prophylactic early erythropoietin for neuroprotection in ... club/crib notes for...pediatrics volume...

12
REVIEW ARTICLE PEDIATRICS Volume 139, number 5, May 2017:e20164317 Prophylactic Early Erythropoietin for Neuroprotection in Preterm Infants: A Meta-analysis Hendrik S. Fischer, MD, Nora J. Reibel, MSc, Christoph Bührer, MD, Christof Dame, MD abstract CONTEXT: Recombinant human erythropoietin (rhEPO) is a promising pharmacological agent for neuroprotection in neonates. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether prophylactic rhEPO administration in very preterm infants improves neurodevelopmental outcomes in a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). DATA SOURCES: Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched in December 2016 and complemented by other sources. STUDY SELECTION: RCTs investigating the use of rhEPO in preterm infants versus a control group were selected if they were published in a peer-reviewed journal and reported neurodevelopmental outcomes at 18 to 24 months’ corrected age. DATA EXTRACTION: Data extraction and analysis followed the standard methods of the Cochrane Neonatal Review Group. The primary outcome was the number of infants with a Mental Developmental Index (MDI) <70 on the Bayley Scales of Infant Development. Secondary outcomes included a Psychomotor Development Index <70, cerebral palsy, visual impairment, and hearing impairment. RESULTS: Four RCTs, comprising 1133 infants, were included in the meta-analysis. Prophylactic rhEPO administration reduced the incidence of children with an MDI <70, with an odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of 0.51 (0.31–0.81), P < .005. The number needed to treat was 14. There was no statistically significant effect on any secondary outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Prophylactic rhEPO improved the cognitive development of very preterm infants, as assessed by the MDI at a corrected age of 18 to 24 months, without affecting other neurodevelopmental outcomes. Current and future RCTs should investigate optimal dosing and timing of prophylactic rhEPO and plan for long-term neurodevelopmental follow-up. Department of Neonatology, Charité University Medical Center, Berlin, Germany Dr Fischer designed the meta-analysis, searched for relevant studies, extracted, assessed, and analyzed the data, and drafted the manuscript; Ms Reibel and Dr Bührer contributed to data extraction and assessment; Dr Dame conceptualized the meta-analysis, searched for relevant studies, extracted and assessed the data, and drafted the manuscript; and all authors approved the final manuscript as submitted. DOI: 10.1542/peds.2016-4317 Accepted for publication Feb 9, 2017 Address correspondence to Christof Dame, MD, Department of Neonatology, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Augustenburger Platz 1, 13353 Berlin, Germany. E-mail: [email protected] To cite: Fischer HS, Reibel NJ, Bührer C, et al. Prophylactic Early Erythropoietin for Neuroprotection in Preterm Infants: A Meta-analysis. Pediatrics. 2017;139(5):e20164317 by guest on May 15, 2017 Downloaded from Christof is Director of Molecular Neo at Charite Hospital in Berlin Christoph is NICU Director @ Charite Berlin

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Page 1: Prophylactic early erythropoietin for neuroprotection in ... Club/Crib Notes for...PEDIATRICS Volume 139, number 5, May 2017:e20164317 REVIEW ARTICLE Prophylactic Early Erythropoietin

REVIEW ARTICLEPEDIATRICS Volume 139, number 5, May 2017:e20164317

Prophylactic Early Erythropoietin for Neuroprotection in Preterm Infants: A Meta-analysisHendrik S. Fischer, MD, Nora J. Reibel, MSc, Christoph Bührer, MD, Christof Dame, MD

abstractCONTEXT: Recombinant human erythropoietin (rhEPO) is a promising pharmacological agent for neuroprotection in neonates.OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether prophylactic rhEPO administration in very preterm infants improves neurodevelopmental outcomes in a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs).DATA SOURCES: Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials were searched in December 2016 and complemented by other sources.STUDY SELECTION: RCTs investigating the use of rhEPO in preterm infants versus a control group were selected if they were published in a peer-reviewed journal and reported neurodevelopmental outcomes at 18 to 24 months’ corrected age.DATA EXTRACTION: Data extraction and analysis followed the standard methods of the Cochrane Neonatal Review Group. The primary outcome was the number of infants with a Mental Developmental Index (MDI) <70 on the Bayley Scales of Infant Development. Secondary outcomes included a Psychomotor Development Index <70, cerebral palsy, visual impairment, and hearing impairment.RESULTS: Four RCTs, comprising 1133 infants, were included in the meta-analysis. Prophylactic rhEPO administration reduced the incidence of children with an MDI <70, with an odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of 0.51 (0.31–0.81), P < .005. The number needed to treat was 14. There was no statistically significant effect on any secondary outcome.CONCLUSIONS: Prophylactic rhEPO improved the cognitive development of very preterm infants, as assessed by the MDI at a corrected age of 18 to 24 months, without affecting other neurodevelopmental outcomes. Current and future RCTs should investigate optimal dosing and timing of prophylactic rhEPO and plan for long-term neurodevelopmental follow-up.

Department of Neonatology, Charité University Medical Center, Berlin, Germany

Dr Fischer designed the meta-analysis, searched for relevant studies, extracted, assessed, and analyzed the data, and drafted the manuscript; Ms Reibel and

Dr Bührer contributed to data extraction and assessment; Dr Dame conceptualized the meta-analysis, searched for relevant studies, extracted and assessed the

data, and drafted the manuscript; and all authors approved the final manuscript as submitted.

DOI: 10.1542/peds.2016-4317

Accepted for publication Feb 9, 2017

Address correspondence to Christof Dame, MD, Department of Neonatology, Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Augustenburger Platz 1, 13353 Berlin, Germany.

E-mail: [email protected]

To cite: Fischer HS, Reibel NJ, Bührer C, et al. Prophylactic Early Erythropoietin for Neuroprotection in Preterm Infants: A Meta-analysis. Pediatrics. 2017;139(5):e20164317

by guest on May 15, 2017Downloaded from

Christof is Director

of Molecular Neo at

Charite Hospital in

Berlin

Christoph is

NICU Director

@ Charite Berlin

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FISCHER et al

Improving neurodevelopmental outcomes is a major goal in neonatology, especially with regard to the increasing survival rate of the most immature infants.1–3 In particular, extremely low birth weight (ELBW) infants may develop cognitive delay or cerebral palsy later in life, even if the cranial ultrasound examination at discharge is normal.4Recombinant human erythropoietin (rhEPO) is 1 of the most promising pharmacological substances for neuroprotection in newborn infants and may be beneficial for regeneration and repair after neonatal brain injury.5,6

Interestingly, the endogenous erythropoietin receptor system activates in response to hypoxic–ischemic injury. This means that rhEPO may be particularly potent for neuroprotection and neuronal regeneration if administered timely after an acute brain injury.7–9Conversely, if rhEPO is administered prophylactically, higher doses may be needed to cross the blood–brain barrier.10,11 Numerous in vitro and in vivo experiments (including models of the fetal or immature brain) have shown that rhEPO has antioxidant, antiexcitotoxic, and anti-inflammatory properties, prevents neuronal apoptosis,12 and promotes neurogenesis and angiogenesis.7,13–15

Debate continues over whether premature infants at high risk of neurodevelopmental impairment may benefit from prophylactic rhEPO.16 Most clinical follow-up studies on preterm infants primarily treated with rhEPO (or its higher-glycosylated derivate darbepoetin) for anemia of prematurity indicated improved neurodevelopmental outcomes,17–21 whereas only a few studies have shown no effect.22,23In 2005, the first phase I and II trials were initiated to establish the safety of early high-dose rhEPO for neuroprotection.24,25 So far, only a limited number of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have

reported data on the neuroprotective effects of rhEPO in preterm infants. This limitation was reflected in 2 previous meta-analyses26,27 that included several quasi-RCTs25,28–30and a cohort study.19 Recently, neurodevelopmental outcomes at a corrected age of 18 to 24 months from 2 prospective RCTs, intended primarily to evaluate the neuroprotective effects of rhEPO in a total of 978 very preterm infants, were published almost simultaneously.31,32 Therefore, the present meta-analysis aimed to study whether prophylactic rhEPO improves the neurodevelopmental outcomes of very preterm infants at 18 to 24 months’ corrected age, solely including data from previous and recent RCTs.

METHODS

Criteria for Considering Studies for

This Review

All RCTs that investigated the effect of prophylactic rhEPO in preterm infants were eligible for the meta-analysis. Included trials had to compare an rhEPO-treated group with a control group that received no treatment or placebo, and they had to report neurodevelopmental outcomes. Only studies published in full in peer-reviewed journals were accepted. No language restrictions were applied.Types of Outcome Measures

Outcome measures were specified beforehand in a review protocol, considering the outcomes reported by recently published RCTs.31,32The primary outcome of the meta-analysis was the number of infants with a Mental Developmental Index (MDI) <70 on the Bayley Scales of Infant Development, Second Edition (BSID-II), at 18 to 24 months’ corrected age.33 If infants were assessed according to the Third Edition (BSID-III),34 we used cognitive scores <85 as the

primary outcome, because a recent study showed that a cognitive score <85 (BSID-III) predicts an MDI <70 (BSID-II), with an overall agreement of 97.3%.35 A planned subgroup analysis assessed the incidence of an MDI <70 (BSID-II) or cognitive score <85 (BSID-III) in infants <28 weeks’ gestational age. Other predetermined secondary outcomes were the number of infants with a Psychomotor Development Index (PDI) <70 (BSID-II), cerebral palsy, severe visual impairment, and severe hearing impairment, respectively. After the literature search, we added the secondary outcome “any neurodevelopmental impairment at 18 to 24 months’ corrected age.”Search Methods for Identification of

Studies

For the literature search, we followed the standard search methods of the Cochrane Collaboration.36 Two authors independently searched the databases Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL). The results were combined with cross-referencing of previous reviews and trials and with the use of expert information. Additional information about ongoing trials was sought through the search portal of the International Clinical Trials Registry Platform.37 Medline, Embase, and CENTRAL were searched on May 31, 2016. The search was updated on December 18, 2016. A highly sensitive search strategy was applied, as outlined in the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews of Interventions, and complied with specific recommendations for identifying RCTs in Medline and Embase.36,38 A variety of search terms were applied to identify RCTs concerned with rhEPO use in premature infants (search concept: premature infant AND erythropoietin AND randomized controlled trial) or with follow-up studies on children of all ages that reported neurodevelopmental outcomes

2by guest on May 15, 2017Downloaded from

then we should expectonly pure RCTs here...

The P for PICO in a meta-analysis

is the population of 'studies'

included, not the patients. See

how they were selected, inclusion

criteria, etc.

very key... you should

always look for this

PRIMARYOUTCOME

so Bayley 3 not thesame as Bayley 2

unplannedsubgroupanalyseshaveanothername:fishingexpedition

SECONDARYOUTCOMES

- PDI < 70- CP- Vision- Hearing- any of above

so thereshould be12 outcomes- 6 for allinfants, 6for subgrpof < 28 wk'ers

reproducible:which

databases,when,

searchterms,

howthey

developed

searchstrategy

are

allof

these

inthis

paragraph?

Bayley is standard neonatal devof/u tool. Nancy Bayley devisedit back in 1969 same yr as Woodstockand 1st moon landing

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PEDIATRICS Volume 139, number 5, May 2017

after rhEPO treatment (search concept: child AND erythropoietin AND [RCT OR follow-up study] AND [neurodevelopmental testing OR neurodevelopmental outcomes OR neuroprotection]). Altogether, we used >60 free-text and indexed search terms, including many from the Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) and Excerpta Medica Tree indexing systems. The detailed search strategy is available in the Supplemental Information. We followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) Statement.39,40

Assessment of Methodological

Quality

The methodological quality of the selected studies was assessed according to Cochrane’s guidelines.36The risks of selection bias (quality of randomization, allocation concealment), performance bias (blinding of intervention), detection bias (blinding of outcome assessment), attrition bias (completeness of follow-up), selective reporting (reporting bias), and other potential biases were independently examined by 2 study authors (H.S.F., N.J.R.) and categorized as low risk, high risk, or unclear risk. Any discrepancies were resolved by a third author (C.D.).Data Collection and Analysis

Trial searching, study selection, and data extraction were performed independently by 2 study authors (H.S.F., C.D.). At each stage, differences were discussed and resolved by consensus or by a third author (C.B.). We planned to contact the corresponding authors of the included RCTs up to 3 times via e-mail to request stratified data or additional information about their trials, allowing 2 months for their response. RevMan version 5.3 (Cochrane Collaboration, Nordic Cochrane Centre, Copenhagen) was used for data analysis. The impacts of rhEPO on primary and

secondary outcomes were calculated via the Mantel–Haenszel method for dichotomous outcomes in a random effects model. Results for all studies and for the pooled data were reported as odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Statistical significance was defined as P < .05. For pooled outcomes with significant effects, a number needed to treat (NNT) was calculated. To estimate heterogeneity, we applied the χ2 test and I2 value. To assess for publication bias, the treatment effects of rhEPO were plotted against SE (log[OR]) in funnel plots.36,41

RESULTS

A total of 576 records were identified, 564 through database searches and 12 through other sources (Fig 1). From them, 114 potentially met the inclusion criteria and were assessed as full-text articles. A subset of 21 articles were published in languages other than English: 4 in Bulgarian, 1 in Chinese, 2 in French, 3 in Italian, 2 in Japanese, 2 in Polish, 6 in Spanish, and 1 in Turkish.

Excluded Studies

After the full-text assessment, 110 articles had to be excluded. As shown in Fig 1, 19 articles did not report RCTs, 2 reported RCTs that compared different schemes of rhEPO administration but lacked a control group,42,43 and 86 RCTs had rhEPO and control groups but did not report neurodevelopmental outcomes. Three studies were excluded for other reasons: Newton et al22presented neurodevelopmental outcomes of 40 infants enrolled in 2 small pilot RCTs (n = 28) and 1 multicenter trial (n = 22) conducted between 1988 and 1993.44–46However, these studies were excluded because the follow-up article presented only pooled follow-up data and did not allow any outcome analysis at the level of the original RCTs. Bierer et al18

correlated neonatal peak serum erythropoietin concentrations with neurodevelopmental outcomes at 18 to 22 months’ corrected age in a single-center follow-up study on an RCT of rhEPO versus placebo, but the study was excluded because the population was a subset of the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network Trial included in our meta-analysis.17 A third RCT (NCT01207778), recently published by Ohls et al,21 was excluded because it reported neurodevelopmental outcomes at 3.5 to 4 years.

Included Studies

Four RCTs, which assessed a total of 1133 patients at 18 to 24 months' corrected age, were included in the meta-analysis; their main characteristics are summarized in Table 1. All studies included preterm infants of ≤32 0/7 weeks’ gestational age, but only 2 used the infants’ birth weight to define the inclusion criteria.17,20 Notably, the timing, dosing, and duration of rhEPO administration varied. Whereas 1 RCT applied early high-dose rhEPO only (first dose within 3 hours after birth, cumulative dose of 9000 IU/kg within the first 42 hours),32 the other 3 RCTs started rhEPO later (within the first 48–96 hours), applied lower doses (1200–1750 IU/kg per week), and prescribed sustained treatment of several weeks.17,20,31 One RCT was designed primarily to prevent red blood cell transfusions by reducing the anemia of prematurity.17 Another RCT targeted both hematologic and neurodevelopmental outcomes, comparing rhEPO, placebo, and a third intervention group receiving darbepoetin.20 For methodological reasons, however, the latter was not included in the meta-analysis.To obtain additional data or information, we contacted the first or senior authors of all included RCTs. We highly appreciate the cooperation

3by guest on May 15, 2017Downloaded from

MeSH was developed in 1960 and is like a Dewey Decimal System for medical articles

Excerpta Medica (better known as EMBASE) is similar but started by Dutch in 1946.

Now maintained by the journal publisher Elsevier

27pt checklist - good way to reviewa meta-analysis. see end of article

there

are4commonmethods:

Jadad

(mostcommon),Cochrane,Delphi

&CONSORT.

Make

sureauthors

useone.

supposedly Cochrane developers thought Jadad (Oxford guy) didn't account for making sure therewas adequate allocation concealment (i.e. researchers wcould not guess/find out randomization)

RevMan

isCochrane

softwarefor

preparingreviews..

it's

likethey

have

averticalmonopoly

onthe

meta-analyssisbiz

via the Mantel–Haenszel method secondary outcomes were calculated via the Mantel–Haenszel method

MH methodweights ORs &combines them

NNT = 1 / absolute risk reduction

polyglot, yes!

why

eachwas

unworthy....

Newton:

pooled &

could not

be combined

Bierer: part

of another

study already

included

Ohls:outcomeassessedtoo late

EXCLUDED

INCLUDED

Ohls '04

Ohls '14

Natalucci

2016

Song '16

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FISCHER et al

of 1 author who provided us with previously unpublished data for infants <28 0/7 weeks’ gestational age.32

Risk of Bias in the Included Studies

Selection Bias

Random sequence generation and allocation concealment were adequate in all studies (low risk).Performance Bias

In 3 RCTs, considerable efforts were made to blind parents and personnel to the study intervention (low risk).17,20,32 By contrast, doctors and nurses responsible for the treatment were not blinded in the trial by Song et al31 (high risk).Detection Bias

Investigators performing long-term outcome assessments were blinded to the patients’ group allocation in all studies (low risk).Attrition Bias

The proportion of the surviving study patients who completed follow-up varied from 71% to 91%, according to the particular study and group, and the maximum difference in follow-up between intervention and control group was 91% versus 80% in 1 study20 (unclear risk).Reporting Bias

Two RCTs were registered at ClinicalTrials.gov before or shortly after recruitment began (low risk),20,32 and 1 RCT was not registered (unclear risk).17 The study by Song et al31 was registered 6 months after enrollment was completed, and the registered inclusion criteria and primary outcomes differed from those reported in the publication (high risk).Other Bias

Two RCTs were co-funded by pharmaceutical companies (low risk).17,32

Visual inspection of the funnel plots did not reveal significant

asymmetries in the distribution of effect sizes around the mean, making publication bias less likely. The funnel plots, detailed characteristics of the included studies, and the complete risk of bias assessment are available as Supplemental Information (Supplemental Tables, Supplemental Fig 4).

Effects of Intervention

The effects of rhEPO on MDI <70 and PDI <70 are shown in Fig 2.

Prophylactic rhEPO in very preterm infants significantly reduced the incidence of an MDI <70 at 18 to24 months’ corrected age, with anOR (95% CI) of 0.51 (0.31–0.81), P = .005. Statistical measures did not indicate a heterogeneity problem (χ2 = 4.01, P = .26, I2 = 25%). The absolute risk of an MDI <70 was reduced from 15.7% to 8.4%, corresponding to an NNT of 14. In a sensitivity analysis excluding the data of the largest trial by Song et al31 the

4

FIGURE 1PRISMA flow diagram.39

by guest on May 15, 2017Downloaded from

so the previous MA didn't

include 2 new ones....

COCHRANETOOL

ANALYSISOF

6TYPESOF

BIAS:

-selection,performance,

detection,attrition,reporting,other(funding

&publication)

-eachgets

alow,high,

or

unclearrisk

score

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PEDIATRICS Volume 139, number 5, May 2017

calculated effect size of rhEPO on MDI <70 remained in favor of rhEPO but was no longer statistically significant, with an OR (95% CI) of 0.68 (0.4–1.18), P = .17 (data not shown). RhEPO had no significant impact on MDI <70 in infants <28 weeks’ gestational age (Fig 2B) or on PDI <70 (Fig 2C). The definitions of the other secondary outcomes (cerebral palsy, severe visual impairment, severe hearing impairment, and any neurodevelopmental impairment) all showed some variation between the included studies (see Supplemental Tables for details). As shown in Fig 3, there was no significant effect of rhEPO on any of these outcomes in the meta-analysis. The combined OR (95% CI) of any neurodevelopmental impairment was 0.55 (0.28–1.08), P = .08, with substantial statistical heterogeneity between the included studies (χ2 = 10.38, P = .02, I2 = 71%).

DISCUSSION

This is the largest meta-analysis to date to investigate the neuroprotective effects of prophylactic rhEPO in very preterm infants of 18 to 24 months’ corrected age and the first to include only RCTs. Our analysis is highly topical, because 2 of the 4 RCTs, which included 978 of the 1133 patients studied, had only been reported recently.31,32The meta-analyzed data showed that rhEPO reduced the number of patients with an MDI <70 at 18 to 24 months’ corrected age but had no significant effect on motor development, hearing, or vision.

Quality of Evidence

The included RCTs were mostly of high methodological quality, with a low risk of bias (Supplemental Tables). The only major problems related to the RCT by Song et al31were the lack of blinding of personnel and indications of selective reporting. Incomplete outcome data were considered as a minor point in all

studies. However, the reported follow-up rates at 18 to 24 months’ corrected age were satisfactory from a practical point of view. In accordance with Cochrane methods, we used funnel plots to assess for publication bias,36 but we did not identify major asymmetries (Supplemental Fig 4). However, we were aware that this method had low power to detect bias, because only 4 RCTs were included in the meta-analysis. More importantly, there remains a possibility of unpublished data, in that 86 RCTs of rhEPO were excluded from the meta-analysis because they did not report neurodevelopmental outcomes(Fig 1).

Effect on Cognitive Outcome

The beneficial effect of prophylactic rhEPO on the incidence of MDI <70 at 18 to 24 months’ corrected age was consistent across all included RCTs (Fig 2A), although timing and dosing of rhEPO administration varied between trials. With an absolute risk reduction from 15.7% to 8.4% and an NNT of 14 patients, the estimated effect is clinically relevant. The observed benefits of rhEPO are robust,

because they are in agreement with available evidence from longer-term follow-up studies, which also reported improved cognitive outcomes. In the second follow-up on the previously mentioned RCT of rhEPO, darbepoetin, or placebo, Ohls et al21,47 assessed 53 children via the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence, Third Edition at the age of 3.5 to 4 years. The study compared the pooled data of the rhEPO group (n = 24) and darbepoetin group (n = 15) with the placebo group (n = 14) and showed that the children treated by erythropoiesis-stimulating agents scored significantly better for full-scale IQ, performance IQ, overall executive function, and working memory. When cognitive function was analyzed, results at 18 to 22 months and 4 years correlated significantly between BSID-II composite score and full-scale IQ.20,21 Neubauer et al19 analyzed neurodevelopmental outcomes at the age of 10 to 13 years in a cohort study of 89 ELBW infants who received rhEPO from the first week of life to near-term and 57 untreated ELBW infants. rhEPO-treated infants attained higher verbal, nonverbal, and composite

5

TABLE 1 Characteristics of Included Studies

Author Year N Gestational

Age, Birth Wt

Time Point of

Intervention

Intervention Recruitment

Ohls et al17 2004 102 ≤32 0/7,

≤1000 g

24–96 h of age rhEPO 400 IU/kg IV

or SC, 3 times per

wk until 35 0/7

wk gestation

1997–1998

Ohls et al20 2014 53a Any GA,b

500–1250 g

≤48 h of age rhEPO 400 IU/kg SC,

3 times per wk

until 35 0/7 wk

gestation

2006–2010

Natalucci et

al32

2016 365 26 0/7–31 6/7,

any BW

<3 h of age rhEPO 3000 IU/kg

IV at <3 h, 12–18

h and 36–42 h

of age

2005–2012

Song et al31 2016 613 ≤32 0/7, any

BW

<72 h of age rhEPO 500 IU/kg IV

every other day

for 2 wk

2009–2013

BW, birth wt; GA, gestational age; IV, intravenously; SC, subcutaneously.a This study had 3 groups: rhEPO (n = 29) versus placebo (n = 24) versus darbepoetin (n = 27). The darbepoetin group was

not included in the meta-analysis.b Median (interquartile range) GA of included infants 28 (26–29) wk; study entry criteria: preterm infants with a birth wt

of 500–1250 g.

by guest on May 15, 2017Downloaded from

these 2 were newcompared toprevious meta-a

don't ever write 'first' or 'largest'in one of your manuscripts. Hubris.Let an editorial say it.

One of these studies was judged the riskiest in terms of BIAS.Which one was it? Text your answer plus your favorite Justin Bieber,Taylor Swift, or One Direction song to Dr. McDonnell (440) 258-6938 ASAPbefore he separates from the US Navy.

vs

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FISCHER et al

IQ scores in the Hamburg–Wechsler Intelligence Test for Children III,and a subgroup analysis showed a particular benefit of rhEPO in infants with intraventricular hemorrhage.Because infants <28 0/7 weeks’ gestational age are at particularly high risk of poor developmental outcomes, the effects of rhEPO in this subpopulation deserve closer examination. In our planned subgroup analysis, there was no

significant benefit of rhEPO on the outcome measure MDI <70 in such infants (Fig 2B). However, only stratified data from the recent Swiss and Chinese rhEPO neuroprotection RCTs were available for the subgroup analysis, and the resulting subset of 60 rhEPO-treated and 57 placebo-treated infants <28 0/7 weeks’ gestational age was less than the optimal information size. We are aware that a multicenter RCT in the United States is currently

recruiting 941 preterm infants <28 0/7 weeks’ gestational age to answer this question (PENUT Trial, NCT01378273). The PENUT Trial enrolls infants within 24 hours after birth to investigate an early high-dose strategy of 6 doses of intravenous Epo 1000 U/kg per dose at 48-hour intervals, followed by subcutaneous Epo 400 U/kg per dose 3 times per week up to 32 6/7 weeks’ postmenstrual age. Results are expected in 2019 and will be

6

FIGURE 2Effects of rhEPO on neurodevelopment, as assessed by BSID-II or BSID-III at 18 to 24 months’ corrected age. Forest plots show the effects on the number

of infants with an MDI <70 (BSID-II) or cognitive score <85 (BSID-III) in all infants (primary outcome, A), in infants <28 0/7 weeks’ gestational age (planned

subgroup analysis, B), and on the number of infants with a PDI <70 as assessed by BSID-II (secondary outcome, C). M-H, Mantel–Haenszel.

by guest on May 15, 2017Downloaded from

only 2 studies

combined here!

Why?

only 2 studies

combined here?

why?

Objective: know how to read a 'Forest Plot'

- these are standard in MA's. the squares are the effects (in this case Odds Ratio) and CI's

- the size of the square is proportional to the number of subjects in that study

- the diamond is the pooled OR (see green diamond to the right)

- a test for HETEROGENEITY (t2 and/or I2). You don't want it so good if t2>0.05 & I2 low

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PEDIATRICS Volume 139, number 5, May 2017 7

FIGURE 3Effects of rhEPO on secondary outcomes at 18 to 24 months’ corrected age. Forest plots show the effects on cerebral palsy (A), severe visual impairment

(B), severe hearing impairment (C), and any neurodevelopmental impairment (D). M-H, Mantel–Haenszel.

by guest on May 15, 2017Downloaded from

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FISCHER et al

stratified by gestational age at birth (<26 or 26–27 6/7 weeks).48

Effect on Motor Outcomes, Vision,

and Hearing

In the meta-analysis, prophylactic rhEPO had no significant effect on the incidence of PDI <70, cerebral palsy, severe visual impairment, or severe hearing impairment at 18 to 24 months’ corrected age (Figs2C and 3 A–C). Admittedly, these adverse outcomes are rare, and the meta-analysis may not be sufficiently powered to detect minor effects. The latter also applies to longer-term follow-up studies that did not detect prophylactic rhEPO to have any impact on gross and fine motor activity, cerebral palsy, vision, or hearing.19,21 Reassuringly, the lack of effect on visual outcome in the meta-analysis is consistent with previous meta-analyses showing that early rhEPO did not increase the risk of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP)49,50 and with experimental data suggesting that rhEPO may even protect the neuronal cells of the retina.51 Most recently, a meta-analysis by Fang et al52 evaluated the influence of rhEPO (independent of early or late treatment initiation) on ROP and found no impact on the rates of any stage ROP, severe ROP, or ROP necessitating intervention.Effect on Any Neurodevelopmental

Impairment

Despite the robust beneficial effect of rhEPO on cognitive development, this meta-analysis showed only a trend toward lowering the combined outcome of any neurodevelopmental impairment (OR 0.55; 95% CI, 0.28–1.08; P = .08; Fig 3D). One possible explanation is that rhEPO targets only a subset of cells or certain areas of the brain responsible for cognitive development. Alternatively, the aforementioned discrepancy may result from the fact that data on the incidence of PDI <70 were not available for 2 RCTs.20,31 In the meta-analysis, this limitation may

have biased the calculated effect of rhEPO on PDI <70 and on any neurodevelopmental impairment in favor of the placebo (Figs 2C and 3D). Notably, Song et al31reported absolute PDIs, which were significantly higher in their rhEPO group compared with placebo (median PDI 99 vs 90; P < .001).

Future Directions

The results of the present meta-analysis clearly indicate that more clinical trials are warranted to investigate open questions about prophylactic rhEPO administration in preterm infants. Most importantly, major variations in the study protocols of the 4 RCTs included in the meta-analysis indicate that the optimal timing and dosing of rhEPO for neuroprotection in preterm infants are still unknown. It is therefore interesting that the follow-up on a previous phase I and II dose escalation trial of early high-dose rhEPO showed that rhEPO improved cognitive and motor outcome measures at 4 to 36 months’ corrected age.53 The protocol of the Swiss RCT (first dose within 3 hours after birth, cumulative dose of 9000 IU/kg within the first 42 hours)32 was the only RCT that closely followed experimental data, arguing for early high-dose rhEPO to achieve therapeutic levels in the brain within the most vulnerable early postnatal period.54,55 Because a subset of the study patients who were examined by cranial MRI scans at term-corrected age showed significantly lower white and gray matter injury scores after rhEPO treatment,56 it was disappointing that BSID-II scores at 18 to 24 months were not improved, neither in the subset nor in the entire study population.32 However, benefits in neurodevelopmental outcome may not be ascertainable until school age or even later.19,57,58 Looking at the encouraging outcome data of preterm rhEPO-treated infants in

the retrospective study of Neubauer et al19 which extend the follow-up examinations from 2 to 13 years of age, the 2-year time point was the only one that showed no effects of rhEPO. Therefore, patients from the 4 analyzed RCTs need long-term neurodevelopmental follow-up examinations at 5 to 6 and 10 to 13 years of age, and additional funding should be provided for this purpose.The fact that in the other 3 RCTs, repeated low-dose rhEPO treatment (started between 24 and 96 hours after birth, in doses of 1200–1750 IU/kg per week, sustained for 2 weeks31 or longer17,20)significantly improved neurologic outcomes provides an indication that continued treatment may be essential. So far, it is unclear whether this effect is caused by a direct impact of rhEPO on the premature brain or by stimulated erythropoiesis and reduced red blood cell transfusions. However, the question deserves more research, particularly considering pharmacodynamically optimized rhEPO treatment to prevent transfusions.59 To date, clinical data from meta-analyses and studies of early high-dose rhEPO indicate no increased risk for typical disorders in very preterm infants such as necrotizing enterocolitis, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, and other adverse outcomes.24,25,27,32,49,50,53 Two cohort studies even found a lower incidence of bronchopulmonary dysplasia in infants treated with rhEPO to prevent red blood cell transfusions.60,61 However, more skin hemangiomas were reported in 2 other cohort studies.25,62

Future RCTs of prophylactic rhEPO in preterm infants should investigate treatment protocols that combine an early high-dose strategy with continued treatment. The aforementioned PENUT trial in the United States (NCT01378273)48

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PEDIATRICS Volume 139, number 5, May 2017

and another ongoing trial in China (NCT02601872, NCT02550054) apply such strategies. Moreover, the EPO REPAIR trial in Switzerland currently investigates a similar dosing protocol for the rescue treatment of preterm infants with intraventricular hemorrhage (NCT02076373).6 However, the results of these studies will not be available before the end of 2018.

Limitations

The limitations of the available evidence are discussed above. Importantly, the RCT by Song et al31had a substantial impact on the primary outcome but involved a high risk of bias in 2 domains. In addition, there were limitations at the meta-analysis level; as a primary outcome, we accepted a cognitive score <85 (BSID-III) as equivalent to an MDI <70 (BSID-II), as recommended by Johnson et al.35 However, authors of other studies found slightly different cutoff levels.63,64 With regard to the secondary outcomes, visual impairment, hearing impairment, and any neurodevelopmental impairment, we deliberately accepted minor deviations of the respective outcome definitions between the included studies (Supplemental Tables).

CONCLUSIONS

The current meta-analysis of 4 RCTs, including 574 rhEPO-treated and 547 placebo-treated premature infants, indicates that prophylactic rhEPO improves neurocognition, as assessed by the MDI at 18 to 24 months’ corrected age. By contrast, rhEPO had no significant effects on other neurodevelopmental outcomes. These findings demonstrate the promising potential of rhEPO for neuroprotection in very preterm infants. New data from current and future RCTs are needed to identify the optimal timing and dosing of prophylactic rhEPO administration in this age group. Ongoing RCTs and those already completed should be funded for long-term neurodevelopmental follow-up.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

We thank Dr Giancarlo Natalucci for providing previously unpublished data and additional information on his study.32 We appreciate the expert neuropediatric advice of Drs Elisabeth Walch and Gitta Reuner regarding the comparison of the different editions of the Bayley Scales of Infant Development. In addition, we thank Lukas Bomke, Judith Hollnagel, Christina Dame-Paasch,

and Drs Makoto Kashiwabara, Paulina Aleksander, and Banu Orak for translating articles published in Bulgarian, Chinese, Italian, Japanese, Polish, and Turkish, respectively.

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ABBREVIATIONS

BSID-II: Bayley Scales of Infant Development, Second Edition

BSID-III: Bayley Scales of Infant Development, Third Edition

CENTRAL: Cochrane CentralRegister of Controlled Trials

CI: confidence intervalELBW: extremely low birth

weightMDI: Mental Developmental

IndexMeSH: Medical Subject HeadingsNNT: number needed to treatOR: odds ratioPDI: Psychomotor Development

IndexPRISMA: Preferred Reporting

Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses

RCT: randomized controlled trialrhEPO: recombinant human

erythropoietinROP: retinopathy of prematurity

PEDIATRICS (ISSN Numbers: Print, 0031-4005; Online, 1098-4275).

Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics

FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE: The authors have indicated they have no financial relationships relevant to this article to disclose.

FUNDING: No external funding.

POTENTIAL CONFLICT OF INTEREST: The authors have indicated they have no potential conflicts of interest to disclose.

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Yay! In early 2019, you can re-do this MA using PENUT, the Chinese trial, and the EPO REPAIR study.

Then you'll have 7 studies in your Forest Plot.

meta-analyses are cheap. Start one today!

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