prospects and opportunities for wind energy investments in greece · 2018. 11. 30. · small hydro...
TRANSCRIPT
PROSPECTS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR WIND ENERGY INVESTMENTS IN GREECE
Panagiotis G. Papastamatiou, Ph.DHellenic Wind Energy Association ELETAEN, CEO
HWEA: Hellenic Wind Energy Association
• Founded in 1990
• National representative of European wind energy association WindEurope
• Members: Companies and Scientists of wind power sector
• Nonprofit Organization (NPO)
Scope
✓ Express the well-meant interests of the industry and the market by acting as a think-tank and dialogue forum with scientific documentation and competence
✓ Promote the scientific research, technology and applications of wind energy
Development of wind energy over time
0,8 0 0,3 0,5 2,415,5
6,6 0,6 0,7 0 011
68
130
39
16
116
72
122
146
101
146159
168
313
114 115 110
159
234
282
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Installed capacity per year (MW)
411,1
21,0
24,7
26,4
26,9
29,9
38,2
38,9
60,4
60,6
67,0
80,2
105,5
188,8
200,5
238,2
250,7
285,5
536,1
OTHERS
INTRAKAT
BCI
CNI
WP IWECO
ENERCON Invest
JASPER ENERGY
RENINVEST
RF ENERGY
EUNICE
ENTEKA
PPC Renewables
MYTILINEOS GROUP
EREN GROUP
ENEL Green Power
EDF
IBERDROLA Rokas
ANEMOS (ELLAKTOR)
TERNA Energy
Installed MW per wind energy producer
Top wind energy producers, June 2018
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1987 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Min / Max / Weighted average - Rotor Diameter per Year (m)
A’18
Evolution of installed wind turbines
Development of RES over time
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Biomass 37 37 39 41 41 45 45 46 47 52 58 61
Small Hydro 74 96 158 183 197 205 213 220 220 224 227 230
PV 4 15 45 153 440 1536 2577 2596 2606 2611 2611
Wind 750 850 997 1155 1324 1637 1751 1866 1977 2136 2370 2652
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
Inst
alle
d C
apac
ity
(MW
)
Installed RES capacity in Greece, 2006 - 2017
Towards 2030
19,0%
25,0%
32,1%
23,8%
31,0%
43,0%
56,0%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
RES share in final electricity consumption, 56% by 2030
% share in final energy consumption
*Source: Draft National and Climate Plan 2030, Ministry of Environment and Energy
Required investments, 2020 -2030
✓ RES for electricity generation 8,5 bn €
✓ Electrical system (HV/SHV grids) 5,5 bn €
✓ Distribution grids – digitalization 3,3 bn €
✓ Conventional PPs (new – upgrades) 1,9 bn €
✓ Cross border NG pipelines 2,2 bn €
✓ NG networks and storage 2,2 bn €
✓ R&D 0,3 bn €
✓ Energy Efficiency 9,0 bn €
✓ General Total 32,7 bn €
*Source: Draft National and Climate Plan 2030, Ministry of Environment and Energy
Required investments, 2020 -2030
✓ RES for electricity generation 8,5 bn €
✓ Electrical system (HV/SHV grids) 5,5 bn €
✓ Distribution grids – digitalization 3,3 bn €
✓ Conventional PPs (new – upgrades) 1,9 bn €
✓ Cross border NG pipelines 2,2 bn €
✓ NG networks and storage 2,2 bn €
✓ R&D 0,3 bn €
✓ Energy Efficiency 9,0 bn €
✓ General Total 32,7 bn €
✓ Total related to RES-E 17,3 bn €
*Source: Draft National and Climate Plan 2030, Ministry of Environment and Energy
A new sustainable era for the new investments
✓ Sell electricity directly in the market
✓ Are subject to balancing responsibilities, unless no liquid intra-day market exist
✓ Operating aid is granted as a premium (Feed-in premium, FiP)
✓ Greece has designed a sliding FiP (sFiP) support mechanism
✓ Details on the sFiP in Greece may be found here:
http://eletaen.gr/the-effect-of-the-fip-scheme-to-the-revenues-of-a-wind-farm/
✓ The support mechanism has been approved by European Commission SA.44666,C(2016) 7272 final / 16.11.2016
A new sustainable era for the new investments
✓ Participation in the market means more opportunities for additional income (e.g.through market optimization techniques, provision of balancing services etc.)….
…… but also more risks and costs
✓ The RES producers can outsource the new obligations to aggregators
✓ In Greece, a new design of the whole electricity marker is currently underimplementation
➢ forward market
➢ day-ahead market
➢ intra-day market
➢ balancing market with imbalance clearance
Sliding Feed in Premium
The remuneration of the energy generated by a wind farm is based on the Reference Value. For simplified practical reasons, the following can be written :
Reference Value = Reference Market Price + Premium
1. Reference market price is calculated as the hourly system marginal price (i.e. theDay-ahead price) increased by the value corresponding to other wholesale marketmechanisms if existed.
2. The Premium is calculated on a monthly base, taking into account the electricityproduced by all wind farms, in a way incentivizing the ones producing more valuableelectricity i.e. at hours with higher market prices.
Based on simulation studies the RV will fluctuated less than ±1,5%
Sliding Feed in Premium through auctions
✓ After 2017 the RV is determined by auctions launched by the Regulatory Authorityfor Energy (RAE)
✓ The auction system has been approved by European Commission SA.48143 (2017/N),C(2017) 9102 final / 4.1.2018
✓ The auctions are electronical/online ones as per the reverse yankee model
✓ Mainly, there will be auctions:
• for PVs up to 20MW
• for Wind onshore 3-50MW
• common auctions for PVs and Wind onshore with larger capacity
✓ Online scheduled auctions in Greece:
✓ The first auction was on July 2, 2018✓ Next scheduled on December 10, 2018
1st Auctions result
PV≤1 MW 1MW<PV≤20MW 3MW<Wind≤50MW
Maximum auctioned capacity (MW) 70 230 300
Final auctioned capacity (MW), 75% 53,52 53,40 176,39
Starting bid (€/MWh) 85 80 90
Minimum level of competition 75% 75% 75%
Awarded capacity 53,48 MW 52,92 MW 170,93 MW
Lowest – Highest selected bid (€/MWh) 75,87 – 80 62,97 - 71 68,18 – 71,93
Weighted average of bids (€/MWh) 78,42 63,81 69,53
2nd Auction
PV≤1 MW 1MW<PV≤20MW 3MW<Wind≤50MW
Submitted applications (MW) 114,61 151,32 281,65
Max auctioned capacity (MW), 75% 65,49 86,47 160,94
Starting bid* (€/MWh) 81,71 71,91 79,77
Minimum level of competition 75% 75% 75%
*Starting bid is calculated as the average of the previous auction starting bid and the weighted average of bids. For example, the starting bid for the windcategory is the average of 90€/MWh and 69,53€/MWh which are respectively the starting bid and the weighted average of bids of the first auction.
December 10, 2018
Day ahead price
48,76
43,92
40,78
38,9741,25
41,3142,60
39,0739,94
43,17 43,11
51,09
74,60
56,22
46,22
44,5745,73
51,32
52,5450,57
53,0654,88
70,45
56,19
53,50
51,63
44,28
50,35
56,32
60,69
64,4263,88
67,06
➢ Historical data of the day ahead price, 2016-today
*Source: Operator of electricity market and Hellenic Energy Exchange SA
Key facts and figures on Greek Economy
-5,4%
-9,1%
-7,3%
-3,2%
0,7%
-0,3%-0,2%
1,4%2,0%
2,4% 2,3% 2,1%1,8%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
REAL GDP GROWTH (%)
Real GDP growth (%) Estimation
During the economic crisis, the Greek economy lost a quarter of its GDP. Since the last year, economy returned to positive GDP growth.
➢ Regulatory reforms, tax reductions and investments increasement will boost public confidence of the markets and investors.
*Source: Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) – Hellenic Fiscal Council
Key facts and figures on Greek Economy
-10,3%
-8,9%
-13,2%
-3,6%
-5,7%
0,6% 0,8% 0,50% 0,40%
-10,0%
-3,8%
-2,0% -1,6%
-0,2%
-1,1% -0,8%
-0,50% -0,60%
-14,0%
-13,0%
-12,0%
-11,0%
-10,0%
-9,0%
-8,0%
-7,0%
-6,0%
-5,0%
-4,0%
-3,0%
-2,0%
-1,0%
0,0%
1,0%
2,0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
TWIN DEFICITS
Government deficit(-)/surplus(+) OECD Estimation Current account balance OECD Estimation
*Source: OECD Economic Surveys
Before economic crisis the Greek economy was characterized by large current account and government deficit. From 2010 onward both deficits were reduced drastically.
Key facts and figures on Greek Economy
The unemployment rate fell to 21,5% in December 2017. More decline is been expected, as the economy will recover and investors trust again the country.
12,7%
17,9%
24,5%
27,5% 26,5%24,9%
23,6%21,5%
19,9%18,2%
16,6% 15,4%14,3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
UNEMPLOYMENT(%)
Unemployment rate Estimation
*Source: Eurostat and Hellenic Fiscal Council
Key facts and figures on Greek Economy
Bond rating agency Credit rating Outlook Date of last review
MOODY'S B3 Positive February 2018
FITCH BB- Stable August 2018
STANDARD & POOR'S B+ Positive July 2018
RATING AND INVESTMENT B Stable September 2018
DBRS B (HIGH) Positive June 2018
The last few months, Bond rating agencies, raised up their credit rating for Greece.
*Source: Public debt management agency
Key facts and figures on Greek Economy
The citizens recover their trust to the credit system, as since the last year, deposits gradually returning to Greek banks.
119,75 119,07 119,31 118,99
119,41 120,42
121,24
122,61 122,58 123,68 123,87
126,35
124,76 124,92
126,02
126,98 128,06
129,43
130,24 131,57
131,71
DEPOSITS OF INDIVIDUALS (IN BILLION EUROS)
*Source: Bank of Greece
Investments in Wind power sector
Despite the economic crisis, during the period 2010-2017, about 1,88 billion euros invested in Wind power sector.
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
9.000
10.000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
RES
Inve
stm
ents
(m
illio
n €
)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Win
d E
ner
gy In
vest
men
ts (
mill
ion
€)
Wind Sector Projects in Greece
Agios Georgios Project: The first wind farm installed on a rocky islet.✓ Attica✓ 73,2MW✓ 9 Vestas V90-3MW WTGs✓ 14 Vestas V112-3,3MW WTGs
Panachaiko Project: For many years it was the biggest wind farm in Greece.✓ Patra✓ 48,45 MW✓ 41 Vestas V52-850kW WTGs✓ 16 Siemens Gamesa G52-850kW WTGs
A wind energy vision for Greece
✓ Full exploitation of its 100% known energy resource which is wind potential and especially….
✓ …..the huge wind potential of Aegean Sea, onshore and offshore
✓ Development of a strong local supply chain, especially for wind offshore (incl. floating) incorporating our naval-industry tradition, shipyards, cable industry, OMS infrastructure
✓ Large international interconnections
✓ Foreign and local investments
✓ Producer and exporter of green electricity
✓ Strong contributor to the Europe’s energy independence
✓ Geopolitical reinforcement and sustainable economic growth
