prospects for growth - a strategic outlook | ceo josé sergio gabrielli de azevedo - brazil 2012 -...

16
1 Prospects for Growth: a Strategic Outlook José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo CEO November, 17th 2011 Brazil 2012 - Bradesco

Upload: petrobras

Post on 20-Aug-2015

2.081 views

Category:

Business


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

1

Prospects for Growth: a Strategic Outlook

José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo CEO

November, 17th 2011 Brazil 2012 - Bradesco

2

This presentation may contain forward-looking statements. Such statements reflect only the expectations of the Company's management regarding the future conditions of the economy, the industry, the performance and financial results of the Company, among other factors. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar expressions, are used to identify such statements. These predictions evidently involve risks and uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company. Consequently, these statements do not represent assurance of future results of the Company. Therefore, the Company's future results of operations may differ from current expectations, and readers must not base their expectations solely on the information presented herein. The Company is not obliged to update the presentation and forward-looking statements in light of new information or future developments. Amounts informed for the year 2011 and upcoming years are either estimates or targets.

The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally viable under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as discoveries, that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC.

Cautionary statement for U.S. investors:

DISCLAIMER

3 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011

Given the growth in emerging markets, oil demand will remain strong ...

4

... and Brazil will be the top non-OPEC contributor to the new supply of oil

Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2011

Major changes in supply 2010-2035

5 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011

Emerging markets’ growth potential can be assessed by their low oil consumption

6

769 782 733 802 859 841 796 871 946

327 366 410 374

379 414 439 481

488 222 212 203 221

230 219 208

227 235 492 489 505

501 565 578

525

539 539

3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11

Diesel Gasoline LPG Others

1810 1849 1851 1898 2033 2052

1968

2118 2208

+21%

Petrobras’ sales of oil products in Brazil has been growing at remarkable rates ... (t

ho

usa

nd

bp

d)

7

769 782 733 802 859 841 796 871 946

3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11

Diesel

+23%

... especially diesel ... (t

ho

usa

nd

bp

d)

+10%

8

327 366 410 374

379 414 439 481

488

3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11

Gasoline

... and gasoline (t

ho

usa

nd

bp

d)

+49%

+28%

9

220 236 233

402 508 446

248

259 260

109

162 160

842

1057 1035

98

124 108

228

297 295

2010 2015 (Scenario A) 2015 (Scenario B)

Others

Fuel Oil

Diesel

Jet Fuel

Naphta

Gasoline

LPG

We project sizable increases on the future demand of oil products in Brazil ...

4.2% p.a.

3.4% p.a.

(th

ou

san

d b

pd

)

2147

2643 2536

10

37

53 51

11

33 33

2

6 6

16

59 59

2010 2015 (Scenario A) 2015 (Scenario B)

Thermal Plants

Fertilizers

Refineries+NGPUs

Local Distributors

... as well as natural gas 17.7% p.a.

18.0% p.a.

(MM

m3/d

ay)

66

151 149

11

1504

490 736

1118

-47

463 245

1700

1507

637

200

240

192

Asia Middle East North America Latin America Europe FSU Africa

Expansion New Refineries

(Th

ou

san

d b

pd

) This growth calls for additional refining capacity, a movement peculiar to other fast-growth regions ...

Additional Refining Capacity (2011-2016)

Sources: Pira, Petrobras

12

... and for new equipments and critical resources

Additional capacity in the supply chain is due

immediately

Petrobras acts as a multiplier, not only fostering the growth of the Brazilian economy ...

... but also helping its suppliers develop on a

competitive basis

13

1,0 1,2

1,4 1,5

1,0 1,0 1,0 1,1

1,4

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11

28% 30%

32% 34%

16% 17% 17% 17%

22%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11

Net Debt / Capitalization (%)

25%

35%

2.5x

Net Debt/ EBITDA

Through a prudent capital structure …

14

1,4

17,8 16,9

23,7 25,9 21,5

33,0 28,9

35,2

28,2

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011/9M

14 14

69,2 95,7

111,1 136,6

158,2 170,6

215,1 182,7

213,3 180,4

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011/9M

Net operating revenues (R$ billion)

Net income (R$ billion)

... Petrobras has been achieving outstanding results ...

15

158,7

100,4

58,3

23,7

34,5

0,637

9,7

0,678

24,5

180,4

119,6

60,8

23,9

36,9

0,367

8,6

0,385

28,2

Revenues

COGS

Gross profit

Expenses

Operating profit

Financial results

Income tax

Minority interest

Net profit

9M10 9M11

+14%

+19%

+157%

-12%

+7%

+4%

+1%

-158%

+15%

... as can be seen on the 9M11 x 9M10 comparison

R$ billion

16

16