project: sustainable infrastructure for energy …...w/o chp w/ chp potential ghg reductions in 2030...
TRANSCRIPT
PROJECT: SUSTAINABLE
INFRASTRUCTURE FOR ENERGY
AND WATER SUPPLY (SINEWS)
PI: John C. Crittenden
Presented by: Arka Pandit
E-Mail: [email protected]
Participants in the RESIN Project
Arizona State
University
George G. Karady
Samuel Ariaratnam
Charles Perrings
Ke Li
John C. Crittenden
(PI)
Georgia Institute of Technology
Bert Bras
Doglas Noonan
Miroslav M. Begovic
Marilyn Brown
Steven P French
Outline
• Infrastructure Ecology
• Decentralized Water Resource Development: Low Impact
Development (LID)
• Decentralized Energy Production:
• Combined Heat and Power (CHP)
• Renewable Energy
• Policies for Adoption of Rain Water Harvesting and Compact
Living
• Large Scale Urban Development Simulation: Water Savings
and GHG Emission Reductions from LID and CHP
• Implications for Decision Making
• Summary
INFRASTRUCTURE
ECOLOGY
City
People
Economy
Transportation
Energy
Water
Waste
Buildings
Parks
Government
And many
more…
Industry
5
Q: With the next
generation of
infrastructure, what
are the implications
if we design, build,
and operate these
systems separately,
as we have done in
the past?
Interdependence of Different
Infrastructure Components
Land Use Energy
Transportation
Land Use Intensity & Type
Availability
Fuel Choice
Interconnection between Urban Infrastructure
System , Natural Environmental Systems and
Socio-Economic Systems
Incre
asin
g S
pati
ote
mp
ora
l S
cale
Why Infrastructure Ecology?
Analogies between UIS and Ecological Systems:
• are complex, dynamic and adaptive;
• are comprised of interconnected components;
• connect the natural and human environments;
• are scalable and show efficiency of scale;
• share some general architectural dynamics across time and space;
• create novelty; and
• cannot be evaluated by looking at any component element, but instead must
be examined as a system.
Problems with current paradigm of Urban Infrastructure Planning:
1. Compartmental Optimization resulting in:
1. Unintended Consequences
2. Sub-optimal System Level Performance
3. Non inclusion of macro-level emergent properties
The Synergistic Effects of
“Infrastructural Symbiosis” • Designing UIS using an infrastructure ecology approach alters and
reorganizes energy and resource flows, allowing one to consider the
potential synergistic effects arising from infrastructural symbiosis.
• The accumulated synergistic
effects of this particular model of
infrastructure ecology is significant:
• reduced water and energy
consumption,
• lower dependence on centralized
systems,
• larger share of renewables in the
electricity mix,
• reduced vehicle-miles travelled, &
• an increase in tax revenue.
DECENTRALIZED WATER
RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT:
LOW IMPACT DEVELOPMENT
Implementation of Low Impact Development
Techniques: Case Study of Atlanta, GA
• Benefits:
• For a 3-story apartment community,
• 40% reduction of potable water demand, about 12,000 Gal/cap/yr
• 37% reduction in impervious area
• 50% reduction in irrigated area
• 20% reduction of Life Cycle Impacts
Rain Barrel Rain Garden Pervious Space
Citywide implementation of Hybrid (LID + Centralized) System would save the city
~$1.2million per year in energy costs.
Rain gardens occupying 11% - 16% of community size can control 100% of stormwater
runoff generated in extreme rainfall events up to 8 in/24-hr.
DECENTRALIZED ENERGY
PRODUCTION: COMBINED
HEAT AND POWER (CHP)
Number of buildings= (Thermal output at max efficiency/Peak
thermal load)monthly
Summary: Building Energy Requirements
met by Air-Cooled Microturbines
R4
(12 Single
Family
homes)
RG4
(2 Apartment
buildings)
Heat
Cooling
Electricity
Thermal Load
Design Criteria
Electrical Load
Required
Excess
346.5 MWh
(100%)
106 MWh
(23%)
540 MWh
(100%)
360 MWh
(40%)
Required 778 MWh
(66%)
477 MWh
(54%)
Building Types
The design criteria for:
• R4 buildings is based on the usage of a 30kW microturbine
• RG4 buildings is based on the usage of a 60 kW microturbine
Summary of building energy requirements met
by CHP
30kW
MT
Electricity:
477MWh
(54%)
Thermal:
452.5 MWh
(123%)
60kW
MT
Electricity: 778
MWh (66%) Thermal: 900
MWh (140%)
Grid
Energy
Electricity:
218MWh (46%)
Electricity:
260MWh (34%) RG4: 2 6-story
apartment
buildings
R4: 12 Single
Family homes
Thermal load includes heating and cooling demand
437600 Gal 985300 Gal Water for
energy
savings
DECENTRALIZED ENERGY
PRODUCTION: RENEWABLE
ENERGY
NO-PV
40% PV
Simulation Results in Hourly
Resolution
The large variation in PV output
demands a higher capacity of
spinning reserves
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) and Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) power
Credit: Kempton and Tomić, 2005
PHEVs can send power back to the grid when parked, and function as distributed
storage for intermittent energy from renewable sources
US demand-supply balances during
maximum demand with various V2G
ratios in 2045
30% V2G penetration could reduce ~100 GW or about ⅓ of the total peak
demand of ~300 GW in US by 2045
Source: Modelling Load Shifting Using Electric Vehicles in a Smart Grid Environment – © OECD/IEA 2010
POLICIES FOR ADOPTION OF
RAIN WATER HARVESTING
AND COMPACT LIVING
Interactions between Infrastructure and
Socio-Economic Environment
Macro
Micro
Infrastructure
Systems
Water
Energy
Heating/
Cooling
Transportation
Socio-
Economic
Environment
Business
Neighborhood
Housing
Jobs
Emergent Properties: land use, water, energy and material
consumption, transportation quality, quality of life, and other
sustainability metrics.
Decisions, behaviors of Individual Agents and the relationship
of individual agents: location choice, traffic activity, and
willingness to pay
Housing Market
House inventory: apartment, single-family
Infrastructure service Stormwater management(1st yr)
Transportation improvement (5th yr)
Prospective homebuyers
• Socioeconomic attributes
• Preference 1. Evaluate candidate houses
2. Decide the biding house
3. Determine willingness to pay
Homeowners
Property value
Living community Green space
Transportation accessibility
Developers
• Asking price
• New house
investment decision
• Consider LID
options if impact fee
exists
Apartment
vs. Single-family Transaction price
Estate sale
Government • Collect property tax
• Distribute property tax for
infrastructure improvement
Bid
Price
Bid
Success
Asking Price
New houses
Impact
fee ?
House demand
for next period
Infrastructure
improvement
Agent-based Housing Market Simulation
Property
Tax
Land Use Pattern Between Business As Usual (BAU) and
More Sustainable Development (MSD)
: Single Family Homes : Apartment Homes
The total area for new development: 9 sq mi
More Sustainable Development
Business As Usual
Time: Year
Ho
us
eh
old
Nu
mb
er
Ho
us
eh
old
Nu
mb
er
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Total households
Households living insingle-family houses
Households living inapartments
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Sc
en
ari
os
Total
households
% of
households
living in
apartment
BAU 23,630 35.0%
MSD 24,475 58.0%
Impact fee for LID
non-compliance
penalty:
• $13,000 per unit
for single-family
house
• $1,500 per unit for
apartment home
Property Tax Revenues • BAU versus MSD
• Accumulation of property tax revenues for 30 years
• Surplus at time t = (property tax revenues at time t) – (new construction
cost for stormwater management at time t) + (Surplus at time t-1)
• Property tax revenues at time t = (house value at time t) × 0.4 × 0.01 ×
(number of households)
-$100
-$50
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Mil
lio
ns
Time: Year
BAU
MSD
URBAN DEVELOPMENT
SIMULATION AND LARGE SCALE
WATER SAVINGS CARBON
EMISSION REDUCTIONS FROM
LID AND CHP
Projected Growth Scenarios for Atlanta Business As Usual
Year 2030
More Sustainable Development
Year 2030
59,531
90,116
86,444
22,906
34,741 33,110
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Base year BAU MSD
2005 2030
GW
h
Energy from grid
Energy from grid w/ CHP
ATL Residential Energy Demand from Grid (with Air Cooled Microturbines in a Decentralized CHP system)
62% reduction
62% reduction
BAU= Business As Usual MSD= More Sustainable Development CHP: Combined Heat and Power
# of Households: Single Family: 1170283
Apartments: 458207
Single Family: 1783935
Apartments: 649907
Single Family: 1671596
Apartments: 763019
61% reduction
Note: The 2030 grid+CHP scenarios assumed all residential units in the base year were retrofitted with CHP systems
3198
1541
4874
2370
4637
2203
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
grid grid + CHP grid grid + CHP grid grid + CHP
Base year BAU MSD
2005 2030
MG
D (
10
6 g
all
on
pe
r d
ay)
Municipal water demand 'Water for energy' demand for residential energy production
ATL Water Demand Projection (Withdrawal) (with low flow fixtures + rooftop rainwater harvesting + CHP)
52% reduction 51% reduction
52% reduction
Note: The 2030 grid + CHP scenarios assumed all residential units in the base year were retrofitted with CHP
systems
370
207
569
323
496
259
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
grid grid + CHP grid grid + CHP grid grid + CHP
Base year BAU MSD
2005 2030
MG
D (
10
6 g
all
on
pe
r d
ay)
Industrial and domestic water consumption
Water consumption for residential energy production
ATL Water Consumption Projection (Evaporation) (with low flow fixtures + rooftop rainwater harvesting + CHP)
48% reduction 43% reduction
(Courtesy: Crittenden et al., Georgia Tech)
44% reduction
Note: The 2030 grid + CHP scenarios assumed all residential units in the base year were retrofitted with CHP
systems
149
164 163
89 99 98
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Base year BAU MSD
2005 2030
Mil
lio
n T
on
s o
f C
O2e
w/o CHP
w/ CHP
Potential GHG reductions in 2030
• The reduction is based on the electricity produced by CHP replacing that from the centralized
power plant.
• Base year case assumes that all existing homes are retrofitted to facilitate a CHP system.
• The 2030 grid+CHP scenarios assumed residential units in the base year were also
retrofitted with CHP systems
• For MSD implementation the CO2e Savings is 0.065 Gt
~ 40% Reduction in all cases
Projected Domestic Water Demand (with low flow fixture + rooftop rainwater harvesting + reclamation)
507
800
729 707
102
163 108 108
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2005 2030 2030(w/ low flow
fixture)
2030(w/ low flow
fixture +rooftop
rainwaterharvesting)
2005 2030 2030(w/ low flow
fixture)
2030(w/ low flow
fixture +rooftop
rainwaterharvesting)
Base year BAU MSD Base year BAU MSD
Water withdrawal Water consumption
MG
D (
10
6 G
all
on
pe
r d
ay)
57%
11.6% 8.8%
60 % 34 %
Water Withdrawal Water Consumption
328 65%
520 65%
456 63%
443 63%
Reclamation
IMPLICATIONS FOR
DECISION MAKING
Dimensions of Decision Making S
ho
rt
Local
Lo
ng
Global
Te
mp
ora
l S
ca
le
Spatial Scale
Adaptive
Management
Traditional
Engineering
Optimization
Sustainable and
Resilient Design
Sustainable and
Resilient Design
Sustainable and Resilient Design and
Adaptive Management
Sustainable and Resilient
Design
• Technological Intervention
• Increase the capacity of the
system to absorb shocks
from a perturbation and
minimize the damage.
• Decrease the response time
in the aftermath of a
perturbation
• Smart infrastructure:
wireless sensors to
communicate failure events
Adaptive Management
• Policy Intervention • To make the Urban
Infrastructure Systems more flexible and adaptable to changing scenarios.
• To increase and promote adoption of more “sustainable and resilient” alternatives (both technological and behavioral) across the urban System through policy tools.
SUMMARY
Summary
• Urban Systems Are All Connected and More Efficiency
Can be Achieved by Looking at Their Interactions
• Decentralized Energy and Combined Heat and Power
Can Save Energy and Water
• Decentralized Water / Low Impact Development Can
Save Water, Energy and Money
• Land Use/ Planning Is Vital in Reducing the Impact Of
Urban Systems and Examining Their Interactions
• Agent Based Models May Be Useful to Examine the
Adoption Rate of Policy Instruments
THANK YOU!!