Hans R. HerrenPresident www.millennium-institute.org

President www.biovision.ch Co-Chair IAASTD www.agassessment.org

Coordinator UNEP GER Agriculture Chapter

Swedish Society for Nature Conservation (SSNC)

Royal Swedish Academy for Forestry and Agriculture, 8 September 2011

Productivity, environment, climate and food security –

how can agriculture meet the challenges?

Productivity, environment, climate and food security –

how can agriculture meet the challenges?

…by developing and implementing new policies

informed by the key findings and options for action

emanating from the IAASTD report

“Agriculture at a Crossroads”

K

The IAASTD Reports (www.agassessment.org)

Co-Chairs: Hans R Herren & Judy WhakunguDirector: Bob Watson

Multi-stakeholder: 400 authors, 52 countries

Multi-disciplinary

Multi-locational: Global / sub-Global Reports

IAASTD Development and Sustainability Goals (=MDG =

the 4 main areas where agriculture needs to transition):

• Eradicating of Hunger and Poverty• Improving Rural Livelihoods• Improving Nutrition and Human Health• Facilitating Environmentally, Socially, Equitable and

Economically Sustainable Development

…under the challenges of:

• Climate Change• Population and Demand Growth• Growing inequity• Shrinking Natural Resources / Energy

The IAASTD

David Tilman et al. Science 2001

Agriculture a main problem: the green revolution

Bases of green revolution is unsustainable (E-S-E)

Source: Stern Review

Understanding the consequences: Climate change

Understanding the consequences: CC and water / temperature stresses

-50% -15%0%

+35%+15%2080

Understanding the consequences: overproduction, conversion and wastage

Main conclusions of the IAASTD

“a fundamental shift in AKST and the linked agri-food system policies, institutions, capacity development and investments”

Paradigm change: Transition to sustainable / organic /ecological agri - culture

i.e., addresses multifunctionality and resilience

needs of the small-scale and family farms (social & economic: equity issue, farmer status, land ownership, empowerment, women), quality job creation;

• systemic and holistic approach (basic ecological principles); treat cause not symptoms; is part of the solution to hunger, poverty, health, CC

Challenges and options for action (IAASTD NAE)

IAASTD Agriculture at a Crossroads 2009“Agriculture for Development” (WDR 08, World Bank)

“The Environmental Food Crisis” 2009(UNEP)

“A Viable Food Future” 2010 (The Development Fund)

“Innovations that Nourish the Planet”(SOW 11, World Watch Institute)

“Securing Future Food” 2010 (UK Food Group)

“The future of food and Farming”2011 (UK Foresight)

“Green Economy Report” 2011(UNEP)

“Save and Grow” FAO 2011

Agriculture the main solution: Multifunctionality paradigm for sustainable development

sustainable

viable

livableequitable

SustainableUn-sustainable

Low

pro

ducti

vity

Hig

h p

rodu

ctivi

tyAgriculture the main solution: ..via a transition to sustainable, organic, agroecological, resilient, equitable agriculture

Agroecology and Sustainable Development

Conventional System Conversion Agroecology

Socio-economics

Cultural

Legislation (policies)

Solidarius certification

Fair market Commercialization

Extension Methodologies

Alternative inputs Participatory research

Farmer to farmer network

Institutional partnerships

Environmental

Slide courtesy M. Altieri

Agroecology is the study of the interactions between plants, animals, humans and the environment within agricultural systems. Consequently, agroecology is inherently multidisciplinary, including factors from agronomy, ecology, sociology and economics. In this case, the “-ecology” portion of "agroecology is defined broadly to include social, cultural, and economic contexts as well (Dalgaard et al.2003)

Agroecology

Organic Conventional

The Green way ahead: Organic agriculture (+resilience)

In 1995 –drought year

Green way ahead: ……..using the gifts of nature, habitat management

It isimperative toput theanimals backon farm:sanitation,health, carbon cycle,sustainability

The Green way ahead: Animals on farm

The Green way ahead: SRI: System of rice (and other crops) intensification

Green way ahead: …no chemicals? more numbers 1:242 cost:benefits

Green way ahead: Biotechnology and genetic engineering

Green way ahead: genetic engineering: less choices, diversity..

David Quist, 2010 pers com

Encouraging a wider genetic base in agriculture…trees, fruits, grains, vegetables, lost crops, animals

for nutrition, cultural diversity, incomes, pest control, resilience to climate change

The Green way ahead: More diversity (plants and animals)

The Green way ahead: Appropriate mechanization

• Improve and expand extension services (ICT)

• Introduce capacity building (ICT)

• Agriculture is very localized = local solutions

Example: Biovision’s Farmer Communication Program

Green way ahead: is knowledge intensive

Global investments across sectors (1% and 2% of GDP); 0.2% and 0.32% of GDP invested in AG and fisheries (50-50).- Pre harvest losses (training activities and effective pesticide (emphasis on natural/bio products) use)- Ag management practices (costs to transition from till to no till agriculture, training, access to small mechanization)- R&D (research on crop improvement, soil science and agronomy, appropriate mechanization, and more)- Food processing (better storage and processing in rural areas)

In addition, need to invest in the “enabling conditions” (infrastructure, institutions, governance)

The forward looking scenarios: Analysis and investments

Global Warming

Energy Sector

Human Population

Food Production

Fresh Water

Migration

Health Catastrophes

Land Loss & Flooding

PlantCalories

MeatCalories

PlantConsumption

MeatConsumption

MeatProduction

PlantProduction

SoilCapacity Soil Nutient

ConsumptionSoil NutrientProductioin

Plant Calories forMeat Production

S

S

HumanPopulation

HumanBirths

HumanDeaths

Plant Calories forHuman Use

S

S

Calories perCapita

O

S

Life SustainingCalories per Capita

CalorieGapHabitat

Conversion

Acres inAgriculture

O

S

S

S

S

S

S

FertilizerDemand

S

S

O

Petroleum Use forFertilizer

S

S ToxicResidue

S

O

R

OPopulation

Density

Migration

Pursuit of 1st WorldFood Mix

Exposure to a HigherStandard of Living

MethaneProduction

S

S

S

S

S

S

WaterDemand

S

FaminesO

S

RB

B

S

Irrigation

SoilSalinization

S

S

O

S

BiofuelsProduction

Land Loss

GlobalTemperature

Variation in RainfallPattern

Droughts

S

S

S

O

O

O

The forward looking scenarios: Its all connected…….system dynamics

Investing between 0.1% and 0.16% of total GDP ($83-$141 Billion) / yearAgriculture in a Green Economy (UNEP Report – 2011)

The way aheadRio+20

What are the optionswhen “Business as usual” is not an option?

When is: NOW

We have the key findings and options for action from the IAASTD report series…

Now is time to implement themunderstand and remove the roadblocks, expand the multistakeholder process and link it to other policy relevant processes (CFS, etc)

The way ahead

You cannot solve the problem with the same kind of thinking that created the problem. Albert Einstein

Thank youhansrherren@mac.com