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NKOMEJE Felicien ()Student ID: M2014047Tel: +86-18305160547

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Evaluation of Urban Growth Based on LU&LC Dynamics inKigali city, Rwanda

A research proposal

HOHAI UNIVERSITYSchool of Earth Sciences and Engineering

The 05th January 2016

Supervisor: Dr. Xiaoxiang ZHANG

Research outline1. Study area2. Background and motivation3. Research objectives 4. Research questions 5. Research relevance and rationale 6. Data sources and collection methods7. Proposed methodology8. Research structure9. Work plan10. Resources


Study area

HOHAI UNIVERSITY

School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

KIgali

The population of the city isslightly above 1M on 730 sqkmand the spread out city extendsover to several valleys and hills.

Kigali is commercial and political life. The largest city of the country. is exhaustively composed by 3 district and Nyarugenge stays the urban center of the city.

Background and motivation


54% of world pop live in urban area and projected to66% (2050) (UN-DESA, 2014).

Kigali founded in 1907 now has More than 1M people

Density pop in Kigali was 1265 in 2006 and 1600/Sqkm in 2012.

Source: Fourth Population and Housing Census in 2012 reported in 2014

Background and motivation


Urban change is 4% in last decade (25% in 2011, 26%in 2012, 27% in 2013 , 28 in 2014 ) and now must bemore (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS)

Rwanda has been ranked the fastest developingcountry in the world in the last 25 years. China hasbeen ranked the second (http://www.economist.com December, 2015).

Kigali One Stop Center has issued 282 constructionpermits since April 2010 to Oct 2012(http://www.independent.co.ug).

Agriculture land reduced to a considerable rate.

Background and motivation (Contd)


Kigali master plan Vs field observation

Rwandas seek to benefit from Kigalis land andproperty market; but its leaders also strive for much morein the city(Every day manifestation-residents income-developers and Government)

RS and GIS as analysis and decision making tools.

This study will generally help to understand urbandynamics and assess the future urban growth impacts onenvironment.

Background and motivation (Contd)

HOHAI UNIVERSITY

School of Earth Sciences and Engineering

k Suburb in the city fringe

Residential in planning_Gvt

City Vs Rivers

City Vs Swamps

City and agriculture

Environmental impactsAgents interactions in policy implementation

City center

Gatsata residentswary as rainspound risk zone

Kigali master plan

Research objectives


The overall objective of the study isto evaluate the spatio-temporal urbangrowth process of Kigali city based onland use/land cover change.

Research objectives (Contd)


Specifically the research will tackle:

Describing urban growth process and LUCCdynamics;

Identifying Kigali urban patterns and itsdynamics;

Generating LULCC models using RS/GISapproaches ;

Research questions


Why is Kigali city growing faster? (driving forces => Causes and impacts assessment)

What are spatial patterns of Kigali urbangrowth?...(This will also deal with where question)

How to model Kigali urban LUCC usingRS and GIS approaches?...(Geo-Simulations)

Relevance


The research is relevant in terms of:

Understanding the evolution of Kigali urbangrowth in order to help decision makers;

Improving the public policy in Kigali city (Kigalimaster plan updates, etc;

Contributing as potential resource for furtherrelated or connected researches and will serveas model to similar case study

Data source


Primary data

GCP (Ground control points): these GPSpoints will help in geo-referencing and groundchecking features

Illustrative Photos: these are current photothat will provide a better understanding of thestudy area

Data source (Contd)


Secondary data

Landsat images: in this research, landsat5, 7and 8 images will be used to perform someprocessing and analysis.

Data sources (Contd)


Secondary data

DEM: this can be downloaded from differentwebsite or produced from DTM;

Kigali master plan shp

Geoeye or quickbird image for data validation

Different hard and electronics materials willbe reviewed (more than 120 papers and booksare available now;

Methodology


The purpose, data availability, skills capability, timeand budget are major factors to define the researchmethod(Keith G., No date)

However, the urbangrowth monitoringusing remotely senseddata will alwaysperformed around thischart.

Methodology (Contd) : Why, What and How questions?


RS Images+GCP+other data

Mosaic subset Kigali boundary shp

GCP+mapsOrthophotos

Thematic Accuracy calibration

Spatial reclassification

Supervised Classification

Image preprocessing Correct &Enhance

Sieving and clumping(Possible Ground truth)

Likelihood algorithm

Kappa

Classesdetermination/Patterns

Built up, Agriculture land,lake/River, green spaces and nonused space

Topo map, DEM,KMP shp

RS data/landsat 5,7 and 8

Dynamics model(AM)

Change detection

Modeling results& Interpretation

Methodology (Contd)


The research temporal scale is 1985 2015,divided in 3 time series(1985-1995-2005-2015).

The classification will define Built up,Agriculture land, lake/River, green spaces andnon used space.

The Kappa statistics: based on cell-by-cellcomparison of the observed map and thepredicted map (Hagen-Zanker et al, 2008).

AM Spatial dynamics model will help toidentify spatial urban change rate and patterns.

Key terms


For a better understanding of this project, some key terms will be defined:

GIS (Geographic Information System )

RS ( Remote Sensing )

LU/LCC (Land use and land cover change)

Kigali

Rwanda

urban modeling

Urbanization prediction

Landsat images

Research structure


This research will be arranged in 4 chapters:

Chap1. General introduction

Chap2. Understanding urban growth and LUCC

Chap3. Kigali urban growth dynamics

Chap4. Conclusion and recommendations

Work plan (2016)


1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Proposal preparation

Proposal defense

Gathering resources

Experiments

work (Paper)

Chap 1

Chap 2

Chap 3

Chap 4

Final work Jan-March 2017

References


1. Mirkatouli J, Hosseini A, Neshat A: Analysis of land use and land cover spatial pattern based on Markov chains modelling. City, Territory and Architecture 2015, 2(1).2. Carvalho Ribeiro S, Migliozzi A, Incerti G, Pinto Correia T: Placing land cover pattern preferences on the map: Bridging methodological approaches of landscape preference surveys and spatial pattern analysis. Landscape and Urban Planning 2013, 114:53-68.3. ESRI, ARCGIS spatial analyst_advanved Spat analyst using Raster and Vector, ESRI 380 New York St., Redlands, CA 92373-8100, USA, 20014. John D. Bossler et al, Manual of geospatial science & technology, nd. 5. Addis getnet yesserie, spatiotemporal land use land cover changes analysis and monitoring, Castelln, Spain, march 2009.6. M F GOODCHILD et al,The future of GIS and spatial analysis, nd.7. Gilbert Nduwayezu, Modeling urban growth in Kigali city, Rwanda, Enschede, The Netherlands, February 2015.

References (Contd)


8. JAMES G. Watt et al, Secretary at United States Department of , Interior, A Land Use And Land Cover Classification System For Use With Remote Sensor Data, First Printing 1976, Conversion to Digital 2001.

9. Atiqur RAHMAN et al, An assessment of urban environmental issues using remote sensing and gis techniques, Paris, 2009.

10. University of Freiburg, GIS & Spatial Modeling, Course notes, Class 2: "Spatial Doing" - A discourse about analysis and modeling in a spatial context, nd.

11. NISR, 2012 population and house hold census, Rwanda, November 2012

Cleanliness And Beauty Define Kigali City


THANK YOU

FOR

ATTENTION

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