project proposal and business plan, 2012-15

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    First published 12 October 2012. This version 17 October 2014.

    Open Briefing

    27 Old Gloucester Street

    Bloomsbury

    London !1" #$%

    &nited 'in(dom

    Tel )44 *0+20 71,# ,-0

    in/oopenbrie/in(.or(

    www.openbriefing.org

    Open Brie/in( Ltd is not-for-profit social enterpriserun nerly entirely by volunteers.

    e(istered in 3n(lnd les s compny limited by (urntee5 "o. 0764,66.

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    Project proposal

    and business plan

    20121

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    Contents

    I. Introduction 1

    Open Briefings niche 2

    Rationale 2

    Model of social change 3

    The demand for Open Briefing 4

    The planned development of Open Briefing 5

    II. Strategic plan 6

    Aims and obectives !"val#ation $

    III. Work plan 8

    %ntelligence #nit &

    Thin' tan' (2

    Cons#ltanc) (3

    Comm#nit) (4

    IV. Organisational plan 16

    *tr#ct#re (!

    The team (!

    V. Financial plan 19

    B#dget (+

    ,#nding 2-

    Appendix I: Revie. of stage ( 2

    Appendix II: %ntelligence des's 28

    Appendix III: Team biographies !!

    Appendix IV: Organisational policies !8

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    Project proposal and business plan, 2012-15 1

    Section IIntroduction

    Open Briefing is the worlds first ci!il societ" intelligence agenc"#

    $e produce actionable and predicti!e intelligence on defence, securit" and foreign polic" %atters#

    $e tell "ou what has happened and what is li&el" to happen ne't# (ost i%portantl", we tell "ou

    wh"#

    $e do this so that)

    better infor%ed citi*ens can %ore effecti!el" engage in peace and securit" debates,

    ci!il societ" organisations can %a&e the right ad!ocac" choices, and

    together we can influence positi!e defence, securit" and foreign polic" decisions b" our

    go!ern%ents#

    Open Briefing is a bold and a%bitious not-for-profit social enterprise# $e are a uni+ue collaboration

    of intelligence, %ilitar", law enforce%ent and go!ern%ent professionals fro% around the world#

    hallenge the status +uo, and ta&e intelligence into "our own hands with Open Briefing#

    Principle activities

    esponding to intelligence requestsfro% non-go!ern%ental organisations#

    Issuing regular intelligence briefings andrisk assessments for the general public.

    .ssessing and disse%inating open source intelligence.

    Publishing polic"-orientated briefing papers andarticles.

    Pro!iding e'pert consultancy servicesto the third sector#

    /e!eloping collaborationswithin and be"ond the traditional peace %o!e%ent#

    he concept of this thin& tan& to collect, collate and interpret infor%ation onpeace and securit" issues for 3Os and interested %e%bers of ci!il societ" is

    %ost ti%el"# Open Briefing potentiall" will be a great force for good in helping to

    %a&e transparent areas of acti!it" that are often shrouded in secrec" and where

    %isinfor%ation is co%%on place# In the long ter% it could ha!e an i%portant

    i%pact on polic"#4 Bevis Gillett, trustee, Marmot Charitable rust

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    ! Open Briefing

    Open Briefings niche

    Open Briefing e'ists in order to ensure that it is not onl" those with power and %one" who ha!e

    access to reliable, credible infor%ation on defence, securit" and foreign polic" issues6 e!er" citi*en

    should ha!e that infor%ation# his is the core %andate of our intelligence unit#

    $hile underta&ing this role, we occasionall" identif" issues that are not recei!ing ade+uateattention or policies that are not wor&ing# Our role then beco%es to e'plain these failings, propose

    e!idence-based alternati!e strategies, and le!erage our networ&s of influence to pro%ote those

    alternati!es to opinion-for%ers, polic"%a&ers and the general public# his is the core %andate of

    our thin& tan

    In this wa", our intelligence unit directl" infor%s the wor& of our thin& tan& but ad!ocac" is

    deliberatel" &ept separate fro% anal"sis#

    Open Briefing is transfor%ing the field and challenging the status +uo to distinguish itself in three

    i%portant wa"s)

    "pen Briefing provi#es intelligence, not information.$e do not just tell people what is

    happening# $e use anal"tical %ethods borrowed fro% the intelligence co%%unit" to

    e'plain wh" it is happening and what is li&el" to happen ne't#

    "pen Briefing #elivers the intelligence civil society nee#s. $e respond to the

    intelligence re+uire%ents of an international networ& of 100 aid agencies, charities and

    other ci!il societ" organisations and are guided in our wor& b" an ad!isor" board of ci!il

    societ" e'perts#

    "pen Briefing is strengthening the peace an# security sector. $e encourage

    collaborations within and be"ond the traditional peace %o!e%ent and acti!el" recruit

    anal"sts with intelligence, %ilitar", law enforce%ent and go!ern%ent bac&grounds in order

    to harness those s&illsets for the benefit of ci!il societ"#

    Open Briefing also stri!es to %a&e lin&s with other 3Os and co%panies# $e belie!e cooperation

    between si%ilar organisations creates a stronger and %ore sustainable peace and securit" sector b"

    dri!ing the de!elop%ent and spread of best practice and encouraging groups to harness

    co%ple%entarities#

    ationale

    If &nowledge is power, wh" should onl" the pri!ileged few in go!ern%ent and business ha!e access

    to reliable infor%ation about what is happening in the world7

    he %anipulation of intelligence about Ira+s supposed weapons of %ass destruction in 2008# he

    9S e%bass" cables and other %aterial lea&ed b" helsea (anning to $i&ilea&s in 2011# he true

    nature and scope of S. sur!eillance re!ealed b" :dward Snowden in 2018-1;# Such e!ents ha!e

    %ade it clear that onl" an aware and &nowledgeable citi*enr" can ensure the proper %eshing of

    intelligence and political action b" their go!ern%ents#

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    Project proposal and business plan, 2012-15 $

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    ( Open Briefing

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    Project proposal and business plan, 2012-15

    +ee#back from users of our /ebsite

    G$orthwhile and inno!ati!e project#4 ic&"

    GOpen Briefing is a great source of reliable infor%ation for those who li&e to &eep abreast of

    global challenges and dangers# I% reall" than&ful to these gu"s for &eeping clear-e"ed in the

    face of so %uch %isinfor%ation# Heep up the good wor&4 Cason 2011-12? was a hugel"

    successful pilot project and proof of concept >su%%arised in -ppen#i 0?# Stage 2 >2012-15?,

    detailed in this proposal, is %o!ing the organisation on fro% the aspirational stage b" de!eloping

    and e'panding our projects and ser!ices# .nd stage 8 >2015 onwards? will be one of real i%pact and

    influence#

    able 1.he planned de!elop%ent of Open Briefing#

    *tage imeframe +ocus

    1 2011-12 >start-up L M1? Pilot project and proof of concept

    2 2012-15 >M2-;? :'pansion of projects and ser!ices

    8 2015 onwards >M5L? ocus on i%pact and influence

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    Open Briefing

    Section IIStrategic plan

    .i%s and objecti!es

    oo %an" organisations start with a list of acti!ities and then wor& bac&wards fro% that to gi!e the

    appearance of strateg"# In contrast, Open Briefing has been built on strateg" fro% the beginning#

    $e started with our !ision of the change we wish to see in the world and filtered it through our

    %odel of social change in order to generate our ai%s and objecti!es# $e de!eloped our wor& plan

    and budget fro% that#

    Mission

    GOpen Briefing will be the leading ci!il societ" pro!ider of i%partial intelligence assess%ents,

    alternati!e polic" proposals and specialist consultanc" ser!ices in the areas of defence, securit"

    and foreign affairs#4

    2ision3 he ascendanc" of e!idence-based polic"%a&ing o!er ideolog" and assu%ption in national

    and international peace and securit" arenas#

    -ims3

    o help shape the 4ecosystem of security5to pri!ilege diplo%ac" and other non-%ilitar"

    %eans to pre!enting, %itigating and adapting to threats to peace and securit"#

    o support the #evelopment of a more robust civil society,better able to hold

    polic"%a&ers to account for securit" decision-%a&ing#

    o give citi6ens the kno/le#ge an# toolsneeded to %ore effecti!el" engage in peace and

    securit" debates and influence positi!e polic" de!elop%ents#

    "b7ectives3$e intend to achie!e and hopefull" e'ceed the following 10 objecti!es during stage 2#

    hese objecti!es are S(. >Specific, (easurable, .chie!able, ele!ant and i%e-bound? and are

    based around a%bitious targets, %an" at least 89 higher than those achie!ed during stage 1#

    Impact

    1# espond to 188intelligence re+uests fro% ci!il societ" organisations#

    2# Publish :8 Open Briefing publications#

    8# (a&e sisignificant inter!entions in &e" peace and securit" debates#

    ;# ecei!e 1!%edia %entions#

    Influence

    5# .ttain $,888subscribers in total#

    E#

    .ttract (,888uni+ue !isitors a %onth to the Open Briefing website#

    !. .chie!e an a!erage online influence score of 8;188.

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    > Open Briefing

    Section III$or& plan

    Open Briefings acti!it" is di!ided into four interlin&ed depart%ents, su%%arised below)

    intelligence unit, think tank, consultancyand community.

    0ntelligence unit

    Intelligence des&s

    $ee&l" briefings

    e%ote-control

    warfare %onthl"briefings

    Intelligence

    sponsor

    progra%%e

    hink tank

    Publications

    esearch the%es

    Special projects

    Consultancy

    esearch and

    ad!isor"

    Support ser!ices

    raining and

    capacit" building

    Community

    Social networ&s

    e-Bulletin, blog,

    podcast and apps

    rowdfunding

    Jolunteers

    Social %edia and

    co%%unit" tea%

    Press office

    Intelligence unit

    Open Briefings uni+ue intelligence unit pro!ides in-depth intelligence briefings and ris&

    assess%ents to ci!il societ" organisations and concerned citi*ens# his is our core acti!it", the

    outputs fro% which are a!ailable for free on our website and disse%inated through our e-bulletin,

    podcast, social networ&s and %obile app# ecent issues co!ered b" our intelligence briefs include)

    Political and securit" ris& assess%ents for 3reece

    ussias new .rctic brigades

    .lternati!e South Sudan oil pipeline routes

    ur&ish polic" towards Sudan

    he prospects of a Sudanese .rab Spring

    ur&ish polic" towards S"ria

    uclear de!elop%ents at the Parchin %ilitar" co%ple' in Iran

    he Open Briefing intelligence unit is organised around si' regional #esks3

    :urope

    .sia and Pacific

    (iddle :ast

    .frica

    .%ericas

    Polar regions

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    Project proposal and business plan, 2012-15 :

    hese are co%ple%ented b" fi!e crosscutting issue #esks3

    esource securit" and cli%ate change

    Political !iolence and dissent

    uclear issues

    9H national securit"

    onflict and diplo%ac"

    he issue des&s are based around the &e" areas identified b" the sustainable securit" fra%ewor&

    and are of particular interest to those wishing to influence British polic"%a&ers and their allies in

    :urope and the 9nited States# Please see -ppen#i 00for %ore infor%ation on our different des&s#

    Once full" operational, each des& consists of at least two anal"sts and a researcher, though we ai%

    to e'pand this to three anal"sts, two researchers and an ad!iser#

    he acti!it" of these des&s is dri!en b" an adapted intelligence cycle3a logical process of direction,

    planning, collection, processing, anal"sis and disse%ination#

    +ig !.he Open Briefing intelligence c"cle

    In this closed circuit, intelligence re+uire%ents are generated b" a decision %a&er and, at the end of

    the c"cle, the" pro!ide feedbac& and issue new or re!ised re+uire%ents# $e use this process to turn

    data >raw facts and figures? and infor%ation >conte't, %eaning and structure? into intelligence

    >anal"sis, insight and rele!ance? b" using !arious anal"tical %ethods borrowed fro% the intelligence

    co%%unit"#

    Open Briefing pro!ides clear anal"sis and intelligence that can add real !alue to the

    wor& of ci!il societ" networ&s# heir political anal"sis has been particularl" useful to

    risis .ctions ca%paign strategies#4Mariam )emple, campaigns A a#vocacy manager, Crisis -ction

    'irection

    Planning

    Collection

    Processing

    -nalysis

    'issemination

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    18 Open Briefing

    he "pen Briefing intelligence cycle

    'irection3Our intelligence %anager has careful discussions with the client to de!elop a specific

    intelligence re+uest or series of re+uests that address their needs# :ach re+uest usuall" ta&es the

    for% of a +uestion that pro!ides clear direction fro% the client#

    Planning3he intelligence %anager asse%bles a tea% of anal"sts, researchers and support staffwith the appropriate s&ill set to answer those +uestions# he appointed tea% leader de!elops a

    collection plan in conjunction with the intelligence %anager, which sets out the sources to be drawn

    upon, the %ethods to be used, the resources re+uired and the project deadlines#

    Collection3he tea% collects data fro% a !ariet" of carefull" !etted OSI >open source

    intelligence? and hu%an intelligence? sources# Such sources %ight include satellite

    i%ager", countr"-specific search engines, deep web search engines, social %edia, database %ining,

    national news agencies, professional associations, ci!il societ" networ&s and our own contacts on

    the ground#

    Processing3he collected data is processed so as to %a&e to usable b" the anal"tical tea%# his will

    include an assess%ent of its rele!ance and credibilit" and other processes such as translation,

    tabulation or %apping#

    -nalysis3he anal"tical tea% establishes the significance and i%plications of the processed

    intelligence# he" create new &nowledge using a !ariet" of techni+ues borrowed fro% the

    intelligence co%%unit" in order to respond to the clients intelligence re+uest>s?# Such %ethods

    include anal"sis of co%peting h"potheses, cone of plausibilit", linchpin anal"sis and alternati!e

    futures anal"sis#

    'issemination3Our final anal"sis is sent to the client in the agreed for%at, usuall" a written report#

    $e then follow this up with a conference call, during which the client will pro!ide feedbac& and

    issue new or re!ised re+uire%ents if appropriate# Our wor& is further disse%inated through our

    website, blog, podcast, e-bulletin, social networ&s and %obile app#

    he client in this conte't %ight usuall" be a go!ern%ent, %ilitar" or law enforce%ent decision

    %a&er#

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    Project proposal and business plan, 2012-15 11

    his approach allows us to %eet the specific needs and priorities of a di!erse section of ci!il societ"#

    It %a&es Open Briefing uni+ue in the peace and securit" sector) a true ci!il societ" intelligence

    agenc"#

    he hat *o /hat %o/ /hat protocol

    .ll our intelligence briefs draw upon the $hat7 So what7 ow what7 protocol to lin& intelligenceand polic" and pro!ide a co%prehensi!e, strategic anal"sis of an e!ent or issue)

    hathe who, what, where, when, wh" and how of the e!ent or issue >the 5$1< %a'i%?#

    *o /hathe %icro- and %acro-en!iron%ental ra%ifications of this e!ent or issue >ta&ing

    into consideration the P:SA: factors) political, econo%ic, socio-cultural, technological,

    legal and en!iron%ental?#

    %o/ /hatonse+uences of the e!ent or issue and reco%%ended responses >considering

    the ;Ps fra%ewor& of national interest) power, peace, prosperit" and principles?#

    $e are increasing the capacit" of our intelligence unit through our intelligence sponsor

    programme, which in!ol!es intelligence and capacit"-sharing agree%ents with carefull" !etted

    pri!ate intelligence and ris& consultancies# $e belie!e this is a uni+ue arrange%ent in the peace and

    securit" sector# Our first sponsor is Bradbur"s 3lobal is& Partners, and with the% we are producing

    he eekly Briefing, a free political and securit" ris& update assessing rele!ant international

    de!elop%ents# $e intend to e'pand this progra%%e to a do*en partners e!entuall"#

    Since .pril 201;, our intelligence unit has also produced a series of monthly briefings on

    #evelopments in remote&control /arfareco%%issioned b" the e%ote ontrol project# hese

    briefings focus on fi!e &e" areas of re%ote-control warfare) special operations forces6 pri!ate

    %ilitar" and securit" co%panies6 un%anned !ehicles and autono%ous weapons s"ste%s6 c"ber

    warfare6 and intelligence, sur!eillance and reconnaissance# See p#11 for %ore infor%ation on

    re%ote-control warfare#

    $ith the help of for%er intelligence officers, we are also currentl" drafting the Open Briefing

    intelligence analysis han#book as a guide to anal"tical techni+ues and words of esti%ati!e

    probabilit"# his is intended pri%aril" for our own anal"sts but will be published as a useful resource

    for acade%ics, journalists and researchers fro% other 3Os#

    or#s of estimative probability

    $ithin our intelligence briefs, li&elihoodprobabilit" is co%%unicated through the following specific

    words of esti%ati!e probabilit")

    .l%ost certain >N0K?

    F5-D5K?

    Ai&el" >55-F0K?

    Possible >25-50K?

    9nli&el" >15-20K?

    Q10K?

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    1! Open Briefing

    hin& tan&

    hrough the acti!it" of our intelligence unit we occasionall" identif" issues that are not recei!ing

    ade+uate attention or policies that are not wor&ing# Our tas& then beco%es to e'plain such failings,

    propose e!idence-based alternati!e policies, and le!erage our networ&s of influence to pro%ote

    those alternati!es to opinion-for%ers and polic"%a&ers# his is the pur!iew of our thin& tan

    .s part of this, Open Briefing publishes a nu%ber of polic"-orientated publications, which are

    infor%ed b" rigorous research and subject to peer re!iew# hese publications ai% to be

    co%prehensi!e, conte'tual and condensed# In other words, the" co!er the different ele%ents of and

    perspecti!es on an issue and pro!ide the bac&ground to and circu%stances of an e!ent, while at the

    sa%e ti%e re%aining concise and succinct# he" are guided b" the long-standing and near-uni!ersal

    concerns of progressi!e ci!il societ") pro%oting hu%an rights, %aintaining hu%an securit" and

    protecting the en!iron%ent#

    hese are published in !arious for%ats depending on the intended readership# Boo&s pro!ide an in-depth e'a%ination of an issue of wider i%portance# Briefing papers offer a fresh perspecti!e on an

    issue of significant i%portance, and usuall" include a su%%ar" for polic"%a&ers# .rticles pro!ide

    co%%ent fro% Open Briefing anal"sts and are usuall" published in partnership with other outlets,

    such as open/e%ocrac", in order to reach a wider readership and raise the profile of Open Briefing#

    ecent issues co!ered b" our publications include)

    ussias airborne forces

    he forthco%ing succession of the Supre%e Aeader in Iran

    I%pro!ing the uclear on-proliferation reat"

    Indias role in .fghanistan

    orecasting conflict in $est, entral and Southern .frica

    :ducation and !iolent e'tre%is% in igeria

    9S drone stri&es in Pa&istan

    Irans outreach to .fghanistan and aji&istan

    he Iranian nuclear progra%%e

    :g"pts political and econo%ic challenges

    he need for asserti!e Israeli diplo%ac"

    :cono%ic crisis and political instabilit" in Sudan

    /o%estic dri!ers of the Sen&a&u/iao"u Islands confrontation

    he acti!ities of our thin& tan& are organised around se!eral research themes,including but not

    li%ited to)

    Sustainable securit"

    e%ote-control warfare

    Israel-Iran conflict

    Southeast .sian insurgencies Predicting conflict in .frica

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    Project proposal and business plan, 2012-15 1$

    here is a particular focus within our thin& tan& on sustainable securit" and re%ote-control warfare#

    Sustainable securit" is a fra%ewor& for thin&ing about securit" based on understanding integrated

    security trendsand developing preventative responses# he central pre%ise of sustainable securit" is

    that "ou cannot successfull" control all the conse+uences of insecurit", but %ust wor& to resol!e

    the causes# e%ote-control warfare, on the other hand, is a paradig% that has e%erged since the

    war on terror that enables warfare to be actioned at a distance b" rel"ing on =s%art technologies

    and light-footprint deplo"%ents, such as ar%ed drones and special forces# he proble% is that it

    allows actions to be appro!ed that would ne!er be considered using con!entional %ilitar" %eans6

    "et the conse+uences and ris&s of those actions are not being ade+uatel" considered#

    he Open Briefing thin& tan& acts as a research centre for our anal"sts, through which the" can see&

    e'ternal funding to underta&e occasional special pro7ects in response to a need to dri!e polic"

    change in a particular area or raise awareness of a crucial e%erging issue# hese cutting edge

    projects are defined b" research, collaboration and ad!ocac", and go to the !er" heart of the wa" we

    thin& about and atte%pt to ensure our securit"# he first of these projects secured funding fro% thee%ote ontrol project to produce the ongoing series of %onthl" intelligence briefings %entioned

    earlier#

    onsultanc"

    Open Briefing launched its consultanc" at the end of 2012# .s a social enterprise, the acti!ities we

    underta&e through our consultanc" are not si%pl" inco%e generating but are related to our core

    %andate# his %eans that an" resources di!erted to our consultanc" wor& will still be supporting

    our strategic plan# .s part of this, we offer subsidised or pro bono consultanc" to non-profits on

    li%ited budgets#

    $e specialise in pro!iding actionable an# pre#ictive intelligence,not just infor%ation# .n

    intelligence brief fro% Open Briefing answers specific +uestions drawn up to help the client ta&e

    the decisions needed to progress their project# .ll contracts begin with the preparation of a

    detailed collection plan for the client, co!ering e!er" stage of the intelligence c"cle, and end with a

    follow-up conference call to ensure that the" ha!e e!er"thing that the" need#

    Our clients ha!e included )PMG, the ?emote Control project and *avannah is#om, plus the pro

    bono intelligence wor& we underta&e for Crisis -ction. Issues we ha!e wor&ed on include)

    he use of barrel bo%bs b" the S"rian ar%ed forces

    @atari aid and financial assistance to Sudan

    9n%anned co%bat aerial !ehicles in ussia, hina, Iran, Israel, ur&e" and India

    orruption in the phar%aceutical suppl" chain to the de!eloping world

    Special operations forces

    Pri!ate %ilitar" and securit" co%panies

    he acti!ities of our consultanc" can be di!ided into three broad areas) research an# a#visory,

    support services and training an# capacity buil#ing.

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    1( Open Briefing

    Our international networ& of anal"sts and researchers contains a !ast a%ount of co%bined

    e'pertise and e'perience, which enables us to offer e'ceptional research and ad!isor" ser!ices to

    the public, pri!ate and third sectors)

    Open source intelligence gathering and anal"sis

    Political and securit" ris& ad!isor"

    Issue %onitoring ser!ices

    ra!el and securit" ad!ice

    Order of battleforce structure anal"sis

    I%ager" anal"sis

    $e are also able to offer an e'tensi!e range of ser!ices to support organisations and projects,

    including translation, editing and research assistance# Open Briefing will also be de!eloping open

    source intelligence training courses for journalists, researchers and other business and ci!il societ"

    actors who need to de!elop their anal"tical s&ills#

    Open Briefing pro!ided an in!aluable ser!ice to us, conducting high-+ualit"

    research in an e'tre%el" tight ti%efra%e and with a li%ited budget# he uni+ue

    and wide-ranging pool of e'pertise a!ailable ensured that our !er" specific

    re+uests were %et with the ut%ost precision#4

    Caroline 'onnellan, manager, ?emote Control pro7ect

    o%%unit"

    Open Briefing loo&s be"ond the polic" won&s of the $est%inster bubble or $ashington beltwa" in

    order to reach out to wider ci!il societ" and concerned citi*ens# $e are putting considerable effort

    into de!eloping the co%%unities of people interested in or lin&ed to Open Briefing, including

    establishing a social me#ia an# community teamin Cul" 2018#

    $e belie!e users should be able to access our %aterial how the" want, when the" want# So we ha!e

    de!eloped nu%erous wa"s for people to &eep up-to-date with world e!ents and read our co%%ent

    and anal"sis, where!er the" are# .ll the outputs fro% our acti!ities are freel" a!ailable through)

    ebsite, www#openbriefing#org

    he $ee&l" Briefing e&bulletin

    he Briefing oo%blog

    he Open Briefingpo#cast

    . mobile appfor .ndroid s%art phones and tablets >with an iOS app in de!elop%ent?

    *ocial net/orkson aceboo&, witter, Mouube, Ain&edIn and 3oogleL

    u%erous ?** fee#s

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    Project proposal and business plan, 2012-15 1

    $e acti!el" encourage %e%bers of the co%%unit" to support our wor& b" pro%oting Open Briefing

    to their contacts and as&ing the% to join our 181818fundingcrowdfunding ca%paign >see Section

    J for %ore details?#

    (e%bers of the co%%unit" can beco%e e!en %ore in!ol!ed in our wor& b" !olunteering for us#

    here are four different t"pes of !olunteer at Open Briefing) contributing anal"sts, associate

    researchers, e'ecuti!e associates and %icro!olunteers# ogether the" %a&e up the international

    networ& that is the Open Briefing tea%# hese different roles are outlined in %ore detail in the

    following section#

    inall", our press officeis %anaged under this depart%ent as a point of contact for journalists and

    pro!ides a list of Open Briefing e'perts a!ailable for inter!iew#

    +ig $.he Open Briefing app on an iPhone and iPad#

    Issues of securit" and defence are often the least transparent to the public# Open

    Briefing is an i%portant contribution to ensuring de%ocratic o!ersight of

    go!ern%ents and ar%ies#4 Dohn +effer, coirector, +oreign Policy in +ocus

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    1 Open Briefing

    Section IJOrganisational plan

    Structure

    Open Briefing Atd is a registered non&profit company limite# by guarantee>o# 0FE;NE5E?# It is

    run as a social enterprise, appl"ing business strategies to achie!e financial stabilit" in support of its

    core ai%s# he e'ecuti!e director is currentl" e'ploring the pros and cons of alternati!e not-for-

    profit structures, including charit" or o%%unit" Interest o%pan"#

    Open Briefing uses a radicall" different organisational %odel) we are a virtual think tank,staffed

    nearl" entirel" b" !olunteers# his %odel encourages the de!elop%ent of a decentralised

    organisation, which ta&es ad!antage of the internet, cloud co%puting and new co%%unication

    technologies to carr" out acti!ities in a %ore cost-effecti!e and en!iron%entall" friendl" wa"#

    projected at onl" 5K o!er the ne't three

    "ears?, and frees the organisation fro% a specific localit"# It %eans Open Briefing can start s%all and

    de!elop organicall", while being able to adapt rapidl" to future challenges#

    he tea%

    Open Briefing is run b" our eecutive #irector,who is aided b" an honorar" a#visory boar#.

    esearch and anal"sis pro!ided b" our international networ& of analysts, supported b" associateresearchers. .dditional %anage%ent and ad%inistration capacit" co%es fro% eecutive

    associates,microvolunteersand occasional freelancers.Please see -ppen#i 000for biographies

    of all tea% %e%bers#

    /uring stage 2 or 8, we intend to recruit an intelligence managerto coordinate the intelligence

    unit if funding allows#

    Eecutive 'irector

    he founder and e'ecuti!e director of Open Briefing is hris .bbott, an

    influential writer and consultant in the areas of defence, securit" and

    international relations# hris is an honorar" !isiting research fellow in the School

    of Social and International Studies at the 9ni!ersit" of Bradford and an ad!iser

    to the sustainable securit" progra%%e at O'ford esearch 3roup, a leading

    foreign affairs thin& tan& of which he was deput" director until 200N#

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    Project proposal and business plan, 2012-15 19nited Hingdo%?

    *teve Fathorn,for%er %ilitar" and law enforce%ent intelligence officer and intelligence

    anal"st for the 9nited ations and International ri%inal ourt >9nited Hingdo%?

    *cott Fickie, political ad!iser and law"er >.ustralia?

    )ev7n Him, hu%anitarian professional and for%er %ilitar" intelligence officer >Singapore?

    ?ob "5Gorman, for%er intelligence operator and (ission Support Officer >anada?

    Marc van "u#heus#en, senior political ad!iser to go!ern%ent and .O >he etherlands?

    .nal"sts are assigned to a pri%ar" regional des& and %an" are assigned to a secondar" issue des

    .d hoc tea%s are also bought together for specific publications and anal"sts with particular s&ill

    sets are often te%poraril" seconded to other des&s#

    -ssociate researchers

    Our anal"sts are supported b" associate researchers, who pro!ide research and fact-chec&ing

    support to our intelligence des&s# he current associate researchers are)

    Gustavo PlIci#o #os *antos, researcher, Portuguese Institute of International elations

    >Portugal?

    )irsten interman, projects officer, Be"ond Borders Scotland >9nited Hingdo%?

    ?aphaJl Kaffran, political scientist and Ph/ candidate >Swit*erland?

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    1> Open Briefing

    Eecutive associates

    here are a host of acti!ities that go on behind the scenes in support of our core research and

    ad!ocac" wor $e are recruiting !arious e'ecuti!e associates to support these %anage%ent and

    ad%inistrati!e functions, which include %edia wor&, fundraising, editing and co%%unit"

    %anage%ent# Our current e'ecuti!e researchers are)

    Erin 'ecker,%ar&eting coordinator, (H IPSO >9nited States?

    )irthi Dayakumar,hu%an rights law"er >India?

    Microvolunteers

    Open Briefing partners with *kills for Changeto facilitate people %icro!olunteering for us#

    (icro!olunteering is con!enient, bite-si*ed and crowdsourced and allows Open Briefing to get

    considerable e'tra input on specific tas&s, including %ar&eting, social %edia and project e!aluation#

    Please see sparke#.com;nonprofit;!a

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    Project proposal and business plan, 2012-15 1:

    Section Jinancial plan

    Ae!eraging a networ& of !olunteers enables us to achie!e an i%pact and influence far be"ond what

    our si*e and budget would suggest possible, and full" %a'i%ises donors financial input# B" also

    using a !irtual office and &eeping o!erheads to an absolute %ini%u% >budgeted at onl" 5K for

    2012-15?, the %ajorit" of our inco%e can be spent directl" on our peace and securit" wor

    inancial %anage%ent is supported b" o%%unit" .ccounting Ser!ices Hernow, who pro!ide

    reduced cost specialist accounting ser!ices and ad!ice to charities and other non-profits# Ban&ing is

    pro!ided b" the o-operati!e Ban&, a British ethical ban

    Budget

    able !. Budget brea&down b" depart%ent and "ear#

    'epartmentLear 1 !81!&1$N Lear ! !81$&1(N Lear $ !81(&1N

    otal

    R K R K R K

    Intelligence unit R1D,E50 8EK R25,08; 8DK R2E,8DN 8NK RF0,02D

    hin& tan& RN,D50 1NK R15,F1N 28K R1E,0ED 28K R;1,E8F

    onsultanc" R8,;E0 FK R2,8N8 ;K R2,;;N 8K RD,802

    o%%unit" RE,2F5 12K RF,21E 11K RF,821 11K R20,D12

    ore costs R18,;05 2EK R1E,1;5 2;K R1E,8F; 2;K R;5,N2;

    otal =1,: =,8> =>,88 =1>,

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    !8 Open Briefing

    unding

    It is anticipated that the !ast %ajorit" of our funding during stage 2 will co%e fro% grant%a&ers#

    able $.unding target b" source for stage 2#

    *ource arget ?aise# to #ate 9 of target

    3rant%a&ers R1F5,000 RD0,;50 ;EK

    Social enterprise R12,000 RE,;;0 58#FK

    rowdfunding R8,000 R500 1E#FK

    Jenture philanthrop" na na na

    otal =1:8,888 =>

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    Project proposal and business plan, 2012-15 !1

    able .Successful applications to 9H trusts for funding for stage 2#

    rust -pplie# -mount

    etwor& for Social hange Septe%ber 2012 R12,500

    (ar%ot haritable rust o!e%ber 2012 R5,000

    Polden-Puc&ha% haritable oundation ebruar" 2018 R80,000

    he Phila%onic rust October 2018 R1,000

    (ar%ot haritable rust o!e%ber 2018 R8,000

    etwor& for Social hange (arch 201; R12,000

    e%ote ontrol project (arch 201; R8,ND0

    e%ote ontrol project October 201; R5,NF0

    In addition to our uni+ue nature and strategic goals, there are three i%portant financial reasons

    that %a&e funding our wor& attracti!e for grant%a&ers)

    1# ?esource magnification3unding for onl" one paid %e%ber of staff enables the wor& of 21

    !olunteer anal"sts, researchers, associates and ad!isers#

    2# 0mpact magnification3Open Briefing uses so%e of its funding to pro!ide subsidised and

    pro bono consultanc" to ci!il societ" organisations on li%ited budgets#

    8# ?each magnification3Open Briefings wor& is distributed directl" to o!er 2,500 subscribers

    and 2,000 website !isitors a %onth#

    *ocial enterprise

    O!er the %ediu% to long ter%, Open Briefing intends to be at least partl" self-financing as a

    successful social enterprise# his %eans de!eloping a sustainable business %odel fro% the !er"

    beginning# or it to be sustainable, the %odel %ust be based on a realistic plan for generating a

    %eaningful percentage of our inco%e fro% non-grant sources without di!erting too %an" resources

    awa" fro% our core research and ad!ocac" acti!ities#

    .chie!ing this will in!ol!e de!eloping %ultiple and di!erse inco%e strea%s fro% products and

    ser!ices related to Open Briefings core acti!ities# he %ain focus during stage 2 will be further

    de!eloping the acti!ities of the consultanc" detailed in Section III, including research and ad!isor",

    support ser!ices and training and capacit" building# .t a later stage we %a" consider website

    %onestisation >including paid-for content and ad!ertising? and a pre%iu% %obile app#

    Please note, although Open Briefing is a not-for-profit organisation that does not %ean we cannot

    see& to generate inco%e fro% co%%ercial acti!ities, si%pl" that an" financial surplus each "ear will

    be in!ested bac& into the organisation and its core peace and securit" acti!ities#

    $e ai% to generate at least =1!,888fro% social enterprise during stage 2# .s of October 201;, our

    social enterprise has a turno!er of =,((8>with a 18#8K profit %argin?#

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    !! Open Briefing

    Cro/#fun#ing

    $hile trusts and foundations the principal route for funding peace and securit" initiati!es in the

    9nited Hingdo%, a no!el decentralised %odel is e%erging that is ideal for newer organisations)

    crowdfunding#

    Open Briefing has e%braced this approach with its 181818fundingca%paign# his as&s those who

    would li&e to support our wor& to co%%it to donating R10 a %onth for at least 10 %onths, and to

    as& 10 of their friends to consider doing the sa%e# Supporters can also %a&e one-off donations

    through our website or through their ban $e are also e'ploring the use of crowdfunding websites

    to help fill an" te%porar" funding gaps#

    Our crowdfunding target for stage 2 is =$,888..s of October 201;, we ha!e raised =88fro%

    donations#

    2enture philanthropy

    (odern organisational success should be %easured against a triple botto% line) financial, social and

    en!iron%ental >or profit, people and planet the =three Ps?# $hile businesses usuall" focus

    e'clusi!el" on financial profit >often to the detri%ent of the other two?, Open Briefing see&s instead

    to create social and en!iron%ental benefits# /onors to Open Briefing are therefore actuall"

    in!estors hoping to see positi!e returns for people and planet#

    3i!en that %an" of Open Briefings objecti!es for stage 2 are based on targets at least 50K higher

    than those achie!ed during stage 1, donors are essentiall" in!esting with an e'pectation of a 89

    social impact return over three years. .s such, we do not !iew specific project outco%es as %erel"

    =desirable but see accountabilit" for achie!ing these outco%es as the essential core of the funding

    relationship# In this wa", grants and donations are not treated as gifts but rather as in!est%ents

    that co%e with certain obligations on our part) chiefl", to achie!e the specific objecti!es listed in

    Section II of this proposal#

    :'tending this approach, we are e'ploring wa"s of accessing results-based financing, including

    philanthropic capital, i%pact in!est%ent, corporate sponsorship and other for%s of pri!ate

    in!est%ent in our ai%s and objecti!es# .ll our wor& in this area will be guided b" our ethical polic" to

    ensure we retain our independence and integrit"#

    .s part of this, Open Briefing is e'a%ining social i%pact bonds a range of inno!ati!e, %ar&et-

    based approaches to funding# his new breed of in!est%ent products transfers ris& awa" fro%

    grant%a&ers and to the pri!ate sector) when an organisation fails to %eet its i%pact objecti!es, the

    grant%a&er withholds funds and the pri!ate in!estor carries the costs# If the i%pacts are

    successfull" achie!ed, the grant%a&er releases the funds, which include a s%all percentage return

    for the pri!ate in!estors# Such products focus on i%pacts rather than organisations and lin& the

    disburse%ent of funds to a schedule dependent on the achie!e%ent of specific objecti!es#

    his is a no!el and untried funding strea%, and so we no longer ha!e a fi'ed target for inco%e fro%

    !enture philanthrop" sources during stage 2#

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    Project proposal and business plan, 2012-15 !$

    -ppen#ices

    urther infor%ation

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    !( Open Briefing

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    Project proposal and business plan, 2012-15 !

    .ppendi' Ie!iew of stage 1

    Stage 1was a pilot project consisting of a start-up phase fro% (a" 2011, when the organisation was

    registered, until 10 October 2011, when the organisation was publicl" launched, followed b" the

    first 12 %onths of operation, which ser!ed as a =proof of concept#

    Stage 1 had se!en objecti!es, progress achie!ed against each of which is su%%arised below#

    able . Su%%ar" of stage 1 objecti!es#

    "b7ective *tatus 9 of target

    .ttract at least 500 !isitors a %onth fro% around

    the world to the organisations website#

    Surpassed ;00K

    ollect, assess and distribute at least N0 open

    source intelligence ite%s#

    Surpassed 2D0K

    Sign up at least 800 subscribers to the

    organisations e-bulletin and social networ&s#

    Surpassed 280K

    Publish at least 15 anal"ses, 8 dossiers and 2

    briefings#

    Surpassed 1F0K

    :stablish the thin& tan& and associated online

    presence#

    .chie!ed 100K

    arr" out a thorough e!aluation of the

    organisations effecti!eness and !alue#

    .chie!ed 100K

    Secure longer-ter% funding for stage 2 of the

    project#

    In progress ;EK

    or an organisation of its si*e and budget, Open Briefing achie!ed a !er" high le!el of acti!it" and

    output during stage 1# his included one boo&, two briefing papers, four dossiers, 11 articles and 1E

    anal"ses and intelligence briefs, co!ering a di!erse range of securit" and foreign polic" issues#

    Please see openbriefing.org;thinktank;publications for a full list of Open Briefing publications#

    Our first briefing paper, -s the #ust settles3 -voi#ing the mistakes of "slo an# @tOya in future

    me#ia coverage of suspecte# terrorist attacks,was published on 5 .ugust 2011# his %edia

    briefing e'plored the factors that contributed to failures in the reporting i%%ediatel" after the

    2011 orwa" attac&s that led to Isla%ic e'tre%ists being wrongl" bla%ed and proposed wa"s of

    a!oiding these failures in future# he briefing was well recei!ed and was highlighted and +uoted

    fro% in li!e reporting b" the #uardianof the /ece%ber 2011 grenade attac&s in Aige, Belgiu%#

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    ! Open Briefing

    *ummary of key achievements #uring stage 1

    1# ro% a single founder, Open Briefing e'panded to beco%e an international tea% of 25 staff,

    anal"sts, associates and ad!isers#

    2# Open Briefing published 8; original publications during stage 1) one boo&, two briefing papers,

    four dossiers, 11 articles and 1E anal"ses and intelligence briefs#

    8# he Open Briefing website recei!ed an a!erage 2,000 uni+ue !isitors a %onth b" the end of

    stage 1#

    ;# here were F00 subscribers to Open Briefings e-bulletin, podcast and other outputs b" the end

    of stage 1#

    5# F2K of respondents to a user sur!e" on the Open Briefing website rated the organisation =good

    or =e'cellent o!erall#

    E#

    Open Briefing raised R;1,880 and finished stage 1 with a RF,000 surplus, which was carriedforward for use during stage 2#

    F# In /ece%ber 2011, Open Briefings first briefing paper, $s the dust settles $voiding the mistakes

    of %slo and &t'ya in future media coverage of suspected terrorist attacks, was highlighted and

    +uoted fro% in li!e reporting b" the #uardianof the grenade attac&s in Aige, Belgiu%#

    D# In Cune 2012, Open Briefing was no%inated for an .wwward >the award for design and

    inno!ation on the internet? and recei!ed an honourable %ention and a public !ote of D#EF out of

    10#

    N#

    In Septe%ber 2012, Open Briefing reached an agree%ent to %eet the intelligence re+uire%ents

    of a networ& of 100 ci!il societ" organisations trul" %a&ing the organisation the worlds first

    ci!il societ" intelligence agenc"#

    10#In October 2012, Open Briefings first co%%issioned intelligence brief, an anal"sis of a Mouube

    !ideo purportedl" showing %issing 9S freelance journalist .ustin ice, conclusi!el" identified

    the prisoner in the !ideo as ice but also identified se!eral irregularities that indicated it %ight

    not be a genuine jihadist !ideo#

    Our first briefing paper, -s the #ust settles3 -voi#ing the mistakes of "slo an# @tOya in future

    me#ia coverage of suspecte# terrorist attacks,was published on 5 .ugust 2011# his %edia

    briefing e'plored the factors that contributed to failures in the reporting i%%ediatel" after the

    2011 orwa" attac&s that led to Isla%ic e'tre%ists being wrongl" bla%ed and proposed wa"s of

    a!oiding these failures in future# he briefing was well recei!ed and was highlighted and +uoted

    fro% in li!e reporting b" the #uardianof the /ece%ber 2011 grenade attac&s in Aige, Belgiu%#

    Our second briefing paper, ?ehabilitating the /ar on #rugs3 Central -merica an# the legalisation

    #ebate,was published in :nglish and Spanish on ; .pril 2012, ten da"s before the Si'th Su%%it of

    the .%ericas, where, for the first ti%e, alternati!es to prohibition were discussed b" .%erican

    leaders, led b" 3uate%alan President Otto Pere* (olina#

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    !> Open Briefing

    .ppendi' IIIntelligence des&s

    egional des&s

    Europe

    he focus of the :urope des& e'tends be"ond the political boundaries of the :uropean 9nion to

    include all those countries that lie between the ordic countries in the north and 3reece and Ital" in

    the south, and Spain and Portugal in the west to ussia and the Bal&ans in the east#

    he political and econo%ic integration of %uch of this region is %atched b" shared securit"

    concerns around the econo%ic crisis and resulting austerit" %easures and go!ern%ent spending

    cuts6 a cluster of issues around i%%igration and integration6 and the instabilit" caused b" organised

    cri%e, particularl" the illicit drugs trade and people traffic&ing#

    urther%ore, %an" of the countries in the region face the threat of terrorist attac&s fro% separatist

    %o!e%ents, as well as an ongoing ris& posed b" radical Isla%ist para%ilitar" groups and those the"

    inspire# In ter%s of state-based conflict, a particular concern is the widening gulf between ussia

    and the :9 and .O#

    -sia an# Pacific

    he .sia and Pacific des& %onitors securit" issues within entral, South, :ast and Southeast .sia and

    Oceania, including those countries fro% Pa&istan and India in the west to Capan in the east, and

    (ongolia and hina in the north to ew Tealand and .ustralia in the southeast#

    .lthough the region lac&s clear geographical, political or ethnic boundaries, there is a ne'us of

    co%%on securit" concerns that has grown fro% the regional power shift, with %ajor new powers

    e%erging and s%aller states atte%pting to protect their interests in this changing d"na%ic# he

    resulting ar%s race is largel" unrecognised, but the region is e'periencing an action-reaction

    d"na%ic) %ilitar" ad!ance%ents and ar%s purchases b" one countr" are closel" followed b" si%ilar

    de!elop%ents fro% its neighbours# .t the sa%e ti%e, cli%ate change and the other long-ter%e%erging threats to securit" will re+uire regional responses and thus a degree of regional unit" that

    is currentl" lac&ing because of the preoccupation with state so!ereignt" and %aintaining state

    integrit"#

    In addition to this local d"na%ic, the 9nited States is refocusing its attention on the .sia-Pacific,

    which %a" further increase the %ilitarisation of the region and e'acerbate tensions with the

    regional power, hina#

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    Project proposal and business plan, 2012-15 !:

    Mi##le East

    he (iddle :ast des& uses a broad definition of the region, which enco%passes a di!erse area of

    Southwest .sia that stretches fro% :g"pt in the west to .fghanistan in the east, and ur&e" in the

    north to Me%en in the south#

    Principal securit" concerns in the region include conflict and occupation >including Ira+, .fghanistan,

    S"ria and Israel-Palestine?, resource %is%anage%ent, and %arginalisation and social e'clusion#

    $hile there ha!e been %an" atte%pts to address these %atters, there are other deepl" entrenched

    issues that %a&e change slow and difficult, including the .rab-Israeli conflict, al-@aeda and other

    !iolent %o!e%ents, and ongoing e'ternal interference in the region#

    $hile $estern efforts to reshape the (iddle :ast through the war on terror were disastrous, the

    .rab Spring that followed brought about the fall of long-standing dictators and hinted at the

    regions potential future# he ci!il wars and surge in radical Isla%ist terroris% that ha!e then

    e%erged present new challenges and the real ris& of pro'" conflicts in!ol!ing regional and global

    powers#

    -frica

    he .frica des& focusses on securit" issues of concern for the 5; countries spread across the

    continent, fro% Aib"a and the other countries of the (aghreb in the north to South .frica in the

    south, and Senegal, 3a%bia and others in the west to So%alia and the rest of the and the %ilitarised go!ern%ent responses?, socio-econo%ic di!isions and

    corruption, and en!iron%ental and energ" insecurities#

    .lthough %uch of the region fell largel" outside the scope of war on terror, terroris% is ob!iousl"

    an issue of central i%portance in orth .%erica#

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    $8 Open Briefing

    Polar regions

    he polar regions des& is concerned with the securit" issues arising in the areas surrounding the

    orth and South Poles in the .rctic Ocean and .ntarctica and the Southern Ocean respecti!el"# It

    also co!ers the unresol!ed dispute between .rgentina and the 9nited Hingdo% o!er ownership of

    the al&land Islands Islas (al!inas, which resulted in ar%ed conflict in 1ND2#

    he 9nited States, anada, /en%ar&, orwa", inland, Sweden and ussia all ha!e clai%s to .rctic

    regions, so de!elop%ents in the area will undoubtedl" ha!e i%portant ra%ifications for

    international relations, international law, international cli%ate change polic" and international

    trade# In particular, the prospects of e'ploiting the .rctics natural resources and gaining access to

    new shipping routes as sea ice %elts is leading to increased econo%ic, political and %ilitar" interest

    in the region#

    In contrast, .ntarctica has no per%anent hu%an habitation and no go!ern%ent# hough !arious

    countries clai% so!ereignt" o!er certain areas >so%e of the% o!erlapping?, the .ntarctic reat"

    prohibits an" %ilitar" acti!it" in region# Of particular interest here, though, are the de!astating and

    irre!ersible effects of cli%ate change#

    Issue des&s

    ?esource security an# climate change

    he resource securit" and cli%ate change des& %onitors a host of resource and en!iron%ental

    issues and their i%plications for national and international securit"#

    Of particular concern are the three !ital and interrelated resources of food, water and energ", which

    are essential to both hu%an and state securit"# Insecurit" in these resources is being e'acerbated b"

    cli%ate change, the issue that is the pri%ar" concern of this des

    It is essential to understand the role such issues %a" pla" in igniting or sustaining conflict and

    disorder, including ci!il unrest, interco%%unal !iolence and international instabilit"# . greater

    appreciation of the processes that could lead fro% resource scarcit" and en!iron%ental changes to

    socio-econo%ic i%pacts and securit" ris&s is essential to the de!elop%ent of effecti!e pre!ention,

    %itigation and adaptation strategies#

    Political violence an# #issent

    he political !iolence and dissent des& %onitors the underl"ing causes of dissent, the different

    e'pressions of resistance, and go!ern%ent atte%pts at suppression#

    his co!ers a huge range of issues and degrees of !iolence, including the de%ocratic right to

    protest, far-right e'tre%is%, re!olutions and the .rab Spring, insurgencies, do%estic and

    international terroris% and al-@aeda and the war on terror# In all this, a particular concern is the

    feedbac& loop often present whereb" draconian or !iolent go!ern%ent responses feed bac& into

    the underl"ing causes of dissent and e'acerbate an alread" fractious situation#

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    urther%ore, political !iolence and dissent is not generated in a !acuu%) it is a response borne out

    of frustration and anger at a percei!ed or actual injustice# :!en when it finds its %ost e'tre%e

    e'pression in terroris%, there re%ain underl"ing causes often relating to nationalis% and

    occupation that need to be understood if counterterroris% strategies are to be effecti!e#

    %uclear issueshe nuclear issues des& %onitors de!elop%ents in the Sia%ese twins of nuclear energ" and nuclear

    weapons#

    .lthough the uclear on-proliferation reat" allows for the peaceful use of nuclear energ", the

    inherent dile%%a is that nuclear energ" and nuclear weapons are two sides of the sa%e coin) a

    countr" cannot ha!e one without at least the potential to de!elop the other# he recent

    reconnaissance in the de!elop%ent of ci!ilian nuclear power progra%%es therefore presents

    serious securit" ris&s in addition to the ob!ious en!iron%ental and econo%ic ones# >hese ris&s %ust

    be weighed against those of uncontrolled cli%ate change and contrasted with the ad!antages of

    renewable energ" progra%%es#?

    In contrast, there ha!e been so%e li%ited successes on the nuclear weapons front) the" ha!e not

    been used in anger for nearl" F0 "ears6 their spread be"ond the original fi!e nuclear-weapon states

    has been li%ited, with so%e states !oluntaril" renouncing their weapons progra%%es6 nuclear

    weapons testing is largel" a thing of the past6 and just o!er half the :arths land area is co!ered b"

    nuclear-weapons-free *ones#

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    $! Open Briefing

    Conflict an# #iplomacy

    he conflict and diplo%ac" des& %onitors e%erging and ongoing ar%ed conflicts and the atte%pts

    to pre!ent or resol!e the%#

    his includes ar%ed conflict between two or %ore states >international ar%ed conflict?, ci!il wars

    between go!ern%ent ar%ed forces and separatist or terrorist ar%ed groups, or between such

    groups onl" >non-international ar%ed conflict?, and ci!il wars in which the ar%ed forces of a foreign

    power ha!e inter!ened >internationalised non-international ar%ed conflicts?# his also includes so-

    called pro'" wars#

    he factors that can e'acerbate such conflicts including ci!ilian casualties, the political

    %anipulation of sectarianis% or the in!ol!e%ent of e'ternal powers warrant particular attention#

    I%portantl", so do efforts within international law and diplo%ac" to reduce or resol!e conflicts and

    hold those responsible for war cri%es to account#

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    .ppendi' IIIea% biographies

    Staff and !olunteers

    Chris -bbottis the founder andeecutive #irectorof Open Briefing#

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    $( Open Briefing

    Erin 'eckeris an eecutive associate at Open Briefing# She is also a %ar&eting

    coordinator at (H IPSO# Between 200N and 2018, she wor&ed as a translator,

    %ar&eting associate and editor for !arious %ultinational consulting fir%s and

    financial institutions in ussia, including Pricewaterhouseoopers# She is a

    %e%ber of the 9S ational Aanguage Ser!ice orps# :rin has a bachelors

    degree in political science and international studies >global securit"? fro% the

    9ni!ersit" of $isconsin at (adison#

    *teve Fathornis a contributing analyst at Open Briefing#

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    ?ob "5Gormanis a senior analyst at Open Briefing#

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    ?aphaJl Kaffran is an associate researcher at Open Briefing# B.SI? and before that progra%%e %anager at

    Saferworld# Ian is an ad!iser to the 9 .ssociation-9H and ISIS :urope#

    0sabel Filtonis the founder and editor of hina /ialogue, the worlds first

    :nglish-hinese bilingual website de!oted to the en!iron%ent# She is an

    international journalist and broadcaster and has wor&ed for Scottish ele!ision,

    the "aily )*press, the Sunday Times, the Independent, the +ew orkerand the

    BB# Since 2001 she has been a presenter of the BB adio 8 cultural

    progra%%e, ight $a!es# Isabel has authored and co-authored se!eral boo&s#

    'r %ick Mabeyis the chief e'ecuti!e and a founder director of :83, an

    international non-profit dedicated to accelerating the transition to sustainable

    de!elop%ent# In addition to his %anage%ent role, ic& leads :83s wor& on

    cli%ate securit" and :uropean cli%ate change polic"# ic& was pre!iousl" a

    senior ad!iser in the 9H Pri%e (inisters Strateg" 9nit and, before joining

    go!ern%ent, head of econo%ics and de!elop%ent at $$-9H#

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    $> Open Briefing

    .ppendi' IJOrganisational policies

    Business continuit" plan

    . S::PA: anal"sis >considering socio-cultural, technological, econo%ic, en!iron%ental, political,

    legal and ethical factors? and S$O anal"sis >e!aluating strengths, wea&nesses, opportunities and

    threats? helped infor% a ris& assess%ent >assessing the li&elihood and i%pact of potential threats?

    at the beginning of stage 1, which has been re!iewed and updated for stage 2# hree areas of

    potential threat to Open Briefings ongoing acti!ities ha!e been identified) the loss of I e+uip%ent

    or data, the loss or illness of &e" staff, and reduced inco%e and funding gaps# he following

    procedures ha!e been de!eloped to %itigate each of these three ris&s#

    Hoss of 0 equipment or #ata

    Open Briefings considerable online presence and high reliance on I %eans a loss of e+uip%ent or

    data represents a serious ris& to the organisation# o %itigate this ris&, Open Briefing uses a re%ote

    bac&-up and s"nc ser!ice, which %aintains a 80-da" !ersion histor" of files bac&ed-up off-site# Open

    Briefing staff use co%puters with surge-protected power supplies, up-to-date operating s"ste%s,

    firewalls and regularl" updated anti-!irus software# he organisational budget includes an I line to

    co!er repairs or replace%ent of co%puter e+uip%ent as necessar"# .n" te%porar" failures in

    internet connection can be o!erco%e through the use of %obile broadband#

    Hoss or illness of key staff

    he e'ecuti!e director is the dri!ing force of the organisation and his illness or incapacit" could

    render the organisation te%poraril" i%potent# o %itigate this ris&, the e'ecuti!e director %aintains

    a business continuit" %anual, which together with this regularl" updated project proposal

    contains all of the infor%ation needed to enable an indi!idual appointed b" the ad!isor" board to

    ta&e o!er and run the organisation in the e!ent of the e'ecuti!e director being unable to do so# .

    %e%ber of the ad!isor" board has access to these docu%ents and the Open Briefing files and is

    responsible for o!erseeing continuit" if the need e!er arises#

    ?e#uce# income an# fun#ing gaps

    .n" organisation reliant on grants faces the potential of reduced inco%e and funding gaps# o

    %itigate this ris&, Open Briefing will wor& towards achie!ing %ultiple and di!erse inco%e strea%s,

    with careful record &eeping and financial %onitoring identif"ing an" li&el" funding difficulties ahead

    of ti%e# Open Briefing %aintains the %ini%u% of financial and contractual co%%it%ents, allowing

    acti!ities and spending to contract in response to an" funding shortages# he e'ecuti!e director is

    also co%%itted to wor&ing unpaid or at reduced rates if necessar" in order to %aintain a le!el of

    operations during an" funding gaps# O!er ti%e, a financial reser!e will be built up in order to further

    insulate the organisation fro% te%porar" financial difficulties#

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    :+ual opportunities polic"

    Open Briefing is co%%itted to carr"ing out its acti!ities in a %anner that does not e'clude an"one

    on the basis of s&in colour, national origin, gender, age, disabilit", se'ual orientation or religious

    affiliation, and pledges to abide b" all rele!ant legislation#

    Open Briefing recognises and is wor&ing towards addressing the gender i%balance in its tea% b"considering wa"s to encourage %ore applications fro% fe%ale candidates#

    Open Briefing also recognises that as an organisation with a considerable online presence it %a"

    need to address issues arising fro% the digital di!ide, as well as consider design issues that %ight

    affect !isuall" i%paired users of its website#

    :n!iron%ental polic"

    Open Briefing recognises that its acti!ities ha!e an i%pact on the en!iron%ent and, as such, is

    co%%itted to wor&ing in an en!iron%entall" responsible %anner#

    :fforts are focussed on three &e" areas) waste, energ" and tra!el# irst, efficient rec"cling

    procedures ha!e been de!eloped and rec"cled and rec"clable %aterials are used where!er possible,

    while e!er" effort is %ade to &eep printing and paper use low# Second, procedures are in place to

    &eep energ" use down and the Open Briefing office space relies on renewable energ" and bio%ass

    heating# hird, staff tra!el and co%%uting are &ept to a %ini%u%, rel"ing where!er possible on

    online %eetings and teleconferencing#

    or all other areas, our purchasing and contracting polic" gi!es preference to airtrade, organic and

    other products and ser!ices that cause the least har% to people and planet#

    :thical polic"

    Open Briefing is co%%itted to an ethical approach in all its acti!ities and procedures# Specificall", it

    does not &nowingl" %a&e use of suppliers or ser!ices that in!est in or ha!e an" lin&s to unethical

    industries, including the ar%s trade and e'tracti!e industries#

    .s indi!iduals, we stri!e to reflect the ethical !alues of the organisation in the %anner in which we

    wor $e appl" the principles of trust, openness and dialogue in all our dealings, both a%ong

    oursel!es and with others with who% we wor

    Open Briefing guards its independence and belie!es in the principle of spea&ing truth to power# $e

    therefore a!oid sources of funding that %a" jeopardise the independence or integrit" of the

    organisation#

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