Project Design

Expert assessment methods

First… homework results

The Title:The assumption

restaurant.

Kinga Klimkiewicz Gr.Z.4.3

Product

• The main service of my project it:- cooking and serving regional Polish food.

CUSTOMERSPotential clients in my restaurant:• Official:- Gender: male - Age: 40 years old- Geography: Lublin, Poland- Income level: 7000zł - His opinion: „Finally, I can eat a good lunch break.”

Customers• Student:- Gender: female - Age: 22 years old- Geography: Lublin, Poland- Income level: 600zł - His opinion: „Eating like at grandma's house. Finally, something other than fast

foods.”• Tourist: - Gender: female - Age: 33 years old- Geography: Paris, France- Income level: 3000 EUR- Her opinion: „Cuisine differs from the French but very good.”

Customers• Pensioner:- Gender: male - Age:70 years old- Geography: Zamość, Poland- income level: 2500zł - His opinion:”It was nice to go back to the old tastes.”• Schoolboy:- Gender: male - Age:13 years old- Geography: Wrocław, Poland- Income level: 0zł - His opinion: „Here is boring. Missing fast foods and cola”

Home work for Monday

• Finish your research!!!• Find 5 opinions• Describe people and their opinions

Evaluation & choice of alternatives

Decision Making Techniques: Choosing Between Options

• Ranking• Pairwise Comparisons• Grid Analysis• The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

Ranking

• The procedure for ordering items in ascending (descending) preference for one or more selected indicators to compare

• In the case of strict ranking is not allowed to point to elements of the equivalence

• With a non-strict ranking multiple elements can occupy the same place in the ranking and receive the same rank

• This method is used when the number of options n ≤ 7 ± 2

Choose the trip of your dream

By rankingBy pairwise comparisonsBy grid analysisIs there any difference?You conclusions….

Pairwise Comparisons

• The procedure of determination of the preferences by comparing all possible pairs of objects (options)

• Results of the comparison of pairs of objects represented as a matrix

• Rank is calculating by summation of numerical representations for paired comparisons for each option

• If the comparison is made on various parameters or group of experts, for each indicator or expert the matrix of pairwise comparisons is preparing

Some possible types of numerical presentation

ji

jijiij aaif,

aa,aaif,x

0

1

ji

ji

ji

ij

aaif,aaif

,aaif,

x

0,5.0

1

ji

ji

ji

ij

aaif,aaif

,aaif,

x

0,1

2

Example of results of paired comparisons on a set of five alternatives

Options 1 2 3 4 5 Rank

1 - 0.5 0 1 1 2.5 2

2 0.5 - 1 0.5 1 3 1

3 1 0 - 0 1 2 3

4 0 0.5 1 - 0 1.5 4

5 0 0 0 1 - 1 5

j

ijx

Median comparison

• Any two elements of the set of alternatives are selected and ordered

• The third element is compared with the best of the first two, and if it is worse, with the worst, and so one find its place

• The fourth element is compared first to the median to determine left or right semi-set to further refine the location of the fourth element, etc.

Grid Analysis

• a number of good alternatives to choose from• many different factors to take into account

?????• list your options as rows on a table, and the factors

you need consider as columns• score each option/factor combination, weight this

score by the relative importance of the factor,• add these scores up to give an overall score for each

option

Grid Analysis: example

Grid Analysis: example

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

AHP: example

Effects of the project

• Commercial• Social• Ecological• Budgetary/economical• ………..

How we can estimate the effect?

• measurement is the assignment of numbers to objects

• direct and indirect measurements• what to measure, how to measure

Scale of measurement

Formally, the scale is a set of three elements <X,Φ,Y>, where•X – real object•Y – number•Φ- mapping X on Y

Nominal Scale

• Simply labels objects • Categorical data are measured on

nominal scales which merely assign labels to distinguish categories

Ordinal Scale

• Numbers are used to place objects in order • But, there is no information regarding the

differences (intervals) between points on the scale

Interval Scale

• An interval scale is a scale on which equal intervals between objects, represent equal differences

• The interval differences are meaningful• But, we can’t defend ratio relationships

• For example, the difference between 10 and 20 degrees is the same as between 80 and 90 degrees. But, we can’t say that 80 degrees is twice as hot as 40 degrees. There is no ‘true’ zero, only an ‘arbitrary’ zero

Ratio Scale

• Have a true zero point • Ratios are meaningful • Physical scales of time, length and

volume are ratio scales

Group work

Define the main effects of your projects (15 min)

Propose a method and a scale to evaluate the effects (15 min)

Discuss your results (5 min)