projection methods for integrating population variables
TRANSCRIPT
PREFACE
This is the third and final module of the first volume of the manual onprojection methods for integrating population concerns into development planning,which has been prepared by the Population Division of the Department ofInternational Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat. Thefirst module dealt with conceptual issues and methods for preparing demographicprojections. The second module presented methods for preparing school enrolment,labour force and employment projections. This module describes techniques forpreparing projections of household and other incomes, household consumption andsavings and government consumption and investment. These techniques can be usedto make a series of interrelated projections of demographic and socio-economicvariables for comprehensive planning that take into account key linkages betweenpopulation and socio-economic change.
The third module is the result of a collaborative effort of the PopulationDivision, two consultants and the Latin American Demographic Centre of theEconomic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. Draft materialsdescribing methods for projecting incomes were prepared by James C. Knowles.Drafts of materials for projecting consumption and savings were prepared byRobert K1einbaum. A description of the technique for projecting governmentexpenditures was contributed by Michael V1assoff of the Latin AmericanDemographic Centre. These drafts were revised and put in their present form byMiros1av Macura, then a staff member of the Population Division. The PopulationDivision is grateful to Messrs. Knowles, Kleinbaum, Vlassoff and Macura for theirrespective contributions to this module.
The preparation of this manual was made possible by the generous supportof the United Nations Population Fund. This support included not only financialsupport but also helpful suggestions concerning the substance and presentationof the topics contained within the three modules. This assistance from theUnited Nations Population Fund is gratefully acknowledged by the PopulationDivision.
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CONTENTS
Explanatory Notes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ii
Preface , iii
Chapter
IX. PROJECTING INCOME USING A SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX . 1
A. Introduction 1
B. The technique 4
1. Overview 4(a) Inputs 4(b) Outputs 7(c) Computational steps 8
2. National level 8(a) Incomes of factors of production 8
(i) Wages 9(ii) Profits 12
(b) Factor incomes of institutions 12(i) Factor income of households 12
(ii) Factor income of corporation.............. 14(c) Gross incomes of institutions 14
(i) Gross income of corporations.............. 14(ii) Gross income of households 14
(iii) Gross income of government 15a. Household income taxes 15b. Corporate income taxes 15c. Net indirect taxes 16
(d) Disposable incomes of institutions 16(i) Disposable household income 17
(ii) Disposable corporate income 17(iii) Disposable government income 17
(e) Other results .........•........................ 17(i) Aggregates of disposable income 17
a. Total disposable income 18b. Growth in total disposable income 18c. Growth in disposable incomes of
institutions. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18(ii) Indicators of the distribution
of total disposable income 19
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CONTENTS (Continued)
Chapter ~
(iii) Rates of growth of disposable incomes .... 19a. The rate of growth of total
disposable income.................. 19b. Rates of growth of disposable
incomes of institutions...... ..... 20(iv) Levels of per capita and per household
disposable incomes of households 21(v) Rates of change of per capita and
per household disposable incomesof households 22a. Geometric growth rates 22b. Exponential growth rates 23
3. Urban-rural level 23(a) Different categories of incomes .. 23(b) Other results 24
(i) Proportions of disposable householdincome that are urban and rural......... 24
(ii) Urban-rural differentials in percapita and per household disposablehousehold incomes 24
C. The inputs 25
1. Types of inputs required 252. Preparation of the inputs 26
(a) Projections of value added, populationsize and the number of households 26
(b) Assumptions on the various proportionsand ratios 26(i) Observations on proportions and ratios.... 27
a. Procedures to derive observationson proportions and ratios 27
b. Illustrating the derivation ofobservations on proportionsand ratios........................... 32
(ii) Assumptions on future values ofproportions and ratios 32
(c) Assumptions on transfers. 34(i) Observations on the relevant ratios 34
a. Procedures to derive observationson ratios. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34
b. Illustrative derivation ofobservations on ratios............... 36
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CONTENTS (Continued)
Chapter ~
(ii) Assumptions on future values of ratios... 36(iii) Derive future values of transfers ... .... 36
a. Procedure to derive futurevalues of transfers.. 36
b. Illustrative derivation offuture values of transfers. 38
D. Illustrative examples of projections 38
1. National projection 38(a) Incomes of factors of production 38
(i) Wages 38(ii) Profits 40
(b) Factor incomes of institutions. 40(i) Factor income of households 40
(ii) Factor income of corporations..... 45(c) Gross incomes of institutions 45
(i) Gross income of corporations .. 45(ii) Gross household income 45
(iii) Gross income of government 47a. Household income taxes 47b. Corporate income taxes 47c. Net indirect taxes 47
(d) Disposable incomes of institutions 49(i) Disposable household income 49
(ii) Disposable corporate income 49(iii) Disposable government income 50
(e) Other resul ts 50(i) Aggregates of disposable income 50
a. Total disposable income 50b. Growth in total disposable income... 54c. Growth of disposable incom
of institutions 54(ii) Indicators of the distribution of
total disposable income 54(iii) Rates of growth of disposable incomes 55
a. The rate of growth of thetotal disposable income.......... 55
b. Rates of growth of disposableincomes of institutions .. 57
(iv) Levels of per capita and per householddisposable incomes of households 60
(v) Rates of change of per capita andper household disposable incomeof households 60
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CONTENTS (Continued)
Chapter ~
a. Geometric growth rates 60b. Exponential growth rates 63
2. Urban-rural projection 63(a) Different categories of incomes 63(b) Other results 74
(i) Proportions of disposable householdincome that are urban and rural........ 74
(ii) Urban-rural income differentials inper capita and per householddisposable income of households 83
E. Summary,
......................................................................................................... 83
F. Notation and equations 87
1. Indices, variables and special symbols 872. Equations 91
Annexes
I. SOCIAL ACCOUNTING MATRIX 102
II. ILLUSTRATIVE DERIVATION OF VARIOUS PROPORTIONS AND RATIOS.. 106
III. ILLUSTRATIVE DERIVATION OF THE RATIOS OF VARIOUSTRANSFERS TO GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT AND OFFUTURE VALUES OF THOSE TRANSFERS 117
References 121
X. PROJECTING HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION AND SAVINGSUSING PER-HOUSEHOLD SPECIFICATIONS OF DEMAND SYSTEMS 122
A. Introduction....... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 122
B. The technique .. .. 124
1. Overview 124(a) Inputs........................................ 124(b) Outputs....................................... 125(c) Computational steps 126
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CONTENTS (Continued)
Chapter ~
2. National level 128(a) Procedure assuming exogenous savings 128
(i) Consumption functions 128(ii) Average household consumption
and savings 132a. Average household expenditure 132b. Average household consumption
by commodity group 133c. Adjusted levels of average
household consumption bycommodity group 135
d. Average household savings 135(iii) Household consumption and savings 136(iv) Other results 136
a. Household consumption and savingsaggregates 136
b. Indicators of the spending patternof households 138
c. Rates of growth of householdconsumption and savings 139
(b) Procedure based on the demand systemwith endogenous savings 141
(i) Consumption functions 141(ii) Savings function 145
(iii) Average household consumptionand savings 146
a. Levels of per household consumptionby commodity group 146
b. Average household savings 147c. Levels of average household
consumption by commodity groupaverage and household savings ..... 148
3. Urban-rural level 149(a) Procedure based on the demand system
with exogenous savings 149(i) Consumption functions 150
(ii) Levels of average householdconsumption and savings 150
(iii) Levels of household consumptionand savings 150
(iv) Other results 150a. Proportions of national household
consumption that are urbanand rural 150
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CONTENTS (Continued)
Chapter ~b. Proportions of national household
saving that are urban or rural 151
(b) Procedures based on the demand systemwith endogenous savings 151
(i) Consumption and savings function 151(ii) Levels of average household
consumption and savings 152(iii) Household consumption and savings
and other results 152
C. The inputs .. ........ . . .... .. . .. . .. ~ . . .. .. . .. ..... . ... ... .. . 152
1. Types of inputs required 152
2. Preparation of the inputs 152(a) Assumptions on the average savings ratio 153(b) Estimates of the functions of
alternative demand systems 156(i) Cross section data 156
(ii) Procedures to estimate alternativedemand systems 156
a. Demand system with exogenoussavings 157
b. Demand system with endogenoussavings 159
(iii) Illustrative estimation 161a. National level 161b. Urban-rural level 170
(c) Calibration of the empiricallyestimated functions 186
D. Illustrative examples of projections 186
1. National projection 186(a) Average household consumption and savings 188
(i) Average household expenditure 188(ii) Average household consumption
by commodity group 188(iii) Adjusted levels of average household
consumption by commodity group 190(iv) Average household savings 191
(b) Levels of household consumption and savings 191(c) Other results 194
(i) Household consumption andsavings aggregates 194
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CONTENTS (Continued)
Chapter
a. Household consumption 194b. Household consumption by broad
commodity groups 194c. Growth in household consumption 197d. Growth in household consumption
by broad commodity groups 197e. Growth in household savings 197
(ii) Indicators of the spending patternof household 197
a. Disposable household income 197b. Proportions of disposable
household income spent ongoods and services in broadin broad commodity groups 199
c. Proportion of dispo~able householdincome saved 199
(iii) Rates of growth of householdconsumption and savings 199
a. The rate of growth of householdconsumption 199
b. Rates of growth of householdconsumption by broad commoditygroups 201
c. The rate of growth of householdsavings 201
2. Urban-rural projection 204(a) Average household consumption and savings 204(b) Levels of household consumption and savings 211(c) Other results 211
(i) Proportions of national householdconsumption urban and rural 211
(ii) Proportions of national householdsavings urban and rural 220
E. Summary . . 220
F. Notation and equations 224
1. Indices, variables and special symbols 2242. Equations............................................ 229
Annex. Procedures to calibrate per-household demandsystems with exogenous and endogenous savings 237
References 251
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CONTINUED (Continued)
Chapter
XI . MAKING PROJECTIONS OF HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTIONAND SAVINGS USING LINEAR EXPENDITURE SySTEMS , 252
A. Introduction .. 10 ..252
B. The technique 254
1. Overview................... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 254(a) Inputs........................................ 255(b) Outputs....................................... 255(c) Computational steps 256
2. National level 258
(a) Procedure based on the linearexpendi ture system .
(i)(ii)
(iii)
(iv)
Expenditure functions ,Levels of per capita household
consumption and savings .a. Level of per capita total
household expenditure ., .b. Levels of per capita household
consumption by commodity group .c. Level of per capita
household savings .Levels of household consumption by
commodity group and householdsavings .
a. Household consumption bycommodity group '" .
b. Household savings .Other resu1 ts .a. Household consumption and
savings aggregates .b. Indicators of the spending
pattern of households .c. Rates of growth of household
consumption and savings .
258258
261
261
262
262
262
263263263
263
265
266
(b) Procedure based on the extendedlinear expenditure system 268
(i) Expenditure functions 268(ii) Levels of per capita household
consumption and savings 270
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CONTENTS (Continued)
Chapter ~
a. Levels of per capita householdconsumption by commodity group 270
b. Level of per capita totalhousehold consumption 271
c. Level of per capitahousehold savings 272
(iii) Levels of household consumption andsavings and other results 272
3. Urban-rural level 272(a) Procedure based on the linear
expenditure system 272(i) Expenditure functions 272
(ii) Levels of per capita householdconsumption and savings 272
(iii) Levels of household consumptionand savings 272
(iv) Other results 273a. Proportions of total household
consumption that are urbanand rural 273
b. Proportions of household savingsthat are urban and rural 273
(b) Procedure based on the extendedlinear expenditure system 274
(i) Expenditure functions 274(ii) Levels of per capita household
consumption and savings 274(iii) Levels of household consumption
and savings and other results 274
C. Inputs 274
1. Types of inputs required 2752. Preparation of inputs 275
(a) Assumptions on the average householdsavings ratio 275
(b) Estimates of expenditure functions ofthe alternative expenditure systems 276
(i) Cross-section data 277(ii) Procedures to estimate alternative
expenditure systems 277a. National level 277b. Urban-rural level 278
- xii -
CONTENTS (Continued)
Chapter ~
(iii) Illustrative estimation 279a. National level 279b. Urban-rural level 282
(c) Calibration of the empiricallyestimated functions 287
D. Illustrative examples of projections 287
1. National projection , 290(a) Levels of per capita household
consumption and savings 290(i) Per capita total household expenditure 290
(ii) Levels of per capita householdconsumption by commodity group 290
(iii) Level of per capita household savings 293(b) Levels of household consumption by
commodity group and levels ofhousehold savings 293
(i) Household consumption by commoditygroup 293
(ii) Household savings 293(c) Other results 295
(i) Household consumption andsavings aggregates 295
a. Total household consumption 295b. Household consumption by broad
commodity groups 295c. Growth in total household
consumption 299d. Growth in household consumption
by broad commodity groups 299e. Growth in household savings 301
(ii) Indicators of spending patternof household 301
a. Disposable household income 301b. Proportions of disposable
household income spent ongoods and services in broadcommodity groups 301
c. Proportion of disposablehousehold income saved 301
(iii) Rates of growth of householdconsumption and savings 302
- xiii -
CONTENTS (Continued)
Chapter ~
a. Rate of growth of totalhousehold consumption 302
b. Rates of growth of householdconsumption by broad commoditygroups 302
c. Rate of growth of householdsavings 305
2. Urban-rural projection 307(a) Levels of per capita household
consumption and savings 307(i) Levels of per capita household
consumption by commodity group 309(ii) Level of per capita total
household consumption 311(iii) Level of per capita
household savings 311(iv) Levels of household consumption
and savings 311(b) Other results 317
(i) Proportions of total householdconsumption that are urbanand rural 317
(ii) Proportions of household savingsthat are urban and rural 317
E.
F.
Summary
Notation and equations
324
328
1. Indices, variables and special symbols 3282. Equations... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 331
Annexes
I. Linear expenditure system 338
II. Extended linear expenditure system
III. Procedures to calibrate the linear expendituresystem and the extended linear expenditure system
343
348
References 357
- xiv -
CONTENTS (Continued)
Chapter
XII. PROJECTING GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION ANDINVESTMENT IN EDUCATION, HEALTH AND HOUSING 358
A. Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 358
B. The technique 362
1. Overview............................................. 362
(a) Inputs........................................ 362(b) Outputs....................................... 363(c) Computational steps 364
2. National level 364
(a) Recurrent expenditures 364(i) Operating expenditures 364
(ii) Total administrative expenditure 369(iii) Total recurrent expenditure 370
(b) Investment expenditures 370(i) Change in the numbers of service
input units, by type of input 370(ii) Numbers of service input units
requiring replacement, by typeof input 372
(iii) Levels of investment expenditures,by type of service input 373
(iv) Total investment expenditure 373(c) Other results 374
(i) Expenditure aggregates 374(ii) Growth in expenditures 374
(iii) Indicators of the structureof expenditure 375
(iv) Rates of growth of expenditures 376
3. Urban-rural level 377
(a) Recurrent expenditures 378(i) Operating expenditures 378
(ii) Administrative expenditures 378(iii) Total recurrent expenditures 378
(b) Investment expenditures 379(i) Changes in service input units 379
(ii) Service input units requiringreplacement '379
- xv -
CONTENTS (Continued)
Chapter ~
(iii) Levels of investment expendituresby type of service input 379
(c) Other results 379(i) Proportion urban ...•...................... 379
(ii) Proportion rural 380
C. The inputs . . 380
1. Types of inputs required 380
2. Preparation of inputs 380(a) Projected numbers of users 380(b) Observations on service input rates,
attrition rates, unit expendituresand ratios of administrative tooperating expenditures 381
(i) Service input rates 381(ii) Attrition rates 382
(iii) Unit expenditures 382(iv) Ratios of administrative to operating
expenditure 383(c) Assumptions on service input rates,
attrition rates, unit expendituresand ratios of administrative tooperating expenditures 383
(i) Service input rates 384(ii) Attrition rates 384
(iii) Unit expenditures 384(iv) Ratios of administrative to operating
expenditure 385
D. Illustrative examples of projections 385
1. National projection for the education sector 385(a) Recurrent expenditures 387
(i) Operating expenditures 387(ii) Total administrative expenditure 390
(iii) Total recurrent expenditures 390(b) Investment expenditures 390
(i) Changes in the numbers of serviceinput units, by type ofinput service 390
- xvi -
CONTENTS (Continued)
Chapter
(ii) Numbers of service input units requiringreplacement, by type of input service 393
(iii) Levels of investment expenditures,by type of service input 396
(iv) Total investment expenditure 396(c) Other results 396
(i) Expenditure aggregates " 400(ii) Growth in expenditures ; 400
(iii) Indicators of the structure ofexpenditure 403
(iv) Rates of growth of expenditures 403
2. Urban-rural projection for the health sector 408(a) Recurrent expenditures 408(b) Investment expenditures 416(c) Other resul ts 416
(i) Proportion urban 416(ii) Proportion rural 416
3. Urban projection for the housing sector 422
E. Summary......... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. 422
F. Notation and equations..................................... 428
1. Indices, variables and special symbols 428
2. Equations 430
Annex. Derivation of the formulas to computechanges in the numbers of service input unitsassuming that growth in those numbers occursover discrete intervals 436
References 439
Glossary ". 440
- xvii -
CONTENTS (Continued)
Tables
tiQ,.
1. An illustrative social accounting matrix 28
2. An illustrative social accounting matrix involvingsome urban-rural disaggregations 29
3. Inputs for projecting incomes at the national level;projected value added by industry, populationsize and number of households 39
4. Inputs for projecting incomes at the national level;assumptions on the various proportions and ratios 41
5. Inputs for projecting incomes at the national level:assumptions relating to transfers 42
6. Projecting wages at the national level in year 5 43
7. Projecting profits at the national level in year 5.............. 44
8. Projected factor incomes, gross incomes and disposableincomes of institutions 46
9. Projecting net indirect taxes at the national levelin year 5 48
10. Disposable incomes: aggregates, indicators of thedistribution and rates of growth ..... ~....................... 51
11. Levels and rates of growth of per capita and perhousehold disposable incomes of households 62
12. Inputs for projecting incomes at the urban level; projectedvalue added by industry, population size and number ofhouseholds 65
13. Inputs for projecting incomes at the urban level;assumptions on the various proportions and ratios 66
14. Inputs for projecting incomes at the urban level;assumptions relating to transfers 67
- xviii -
CONTENTS (Continued)
15. Inputs for projecting incomes at the rural level;projected value added by industry, population sizeand number of households 68
16. Inputs for projecting incomes at the rural level;assumptions on the various proportions and ratios............. 69
17. Inputs for projecting incomes at the rural level;assumptions relating to transfers 70
18. Projected factor incomes, gross incomes and disposableincomes of institutions in urban areas ....................... 71
B. Projected factor incomes, gross incomes and disposableincomes of institutions in rural areas ....................... 72
20. Projected factor incomes, gross incomes and disposableincomes of institutions for the entire country ............... 73
21. Disposable incomes: aggregates, indicators of thedistribution and rates of growth in urban areas 75
22. Levels and rates of growth of per capita and per householddisposable incomes of households in urban areas 76
23. Disposable incomes: aggregates, indicators of thedistribution and rates of growth in rural areas 77
24. Levels and rates of growth of per capita and per householddisposable incomes of households in rural areas 78
25.
26.
27.
Disposable incomes: aggregates, indicators of thedistribution and rates of growth for the entire country
Levels and rates of growth of per capita and per householddisposable incomes of households for the entire country
Proportionate urban-rural differentials in per capitaand per household disposable incomes for households
79
80
84
28. Calculating value added by industry for the entire country 107
29. Calculating proportions of value added going to wagesby industry for the entire country 108
- xix -
CONTENTS (Continued)
30. Calculating ratios of net indirect taxes to value addedby industry for the entire country .
31. Calculating value added by industry for urbanand rural areas .
32. Calculating proportions of value added going to wages byindustry for urban and rural areas .
33. Calculating ratios of net indirect taxes to valueadded by industry for the entire country .
34. Observations on average household expenditures by commoditygroup, average total household expenditure and averagehousehold size: averages for 10 clusters of households .
35. Observations on average household expenditures by commoditygroup, average household savings, average householddisposable income and average household size: averagefor 10 clusters of households .
36. Estimates of the coefficients of linear consumptionfunctions of the demand system with exogenoussavings for the entire country .
37. Estimates of the coefficients of log-linear consumptionfunctions of the demand system with exogenous savingsfor the entire country .
38. Computing estimates of intercept coefficients of non-linearconsumption functions of the demand system withexogenous savings for the entire country .
39. Estimates of the coefficients of linear consumptionand savings functions of the demand system withendogenous savings for the entire country .
40. Estimates of the coefficients of log-linear consumption andsavings functions of the demand system with endogenoussavings for the entire country .
- xx -
110
112
113
114
162
163
164
166
167
168
171
CONTENTS (Continued)
41. Computing estimates of slope coefficients of multiplicativeconsumption and savings functions of the demand systemwith endogenous savings for the entire country...... 172
42. Estimates of the coefficients of linear consumptionfunctions of the demand system with exogenous savingsfor urban areas 174
43. Estimates of the coefficients of linear consumptionfunctions of the demand system with exogenous savingsfor rural areas 175
44. Estimates of the coefficients of log-linear consumptionfunctions of the demand system with exogenous savingsfor urban areas 176
45. Estimates of the coefficients of log-linear consumptionfunctions of the demand system with exogenous savingsfor rural areas 177
46. Computing estimates of slope coefficients of multiplicativeconsumption functions of the demand system with endogenoussavings for urban and rural areas 178
47. Estimates of the coefficients of linear consumption andsavings functions of the demand system with endogenoussavings for urban areas 180
48. Estimates of the coefficients of linear consumption andsavings functions of the demand system with endogenoussavings for rural areas 181
49. Estimates of the coefficients of log-linear consumptionand savings functions of the demand system withendogenous savings for urban areas 183
50. Estimates of the coefficients of log-linear consumptionand savings functions of the demand system withendogenous savings for rural areas 184
51. Computing estimates of slope coefficients of multiplicativeconsumption and savings functions of the demand systemwith endogenous savings for urban and rural areas 185
- xxi -
CONTENTS (Continued)
52. Inputs for projecting household consumption and savingsfor the entire country ................................•...... 187
53. Deriving preliminary levels of average household consumptionby commodity group for the entire country: end ofprojection interval 0-5 189
54. Projected levels of average household consumption bycommodity group and average household savings 192
55. Projected levels of household consumption by commoditygroup and projected levels of household savings 193
56. Household consumption and savings aggregates, indicatorsof the pattern of household spending and rates ofhousehold consumption and savings change for theentire country 195
57. Inputs for projecting household consumption and savingsfor urban areas 205
58. Inputs for projecting household consumption and savingsfor rural areas 206
59. Deriving levels of average household consumption bycommodity group and average household savings forurban areas: end of projection interval 0-5 208
60. Projected levels of average household consumption bycommodity group and average household savings forurban areas 209
61. Projected levels of average household consumption bycommodity group and average household savings forrural areas 210
62. Projected levels of household consumption by commoditygroup and household savings for urban areas 212
63. Projected levels of household consumption by commoditygroup and household savings for rural areas 213
64. Projected levels of household consumption by commoditygroup and household savings for the entire country........... 214
- xxii -
CONTENTS (Continued)
65. Household consumption and savings aggregates, indicatorsof the pattern of household spending and rates ofhousehold consumption and savings change for urban areas 217
66. Household consumption and savings aggregates, indicatorsof the pattern of household spending and rates ofhousehold consumption and savings change for rural areas 218
67. Household consumption and savings aggregates, indicatorsof the pattern of household spending and rates ofhousehold consumption and savings change for theentire country 219
68. Computing adjusted intercept coefficients for selectedlog-linear consumption functions of the demand systemwith exogenous savings for the entire country usingdata for a selected year 244
69. Computing adjusted intercept coefficients for selectedlinear consumption and savings functions of the demandsystem with endogenous savings for urban areas usingdata for a selected year 246
70. Computing adjusted intercept coefficients for selectedlinear consumption and savings functions of the demandsystem with endogenous savings for rural areas usingdata for a selected year 247
71. Illustrative data required to estimate expenditurefunctions of the linear expenditure system 280
72. Estimates of the coefficients of expenditure functionsof the linear expenditure system for the entirecountry 281
73. Illustrative data required to estimate expenditurefunctions of the extended linear expenditure system 283
74. Estimates of the coefficients of expenditure functionsof the extended linear expenditure system for theentire country 284
75. Estimates of the coefficients of expenditure functionsof the linear expenditure system for urban areas.............. 286
- xxiii -
CONTENTS (Continued)
76. Estimates of the coefficients of expenditure functionsof the linear expenditure system for rural areas 286
77. Estimates of the coefficients of expenditure functionsof the extended linear expenditure system for urban areas 288
78. Estimates of the coefficients of expenditure functionsof the extended linear expenditure system forrural areas 289
79. Inputs for projecting household consumption and savingsfor the entire country using the linear expenditure system 291
80.
81.
Deriving levels of per capita household consumptionby commodity group for the entire country, year 5
Projected levels of per capita household consumptionby commodity group and per capita household savings
292
294
82. Projected levels of household consumption by commoditygroup and household savings 296
83. Household consumption and savings aggregates, indicatorsof the pattern of household spending and rates of growthof household consumption and savings for theentire country 297
84. Inputs for projecting household consumption and savingsfor urban areas using the extended linear expendituresystem " . . .. . .. . .. . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .. . .. . .. . . . 308
85. Inputs for projecting household consumption and savingsfor rural areas using the extended linear expendituresystem....................................................... 309
86. Deriving levels of per capita household consumption bycommodity group for urban areas: end of projectioninterval 0-5 310
87. Projected levels of per capita household consumptionby commodity group and per capita household savingsfor urban areas 312
- xxiv -
CONTENTS (Continued)
88. Projected levels of per capita household consumptionby commodity group and per capita household savingsfor rural areas 313
89. Projected levels of household consumption by commoditygroup and household savings for urban areas 314
90. Projected levels of household consumption by commoditygroup and household savings for rural areas 315
91. Projected levels of household consumption by commoditygroup and household savings for the entire country........... 316
92. Household consumption and savings aggregates, indicatorsof the pattern of household spending and rates ofhousehold consumption and savings change forurban areas 318
93. Household consumption and savings aggregates, indicatorsof the pattern of household spending and rates ofhousehold consumption and savings change forrural areas 319
94. Household consumption and savings aggregates, indicatorsof the pattern of household spending and rates ofhousehold consumption and savings change forthe entire country 320
95. Computing adjusted intercept coefficients for expenditurefunctions of the linear expenditure system for the entirecountry using data for a selected year 352
96. Computing adjusted intercept coefficients for expenditurefunctions of the extended linear expenditure system forurban areas using data for a selected year 353
97. Computing adjusted intercept coefficients for expenditurefunctions of the extended linear expenditure system forrural areas using data for a selected year 354
98. Inputs for projecting government consumption andinvestment in the education sector for the lower-primaryschool level: entire country................................. 386
- xxv -
CONTENTS (Continued)
99. Computing the numbers of service input units, by type ofservice input, for the lower-primary-school level:entire country, year 5 388
100. Calculating levels of operating expenditures, by type ofservice input, for the lower-primary-school level:entire country, year 5 389
101. Calculating total administrative expenditure for thelower-primary school level; entire country, year 5 391
102. Computing changes in the numbers of service input units,by type of service input, for the lower-primaryschool level: entire country, year 5 392
103. Calculating the numbers of service input units requiringreplacement, by type of service input, for thelower-primary school level: entire country, year 5 394
104. Projected numbers of service input units, changes inthose number and numbers of service input unitsrequiring replacement for the lower-primary schoollevel: entire country 395
105. Calculating levels of investment expenditures, by type ofservice input, for the lower-primary school level:entire country, year 5 397
106. Projected operating and investment expenditures, by type ofservice input, for the lower-primary school level:entire country, 398
107. Expenditure aggregates, structure and rates of growth forthe lower-primary school level: entire country............... 401
108. Inputs for projecting government consumption andinvestment in the health sector: urban areas 409
109. Inputs for projecting government consumption andinvestment in the health sector: rural areas 410
110. Projected numbers of service input units for the healthsector: urban areas 411
- xxvi -
CONTENTS (Continued)
111. Projected numbers of service input units for the healthsector: rural areas 412
112. Projected numbers of service input units for the healthsector: entire country 413
113. Projected operating expenditures, by type of serviceinput, for the health sector: urban areas 414
114. Projected operating expenditures, by type of serviceinput, for the health sector: rural areas 415
115. Projected operating expenditures, by type of serviceinput, for the health sector: entire country.. 417
116. Expenditure aggregates, structure and rates of growthfor the health sector: urban areas 418
117. Expenditure aggregates, structure and rates of growthfor the health sector: rural areas 419
118. Expenditure aggregates, structure and rates of growthfor the health sector: entire country........................ 420
119. Inputs for projecting government consumption and investmentfor the housing sector: urban areas 423
120. Projected numbers of service input units, changes inthose number and numbers of units requiring replacementfor the housing sector: urban areas 424
121. Projected operating and investment expenditures forthe housing sector: urban areas 425
122. Expenditure aggregates, structure and rates of growthfor the housing sector: urban areas 426
Fhures
H2.
I. Steps to project incomes at the national level............. 13
II. Total disposable income 52
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CONTENTS (Continued)
NQ.
III. Disposable incomes of households, corporationsand government 53
IV. Proportions of the total disposable incomes receivedby various institutions in the initial and theterminal year 56
V. Rate of growth of total disposable income 58
VI. Rates of growth of disposable incomes of institutions 59
VII. Levels of per capita and per household disposablehousehold income 61
VIII. Rates of growth of per capita and per householddisposable household income 64
IX. Total disposable income: urban, rural and national. 81
X. Proportions of disposable household income that areurban and rural 82
XI. Steps to project household consumption and savingsusing the demand system with exogenous savings 130
XII. Steps to project household consumption savings at thenational level using the demand system with endogenoussavings 143
XIII. Household consumption and household savings 196
XIV. Household consumption by broad groups (food,clothing and other) 198
XV. Proportions of disposable household income spent orsaved in the initial and the terminal years 200
XVI. Rates of growth of household consumption andhousehold savings 202
XVII. Rates of growth of household consumption by broadcommodity groups 203
XVIII. Household consumption: urban, rural and national 215
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CONTENTS (Continued)
XIX. Household savings: urban, rural and national 216
XX. Proportions of household consumption that are urbanand rural 221
XXI. Proportions of household savings that are urbanand rural 222
XXII. Steps to project household consumption and savings at thenational level using the linear expenditure system 260
XXIII. Steps to proj~ct household consumption and savingsat the national level using the extended linearexpenditure system 269
XXIV. Total household consumption and savings 298
XXV. Household consumption by broad groups(food, clothing and other) 300
XXVI. Proportions of disposable household income spent orsaved in the initial and the terminal year 303
XXVII. Rates of growth of total household consumptionand savings 304
XXVIII. Rates of growth of household consumption by broadcommodity groups 306
XXIX. Total household consumption: urban, rural and national ..... 321
XXX. Household savings: urban, rural and national 322
XXXI. Proportions of household consumption that are urbanand rural 323
XXXII. Proportions of household savings that are urbanand rural 325
XXXIII. Steps needed to project government consumption andinvestment at the national level 368
XXXIV. Total recurrent and investment expenditures:lower-primary school level 399
- xxix -
CONTENTS (Continued)
XXXV. Total government expenditure: lower-primary schoollevel 402
XXXVI. Proportions of total government expenditureaccounted for by total recurrent and investmentexpenditures 404
XXXVII. Rates of growth of total recurrent and investmentexpenditures: lower-primary school level 406
XXXVIII. Rate of growth in total government expenditure:lower-primary school level 407
XXXIX. Proportions of total government expenditure in thehealth sector: urban and rural 421
~
1. Glossary
2. Glossary
3. Glossary
4. Glossary
...................................................................... """ ..
..............................................................................................................
..............................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................
2
3
5
6
5. Inputs for making income projections using thesocial accounting matrix 7
6. Types of outputs obtained by projecting incomes usingthe social accounting matrix 9
7. Computational steps needed to project incomesat the national level 10
8.
9.
Glossary
Glossary
..............................................................................................................
.............................................................................................................
27
33
10. Outputs of a method for projecting incomes using asocial accounting matrix 85
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CONTENTS (Continued)
11. Glossary ·.·.···. 103
12. Glossary....................................................... 123
13. Glossary....................................................... 124
14. Inputs for preparing household consumption and savingsprojections using per household demand systems 126
15. Types of outputs of the method for preparing householdconsumption and savings projections using per householddemand systems 127
16. Computational steps to project household consumption andsavings at the national level using the demand systemwith exogenous savings 129
17. Computational steps to project household consumption andsavings at the national level using the demand systemwith endogenous savings 142
18. Glossary....................................................... 154
19. Requisite survey data and their preparation for analysis 157
20. Outputs of the method for making household consumptionand savings projections using per-householddemand systems 223
21. Glossary 253
22. Inputs for preparing projections of householdconsumption and savings using the linearexpenditure system or the extended linearexpenditure system 256
23. Types of outputs derived from projections of householdconsumption and savings using the linear expendituresystem or the extended linear expenditure system 257
24. Computational steps to project household consumptionand savings at the national level using the linearexpenditure system 259
- xxxi -
CONTENTS (Continued)
25. Computational steps to project household consumptionand savings at the national level using the extendedlinear expenditure system 271
26. Outputs of the method for making household consumptionand savings projections using the linear expendituresystem or the extended linear expenditure system 326
27. Glossary 359
28. Microcomputer version of the Long-Range PlanningModel version 2 360
29. Glossary............... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361
30. Inputs for making government consumption and investmentpro jections 363
31. Types of outputs obtained by projecting governmentconsumption and investment 365
32. Computational steps needed to project governmentconsumption and investment at the national level 366
33. Outputs of a method for projecting government consumptionand investment 427
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