property predictions 2015 from richard brown politicsinvestor mixhouse pricesrentsdisruption
TRANSCRIPT
Property Predictions 2015From Richard Brown
Politics Investor mixHouse prices Rents Disruption
www.thepropertyvoice.net
Property Predictions 2015From Richard Brown
Headline: Uncertainty & confusion
Result: Lots of talk, spin & mixed messages but not much direct intervention in 2015…maybe later though…
PoliticsHeadline; A changing investor landscape
Result: Changing make up of property investor mix with a growing PRS but more domestically driven than in recent past
Investor mixHeadline: More patchy regional growth
Result: More varied house price growth across the country than last year
House prices
Headline: Lots of pressure on rents
Result: A tough year for rental returns through real (economic) & perceived (spin, media, campaigning) issues
RentsHeadline: New technologies & business models disrupt the status quo
Result: A changing & uncertain landscape, especially for traditional providers servicing the property market
Disruption
www.thepropertyvoice.net
Property Predictions 2015From Richard Brown
Headline: Uncertainty & confusionGeneral election in MayPoliticisng of PRS and more divergence than beforePRS & housing a much bigger election topicAn array of opposing possible policies & influences discussed:Rent controls | Licensing & regulation | Social & affordable housingPrivate investment stimulus | Benefit bill | Garden citiesGreen / brown-belt planning | Shared living / downsizing, etc.
Result: Lots of talk, spin & mixed messages but not much direct intervention in 2015…maybe later though…
Politics
www.thepropertyvoice.net
Property Predictions 2015From Richard Brown
Headline: A changing investor landscapeLess foreign investment due to CGT changes in April & stronger poundMore ‘grey’ investors following pension changesMore new entrants due to recent house price growthMore existing landlords adding to portfolios as property cycle is on the up-curve
Result: Changing make up of property investor mix with a growing PRS but more domestically driven than in recent past
Investor mix
www.thepropertyvoice.net
Property Predictions 2015From Richard Brown
Headline: More patchy regional growthCentral London stagnatesOuter London and commuter towns lead the wayInvestors may look increasingly wider for investment opportunitiesCash buyers, low LTV borrowers, Help to Buy FTBs and investors will drive demandMMR bites into homeowner market for second-steppers etc.One to watch is institutional investors coming into rental market
Result: Much more varied house price growth across the country
House prices
www.thepropertyvoice.net
Property Predictions 2015From Richard Brown
Headline: Lots of pressure on rentsUniversal credit & the welfare policy leading to more arrears and eviction in LHA
sectorThe ‘cost of living’ agenda from campaign groupsAffordability issues in particular central LondonMedia spin and misrepresentation of market dataSupply restriction issues in cities driving rents in concentrated areasSlow wage growth limiting people’s ability to absorb increases
Result: A tough year for rental returns through real (economic) & perceived (spin, media, campaigning) issues
Rents
www.thepropertyvoice.net
Property Predictions 2015From Richard Brown
Headline: New technologies & business models disrupt the status quo‘Sharing economy’ will extend it’s reach into housing & rental marketAirbnb & others drive short-term rental in city locations…may lead to lower supply for long-
term rentsNew portals like OnTheMarket & easyProperty will create more competition but also more
confusionP2P lending to take a bite out of mainstream lending, including BTL funding alternativesMore new technologies…as yet unknownFees could get squeezed and new business models could emerge (opportunity & threat)
Result: A changing & uncertain landscape especially for traditional providers servicing the property market
Disruption
www.thepropertyvoice.net
Property Predictions 2015From Richard Brown
Headline: Uncertainty & confusion
Result: Lots of talk, spin & mixed messages but not much direct intervention in 2015…maybe later though…
PoliticsHeadline; A changing investor landscape
Result: Changing make up of property investor mix with a growing PRS but more domestically driven than in recent past
Investor mixHeadline: More patchy regional growth
Result: More varied house price growth across the country than last year
House prices
Headline: Lots of pressure on rents
Result: A tough year for rental returns through real (economic) & perceived (spin, media, campaigning) issues
RentsHeadline: New technologies & business models disrupt the status quo
Result: A changing & uncertain landscape, especially for traditional providers servicing the property market
Disruption
www.thepropertyvoice.net