BY : MUHAMMAD ARSALAN QURESHI

PROBABILITY

Probability can be defined as

’’the extent to which something is likely to happen’’

In Matematics & Statistics

Probability can be defined as

‘’the extent to which an event is likely to occur…. measured by the ratio of the favourable cases to the

whole number of cases possible’’

PROBABILITY

PROBABILITY

Probability is the chance that something will happen -how likely it is that some event will happen.

Sometimes you can measure a probability with a number like "10% chance of rain", or you can use words such as impossible, unlikely, possible, even chance, likely and certain.

Example: "It is unlikely to rain tomorrow".

PROBABILITY

Classification of Probability

Classical Probability(The Probability of certain events is already known or the resulting probabilities are definitive)

Empirical Probability(Based on past experience)

Subjective Probability(…is assigned to an event based on whatever evidence is available)

PROBABILITY

In Business

Probability is used in calculation of long term gains

& loses and also for many other business related works

Probability Applications in Business

Probability is very helpful for Decision making

Conducting an experiment or sample test provides an outcome that can be used to

compute the chance of events occuring in the future

Probability Applications in Business

Probability in Manufacturing

Manufacturing Business can use Probability to determine the cost-benefit ratio

In other instances , manufacturing firms use probability to determine the possiblity of

financial sucess

Probability Applications in Business

8-11

Probability can also be use to create

Scnerio Analysis

Risk Evaluation

Sales Forecasting

Probability Applications in Business

Case Study Organization

National Bank of Pakistan

Vision

Mission

National Bank of Pakistan (the Bank) was established on November 9, 1949 under the National Bank of Pakistan Ordinance, 1949 in order to cope with the crisis conditions which were developed after trade deadlock with India and devaluation of Indian Rupee in 1949.

To be recognized as a leader and a brand synonomous with trust

Instutionalizing a merit & performance culture , creating a distinctive brand identity, Best international practices.

The Probability Program supports research on the theory and applications of probability.

In NBP include discrete probability, stochastic processes, limit theory, In NBP interacting particle systems, stochastic differential and partial differential equations, and Markov processes.

Research in probability which involves applications to other areas of science and engineering is especially encouraged

Nestle PakistanProbability Applications in NBP

Products

In NBP more then is a risk advisory firm which provides Basel II compliant risk management solutions and consulting.

As part of its practice, Alchemy holds both,domestic and international training workshops for industry executives on the most pressing issues of the time.

These workshops enjoy extensive participation and over the years have included 1000 plus regulators, senior banking and treasury professionals from institutions in Bangkok, Singapore, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and UAE.

Probability Applications in NBP

SWOT Analysis

Strengths

Brand image of National Bank of Pakistan

Computerized networking

Focus on expanding Business worldwide

Organizational Culture

Stratigic Management

Weeknesses

Monitoring & control of Branches

Exposure & Experience of the staff

Less attention to the rural Department

Reorganizing effort in NBP

Starting retail Bnking

To improve the motivation of staff a merut based culture

Opportunities

Threats

Strong competitors

Lack of innovation