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NAME: RACHNA MANTRY
COURSE: BBA (H)
SUPERVISOR: MS. S. LAKSHMY
TITLE: ANALYSIS OF THE RATE OF ROAD ACCIDENTS TAKING
PLACE IN INDIA.
Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the Graduate Degree in
BACHELOR OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION (HONOURS) Of Jadavpur University At J.D. Birla Institute (Department of management) Kolkata
DECLARATIONS
I declare the following:
The word count of the dissertation is 9061 words
The material contained in this dissertation is the end result of my own work. Due acknowledgement has been given in the bibliography and references to all sources be they printed, electronic or personal.
I am aware that my dissertation may be submitted to a plagiarism detection service where it will be stored in a database and compared against work submitted from this institute or from any other institutions.
In the event that there is a high degree of similarity in content detected, further investigations may lead to disciplinary actions including the cancellation of my degree according to Jadavpur University rules and regulations.
I declare that ethical issues have been considered, evaluated and appropriately addressed in this research.
I agree to an entire electronic copy or sections of the dissertation to being placed on the e-learning portal, if deemed appropriate, to allow future students the opportunity to see examples of past dissertations and to be able to print and download copies if they so desire.
SIGNED:DATE:
NAME: ROLL NO / BATCH:SUPERVISOR:
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
I would like to thank my mentor, Ms.S.Lakshmy, with heartiest respect and gratitude, for guiding me through my project and assisting me throughout the data analysis of the project.
I express my thanks to the Director of J.D. Birla institute, Dr. Asit Dutta, for giving me the opportunity to gather such wonderful learning experience.
I am also obliged to my college librarians Mr. Santanu Mondal, Mr. Masiur Rehman and Mr. Swapan Kr. Ber who have assisted me in finding various references for data collection.
I also thank my friends at college for their assistance, on and off campus.
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Abstract
This project attempts to focus on the magnitude of the Road Accidents in India. The purpose
of this publication is to present an in depth analysis and overview of the road accidents in
India. The data and analysis on road accidents contained in this volume will help create
awareness and assist in informed decision making in the area of road safety. Success of
road safety initiatives requires active cooperation and participation of all stakeholders and
these initiatives should be taken so as to make the roads of India safe for all its inhabitants.
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INDEX
TABLE OF CONTENTS Pg No.
1. INTRODUCTION 07-09
a. Role of Roads
7
b. Road Network of India 7-
9
2. LITERATURE REVIEW 10-19
a. History of roads
10
b. Growth of Road Sector 10-
11
c. Trend in Road Traffic 11-
12
d. Classification of Roads 12-
15
e. Allocation to Roads over five year plans
15
f. Main issues
16
g. Institutional initiative 16-
17
h. Road Accidents
17
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i. Cost of Road Accidents 17-
18
j. Trends in Accident injuries, fatalities,
Motor vehicles and road network 18
k. Long term trends 18-
19
3. HYPOTHESIS 20
4. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 21-23
a. Introduction 21-
22
b. Use of Statistical Tools 22-
23
5. DATA ANALYSIS 24-27
6. RESULTS AND FINDINGSa. Results 28
b. Road Safety Measures 28-30
c. Recommendation 30-31
7. CONCLUSION 32 a. Future Scope 32
b. Limitations 32
8. ANNEXURE 33-43
9. BIBLIOGRAPHY 44
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1. INTRODUCTION
1(a). ROLE OF ROADS:1.India is a vast country with a land area of 3,287,240 sq Km, a population of 115 crores
living in 638,365 villages and 5169 towns and cities, where the primary mode of physical
connectivity is road transport. Road infrastructure anchors the economy and the society
by allowing human movement as well as production and exchange of goods and services.
The role and importance of infrastructure for an economy is like that of the foundation to
a building and the level of infrastructure availability is one of the key indices of the level
of economic development and quality of life of the citizens of a country. Infrastructure in
general and road infrastructure in particular plays a pivotal role in promoting economic
growth and making this growth more inclusive by sharing the benefits of growth with
poorer groups and communities, particularly in remote and isolated areas, by facilitating
their access to basic services and by helping in increasing their income generating
capacity.
1(b). ROAD NETWORK IN INDIA:
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2.India has a road network of over 3.314 million kilometres (2.059 million miles) of
roadway, making it the third largest road network in the world. At 0.66 km of highway
per square kilometer of land the density of India’s highway network is higher than that of
the United States (0.65) and far higher than that of China's (0.16) or Brazil's (0.20). As of
2002, only 47.3% of the network consisted of paved roads.Historically, the funds set
aside for the maintenance and expansion of the road network have been insufficient, but
major efforts are currently underway to modernize the country's road infrastructure. India
plans to spend approximately US$70 Billion over the next three years.
Some of the major projects that are being implemented include the National Highways
Development Project and the Mumbai-Pune Expressway. According to recent estimates
by Goldman Sachs, India will need to spend US$1.7 trillion on infrastructure projects
over the next decade to boost economic growth. In an effort to accomplish this, the
government of India is attempting to promote foreign investment in road projects by
offering financial incentives such as toll rights to developers. However, due to rising
prices of petroleum, being a Non-renewable resource, foreign investors have urged the
government to focus instead on improving public transport like the Indian Railways and
rapid transit systems.
3.At the time of independence, the national government was unanimous in accepting that a
much wider base of infrastructure was necessary for economic development of this
country. The successive plans were formulated on such lines that the infrastructural
sectors claimed the lion’s share of the plan outlays and actual expenditures. If the
first ten five-year plans and the annual plans are considered together, the Total
Allocated Spending has been Rs. 33954 Billion, of which the infrastructural sectors
accounted for Rs. 22452 Billion, i.e. more than 66% of the total allocation. Since 1991-
92, a number of wide-ranging reforms have been carried out in the infrastructure sector
covering roads and highways development, civil aviation, telecommunications. It has been
because of such paramount importance being attached to the development of the
infrastructure in our economic planning that long strides have been made in the
physical availability of such facilities in India.
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4. Expansion in road network, motorization and urbanization in the country has been
accompanied by a rise in road accidents leading to road traffic injuries (RTIs) and
fatalities as a major public health concern. Today road traffic injuries are one of the
leading causes of deaths, disabilities and hospitalizations with severe socioeconomic
costs across the world. Studies of the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP)
per capita, growth of motor vehicles and road fatalities, have shown that fatality rates
increase as GDP increases at relatively low levels of GDP per capita, but then start to
decline with continued GDP growth.
The peak position on this inverted U-shaped curve is not, however, immutable. The
challenge now is to bring about a shift in the relationship between economic growth and
road fatalities, so that developing countries benefit from a much earlier improvement than
traditional models predict based on the experience of high-income countries.
Occurrence of accident is an outcome of interplay of a number of factors, which among
others include length of road network, vehicle population, human population and
Adherence/Enforcement of road safety regulations etc. Higher exposure to road accident
risk may be mitigated by behavioral standards (adherence to road safety regulations) and
policy intervention (enforcement).
The report has been chronologically done in the following manner:
Sec 1: Introduction
Sec 2: Literature Review
Sec 3: Hypothesis
Sec 4: Research Methodology
Sec 5: Data Analysis
Sec 6: Results and Findings
Sec 7: Conclusion
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2. LITERATURE REVIEW
2(a).HISTORY:2.The first evidence of road development in the Indian subcontinent can be traced back to
approximately 4000 BC from the ancient cities of Harrapa and Mohenjodaro of the Indus
Valley Civilization. Around the 1st Century AD, the ancient Silk Road came into being,
which passed through northern India and China. Ruling emperors and monarchs of
ancient India constructed numerous brick roads in the cities. One of the most famous
highways of medieval India is the Grand Trunk Road. The Grand Trunk Road began in
Sonargaon near Dhaka in Bangladesh and ended at Peshawar in modern-day Pakistan. In
India, it linked several important cities from Kolkata in the east to Amritsar in the west,
while passing through the cities of Patna, Varanasi, Kanpur, Agra, Delhi, Panipat, Pipli,
Ambala, Rajpura, Ludhiana, and Jalandhar. During the colonial period in the 19th
century, the British upgraded the existing highway network and built roads in many
treacherous areas such as the Western Ghats.
2(b). GROWTH OF ROAD SECTOR:5.As per report Infrastructure in India by Elizabeth Montgomery of
PricewaterhouseCoopers, the Indian economy is booming, with rates of Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) growth exceeding 8% every year since 2003/04. This ongoing
growth is due to rapidly developing services and manufacturing sectors, increasing
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consumer demand (largely driven by increased spending by India’s middle class) and
government commitments to rejuvenate the agricultural sector and improve the economic
conditions of India’s rural population. In the fiscal year ending March 2008, India’s GDP
grew by more than 9%. This robust rate of expansion was initially forecast to continue in
the 2008-2009 fiscal year, but the onset of global recession and its cascading effect
slowed down the growth rate to 6.5% to 7%, but that appears to be a short-run
phenomenon. Even in the face of such a recession, the Government has singled out
infrastructure investment as particularly vital to facilitate a turnaround and accelerate the
growth process. Indeed, even with a somewhat slower rate of growth, the Indian economy
is still expanding significantly, and substantial investment in the infrastructure sector
continues to hold the key to sustaining India’s economic progress. The country’s capacity
to absorb and benefit from new technology and industries depends on the availability,
quality and efficiency of basic forms of infrastructure.
6.The Tenth Five Year Plan brings out the importance of roads as follows, “Roads are the
key to the development of an economy. A good road network constitutes the basic
infrastructure that propels the development process through connectivity and opening up
the backward regions to trade and investment. Roads also play a key role in inter-modal
transport development, establishing links with airports, railway stations and ports. In
addition, they have an important role in promoting national integration, which is
particularly important in a large country like India”.
2(c). TREND IN ROAD TRAFFIC:7.Freight transport by road has risen from 6 billion tonne km (BTK) in 1951 to 400 BTK
in 1995 and passenger traffic has risen from 23 billion-passenger km (BPK) to 1,500
BPK during the same period. Freight and passenger traffic are expected to increase to 800
BTK and 3,000 BPK respectively by the year 2001. The annual growth of road traffic is
expected to be 9 to 10%. Current boom in the automobile sector may even increase the
future growth rate of road traffic. While the traffic has been growing at a fast pace, it has
not been possible to provide matching investment in the road sector, due to the competing
demands from other sectors, especially the social sectors, and this has led to a large
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number of deficiencies in the network. Many sections of the highways are in need of
capacity augmentation, pavement strengthening, rehabilitation of bridges, improvement
of riding quality, provision of traffic safety measures, etc. There are congested road
sections passing through towns where bypasses are required. Many old bridges are in
need of rehabilitation/replacement along with capacity augmentation. NHs are the main
arterial roads which run through the length and breadth of the country connecting ports,
state capitals, industrial and tourist centers and neighbouring countries.
NHs constitute less than 2% of the total road network, but carry nearly 40% of the total
road traffic.
4.In economic terms, the cost of road crash injuries is estimated at roughly 1 percent of
gross national product (GNP) in low-income countries, 1.5 percent in middle-income
countries and 2 percent in high-income countries. The direct economic costs of global
road crashes have been estimated at US $ 518 Billion, with the costs in low income
countries estimated at US $ 65 Billion (World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention,
page 5, WHO, 2004). These estimates take account only of the direct economic costs –
mainly lost productivity – rather than the full social costs often recognized by
industrialized countries. For India the socio-economic cost of road accidents in 1999-
2000 was estimated at 3 % of GDP (Tenth Five Year Plan).
Incidentally, India holds the dubious distinction of registering the highest number of road
accidents in the world. According to the experts at the National Transportation Planning
and Research Centre (NTPRC) the number of road accidents in India is three times higher
than that prevailing in developed countries. The number of accidents for 1000 vehicles in
India is as high as 35 while the figure ranges from 4 to 10 in developed countries.
2(d). CLASSIFICATION OF ROADS:2.India has a large road network of over 3.314 million kilometers of roadways, making it
the second largest road network in the world. For the purpose of management and
administration, roads in India are divided into the following five categories:
National Highways (NH) : These are main highways running through the length and
breadth of the country connecting major ports, state capitals, large industrial and
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tourist centres, etc. National Highways in India are designated as NH followed by the
highway number. The National Highway system is the primary road grid and is the
direct responsibility of the Central Government. The National Highways are intended
to facilitate medium and long distance inter-city passenger and freight traffic across
the country.
The traffic on National Highways has been growing due to the recent economic growth
in India and the Government of India is taking steps to improve management techniques
to provide hindrance-free traffic movement by way of widening roads, grade separation,
construction of bypasses, bridges, rail-road crossings, and utilizing the latest
technologies.
8.Even though the National Highways represent only 2% of the total network length,
they handle about 40% of the total road traffic. As per the Urban Land Institute's
Infrastructure 2008: A competitive advantage report, "more than 90% of India's
40,625 miles (65,000 km) of national highways are single or two-lane roads.
The National Highways are further classified based on the width of carriageway of
the Highway. Generally, in case of a single lane, the lane width is of 3.75 meters,
while in case of multi-lane National Highways, each of the lanes have a width of 3.5
meters. As of February 2008, out of the total length, 14% have four or more lanes and
about 59% have 2-lanes or are double-laned, while the rest (27%) of the National
Highway network has single or intermediate lane.
Expressways : The Expressways of India make up approximately 200 km of the Indian
National Highway System. Usually no two-wheelers, three-wheelers or tractor
vehicles are allowed on these roads. Speed of upto 120 km/h can be maintained on
these roads due to separate merging lanes and the lack of speed breakersso as to
ensure smooth travel. Most of the existing expressways in India are toll roads.
However, the National Highway System also consists of approximately 10,000 km of
four-laned highways that do not feature full control of access. Currently, a massive
project is underway to expand the highway network and the Government of India
plans to add an additional 15600 km of expressways to the network by the year 2022.
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State Highways (SH): State Highways refers to the numbered highways which are
laid and maintained by the State Government. The are not related to National
Highways and are not involved with the NHAI or the Central Government in any
way. The State Highways usually are roads which link important cities, towns, district
headquarters within the state and connecting them with National Highways or
Highways of the neighbouring states. These highways provide connections to
industries / places from key areas in the state making them more accessible. The State
Highways carry the traffic along major centers within the State.
District Roads : District roads are classified into two categories- major district roads
and other district roads. Major District Roads provide the secondary function of
linkage between main roads and rural roads.
Rural Roads : The last link in the chain is rural roads. The rural roads form a
substantial portion of the vast Indian road network. Rural connectivity is a key
component of rural development and contributes significantly to generating higher
agricultural incomes and productive employment opportunities besides promoting
access to economic and social services. Studies show that rural roads have a
significant impact on poverty reduction. Since the agricultural produce and the
finished products of small-scale industries in rural areas are to be moved from the
producing centres to the marketing centres, road connectivity is essential for rural
population.
9.For the development of rural roads, Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY)
(or "Prime Minister Rural Roads Scheme"), was launched in December 2000 by the
Government of India to provide connectivity to unconnected rural habitations as part
of a poverty eradication measure. For its implementation, the Government of India is
setting uniform technical and management standards and facilitating policy
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development and planning at State level in order to ensure sustainable management of
the rural roads network. The scheme is to be implemented in phases wherein the
number of roads under each phase would be governed by the population of
habitations (hamlets). 6.For example, the initial phase would attempt to cover all
inhabitations with a population of 1000. Following the 73rd Constitution Amendment
Act, rural roads have been placed in the Eleventh Schedule and their upkeep has
become the responsibility of the Panchayati Raj institutions (PRIs).
It is expected that about 3,75,000 km of new road construction and 3,72,000 km of
upgradation/renewal would be undertaken as part of the scheme. The construction
cost is fully borne by the Government of India as a centrally sponsored scheme, while
the State Governments are responsible for providing maintenance funds. As of May
24, 2007, more than 122,000 km of roads have been completed under PMGSY and
work is in progress in projects covering another 1,00,000 km.
2(e).ALLOCATION TO ROADS OVER THE FIVE YEAR PLANS:
10. The allocation to road development over the various five-year plans is as follows:
First five-year Plan : Rs. 146 crores Second Five Year Plan : Rs. 262 crores Third Five Year Plan : Rs. 871 crores Fourth Five Year Plan : Rs. 418 crores Fifth Five Year Plan : Rs. 445 crores Sixth Five Year Plan : Rs. 3438 crores Seventh Five Year Plan : Rs. 5200 crores Eighth Five Year Plan : Rs. 13210 crores Ninth Five Year Plan : Rs. 48570 crores Tenth Five Year Plan : Rs. 59490 crores Eleventh Five Year Plan : Rs. 72530 crores
2(f).MAIN ISSUES:
2.The main roads in India are under huge pressure and in great need of modernization in
order to handle the increased requirements of the Indian economy. In addition to
maintenance, the expansion of the network and widening of existing roads is becoming
increasingly important. This would then enable the roads to handle increased traffic, and
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also allow for a corresponding increase in the average movement speed on India's roads.
Presently, lane capacity is low and only about 16% of India's roads are four lanes or
above. In addition, approximately a quarter of all India's highways are congested, in some
cases reducing truck and bus speeds to 30-40 km/h (19-25 mph).12.Road maintenance
remains under-funded, and some 40 percent of villages in India lack access to all-weather
roads.
Due to decades of bureaucratic and procedural difficulties, the road network has suffered
long delays. Recently however, political leaders in India are making efforts to prioritize
the modernization and expansion of the road network. However, there are still other
environmental, logistical, and local issues contributing to delay in development of the
road infrastructure. For instance, although the government itself owns a wide corridor
around the center of roads called the Right of Way (ROW), over many years, poor and
landless people have built houses and other property along the roadside. Farmers whose
fields adjoined the road had their crops encroach up to the side of the road. Further, other
resources are located along roadsides, whether they be trees, pathways to water resources,
streams that were used for their water, etc. Trucking goods from Gurgaon to the port in
Mumbai can take up to 10 days. 13.Taxes and bribes are common between state borders;
Transparency International estimates that truckers pay annually US$5 billion in bribes. 14.Although India has only 1% of the world's vehicles, India has 8% of the world's vehicle
fatalities or 95,000 people, second only to China.
11.India's cities are extremely congested — the average bus speed is 6–10 km/h in many
large cities. Because of the congestion in Indian roads the fuel efficiency of the vehicles
is also very low. This increases the overall fuel consumption of the country besides
resulting in heavy pollution since the engines run very inefficiently at such low speeds.
15.However, despite their importance to the national economy, the road network in India is
grossly inadequate in various respects. The existing network is inadequate and is unable
to handle high traffic density at many places and has poor riding quality. The main reason
for these shortcomings is the inadequacy of funds for maintenance and improving the
quality of the road network. Efforts are now underway to address these issues and
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improvement in the road network has been accorded a very high priority in development
planning in the country. To bridge the resource gap and to instill competitive efficiency,
efforts are being made to associate the private sector with road projects. However, the
initial response has not been very encouraging and it is felt that more innovative methods
are needed to ensure greater participation of the private sector. Simultaneously, it is also
necessary to prioritise road projects according to resource availability so that resources
are not spread thinly among large number of projects leading to unwarranted delays.
2(g).INSTITUTIONALINITIATIVES:16.Steps have been taken for restructuring and strengthening of National Highways
Authority of India (NHAI), which is the implementing agency for the National Highways
programme. Institutional mechanisms have been established to address bottlenecks
arising from delays in environmental clearance, land acquisition etc. A special focus is
being provided for traffic management and safety related issues through the proposed
Directorate of Safety and Traffic Management. It is expected that the sum total of these
initiatives should be able to deliver an efficient and safe highway network across the
country.
In order to specify the policy and regulatory framework on a fair and transparent basis, a
Model Concession Agreement(MCA) for PPPs in national highways has been mandated.
It is expected that this common framework, based on international best practices, will
significantly increase the pace of project award as well as ensure an optimal balance of
risk and reward among all project participants.
2(h).ROAD ACCIDENTS :
4.As per Ministry of Road Transport And Highways Government Of India,
studies of the relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, growth of
motor vehicles and road fatalities, have shown that fatality rates increase as GDP
increases at relatively low levels of GDP per capita, but then start to decline with
continued GDP growth. The peak position on this inverted U-shaped curve is not,
however, immutable. The challenge now is to bring about a shift in the relationship
17
between economic growth and road fatalities, so that developing countries benefit from a
much earlier improvement than traditional models predict based on the experience of
high-income countries.
2(i).COST OF ROAD ACCIDENTS: 4.Accidents carry high economic and social costs, which are not easy to ascertain. The
cost of road related injuries and accidents can be assessed in terms of (a) medical costs
(b) other costs related to administrative, legal and police expenditure (c) collateral
damage in terms of damage to property and motor vehicle and (d) loss due to income
foregone arising out of absence from work or impairment/disability or untimely death.
Besides accident survivors often live poor quality of life and have to live with pain and
suffering which are difficult to estimate. 17.In developing countries with very little asset
ownership and lack of credible social safety net, accidents adversely impact the welfare
of dependents of accident victims. Hence it is imperative to assess the magnitude and
dimensions of road accidents so as to assist in formulating road safety policies.18.In economic terms, the cost of road crash injuries is estimated at roughly 1 percent of
gross national product (GNP) in low-income countries, 1.5 percent in middle-income
countries and 2 percent in high-income countries. The direct economic costs of global
road crashes have been estimated at US $ 518 Billion, with the costs in low income
countries estimated at US $ 65Billion (World Report on Road Traffic Injury Prevention,
page 5, WHO, 2004). These estimates take account only of the direct economic costs –
mainly lost productivity – rather than the full social costs often recognized by
industrialized countries. For India the socio-economic cost of road accidents in 1999-
2000 was estimated at 3 % of GDP.
2(j).TRENDS IN ACCIDENTS, FATALITIES, INJURIES, MOTOR VEHICLES AND ROAD NETWORKS:
4.Occurrence of accident is an outcome of interplay of a number of factors, which among
others include length of road network, vehicle population, human population and
18
adherence/enforcement of road safety regulations etc. Higher exposure to road accident
risk may be mitigated by behavioral standards (adherence to road safety regulations) and
policy intervention (enforcement).
2(k).LONG TERM TRENDS:4.The Compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in number of accidents, injuries, fatalities
and motor vehicles (registered) have moderated during 1990s (1990-2000) after a spurt
during the 1980s (1980 to 1990) (Table 1). Moderation in the growth of accidents,
fatalities and injuries during 1990s has taken place in the backdrop of lower growth in the
number of registered vehicles and step up in the growth of road network. However, post-
2000 (up to 2009) growth rate of fatalities has accelerated vis-à-vis the preceding decade
(1990-2000).
3. HYPOTHESIS
H0: b = 0 (no influence of external variables on the accident severity)
H1: b ≠0(influence of external variables on the accident severity)
The external variables taken into consideration are: total number of accidents, number of persons killed, number of persons injured and road length.
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4. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
4.(a). INTRODUCTION TO RESEARCH METHODOLOGY:
19.Research Methodology is a way to systematically solve the research problem. It may be
understood as a science of studying how research is done scientifically. In it we study the
various steps that are generally adopted by a researcher in studying his research problem
along with the logic behind them. It is necessary for the researcher to know not only the
research method/ techniques but also the methodology. Research methodology has many
dimensions and research methods do constitute a part of the research methodology. The
scope of research methodology is wider than that of research methods. Thus, when we
talk of research methodology we not only talk about research methods but also consider
the logic behind the methods we use in the context of our research study and explain why
we are using a particular method or technique and why we are not using others so that
research results are capable of being evaluated either by the researcher himself or by
others.20.There are basically two types of research:
20
QUANTITATIVE RESEARCH : It is based on the measurement of quantity
or amount. It is applicable to phenomena that can be expressed in terms of
quantity. In quantitative research your aim is to determine the relationship
between one thing (an independent variable) and another (a dependent or
outcome variable) in a population. Quantitative research designs are either
descriptive (subjects usually measured once) or experimental (subjects measured
before and after a treatment). A descriptive study establishes only associations
between variables. An experiment establishes causality.
QUALITATIVE RESEARCH : Qualitative research seeks out the
‘why’, not the ‘how’ of its topic through the analysis of unstructured information
– things like interview transcripts, open ended survey responses, emails, notes,
feedback forms, photos and videos. It doesn’t just rely on statistics or numbers,
which are the domain of quantitative researchers. Qualitative research is used to
gain insight into people's attitudes, behaviours, value systems, concerns,
motivations, aspirations, culture or lifestyles. It’s used to inform business
decisions, policy formation, communication and research. Focus groups, in-depth
interviews, content analysis, ethnography, evaluation and semiotics are among the
many formal approaches that are used, but qualitative research also involves the
analysis of any unstructured material, including customer feedback forms, reports
or media clips.
This dissertation seeks to research and examine the importance of the development of
roads in relation to the growth and development of the Indian economy. The problems
relating to the development of roads in India and a detailed analysis of the Road
Accidents taking place in India have also been examined. This research has been
undertaken with the usage of secondary data on which these statistical tools are used
pertain to:
21
CORRELATION : Correlation is a statistical measurement of the
relationship between two variables. Possible correlations range from +1 to –1. A
zero correlation indicates that there is no relationship between the variables. A
correlation of –1 indicates a perfect negative correlation, meaning that as one
variable goes up, the other goes down. A correlation of +1 indicates a perfect
positive correlation, meaning that both variables move in the same direction
together.
REGRESSION : regression is the determination of a statistical relationship
between two or more variables. In simple regression, we have only 2 variables,
one variable (defined as independent) is the cause of the behaviour of another one
(defined as dependent variable). Regression can only interpret what exists
physically, that is, there must be a physical way in which independent variable X
can effect dependent variable Y.. the basic relationship between X and Y is given
by:
Y= a + bX.
HYPOTHESIS:
19. 20.A hypothesis is like a statement, in an essay it is usually a statement you write at the
beginning and the whole essay is about you proving that statement , with evidence and
research etc. there are basically two types of hypothesis. They are:
NULL HYPOTHESIS:
A type of hypothesis used in statistics that proposes that no statistical significance exists
in a set of given observations. The null hypothesis attempts to show that no variation
exists between variables, or that a single variable is no different than zero. It is presumed
to be true until statistical evidence nullifies it for an alternative hypothesis. The symbol
used for null hypothesis is H0.
ALTERNATE HYPOTHESIS
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An alternative hypothesis is one that specifies that the null hypothesis is not true. The
alternative hypothesis is false when the null hypothesis is true, and true when the null
hypothesis is false.
The symbol H 1 is used for the alternate hypothesis.
DIAGRAMATIC REPRESENTATION :
20.Various graphs such as bar graphs, column graphs, trend lines, and pie charts
have been used to provide a systematic pictorial representation of the data and
statistics of the range of road accidents taking place and the causes of these
accidents.This research has been undertaken with the usage of secondary data.
5. DATA ANALYSIS
TABLE 1:
From the quantitative data in the table we can see that the Compound annual Growth
Rate (CAGR) in number of accidents, injuries, fatalities and motor vehicles (registered)
have moderated during years 1990-2000 after a spurt during 1980s ie,1980-1990 (Table
1). Moderation in growth of accidents, fatalities and injuries during 1990s has taken place
in the backdrop of lower growth in the number of registered vehicles and setup in the
growth of road networks. However, post year 2000 growth rate of fatalities have
accelerated vis-à-vis the preceding decade (1990-2000).
We see between years 1970-2009, the number of accidents have increased by 4.3 times
with more than 7 fold increase in injuries and about 8.7 times increase in fatalities in the
backdrop of about 64 fold increase in road network.
TABLE 2, CHART 1 (A) and (B) :
During calendar year 2009, number of accidents reported at 4,86,384 was higher by
0.35% compared with 4,84,704 accidents reported in the year 2008.
In comparison, the number of persons killed as a result of road accidents at 1,25,660 was
higher by 4.8% in 2009 compared with the preceding year. However, the number of
persons injured declined to 5,15,458 (a fall of 1.5%).
23
The total number of road accidents, injuries and deaths increased at CAGR of 2.5%,2.9%
and 5.3% respectively between the years 2000-2009 as seen in Table 1.
Table 2 also indicates that the severity of road accidents measured in terms of persons
killed per 100 accidents, had also increased from 19.9 in 2001 to 25.8 in 2009.
The total length of roads pertaining to the same year has also been represented here.
Chart 1(A) shows the number of road accidents and length of roads in the form of a graph
and Chart 1(B) indicates the number of accidents taking place and people injured and
killed in the accidents.
We find the association between the road length and accident severity or number of road
accidents and statistical tools have been used for the same.
Correlation has been used to examine the degree of association between the accident
severity and the length of roads. The degree of association is positive with the value
of 0.940569 which says that as the length of road increases the accident severity also
increases simultaneously .
Correlation has also been done to examine the association between total number of
accidents and the length of roads and the value is 0.94136, thus again a positive
association. Thus, greater the length of roads, greater prone it is being to total road
accidents.
Correlation has also been done to examine the association between the persons killed, and
persons injured on the road length, which also has a positive association and the value is
0.952817 and 0.947205, therefore, greater the length of roads, more accidents will occur
and therefore, greater number of persons killed and injured.
Regression analysis has been done to find the influence of the independent factors (i.e,
total number of accidents, number of persons killed, number of persons injured and road
length) on the dependent factor (i.e. accident severity).
At 95% confidence level, the following regression equation gives us the influence:
y= 16.59236719 + -4.81223E-05 + 0.000194693 + 5.15365E-06 + 2.1752E-06
With this equation a stated hypothesis has already been tested above.
24
At 95% confidence level, if the P value is less than 0.05, the null hypothesis is rejected.
From the multiple regressions, we try to show the influence of number of accidents,
number of persons killed, number of persons injured, road length on the accident severity
in India. From the output, it is seen that the multiple regression square is 0.99979342 and
the p value of :
Total number of accidents is 0.00012082419, number of persons killed is 0.00012082419 ,
number of persons injured is 0.02094701826, and road length is 0.02304089497, all are less
than 0.05. Since, the p value of all the variables is less than 0.05, therefore, the null
hypothesis is rejected and alternate hypothesis is accepted.
TABLE 3:
The quantitative data provided here shows the severity of road accidents in India State-
wise. It shows the Number of persons killed (per 100) in accidents in 28 states as well as
7 Union Territories of India. The data pertains to the years 2006-2009. We see that in the
year 2006, states like Mizoram and Uttarakhand rank the highest in severity of accidents
and leading to maximum people being killed, the same trend is seen in the year 2007 and
in year 2008 and 2009 we see that Nagaland accounts for the maximum number of
persons being killed in the road accidents.
From the quantitative data provided about the Union territories, we see that accident
severity leading to death of human lives is maximum in Dadra and Nagar Haveli in the
year 2009. We see that the national average in the number of persons killed is the
maximum in the Year 2009 with 25.8.
TABLE 4(a) and 4(b) ,TABLE 5, CHART 2:
The data here indicates the road accidents as per road classification. Table 4(a) shows the
percentage share in road accidents and number of persons killed and injured on National
Highways and Table 4(b) shows the percentage share in road accidents road accidents,
number of people killed and injured on State highways.
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From the data given here, National Highways accounted for 29.3% in total road accidents
and 36% in total number of persons killed in 2009. Similarly, State Highways accounted
for 23.8% of total accidents and a share of 27.1% in the total number of persons killed in
road accidents in 2009. In Table 5, the accidents, people killed and injured are shown as
on National, State Highways and other roads pertaining to the year 2009. Highways
permit greater speed resulting in relatively greater number of road accidents and
fatalities. State wise breakup of accidents, injuries and deaths due to road accidents on
stretches of National and State Highways are given in this table. From the data we
analyse that the percentage share in accidents on national highways is more than that in
State Highways.
CHART 3:
The data represents the percentage share of persons killed in road accidents by type of
road user category in the year 2009, occupants of two wheelers, passenger cars and taxis,
Trucks and buses account for 21%, 15%, 12% and 10% of total road fatalities. Bicycle
Riders (4%) and pedestrians (13%) are the most unprotected road users and have to share
the scarce road space with motorized vehicles of different engine power and speed
resulting in serious conflicts with traffic flows.
CHART 4 :
This represents the quantitative data in the form of pie diagram showing the age profile of
accident victims. As per the detailed age profile of accident victims other than the drivers
available for the year 2009, it is observed that the age group of (25-65) years account for
the largest share of 52% of total road accidents casualities followed by the age group of
(15-25) years with a share of about 30%. Hence, about half of the road traffic casualities
are in the age group of 25-65 years.
CHART 5 :
This includes the quantitative data about the causes of road accidents in India in the
26
year 2009. According to this data, 79% represents the driver’s fault and the rest
comprises of defect in road condition, fault of pedestrian, fault of cyclist, defect in
condition of motor vehicle, weather conditions and other causes. The cause leading to
minimum accidents is the weather conditions constituting around 1%.
TABLE 6, CHART 6 :
The quantitative data in the given table and chart relates to the funds allocated and the
funds incurred on Road Safety Activities by Government pertaining to the years
2004-2010. the discrepancy or the gap between allocation and spending is shown in the
diagram. The maximum gap between the amount allocated and spent exist in the year
2009-2010.
6.RESULTS AND FINDINGS
6(a). RESULTS :
It is concluded from the correlation done that, as the length of roads increases the number
of accidents also increases as there is a positive association between the two, and with
this increase in total number of accidents, the number of persons killed and the number of
persons injured also increases.
Thus, as the road length increases, the severity of road accidents also increases causing an
increase in large number of persons being killed and injured.
From the multiple regressions, we try to show the influence of number of accidents,
number of persons killed, number of persons injured and road length on the accident
severity in India. From the output, it is seen that the total number of persons injured is the
most significant factor on which the accident severity and the road length depends.
6 (B).ROAD SAFETY:4.Thus, road safety becomes very essential to prevent these road accidents. It has been
also observed from the data that pertains to the funds allocated and the funds spent on
27
road safety activities that there is a gap which needs to be filled. Therefore, Road Safety
Measures become very essential to reduce or lessen the accidents occurring on road.
Road safety is both a health and development issue of concern considering its magnitude
and gravity and the consequent negative impacts on the economy, public health and the
general welfare of the people, particularly those with low incomes. Although we have
undertaken initiatives and are implementing various road safety improvement
programmes, the overall situation as revealed by data is far from satisfactory.
4.Road accidents are non random events occurring due to a complex mix of number of
factors which amongst others include:
(a) type of road users and colliding vehicles.
(b) environmental/road related factors: These include visibility, road design and
geometry, access control, intersections (areas of traffic conflict) provision of segregation
of NMT and heavy vehicle traffic.
(c) vehicle related factors – visibility of vehicles, use of protective devices (helmets and
seat belts) by vehicle occupants; problems with head and tail lights, mechanical failure
etc.
(d) nature of traffic management : use of automatic signals, traffic calming devices
(e) emergency care for accident victims.
The main thrust of accident prevention and control across the world has been on 4 E’s,
viz. (i) Education, (ii) Enforcement, (iii) Engineering and (iv) Environment and
Emergency care of road accident victims.
Educational approach: It relies on dissemination of road safety awareness and
regulation through media, classrooms and non-governmental organizations
(NGOs).
Enforcement Approach: Its prime emphasis is on restraining road users from
undertaking behaviour which expose road users and others to risk of accidents and
injuries.
28
Environmental & Engineering Approach: This covers broad range of
interventions to make road user safe through better road environment and safer
vehicles. Safer vehicles by improving crash worthiness and safety of occupants –
safety belts, airbags, laminated windshields, improving braking conditions,
installing suitable lights to reduce glare; better roads through better road design,
geometry and markings, traffic calming techniques, identification of accident
black spots and their treatment, good visibility of roads with lighting, segregation
of traffic into slow and fast moving categories.
Emergency accident care: This covers organization, delivery of emergency
accident care and logistic support for effective and coordinated delivery of health
care to accident victims. WHO guidelines for “essential trauma care” recommend
establishing achievable and affordable standards for injury care. Road safety is
essentially a multi-sectoral activity. It requires a systems approach with
coordinated efforts of health, law, transport, police, insurance agencies and
NGOs.
Road Safety Public Education:21.Considering the need to address the road safety issues, part of the World Bank loan
under GTRIP was utilized to design and implement an effective public communication
strategy for enhancing road safety awareness among drivers and other road users by
undertaking consulting service for road safety public education. 22.This service was
designed to reduce the risk of accidents through raising the awareness among local
inhabitants and road users of National Highways of the Golden Quadrilateral (GQ) of
about 5,864 km that links the main metropolitan centres of Delhi, Kolkata, Chennai and
Mumbai. 4.The objectives of service were:
(i) Make community residents aware that road safety is a major community concern;
(ii) Encourage community residents to identify the specific road safety problems faced by
the community as well as remedial measures;
(iii) Strengthen local Non Government Organizations (NGOs) and Community Based
Organizations (CBOs) and their linkages to external institutions with a role in road
safety;
29
(iv) Educate community residents and road users in the safe use of the road and actions
to be taken in the event of an accident.
Therefore, we see that various initiatives are to be taken by Government as well as we
people to ensure that roads are made very safe and accidents occurring are to be
eliminated completely.
6 (c). RECOMMENDATION:
Through this project, on the basis of various data, it has been concluded that the
magnitude of road accidents and fatalities in India is alarming. This is evident
from the fact that every hour there are about 56 accidents (about one accident every
minute). Similarly, every hour more than 14 deaths occur due to road accidents i.e. one
death in every 4 minutes. Therefore, the severity of road accidents, measured in terms of
persons killed per 100 accidents, had also increased from 19.9 in 2001 to 25.8 in 2009
(TABLE 2). All this require Government to take some initiatives to curb these Road
Accidents, Government needs to allocate greater amount of funds on Road Safety
Activities and ensure that the fund is spent and utilized for this primary purpose
optimally.
4.The National Road Safety Policy outlines the policy initiatives to be framed / taken by
the Government at all levels to improve the road safety activities in the country. Broadly,
it aims at:-
• To promote awareness about road safety issues.
• To establish a road safety information database.
• To ensure safer road infrastructure by way of designing safer roads, encouraging
application of Intelligent Transport System etc.
• To ensure fitment of safety features in the vehicles at the stage of designing,
manufacture,
usage, operation and maintenance.
• To strengthen the system of driver licensing and training to improve the competence of
drivers.
• To take measures to ensure safety of vulnerable road users.
30
• To take appropriate measures for enforcement of safety laws.
• To ensure emergency medical attention for road accident victims.
• To encourage human resource development and R&D for road safety.
To strengthen the enabling legal, institutional and financial environment for promoting
road safety culture in the country.
Thus, if these initiatives are well executed, our country would become less prone to Road
Accidents and there would be no harm to the inhibitants.
7. CONCLUSION
7(A). Future scope:
The project has met the standards required to work for providing service according to
user requirement. If the policies remain same the project can be ported to any institute
with minor changes in the working procedure of the project. The project can be used as
an availability to develop a project for different colleges or institutions with different
logic where in the commonalties in certain areas remain the same at any level. By using
the common features in future development the development time as well as the cost of
development can be decreased considerably.
This dissertation attempts to provide data/information relating to road accidents in terms
of its magnitude, incidence, spatial spread, its impact, determinants and policy initiatives
undertaken by the government to prevent and mitigate its impact. Therefore, this project
can be very useful for acquiring knowledge as well as understanding the magnitude of
road accidents and would also instil people to take initiatives to curb the road accidents
and make roads safer for everybody. These initiatives would ultimately result in Road
Development.
7(b ).Limitations:
31
Due to time constraint much of the data could not be collected. Thus, the project
is made with the data that could be accessed.
Only secondary data is used and the no primary data has been accessed to.
Also, the inter state analysis of the accident severity could have been done, but
due to time constraint, it could not be done.
Many of the data represented through various diagrams pertains to year 2009
only. Various data collected could have been collected for longer time period.
The other limitation has to do with the extent to which the findings can be gener-
alized beyond the project studied. The number of cases is too limited for broad
generalizations.
8. Annexure
TABLE:1:- GROWTH IN SELECT ACCIDENT PARAMETERS: Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) in percent
Year No. of Accidents No. of Injuries No. of Fatalities No. of Registered Vehicles Road Length (in kms)
1970-1980 3 4.5 5.2 12.4 2.3
1980-1990 6.3 8.4 8.5 15.5 2.9
1990-2000 3.3 5 3.8 9.8 5.3
2000-2009 2.4 2.9 5.3 10 2.7Source: http://morth.nic.in/writereaddata/sublink2images/RoadAccidents2009750843813.pdf
TABLE 2:- TOTAL NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS, NUMBER OF PERSONS KILLED, INJURED, ACCIDENT SEVERITY ANDTOTAL LENGTH OF ROADS
Year No. of accidents No. of persons : No. of persons: Accident severity Total length total killed injured
2001 405637 80888 405216 19.9 2302515
2002 407497 84674 408711 20.8 2398788
2003 406726 85998 435122 21.1 2328356
2004 429910 92618 464521 21.5 2396650
2005 439255 94968 465282 21.6 2416078
2006 460920 105749 496481 22.9 2446667
2007 479216 114444 513340 23.9 2483344
2008 484704 119860 523193 24.7 2499766.429
2009 486384 125660 515458 25.8 2525693.821
32
Source: http://morth.nic.in/writereaddata/sublink2images/RoadAccidents2009750843813.pdf
SUMMARY OUTPUT (OF REGRESSION):-
Regression StatisticsMultiple R 0.999896705R Square 0.99979342Adjusted R Square 0.99958684Standard Error 0.040179858
Observations 9
ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 4 31.2535423 7.813386 4839.744747 1.28008E-07Residual 4 0.00645768 0.001614
Total 8 31.26
Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0%Intercept 16.5923672 1.23201728 13.46764 0.00017586868 13.1717388 20.0129955 13.17173884number of accidents -0.0000481 0.00000325 -14.816 0.00012082419 -0.0000571 -0.0000391 -0.00005714number of persons killed 0.0001947 0.00000524 37.16076 0.00000313126 0.0001801 0.0002092 0.00018015number of persons injured 0.0000052 0.00000140 3.6939 0.02094701826 0.0000013 0.0000090 0.00000128
road length 0.0000022 0.00000061 3.586146 0.02304089497 0.0000005 0.0000039 0.00000049
Source: Table 2, Author’s Calculation
33
34
2.32.9
-CHART 1(A) Source:Table 2, Author’s Calculation
35
CHART 1(A):NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS AND THE ROAD LENGTHCHART 1(B):NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS AND NUMBER OF PERSONS KILLED AND INJURED
- CHART 1(B) Source: Table 2, Author’s Calculation
TABLE: 3:- SEVERITY OF ROAD ACCIDENTS IN INDIA (STATE-WISE)
SRL.no. States/ UT Persons Killed per 100 AccidentsStates: 2006 2007 2008 2009
1 Andhra Pradesh 29.3 30.6 32.4 33.9
2 Arunachal Pradesh 51.6 39.6 47.9 51.6
3 Assam 39.2 36.4 38.6 40.9
4 Bihar 42.8 44.8 43.8 43.6
5 Chattisgarh 19.9 21.2 22.9 22.2
6 Goa 8.2 8 7.6 7.7
7 Gujarat 19.5 20.6 21 22.5
8 Haryana 38.9 36.8 38.8 38.6
9 Himachal Pradesh 31.8 33.1 30.8 37.4
10 Jammu and Kashmir 17.7 16.3 17.8 18.5
11 Jharkhand 38.4 39.4 39.7 43.4
12 Karnataka 18.4 18.9 19 19.3
13 Kerala 8.7 9.5 10.5 10.8
14 Madhya Pradesh 14 15.9 15.2 15.6
15 Maharashtra 15 15.2 16.4 15.8
16 Manipur 30.5 21.2 26.4 21.6
17 Meghalaya 37.9 42.3 41.8 36.4
18 Mizoram 67.4 64.9 57.3 69.8
19 Nagaland 35.1 37.2 92.1 87.3
20 Orissa 35.6 36.5 37.6 39.7
21 Punjab 61.9 64.6 62.7 65.9
22 Rajasthan 30.6 34.1 35.4 36
36
23 Sikkim 37.2 34.7 40.3 15.4
24 Tamil Nadu 20 20.4 21.2 22.6
25 Tripura 24.7 27.8 28.8 26.5
26 Uttarakhand 66.7 64.9 75.7 60.8
27 Uttar Pradesh 55.7 53 51.3 52
28 West Bengal 40.6 40.7 39.2 43.7
Union Territories:
1 Andaman & Nicobar Islands 14.3 13.3 11.5 12.2
2 Chandigarh 27.5 28.3 30.7 40.3
3 Dadra & Nagar Haveli 43.7 56.9 56 57
4 Daman & Diu 47.4 48.3 58 52.4
5 Delhi 23.3 24.8 24.8 30.9
6 Lakshwadeep 10 0 0 50
7 Pondicherry 13.2 14.6 12.5 12.8
National Average 22.9 23.9 24.7 25.8
37
TABLE 4:(A) & (B) :- NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS AND NUMBER IF PERSONS KILLED AND INJURED AS PER TYPE OF ROADS:
(a) NATIONAL HIGHWAYS
PERCENTAGE SHARE IN:Yea
r Total number of road accidents Number of persons killed Number of persons injured2001 28.6 39.7 29.52002 32.3 39.7 32.42003 31.4 38.6 30.12004 30.3 37.5 30.82005 29.6 37.3 31.32006 30.4 37.7 30.82007 29 35.5 30.22008 28.5 35.6 28.62009 29.3 36 29.6
Source: http://morth.nic.in/writereaddata/sublink2images/RoadAccidents2009750843813.pdf
(b) STATE HIGHWAYS
PERCENTAGE SHARE IN:Year Total number of road accidents Number of persons killed Number of persons injured2001 22.5 27.6 25.62002 23.5 27.2 25.42003 22.4 28.2 26.7
38
2004 23.5 26.9 24.92005 23.6 27.2 25.72006 18.5 26.8 24.92007 24.4 27.7 26.22008 25.6 28.4 27.52009 23.8 27.1 25.5
Source: http://morth.nic.in/writereaddata/sublink2images/RoadAccidents2009750843813.pdf
TABLE 5:- NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS, NUMBER OF PERSONS KILLED, INJURED AS PER
ROAD CLASSIFICATION YEAR 2009
Road classification National Highways State Highways Other roads
no. of accidents 142511 115992 227881no. of persons killed 45222 34093 46345no. of persons injured 152816 131517 231125 Source: http://morth.nic.in/writereaddata/sublink2images/RoadAccidents2009750843813.pdf
-CHART:2Source: Table 5, Author’s Calculation
39
TABLE 5, CHART 2:NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS, NUMBER OF PERSONS AND INJURED AS PER ROAD CLASSIFICATION IN YEAR 2009
13%
21%
16%10%
8%
4%
5%
13%
10%
Pedestrian
Motor cycles,Scooters, Mopeds
Cars, taxis etc
Buses
Other objects
Bicycles
Auto-rikshaws
Trucks
Other motor vehicles
-CHART:3Source: Author’s Calculation
40
CHART 3: PERCENTAGE SHARE OF PERSONS KILED IN ROAD ACCIDENTS BY TYPE OF ROAD USER CATEGORY IN THE YEAR 2009
9%
30%
52%
9%
0-14 15-24 25-65 65 and above
-CHART:4Source: Author’s Calculation
41
CHART 4: PERCENTAGE SHARE IN AGE PROFILE OFACCIDENT VICTIMS IN THE YEAR 2009
79%
2%1%1%
2%1%
14%
Fault of Driver
Fault of Pedestrian
Defect in Road Condition
Fault of Cyclist
Defect in condition ofMotor VehicleWeather Condition
All other causes
-CHART:5Source: Author’s Calculation
42
TABLE:6, CHART:6:- Funds Allocated and Spent on Road Safety Activities (IN RUPEES CRORES)
Year Funds Allocated Funds Spent2004-2005 39.7 34.992005-2006 43.05 29.72006-2007 47 43.252007-2008 52 42.872008-2009 73 54.892009-2010 79 22.392010-2011 81 44.46
Source:http://morth.nic.in/writereaddata/sublink2images/RoadAccidents2009750843813.pdf
43
CHART 5: PERCENTAGE SHARE IN THE CAUSES OF ROAD ACCIDENTS IN THE YEAR 2009
0 20 40 60 80 100
2004-2005
2005-2006
2006-2007
2007-2008
2008-2009
2009-2010
2010-2011
Year
s
Rupees (in crores)
Funds Allocated
Funds Spent
-CHART:6Source: Table 6, Author’s Calculation
9. BIBLIOGRAPHY
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2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_road_network
44
CHART 6: FUNDS ALLOCATED AND SPENT ON ROAD SAFETY ACTIVITIES (IN RUPEES CRORES)
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