prospects for growth - a strategic outlook | ceo josé sergio gabrielli de azevedo - brazil 2012 -...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Prospects for Growth: a Strategic Outlook
José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo CEO
November, 17th 2011 Brazil 2012 - Bradesco
2
This presentation may contain forward-looking statements. Such statements reflect only the expectations of the Company's management regarding the future conditions of the economy, the industry, the performance and financial results of the Company, among other factors. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar expressions, are used to identify such statements. These predictions evidently involve risks and uncertainties, whether foreseen or not by the Company. Consequently, these statements do not represent assurance of future results of the Company. Therefore, the Company's future results of operations may differ from current expectations, and readers must not base their expectations solely on the information presented herein. The Company is not obliged to update the presentation and forward-looking statements in light of new information or future developments. Amounts informed for the year 2011 and upcoming years are either estimates or targets.
The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally viable under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as discoveries, that the SEC’s guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC.
Cautionary statement for U.S. investors:
DISCLAIMER
3 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011
Given the growth in emerging markets, oil demand will remain strong ...
4
... and Brazil will be the top non-OPEC contributor to the new supply of oil
Source: IEA, World Energy Outlook 2011
Major changes in supply 2010-2035
5 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2011
Emerging markets’ growth potential can be assessed by their low oil consumption
6
769 782 733 802 859 841 796 871 946
327 366 410 374
379 414 439 481
488 222 212 203 221
230 219 208
227 235 492 489 505
501 565 578
525
539 539
3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
Diesel Gasoline LPG Others
1810 1849 1851 1898 2033 2052
1968
2118 2208
+21%
Petrobras’ sales of oil products in Brazil has been growing at remarkable rates ... (t
ho
usa
nd
bp
d)
7
769 782 733 802 859 841 796 871 946
3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
Diesel
+23%
... especially diesel ... (t
ho
usa
nd
bp
d)
+10%
8
327 366 410 374
379 414 439 481
488
3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
Gasoline
... and gasoline (t
ho
usa
nd
bp
d)
+49%
+28%
9
220 236 233
402 508 446
248
259 260
109
162 160
842
1057 1035
98
124 108
228
297 295
2010 2015 (Scenario A) 2015 (Scenario B)
Others
Fuel Oil
Diesel
Jet Fuel
Naphta
Gasoline
LPG
We project sizable increases on the future demand of oil products in Brazil ...
4.2% p.a.
3.4% p.a.
(th
ou
san
d b
pd
)
2147
2643 2536
10
37
53 51
11
33 33
2
6 6
16
59 59
2010 2015 (Scenario A) 2015 (Scenario B)
Thermal Plants
Fertilizers
Refineries+NGPUs
Local Distributors
... as well as natural gas 17.7% p.a.
18.0% p.a.
(MM
m3/d
ay)
66
151 149
11
1504
490 736
1118
-47
463 245
1700
1507
637
200
240
192
Asia Middle East North America Latin America Europe FSU Africa
Expansion New Refineries
(Th
ou
san
d b
pd
) This growth calls for additional refining capacity, a movement peculiar to other fast-growth regions ...
Additional Refining Capacity (2011-2016)
Sources: Pira, Petrobras
12
... and for new equipments and critical resources
Additional capacity in the supply chain is due
immediately
Petrobras acts as a multiplier, not only fostering the growth of the Brazilian economy ...
... but also helping its suppliers develop on a
competitive basis
13
1,0 1,2
1,4 1,5
1,0 1,0 1,0 1,1
1,4
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
28% 30%
32% 34%
16% 17% 17% 17%
22%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11
Net Debt / Capitalization (%)
25%
35%
2.5x
Net Debt/ EBITDA
Through a prudent capital structure …
14
1,4
17,8 16,9
23,7 25,9 21,5
33,0 28,9
35,2
28,2
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011/9M
14 14
69,2 95,7
111,1 136,6
158,2 170,6
215,1 182,7
213,3 180,4
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011/9M
Net operating revenues (R$ billion)
Net income (R$ billion)
... Petrobras has been achieving outstanding results ...
15
158,7
100,4
58,3
23,7
34,5
0,637
9,7
0,678
24,5
180,4
119,6
60,8
23,9
36,9
0,367
8,6
0,385
28,2
Revenues
COGS
Gross profit
Expenses
Operating profit
Financial results
Income tax
Minority interest
Net profit
9M10 9M11
+14%
+19%
+157%
-12%
+7%
+4%
+1%
-158%
+15%
... as can be seen on the 9M11 x 9M10 comparison
R$ billion