professor david leonard, sussex development lecuture, feb 2012
TRANSCRIPT
Finding Order in Countries with Weak States: The Dilemma of the Somali Polities
David K. LeonardGovernance Team
IDS
The Questions
• The former Somalia has not had an effective state since 1991.
• What are the causes and consequences of this statelessness?
• How can an acceptable level of human security and order be found in these circumstances?
Eastern Africa
The Somali Polities Under Colonialism,
• Somalis are a distinct ethnic group, with their own language and culture.
• Largely pastoralist• Historically stateless• British Somaliland and (Italian) Somalia• (French) Djibouti• Significant numbers in Ethiopia (Ogaden) &
Kenya (North-east Province)
Somali Territories
Current Somali Polities
• Djibouti (Somali dominated)• Somaliland (reasserted indep in 1991)• Transitional Federal Government– Mogadishu– Puntland (autonomous)– Mudug (autonomous)
• Islamist (Kismayu and south-central)• Ethiopian Region V and Kenyan North-east
Livelihoods Under Statelessness
• Livestock production and trade OK• Fishing hurt by EU toxic dumping• Inter-riverine crop production hurt and thus
famine in south• Service infrastructure hurt as tax base is weak• Overall – probably better in north than under
Barre’s state
Governance without States?
• Order maintained by clan-based diya-paying groups of ca. 100 adult males
• Tit-for-tat• Governance is highly egalitarian• But now also distorted by military and
commercial patrons– Business Militias not v.v.
• Contract enforcement through sharia courts
Location of Major Clan Families in 1950s
Islam: Not Whether but What Type
• A good business partner is a good Muslim• All Sunnis, but in south– Sufis Ahlu Sunna Waljama'a – Wahabis al-Shabab
Failure of State-building from Above
• Continuous international efforts since 1991 to recreate the Somalia state
• All based on elite bargains and all have failed• Most recent is Transitional Federal Government
(2004)• Ethiopian incursion of 2006 ended in failure and
withdrawal• African Union stalled under Burundi & Uganda• Kenyan incursion of south?
Successful Governance from the Bottom
• Somaliland – elders elder delegates in +4 month negotiations (1991-1993)
• Puntland – in +3 month negotiations (1998) supported by militia leadership
• SSC (Sool, Sanaag and Cayn) – looks 2 ways• Galmudug -- Ahlu Sunna Waljama'a & Hawiye
clan• Kismayu and south – al Shabaab/ Hizbul Islam
Encouraging Governance
• Interpeace (WSP); Bryden, Menkhaus• From the bottom• Without worrying about UN statehood, size or
regularity• Encouraging through UN trust fund aid to
whatever is working
Challenges -- Piracy
• Puntland• Eyl but• Money & power• Don’t want to force into Islamist hands• More effective NATO corridors
Challenges – Terrorism in Kenya
• Legitimate Kenyan interests• Now supported by Ethiopia (& US)• But can it succeed or will it exacerbate?• Negotiations inhibited by unwillingness to deal
with Islamist polities or by lack of internal control?
• Counter-attacks by drone?