Prof. Božidar TepešFaculty of Teacher Education, University of

ZagrebMr. Ivan Mijić

Diplomatic Academy, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration, Croatia

Krunoslav TepešCity Office for Transport Planning, City of

Zagreb

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TWO STATISTICAL MODELS ON EUROPEAN AND CROATIAN INFORMATION SOCIETY

Prof. Božidar TepešFaculty of Teacher Education, University of ZagrebMr. Ivan MijićDiplomatic Academy, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration, CroatiaKrunoslav TepešCity Office for Transport Planning, City of Zagreb

Two statistical models on European and Croatian information society

Information societyBenchmark indicatorsFactor analysisCausal modelSome new resultsConclusion

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Information societyFrom statistical point of view, Information society

(IS) is connected with Information and communication technology (ICT).

Organisation for economic and co-operation and development (OECD) presented conceptual model of IS with elements:ICT supply (producers and production ICT goods and

services)ICT demand (users and uses, households, individuals

and businesses)ICT infrastructure (investments and services)ICT products and content (price, quality and flows of

information) ICT demand and ICT infrastructure as part of IS

are electronic commerce (e-commerce) 3

Benchmark indicatorsEU Commission (2002) presented the eEurope 2005 Action Plan.

This provides policy actions for European institutions and member states to accelerate the development of the IS in Europe.

Commission proposes fourteen policy indicators and twenty two supplementary indicators.

For candidate countries indicators are benchmarks indicators.Eight basic benchmarks were used in this article:

Percentage of households or individuals having access to the Internet at home (A1)

Percentage of individuals regularly using the Internet (A2) Percentage of persons employed using computers connected to the Internet

(B1) Number of basic public services fully available6 on-line (D1) Percentage of population using Internet to seek health (F1) Percentage of enterprises total turnover from e-commerce (G1) Percentage of enterprises with broadband access (J1) Percentage of households or individuals with broadband access (J2)

Eurostat has benchmarks data for EU countries.Central bureau of statistics of Croatia and IDC Adriatics have

benchmarks data for Croatia. 4

Factor analysis

From Eurostat statistics, we are using eight measured variables (benchmarks indicators) for twenty seven EU countries for six years.

Using statistical software Statistica first factor or principle component describe 75%¸of total variance of all measured variables.

We named this first factor Intensity of IS (Y). The relation between first factor and measured variables is:

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2916,01834,01879,01871,0

1756,01886,02933,01947,0

JJGF

DBAAY

Intensity of IS

Development of IS(Factor analysis)

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Year

Inte

ns

ity

of

IS

(Fir

st

fac

tor)

United Kingdom

France

Germany

Croatia

Romania

Bulgaria

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Causal structure

We are looking for partial correlation coefficients between two measured variables and all others.

Six partial coefficients in Table 1. are absolutely greater than 0.3

Causal structure are in Picture 1.

AA11

A2A2 B1B1 D1D1 F1F1 G1G1 J1J1 J2J2

A1A1 0.50.511

- 0.80- 0.80

A2A2 0.30.311

0.30.355

B1B1

D1D1 0.400.40

F1F1

G1G1

J1J1 0.470.47

J2J2

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Causal modelFor causal model we are looking for causal V-

structure ACB when partial correlation coefficients are |AB.C|>0.3.

V-structure, representing two causes A and B have a common effect C, act the opposite way.

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Some new results

Development of IS (FA and CM)

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

Yare

Inte

nsi

ty o

f IS UK

F

D

H-FA

R

B

H-CM

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Conclusion

Our research of IS form statistical point of view is statistical modeling of IS.

Model show causal structure of IS and the most important goals for development of IS.

We can see position of Croatia in development of IS or knowledge society.

Our model have only eight measured variables, and more realistic model of IS must have more variables. At the same time, period of research was only four year for Croatia.

Development of IS is connected with globalization and model of IS must include more countries than EU countries.

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Thank you for your attention!