PROGRESS TOWARD CREATING A NATIONAL TPO PROGRAM

John Coulston

2015 National FIA User Group Meeting

April 1-2, San Antonio TX

Previous FIA User Group Recommendations

• 2013: The group liked what the TPO program is doing in the South and would like to see other regions enhance their TPO survey efforts to be more in line with the South.

Previous FIA User Group Recommendations

• 2014: Continue to annualize and nationalize the Timber Product Output program: The TPO program should use sampling techniques to ensure that all types of wood using facilities are represented and sampled.

Assigned Discussion Topics

1. Moving from periodic complete enumeration to annual sampling

2. How to better combine TPO and FIA data

3. Ideas for improving the TPO program data base

Discussion Topic 1. Moving from periodic complete enumeration to annual sampling

• Motivation• Currently FIA performs a census of pulpwood mills

annually• Census of other wood using facilities done every two

years• Biennial census leads to some inefficiency

• Loss of key contacts and corporate knowledge• Non-response varies by census• Increasing trend in non-response

• An annual sample-based approach may alleviate some of these issues.

Discussion Topic 1. Moving from periodic complete enumeration to annual sampling• User group recommendation was to examine sampling

alternatives such as sampling proportional to size (PPS).• Also maintain annual ‘population’ list of wood using

facilities.• Suggest a plan for non-response is also needed

Discussion Topic 1. Moving from periodic complete enumeration to annual sampling• Proposed PPS approach is similar to other efforts. For

example,• Economic Census of Manufacturing (ECM) develops a sampling

frame from Census Bureau's Business Register every five years• Both the Annual Survey of Manufactures and the Manufacturing

Energy Consumption Survey sample the ECM frame annual.• Currently the Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey uses a

stratified sampling approach where selection probabilities are proportional to size.

• Discussions with these groups would be informative

Discussion Topic 1. Moving from periodic complete enumeration to annual sampling• Before jumping into sampling we have the opportunity to

evaluate TPO information needs and design survey appropriately for those needs.• What are the current and potential future informational needs of

partners, clients, and stake holders?• How are these needs similar or different from the information

currently provided by TPO?• What are the relevant/needed spatial scales of the information

(Region, State, sub-State)?

Discussion Topic 2. How to better combine TPO and FIA data• Current

• Regional variation is how TPO data and FIA data are combined.• In the east, where FIA removals are available, the plot data are

used to parse total harvest into:• Total products• Logging residue• Other removals

• FIA and TPO data are also combined for analysis: e.g. wood basket analysis, supply demand, etc.

• See presentation by Todd Morgan (2014 User Group meeting) for additional examples.

Discussion Topic 2. How to better combine TPO and FIA dataFuture opportunities:• From FIA data we have removal information by

• Location (State, county), species, size class, type of harvest (SRS), approximate removal year.

• From TPO we have removal -> product information by• State/County of origin, species, year

• What are the opportunities to combine the data in the estimation process? • Model assisted estimators at broader-scales?• Model dependent estimators at finer-scales?

• These questions should be addressed along with the sample design issue.

Ideas for improving the TPO program data base

Ideas for improving the TPO program data base

• Core tables

Ideas for improving the TPO program data base

• Need to move past core tables• Improvements of the database and analytical option are

dependent on information needs.• Analytical needs may required adding ancillary data to the

database (e.g. socio economic data)• Further need to proceed with caution so that

confidentiality is maintained.• Spatial?

Some Examples

Availability Mill load

Survey Unit

Mill load on forest

Volume (cuft/ac)

0 - 8

9 - 16

17 - 24

25 - 32

33 - 40

41 - 48

49 - 56

57 - 64

65 - 72

Moving forward:• This is an opportunity to re-design TPO efforts based on current

and potential future information needs.• Start with information needs• Identify appropriate sampling design and estimators to meet those

needs• Develop analytical framework for online data delivery and analysis

• We will host a workshop with key partners to evaluate information and analytical needs against TPO program available information and provide recommendations for TPO data.

• Target late summer • Would like to hear from “partners” regarding interest. • But…. Normal production (mill survey, utilization) must continue

while moving forward

“And” items• Harvested Wood Products carbon storage and stock change.

• Key retirement at Forest Products Center.• National group will continue the HWP work started by Ken Skog

• Timber availability and harvest probability modeling• Continued Collaboration with (SOFAC-NCSU, CenRADS-VA Tech,

USFS RPA scientists)• Land use change and population dynamics are an important

component.

• Non-timber forest product survey (Led by Jim Chamberlain SRS-FIA)

• Continue to work with volume/biomass equation team and university partners.

• Utilization and logging equipment