Probability

Learn to use informal measures of probability.

Any activity involving chance, such as the roll of a die, is an ______________. The result of an experiment is an ______________. An ___________ is a set of one or more outcomes.

Events that have the same probability are ___________likely. _____________ is the measure of how likely an event is to occur. The more likely an event is to occur, the higher its probability. The less likely an event is to occur, the lower its probability.

A bag contains circular chips that are the same size and weight. There are 8 purple chips, 4 pink chips, 8 white chips, and 2 blue chips in the bag.

A. Would you be more likely to pull a purple chip or a blue chip from the bag?

Since there are more purple chips than blue chips in the bag, it is ________________you would pull a purple chip.

B. Would you be more likely to pull a white chip or a purple chip from the bag?Since the number of white chips equals the number of purple chips in the bag, it is just as likely that you would pull a white chip as a purple from the bag. The events are __________________.

Insert Lesson Title HereA bag contains 16 marbles that are similar in weight and size. There are 8 blue marbles, 4 red marbles, 2 white marbles, and 2 yellow marbles in the bag.

A. Would you be more likely to pull a white or a yellow marble from the bag?

Since there are an equal number of white marbles and yellow marbles, it is just as likely that you would pull a white marble as a yellow marble. The events are ________________________.

B. Would you be more likely to pull out a yellow marble or a red marble?

Since there are more red marbles than yellow marbles, it is ________________________that you would pull a red marble than a yellow marble.

Every event is either impossible, certain, or somewherebetween these extremes. An event is mathematically_____________ if it can never happen and mathematically __________ if it will always happen. If an event is as likely as not, the probability that it will happen is the same as the probability that it will not happen.

Impossible Unlikely Likely CertainAs likely as not

The Probability Line

Determine whether each event is impossible, unlikely, as likely as not, likely, or certain.

A. Tina has a soccer game on Saturday. How likely is it that she is at home all day on Saturday?

Tina could have gotten sick on Saturday morning and stayed home. However, it is _____________ that she is at home on Saturday.

Impossible Unlikely Likely CertainAs likely as not

Determine whether each event is impossible, unlikely, as likely as not, likely, or certain.

B. Jason is canoeing on the river. How likely is it that he is shopping at the mall with Travis right now?

It is ___________ that Jason is shopping with Travis.

Impossible Unlikely Likely CertainAs likely as not

Determine whether each event is impossible, unlikely, as likely as not, likely, or certain.

C. Crystal is running with her mother. Her mother is in the park. How likely is it that Crystal is at the park?

It is ______________ that Crystal is running at the park.

Impossible Unlikely Likely CertainAs likely as not

Determine whether each event is impossible, unlikely, as likely as not, likely, or certain.

D. There are 12 black and 12 red checkers in a box. How likely is it that you will randomly draw a red checker?

Since the number of black checkers equals the number of red checkers, it is ______________________ that you will draw a red checker.

Impossible Unlikely Likely CertainAs likely as not

Insert Lesson Title Here

Determine whether each event is impossible, unlikely, as likely as not, likely, or certain.

A. The math class has a test each Friday. Today is Friday. How likely is it that the math class will be having a test today?

It is _______________ that the math class will have a test today.

Impossible Unlikely Likely CertainAs likely as not

Insert Lesson Title Here

Determine whether each event is impossible, unlikely, as likely as not, likely, or certain.

B. Gerald has never played two tennis matches in one day. He already played one match today. How likely is it that he will play another match?

Since Gerald has never played two tennis matches in one day, it is __________________ that he will play another match today.

Impossible Unlikely Likely CertainAs likely as not

Insert Lesson Title Here

Determine whether each event is impossible, unlikely, as likely as not, likely, or certain.

C. There are five 2’s and five 3’s in a set of 10 cards. If you draw a card, how likely is it that you will randomly draw a 3?

Since the number of 2’s equals the number of 3’s, it is ________________________ that you will draw a 3.

Impossible Unlikely Likely CertainAs likely as not