property 2016 conference the outlook for uk … 10 november 2016 . property 2016 conference . the...
TRANSCRIPT
www.barbour-abi.com
10 November 2016 Property 2016 Conference
THE OUTLOOK FOR UK CONSTRUCTION
MICHAEL DALL Lead Economist Barbour ABI
www.barbour-abi.com
Barbour ABI Services
Sales leads/project tracking Client/competitor
monitoring Market analysis
www.barbour-abi.com
Working with Government
Partnering with Barbour ABI we will be accessing virtually a census of new orders data, to produce estimates of New Orders in Construction. JACKIE JONES, Deputy Director, ONS
Lead Economist, Michael Dall provides: Context and commentary
around the construction sector and the wider economy in general
Detailed sector and regional analysis
CPA/Barbour ABI Index (produced in association with Noble Francis, Economics Director of the CPA) with activity reports across fifteen sectors within construction.
By joining forces with experts in the field of handling and publishing construction data, we hope that accessing the pipeline can be made increasingly user-friendly. PAUL MORRELL, Government Chief Construction Advisor, HM Government
www.uk-cip.org.uk
www.barbour-abi.com
Construction Market Analysis Economic & Construction Market Review
Government Construction Infrastructure
Pipeline CPA/Barbour ABI Index
Office for National Statistics
www.barbour-abi.com
UK Economy
Growth steady at 0.5% in Q3
Remaining robust in Brexit aftermath
Graph source: ONS
www.barbour-abi.com
UK Economy
Brexit effect? Biggest fall in
PMI in July but met with a large rebound in August
Graph source: ONS
www.barbour-abi.com
UK Economy
Service sector 12.1% higher than 2008
All other sectors lower than 2008
Graph source: ONS
www.barbour-abi.com
UK Economy
Unemployment stays low
Success story of the UK economy
Graph source: ONS
www.barbour-abi.com
UK Economy
Sterling on the slide
Fell to its lowest point since 1999 in recent weeks
Graph source: ONS
www.barbour-abi.com
UK Economy
Inflation on the rise
Most immediate implication of the Brexit vote
Graph source: ONS
www.barbour-abi.com
Construction Sector
Robust growth in 2015
Slow start to 2016
Graph source: ONS
www.barbour-abi.com
Construction Sector
London & the South East lead the way
Graph source: ONS
UK Construction
www.barbour-abi.com
Strong first half of the year but signs of slowing post Brexit
Graph source: Barbour ABI
Construction Sector
Contracts Awarded
www.barbour-abi.com
UK Construction
Residential the largest sector by value, followed by infrastructure
Graph source: Barbour ABI
Value of Contracts per Sector
www.barbour-abi.com
UK Construction
9% year-on-year drop in contract values
Graph source: Barbour ABI
London contract awards
www.barbour-abi.com
UK Construction
12.9% year-on-year drop in contract values
Graph source: Barbour ABI
East Midlands contract awards
www.barbour-abi.com
UK Construction
27.8% year-on-year drop in contract values
Graph source: Barbour ABI
North East contract awards
www.barbour-abi.com
UK Construction
23.9% year-on-year increase in contract values
Graph source: Barbour ABI
North West contract awards
www.barbour-abi.com
UK Construction
19.5% year-on-year increase in contract values
Graph source: Barbour ABI
Scotland contract awards
www.barbour-abi.com
UK Construction
37.9% year-on-year increase in contract values
Graph source: Barbour ABI
West Midlands contract awards
www.barbour-abi.com
UK Construction
20.6% year-on-year increase in contract values
Graph source: Barbour ABI
Yorkshire contract awards
www.barbour-abi.com
UK Construction
6.1% year-on-year increase in contract values
Graph source: Barbour ABI
South West contract awards
www.barbour-abi.com
UK Construction
18.5% year-on-year increase in contract values
Graph source: Barbour ABI
Wales contract awards
www.barbour-abi.com
Major Projects
Manchester Airport Terminal 2 - Transformation Project - £450,000,000 Primary Category Sector: Transport Passenger Facilities
Start Date: April 2017
End Date: April 2025
Funding: Mainly private
Stage: Contract
Main Contractor: Laing O’Rourke
Stanley Dock - Tobacco Warehouse - Liverpool £60,000,000 Primary Category Sector: Flats, apartments
Start Date: March 2016
End Date: March 2019
Funding: Private
Stage: Contract
Main Contractor: Abercorn Construction
www.barbour-abi.com
Major Projects
Midland Metropolitan Hospital £280,000,000 Primary Category Sector: Public hospitals
Start Date: November 2015
End Date: October 2018
Funding: Public
Stage: Subcontract
Main Contractor: Carillion
Paradise Circus - One Chamberlain Square Birmingham £250,000,000 Primary Category Sector: General offices
Start Date: September 2016
End Date: October 2018
Funding: Private
Stage: Contract
Main Contractor: Carillion
www.barbour-abi.com
Major Projects
Aberdeen Exhibition and Conference Centre £330,000,000 Primary Category Sector: Exhibition centres
Start Date: July 2016
End Date: July 2019
Funding: Private
Stage: Subcontract
Main Contractor: Robertson
Beatrice Offshore Wind Farm £1,000,000,000 Primary Category Sector: Infrastructure
Start Date: Mid 2017
End Date: 2020
Funding: Private
Stage: Contract
Main Contractor: Siemens/Nexans/Seaway Heavy Lifting
www.darmodyarchitects.ie
www.barbour-abi.com
Outlook
The outlook for construction growth remains positive. • Initial Brexit impact evident • Pick up in activity in September but still early days • Residential is key to the industry • Signs that areas outside of London will see more growth • London will still be the main location • Growth forecast for 2016 but pace slowing • Future trading arrangements will determine prospects • Long standing skills shortages will also impact
2015 2016 2017 2018
Construction Growth 4.9% 0.6% 0.2 4.9%
Source: ONS/Construction Products Association
www.barbour-abi.com
Contact Us
TEL: 0151 353 3500 FAX: 0151 353 3501 EMAIL: [email protected] WEB: www.barbour-abi.com
Economic & Construction Market Review The next issue is available from 20th November. Ask for details.