BONUSBAMBI-BalticSeamarinebiodiversity–addressingthepotentialofadaptationtoclimatechangeimplications–GrantAgreementnumber:call2012-76.www.bambi.gu.se

BONUSBAMBIprojecthasreceivedfundingfromBONUS(Art185),fundedjointlybytheEUandfromnationalfundinginstitutionsaroundtheBalticSea.

PROJECTSUMMARY2015

Briefdescriptionoftheproject’soverallgoalandexpectedfinalresults The overall goal of BONUS BAMBI is to assess and through knowledge-based management improve capacities of marine species to cope with the current challenge of a rapidly changing Baltic Sea environment. During decreased salinity and increased temperatures of the Baltic Sea, species with marine origin, in particular, will be under heavier physiological stress than before. This stress may result in local extinction, unless species are able to adapt to the new conditions. Research results will help to understand the potential of organisms to evolve new adaptations and how management should be framed to support this. Expected results include suggestions of new policies and governance principles, and opportunities to model effects on species of various management measures.

BONUSBAMBIaimstoanswertheseurgentquestions:

• Willspeciesandecosystemsofmarineoriginadaptandsurvivethecoming50-100yearsinsidetheBalticSea?��

• Ifso,whatisneededintermsofpopulationsizes,populationconnectivityandgeneticvariation?• Whatgovernancestructures,policyinstrumentsandmanagementmeasurescanmitigatefuture

lossesofmarineBalticSeaspecies?

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Workperformedsincelastreportingperiod

During 2015 we have completed all sampling for genetic structure analyses, and prepared most of the samples that will be included in the comprehensive analysis of genetic structure of our target species. In addition, high quality DNA has been extracted and libraries have successfully been prepared now awaiting sequencing and production of massive genome data. The genome-wide sequence data will be used to assess both high-resolution population structure and evidence of local adaptation of populations of target species, and be of major input to formation of management strategies. Data on spatial distribution of species are generated through collaboration with partners and used in modelling current distribution of target species, and in combination with climate scenarios of future environments and oceanographic assessments of connectivity, is now used for climate-envelope modelling. We have experimentally tested the tolerance of predicted combinations of future temperature and salinity on populations of Idotea and Fucus, representative of outer, mid and inner part of the Baltic Sea. The results of these experiments will be combined with modelling and connectivity estimates to predict possible future changes in distribution of species, including the potential of evolutionary change to increase tolerance to extreme environments. For stickleback, rearing is in progress to produce offspring to be included in a test of transgenerational effects of increased tolerance to extreme climate. We have completed two studies reviewing the use of genetic information in biodiversity management at regional authorities and evaluating existing regional policies against international (EU and Rio) agreements.

Mainresultsachievedduringthereportingperiod

Using microsatellite DNA markers we have found that the genetic structure of both Fucus species, which are important foundation species in the Baltic Sea (F. radicans and F. vesiculosus), is much more complex in the Gulf of Finland and along the coasts of Estonia and SW Finland, than the corresponding structure along the Swedish and North-Finland coasts. From this, a main conclusion is that more comprehensive genetic markers (such as the RAD markers now used in the BONUS BAMBI project) are urgently needed to resolve the spatial dynamics of the Baltic Fucus species to set the state for informed management guidelines. Last year’s experimental result of ecological stress in a combined salinity/temperature environment of a future climate scenario showed deleterious effects for, in particular, both central and inner Fucus populations. This year, we repeated this experiment with Idotea, and the results were similarly worrying. Also this species is seriously threatened by combinations of increased temperature and decreased salinity expected in 70-100 years from now. The important question to address next is the potential for further adaptation of the Baltic populations, and the potential for dispersal favouring migration of innermost populations of the Baltic Sea towards the entrance. This question is addressed using connectivity modelling, and a first experimental assessment of magnitude of drift was received this year from monitoring drift of Fucus plants in the open sea. Drifted individuals were surprisingly common and modelling showed higher levels of connectivity among populations in the Baltic Proper and Bothnian Sea than expected from the genetic data.

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Finally, a comprehensive review of the use of information on genetic variation in management of regional authorities in Sweden and Finland showed that there are overall very few management policies that take into account genetic information, despite useful information is available in the scientific literature for at least some species. Main reasons include lack of time and knowledge for street-level bureaucrats, and no national policies or instructions of how to implement research findings on genetic variation in management plans. Thus we conclude that when genetic diversity is treated at a similar level of concern as species diversity in international agreements, this is definitely not followed up by instructions, national policies and management plans for marine nature reserves in the Baltic Sea area. During 2015 we started to discuss this issue with the Swedish national authority responsible for management of aquatic (including marine) fish and biodiversity (Swedish Agency for Marine and Water Management) with the purpose to jointly find ways to make progress on the use of genetic data in management.

BONUS BAMBI target species. The seaweeds (Fucus vesiculosus and F. radicans) are grazed upon by the isopod (Idotea balthica), that is eaten by the fish (Gasterosteus aculeatus), the fish using the seaweed to its nests. This model ecosystem constitutes a dominant part of coastal hard bottom ecosystems of the Baltic Sea. Photos:BONUSBAMBI.