probability density functions and the normal distribution€¦ · probability density functions and...
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Probability Density Functions and the Normal Distribution
Quantitative Understanding in Biology, 1.2
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1. Discrete Probability Distributions
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1.1. The Binomial Distribution
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You’ve decided to flip a coin. What’s the probability the coin will come up heads? Tails? What about heads 10 times in a row? What about heads, then, tails, then head again?
Question:
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Proposition:
You don’t need to flip any coins. If your coin is fair, coin flips follow the binomial distribution.
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A probability distribution function is a function that relates an event to
the probability of that event.
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If the events are discrete (i.e. they correspond to a set of specific numbers or specific “states”), we describe it with
a probability mass function.
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p x( ) =
x = x1x = x2!
x = xn
p1p2!pn
⎧
⎨
⎪⎪
⎩
⎪⎪
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p x( ) ≥ 0
pii=1
n
∑ = 1
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[R Example]
To be added to notes. See code on next slide.
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# ROLL A FAIR 6-SIDED DIE sample(1:6, 4, replace=TRUE)
# ROLL AN UNFAIR 5-SIDED DIE sample(1:5, 4, replace=TRUE, prob=c(0.1, 0.3, 0.4, 0.05, 0.05))
# SAMPLE FROM A SET OF COLORS sample(c("red", "blue", "green", "white", "black"), 4,
replace=TRUE, prob=c(0.1, 0.3, 0.4, 0.05, 0.05))
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Proposition:
You don’t need to flip any coins. If your coin is fair, coin flips follow the binomial distribution.
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p x( ) = x = success psuccessx = failure 1− psuccess
⎧⎨⎪
⎩⎪
The Binomial Distribution
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p x( ) = x = heads 0.5x = tails 0.5
⎧⎨⎩
The Fair Coin
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What about multiple coin flips?
Question:
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If you are fairly flipping a fair coin, each coin flip is independent and identically distributed, also known
as iid.
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p heads,heads,tails( ) = p heads( ) p heads( ) p tails( )
Independent Fair Coin Flips
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p # flips = n( ) = 0.5n
Independent Fair Coin Flips
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When you sample a binomial distribution multiple times, you are
performing a Bernoulli trial.
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We can perform Bernoulli trials in R
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[R Example]
See notes.
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Often it is useful to calculate cumulative probabilities; for
example, the probability of 7 or more heads when you flip 10 coins.
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P ≤ # successes, # trials( ) = p successes = i,trials = # trials( )i=0
# successes
∑P ≥ # successes, # trials( ) = 1− P ≤ # successes, # trials( )
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[R Example]
See notes.
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1.2. The Poisson Distribution
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[R Example]
See notes.
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The Poisson distribution describes the probability of a certain number of events occurring within a given
time interval.
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p # events = k( ) = λ ke−λ
k!
The Poisson Distribution
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1.3. The Geometric Distribution
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You flipped heads. How many tails will you flip before you flip heads
again? The Geometric distribution describes the probability of a given “waiting time” between successes.
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p wait = k( ) = psuccess 1− psuccess( )k
The Geometric Distribution
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[R Example]
See notes.
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1.3. Uniform Distributions
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p x( ) = 1n
The Uniform Distribution
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p x( ) = 1n
The Uniform Distribution
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2. Continuous Probability Distributions
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If the events correspond to real numbers, we describe it with a
probability density function.
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f x( ) ≥ 0f x( )
−∞
∞
∫ dx = 1
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2.1. The Uniform Distribution
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The Uniform distribution defines an interval in which the probability
density is uniform. Outside of this interval, the probability is 0.
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f x( ) =x < a
a ≤ x ≤ bx > b
01
b − a0
⎧
⎨⎪⎪
⎩⎪⎪
The Uniform Distribution
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[R Example]
See notes.
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2.2. The Exponential Distribution
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f x( ) = λe−λx
The Exponential Distribution
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[R Example]
See notes.
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2.3. The Normal Distribution
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f x( ) = e−x−µ( )2σ 2
2
σ 2π
The Normal Distribution
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[R Example]
See notes.
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3. Central Limit Theorem
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If you measure the mean of a distribution many, many times,
those means will tend to become normally distributed.
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Central Limit Theorem implies: 1. If you sample enough, your
estimate of the mean will converge to the true mean.
2. If your measurement is the average of many independent
processes, it will tend to be normally distributed.
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Central Limit Theorem implies: 1. If you sample enough, your
estimate of the mean will converge to the true mean.
2. If your measurement is the average of many independent
processes, it will tend to be normally distributed.
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Central Limit Theorem implies: 1. If you sample enough, your
estimate of the mean will converge to the true mean.
2. If your measurement is the average of many independent
processes, it will tend to be normally distributed.
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Question:
So you have some data. What should I do with it?
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Step 1. Test for normality.
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Step 1.1. Look at your data.
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One of the easiest ways to “look at your data” is to make a Q-Q plot.
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[R Example]
See notes.
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Step 1.2. Do a statistical test.
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In the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, you estimate the probability that your data comes from the normal
distribution from the distance between the two cumulative
distribution functions.
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[R Example #8]
See notes.
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Homework: Generate Q-Q plots