profiling working group march 13, 20071 pwg update report by ernie podraza of reliant energy ercot...

March 13, 20071

Profiling Working GroupProfiling Working Group

PWG Update Report

By

Ernie Podrazaof Reliant Energy

ERCOT PWG Chair

for

COPS Meeting

March 13, 2007

March 13, 20072


March 13, 20073


2007 Goals Update1 Implement new Version 2 ERCOT Profiles. On Schedule.

2 LRS sample selection round two. Designed.

3 New Oil & Gas Profile – BUSOGFLT. TAC on March 8.

4 2007 Annual Validation. LPGRR020 Resolution Target 99%.

5 Evaluate the methodology for profile scaling factors (per UFETF Nov. 16)

6 Review 2004, 2005 & 2006 UFE Analysis.

7 Examine ways to accommodate extreme events in Settlement process.

8 Establish Long Term Strategy of Load Profiles including refresh timeline

9 IDR Analysis – 2 issues outstanding from original analysis.

10 Review if having more weather stations adds accuracy

11 Review if the weighting of weather stations is appropriate

March 13, 20074


2007 Goals Update12 Review IDR installation procedure language to ensure compliance

13 Does having 2 decimals on load profiles significantly affect settlement

14 Review LPG language on list based profiles and universality

15 PUCT Docket responses to demand response or AMR rule, etc.

16 Set up area on PWG web page for key documents

17 Annual Review of load profiles as specified in market language

18 Analysis to identify new profiles as specified in market language

19 Update the TOU procedures on the Load Profiling web site

20 Investigate ways to improve Business Profile ID assignments

21 Review analysis of DLC demonstration programs. PRR draft pending.

22 Review Protocol and LPG language for appropriateness for large Opt-in Entity

March 13, 20075


2007 Annual Validation Preview

6

2002 Annual Validation• Not performed due to 2001 Initial Validation still in progress

2003 Annual Validation• 31% - 1.5 million out of 4.9 million ESIIDs

2004 Annual Validation• 19% - 1.0 million out of 5.4 million ESIIDs• Annual Validation suspended to allow time to improve assignment process

2005 Annual Validation • 11% - 0.6 million out of 5.5 million ESIIDs• Residential survey administered and new assignment algorithm created• 360,000 actually submitted (agreed with new algorithm)

2006 Annual Validation• 16% - 0.9 million out of 5.5 million ESIIDs• All ESIIDs assigned with new algorithm

2007 Annual Validation (Projected)• 5% - 0.3 million out of 5.8 million ESIIDs• Fine tuned algorithm based on new load profile models

2008 Annual Validation (Projected)• 3% - 0.2 million out of 5.8 million ESIIDs

History of Residential Annual Validation

March 13, 20077


March 13, 20078


9

Load Research Round 2 Sample Update

10


Round 1 sample points that have migrated to be removed

Round 2 sample size 9,000 Iterative sample allocation to minimize

dollar (MWh * MCPE) estimation error Minimum sample size per Profile Type /

Weather Zone combination will be 120 Maximum sample size for Business 400,

Residential 600 Known Oil & Gas ESIIDs excluded from

sample

11


Primary voltage ESIIDs will be sampled as appropriate Initial analysis indicates 4 cells with 40 sample points

each (160 total) Complete Precision Analysis available at

http://www.ercot.com/meetings/pwg/keydocs/2007/0227/LRS_Precision_Round_2_Analysis_PWG_Feb_27_.ppt

Detailed sample design/selection complete, lists provided to TDSPs by end of March

Recorder installations complete by Dec. 2007

12

Load Research Round 2 Sample Design

BUSHILF_COAST 120 BUSNODEM_COAST 120BUSHILF_EAST 120 BUSNODEM_EAST 120BUSHILF_FWEST 120 BUSNODEM_FWEST 120BUSHILF_NCENT 120 BUSNODEM_NCENT 120BUSHILF_NORTH 120 BUSNODEM_NORTH 120BUSHILF_SCENT 120 BUSNODEM_SCENT 120BUSHILF_SOUTH 120 BUSNODEM_SOUTH 120BUSHILF_WEST 120 BUSNODEM_WEST 120BUSMEDLF_COAST 400 RESHIWR_COAST 560BUSMEDLF_EAST 120 RESHIWR_EAST 120BUSMEDLF_FWEST 120 RESHIWR_FWEST 120BUSMEDLF_NCENT 400 RESHIWR_NCENT 600BUSMEDLF_NORTH 120 RESHIWR_NORTH 120BUSMEDLF_SCENT 120 RESHIWR_SCENT 120BUSMEDLF_SOUTH 180 RESHIWR_SOUTH 360BUSMEDLF_WEST 120 RESHIWR_WEST 120BUSLOLF_COAST 300 RESLOWR_COAST 600BUSLOLF_EAST 120 RESLOWR_EAST 120BUSLOLF_FWEST 120 RESLOWR_FWEST 120BUSLOLF_NCENT 400 RESLOWR_NCENT 600BUSLOLF_NORTH 120 RESLOWR_NORTH 120BUSLOLF_SCENT 120 RESLOWR_SCENT 120BUSLOLF_SOUTH 120 RESLOWR_SOUTH 160BUSLOLF_WEST 120 RESLOWR_WEST 120

Sample Size 9000

13

Load Research Rule

PUC Rule §25.131, “Load Profiling and Load Research”

Assigns Load Research Sample Design responsibility to ERCOTStakeholder input has been sought and consideredStakeholder approval process not specified

March 13, 200714


New ERCOT Load Profile Update

Implementation Date

5/15/2007

15

SIRs in Process• SIR 10920 -- Transition to new load profiles, Option 3M.

• P-test almost complete • I-test to start week of March 5th • Proceeding according to schedule

• SIR 11236 -- Create folders for posting of Auxiliary backcasts to TML and ercot.com, and manually populate.

• Task now being performed as maintenance—no longer a SIR• Scheduled to be completed by Wednesday, March 14th

• SIR 11240 -- Automated posting of Auxiliary backcasts to TML and ercot.com.

• Analysis is underway• To be completed prior to May 15th

March 13, 2007 16

-- Auxiliary Backcasted Load Profiles --What will postings look like?

17

Introduction• New Load Profile models are scheduled to be

implemented on May 15, 2007.

• Profile transition plan Option 3M allows for a mixture of old and new profiles to be used in settlement.

• Auxiliary backcasted load profiles (from new models) are scheduled to start posting to the TML and ercot.com on March 14, 2007.

• A Market Notice will be sent out 7 to 10 days before actual posting begins.

18

Introduction• For trade date 05/15/07 onward, profiles

generated from new models will be posted in the ‘primary’ folder and profiles from old models in the ‘auxiliary’ folder.

• Profiles from old models would be posted in auxiliary folder for 60 days and archived on ercot.com afterward.

19

ext.(03-17-2007 15:48:23 ).Bcst03162007_aux.csv ext.

(03-16-2007 15:47:43 ).Bcst03152007_aux.csv ext.(03-

15-2007 15:47:48 ).Bcst03142007_aux.csv ext.(03-14-

2007 15:48:23 ).Bcst03132007_aux.csv

Auxiliary Backcasted Profiles ExtractAuxiliary Backcasted Profiles Extract

new folder

Auxiliary Backcasted Load Profiles

20

Auxiliary Backcasted Load Profiles

Auxiliary Backcasted Load Profiles new link

20070317.154823.Bcst03162007_aux.csv 20070316.154743.Bcst03152007_aux.csv 20070315.154748.Bcst03142007_aux.csv 20070314.154823.Bcst03132007_aux.csv

Auxiliary Backcasted Profiles Extract

March 13, 200721


LPGRR018Default Residential Profile Segment

and Clean Up of Valid Profile IDs Tab

A.

A.

assign LOWR

COAST default = LOWR NORTH default = HIWR EAST default = HIWR SCENT default = HIWR FWEST default = LOWR SOUTH default = HIWR NCENT default = HIWR WEST default = HIWR

B.

Assign the default Profile Segment for the initial assignment of all new Residential ESI IDs as directed below. Please refer to the Load Profiling Guide for Opt-In and transition assignments.

For Annual Validation, assign the applicable Profile Segment for each ESI ID based on the steps below. Because the steps below are not mutually exclusive, it is necessary to step through each of the following in the order listed, for each ESI ID, until an applicable case is found.

If Weather Zone = COAST or if Weather Zone = FWEST then

Usage Time Period: J anuary 2002 through May 2006 meter reading periods for all reads.

II. Residential (RES)

Assign the LOWR Profile Segment for the initial assignment of all new Residential ESI IDs. Please refer to the Load Profiling Guide for Opt-in and transition assignments.

else assign HIWR.

March 13, 200722


Default Residential Profile Segment and

Clean Up of Valid Profile IDs Tab

VOTEPWG requests the following motion:

That COPS recommend to the TAC approval of LPGRR018

March 13, 200723


Questions?

PWG meets on the fourth Tuesday of the Month thru Oct.

profiling working group march 13, 20071 pwg update report by ernie podraza of reliant energy ercot...

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