual Fund of the Year Award 2006 for DSPML Equity

Fund

Lipper India Fund Awards 2006 for best equity fund group for 3 years

DSPML Technology.com Fund - best fund in the equity sector in the IT

category (5 years, 8 eligible schemes)

He was invited at Maharashtra Economic Summit to present views on

Indian Infrastructure

(http: //maharashtrasummit.mieda.in/Program.aspx)

Invited by Institute of Directors to present views on Governance Deficit

Invited by World Council for Corporate Governance to present views on

Governance

Elected on the advisory panel of World CSR forum.

Actively involved with Arham Yuva Group - a philanthropic initiative

Achievements

24

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Glimpses Of Superior Performance ToBenchmark Index

-6.0

133.0

38.9

84.7

5.8 5.618.6

4.3 11.229.0

71.7

2.528 25.0

-4.3-11

85

17

70.5

-7.9

3.9 7.5

-9.1

4.817.1

33.2

-7.8

24.011.8 8.4

FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 Jun06-08Voyager

FY10* FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19

Consistent Superior returns to Benchmark Index

Funds Managed by Rajesh Benchmark Index

DSP MerillLynch MF AlfAccurate Advisors

*(FY10 is from 23 Nov 2009 - 31 Mar 2010)

Note: Past performance may or may not be sustained in future

25

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

FY03 FY05 Jun06-Dec08 FY11 FY13 FY15 FY17 FY19

Funds managed by Rajesh BSE 500 Index

22.6% CAGR

12.0% CAGR

Rs 1 cr invested in Mar02 is worth presently Rs 30.53 crs

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Mr. Govind Agrawal

Director(FCA – Chartered Accountant, LLB)

Rich experience of 30 years in finance out of which last 24 years in Indian capital market

Former Fund Manager with Reliance Capital Asset Management Company (USD 20bn)

for over four years.

• Reliance Emergent India Fund (USD 100m offshore fund) outperformed benchmark

indices by 35% since its inception.

• Travelled intensely across globe to meet the investors and presented the firm for

India and Emerging Market as Investment Theme

• Played instrumental role in setting up Macro Economic Research desk

Former Executive Director with UBS Securities India Pvt Ltd, a Swiss Bank subsidiary, for 4

years

• Responsible for India Account Manager for large FIIs

• Guided the portfolio managers for right country, sectors and stocks weightings

Former Senior VP – Equity Sales with Motilal Oswal Securities Ltd for 10 years

• Played key role in establishing institutional equity broking business, systems and

processes

• Was account manager for major institutional domestic and foreign accounts advising

the clients on sectoral allocation and stock selection

Achievements

Award Winning Investment Team

Represented Reliance AMC on international

platforms and panel discussion on Emerging

Markets and Indian Equity Market

Addressed investors’ meet and the private banking

teams of large banks in Middle East, Asia, London,

Europe and in India

At UBS, was voted as the “Best Equity Sales

Person‐Mega Funds category, Asia Money 2006”

Won several awards at Motilal Oswal for

consistently contributing to Institutional Equity

Sales

26

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The

AlfAccurate Advisorsphilosophy

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AlfAccurate Advisors

Credentials

We are specialists in Indian capital markets with combined

experience of 70+ years

Investment Principle

Protect Capital, Create Wealth

Vision

To be the world’s most admired investment advisor

28

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Our Guiding Principles29

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Investment Philosophy...

Fundamental Research core ofour investment management

Constant endeavor to be ahead of the Market

Emphasis on value research Vs commodity research

Benchmark aware butnot driven

Flexible investment style

Focus on margin of safety

Long Term Horizon

30

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Combined With Investment Discipline...

Parameter Rules Current Position

Cap Exposure At least 40% in Large cap (as per SEBI norms) 48.9% invested in Large cap

Sector Weightage Not more than 35% in one sector Maximum exposure in a given sector is 26%

Stock WeightageNot more than 10% in a given stock and not more than

50% in the top 10 StocksMaximum Exposure in a given stock is 4.4%.

Top 10 stocks as percentage of portfolio is 33.5%

Number of Stocks Minimum 30 Stocks 51 stocks

Stock Universe 600 Corporates 600 Corporates

Data as on: 29 Feb 202051

Number of Stocks

15Number of Sectors

33.5%Top 10 Stocks as % of portfolio

31

Note: Market Cap classification as per SEBI new norms

49%

23%

25%

4%

Market Cap Allocation

Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap Cash0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Retail

Real Estate

Staffing

Telecom

Auto

Oil & Gas

Cement

Transport

Chemicals

Software

Auto Ancillary

Pharma

Engineering

Consumer

Banking

Sectoral Allocation

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AAA India Opportunity Plan - Equity Vs BSE 500 Index (%)

Performance (%)FY20YTD#

FY19 FY18 FY17 FY16 FY15 FY14 FY13 FY12 FY11Since

Inception*

AAA India Opp. Plan

1.6 (4.3) 25.0 28.0 2.5 71.7 29.0 11.2 4.3 18.6 413.6

BSE 500 Index (4.4) 8.3 11.8 24.0 (7.8) 33.2 17.1 4.8 (9.1) 7.5 119.7

BSE Midcap Index

(5.7) (3.0) 13.2 32.7 0.3 49.5 15.3 (3.2) (7.7) 1.0 125.1

BSE SmallcapIndex

(8.8) (11.6) 17.7 36.9 (3.2) 54.0 21.8 (12.4) (18.9) (3.8) 80.6

CNX Nifty (3.6) 14.9 10.2 18.5 (8.9) 26.7 18.0 7.3 (9.2) 11.1 119.5

Note: Returns of individual clients may differ depending on time of entry in the Strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments

32Leading To Superior Performance

*(23 November 2009 – 29 Feb 2020) (Performance after all expenses & fixed management fees but before performance fees)

#(01 Apr 2019 – 29 Feb 2020)

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33

Performance (%)

CLIENT INTRODUCTION DATE- 11 Oct 2018

1 MONTH 3 MONTHS 6 MONTHS 12 MONTHS

Feb-20 Nov-19 Aug-19 Feb-19

Client performance AAA IOP -3.2% 2.4% 12.3% 12.2%

BSE 500 Index -6.5% -6.0% 2.8% 3.0%

BSE Midcap Index -5.6% -3.2% 8.4% 2.0%

BSE SmallCap Index -6.5% 1.1% 9.4% 0.1%

CNX Nifty -6.4% -7.1% 1.6% 3.8%

Cash level 5.1% 2.3% 5.8% 25.4%

Stagger Investment Approach

Staggered investment approach has helped to protect the downside

Performance for the New client introduced on 11 Oct 2018 & Cash levels

-3.2%

2.4%

12.3% 12.2%

-6.4% -7.1%

1.6%3.8%

-6.5%

-6.0%

2.8% 3.0%

-5.6%

-3.2%

8.4%

2.0%

-6.5%

1.1%

9.4%

0.1%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

1 month 3 month 6 month 12 month

Client performance Nifty BSE500 BSE Midcap BSE SmallCap

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Compounded Annual Returns (%)

1 YEAR 3 YEARS 5 YEARS 10 YEARSSince

Inception*

AAA India Opp. Plan PMS 9.4% 8.3% 9.8% 17.7% 17.3%

BSE 500 Index 3.0% 6.3% 5.0% 8.4% 8.0%

BSE Midcap Index 2.0% 2.5% 6.2% 8.6% 8.2%

BSE Smallcap Index 0.1% 0.0% 4.0% 5.4% 5.9%

CNX Nifty 3.8% 8.1% 4.7% 8.6% 8.0%

*(23 Nov 2009 – 29 Feb 2020) (Performance after all expenses & fixed management fees but before performance fees)

34Leading To Superior Performance

Note: Returns of individual clients may differ depending on time of entry in the Strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments

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Risk Analysis :AAA IOP PMS Performance Compared To Benchmark

Parameters How to read ratioAAA IOP

PMSBSE500 Index

AAA IOP PMS performance

BetaLess than 1 beta is good sign as it

denotes lower volatility of the portfolio

0.77 1.0Beta of less than 1 shows AAA PMS has

lesser volatility compared to BSE500 Index

Sharpe Ratio Excess return per unit of deviation. Higher the Sharpe ratio, better it is.

0.72 0.1Top Performing Midcap MFs have Sharpe Ratio 0.75+. AAA IOP PMS Sharpe ratio is

one of the best in the industry.

Standard DeviationStandard deviation denotes amount

of variation14.3 15.7

AAA IOP SD is less than Benchmark as well as peer group which shows portfolio

has lower risk

Upside capture It denotes overall performance of

PMS during up markets. 176.5 100.0

Upside capture ratio of more than 100 indicates that fund has outperformed Benchmark during positive markets.

Downside captureIt denotes overall performance of

PMS during down markets. 92.6 100.0

Ratio of less than 100 indicates, fund has outperformed Benchmark during

negative markets.

Capture Ratio

Capture ratio >1 indicates, Investment Manager has gained

more during up (positive) markets and lost less during down (negative)

markets.

1.9 1AAA PMS capture ratio is healthy as it

protected capital during negative markets and building wealth consistently.

Data is analysed since inception of AAA IOP PMS data i.e. 23 Nov 2009 – 29 Feb 2020

35

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AAA IOP PMS Rolling Return Analysis

Monthly Rolling Returns Analysis(%)

AAA IOP 1 Year

BSE500 Index 1 Year

AAA IOP3 Years

BSE500Index 3 Years

AAA IOP 5 Years

BSE500 Index 5 years

No of obervations 113.0 113.0 89.0 89.0 65.0 65.0

No of Positive Observations 91.0 85.0 89.0 83.0 65.0 65.0

No of Negative Observations 22.0 28.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0

Loss Probability (%) 19.5% 24.8% 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0%

Average Returns (%) 19.5% 9.7% 21.7% 10.7% 23.6% 11.3%

Median Returns (%) 15.2% 7.6% 20.7% 11.4% 24.1% 11.9%

Maximum Returns (%) 88.8% 51.3% 41.0% 22.9% 30.7% 18.9%

Minimum Returns (%) -18.0% -27.4% 4.4% -4.2% 9.8% 5.0%

Since Inception (23 Nov 2009 – 29 Feb 2020) (Performance after all expenses & fixed management fees but before performance fees)

AAA has delivered average returns of 19.5%, 21.7% and 23.6% for 1 year, 3 years and 5 years respectively on

monthly rolling return basis

Negative returns for 3 years and 5 years rolling periods are 0.

Note: Returns of individual clients may differ depending on time of entry in the Strategy. Past performance may or may not besustained in future and should not be used as a basis for comparison with other investments

36

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Strong Risk Management and Ownership in Best Businesses

~48.9% in large cap and ~22.7% in Midcap & ~24.5% in Small cap

Top 10 stocks ~33.5% of portfolio – less concentration risk

Invested in best of the businesses with large profit size and low leverage with superior earnings growth

In India, only 542 companies out of 5000 listed companies have reported Rs 100 crs+ net profit

in FY19. ~92.1% of AAA portfolio companies reported net profit Rs 100 crs and above (55% of portfolio

companies net profit Rs 500 crs+ and 37% of portfolio companies – net profit Rs 100-500

crs)(ex cash). Hence all these companies are large companies in terms of profit size.~57.7% of portfolio companies are debt free and ~28.9% of portfolio companies D/E less than

1:1 (ex banking and fin). This implies strong balance sheet of the companies.

In long term market is mirror of earnings growth hence earnings growth is critical. AAAPMS

companies delivered 16% earnings growth in FY19 and we expect it to deliver 18%+ CAGR during

FY19-21

Portfolio Update AlfAccurate Advisors PMS37

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Note: Equity return scenarios are assumed expected returns.

12% CAGR 15% CAGR 20% CAGR

30Yrs

150 Cr

9 Cr

20Yrs5Yrs 10Yrs

16 Cr

48Cr

331 Cr

20 Cr

5Yrs

82 Cr

20Yrs 30Yrs10Yrs

10 Cr

10Yrs 30Yrs

717 Cr

20Yrs

137 Cr

26 Cr

5Yrs

11 Cr

30Yrs20Yrs

1,187 Cr

5Yrs

31 Cr

192 Cr

10Yrs

12 Cr

18% CAGR

The Power Of Compounding – AScenario Analysis

Scenarios based on investment of Rs 5 Crores

The real power of compounding is seen only over the long term

38

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Why we should be your choice of

Investment Advisory

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Why We Should Be Your Choice OfInvestment Advisory

Access to Founders – founders are fund managers

Process driven organization

Award winning investment team and track record

No conflict of interest

Staggered investment approach

Sound Research capabilities

Adequate infrastructure to support scalability

Integrity and ethics as the core of the business

Client centric business model

Strong domain knowledge in Indian Capital markets

Expertise in both – Long Only and Long Short Investment Strategy

40

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Product Features

Name of plan AAA India Opportunities Equity PMS Plan

Objective Long Term Capital Appreciation

Investment ThemeTo invest in listed companies with combination of high

growth stocks as well as value stocks

Principal Officer Rajesh Kothari

Director Govind Agrawal

Custodians HDFC Bank

Fund Accountant Deutsche Bank, India

Depository Participant HDFC Bank , Axis Bank Bank

Mode of payment Fund transfer/cheque/stock transfer

41

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Awards and Recognitions

Dr. Jitendra Singh, Union Minister of State (I/C), Prime Minister Office, giving

Certificate of Merit – CMA Young Achiever Award – 2014

Lipper Fund Award – India 2007

42

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Thank You

Rajesh KothariT : +91 22 4236 0301

M : +91 98200 [email protected]

Govind AgrawalT : +91 22 4236 0311M : +91 93208 [email protected]

AlfAccurate Advisors Pvt. Ltd503, B Wing, Naman Midtown,

Elphinstone Road, Mumbai - 400 013, India

T : +91 22 42360300; F : +91 22 42360333 [email protected]

Contact us

Disclaimer: Equity Investments are subject to market risks , read all plan related documents carefully. This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solelyfor your information and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. This material is for the personal information of the authorized recipient. The material is basedupon publicly available information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon. Opinions expressed are ourcurrent opinions as of the date appearing on this material only. Prospective investors and others are cautioned that any forward-looking statements are not predictions and may besubject to change without notice. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. No part of this material may be duplicated in any form and/or redistributed withoutAlfAccurate Advisors Pvt Ltd.'s prior written consent. In so far as this report includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy andcompleteness cannot be guaranteed. Alfaccurate Advisors Pvt. Ltd and any person connected with the firm, does not accept any liability arising from the use of this document.