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Barcelona
Probabilistic seismic risk assessment using
CRISIS2015 & USERISK2015. Application to
buildings of Barcelona, Spain.
Armando Aguilar1,2, Josep de la Puente1, Lluis Pujades3, Alex
H. Barbat3, Mario Ordaz4, Nieves Lantada3, Amelia Campos5,
Alejandro García2, Alejandro Córdova2, Sergio N. González2.
www.bsc.es
1 CASE department BSC2 University of Veracruz3 UPC4 UNAM5 Private consultant
Everybody
can
imagine
an ideal
world
Nasa
Earthquakes can
occur in the
place where the
buildings are
located
Buildings are
100% earthquake
resistant
Possibility
of damage in
buildings due to
earthquakes = 0
Ideal world A
Risk occurs at the intersection of hazard and vulnerability
(for everybody except for the experts in earthquake
engineering)
Therefore, seismic
vulnerability = 0.
Seismic risk of
buildings = 0
Buildings are not
100% earthquake
resistant
Seismic risk of buildings = 0
Ideal world B(for everybody except for the experts in seismology )
Seismic
Vulnerability
of the buildings
≠ 0
Earthquakes can
not occur in the
place where the
buildings are
located
Possibility of
damage in
buildings due to
earthquakes
= 0
Ideal world C
A world without economists and
politicians
There are
earthquakes.
Possibility that
earthquakes can
occur
≠ 0
Buildings are not
100% earthquake
resistant
Possibility of
damage in
buildings due
to earthquakes
≠ 0
Real world
Unfortunately, also there are politicians and economists
In the real world there is much work for the
seismologists and engineers.
Seismic vulnerability
of buildings ≠ 0
Examples of earthquakes that triggered damage
* USGS
Damage in Japan Damage in Lorca, Spain
Japan (11/03/2011)
Mw=9.0*
28 050 people lost their
lives
(earthquake and tsunami)
Spain(11/05/2011)
Mw=5.1*
10 people lost
their lives
Google Earth-USGS, 2011 Google Earth-USGS,
2011
Inappropriate practices of
construction
National
Palace of
Haiti
BEFORE
AFTER
Earthquake HaitiMw=7.0
12/01/2010
222, 570 people lost their lives
Neighbors buildings in Puerto Príncipe
525 people lost
their lives
Earthquake Chile
Mw=8.827/02/2010
September 19, 1985
7:19 a.m.
Earthquake
Magnitude
ML=8.1
10 000 people lost their lives, mainly
in Mexico City
About 400 km from the origin of
the earthquake to Mexico city.
Ground motion
The ground motions have different origins; however the ground motions that usually
produced damage in buildings are due to earthquakes.
Hypocenter
Epicenter
Fortunately, every day we know more about
earthquakes
hypocenterEarthquake
We know where usually the earthquakes occur
Epicenters 1900-2009 (Pagani, M. et al, 2011)
95% of earthquakes occur in the interaction of the limits of the tectonic plates.
But by the moment we cannot predict with
certainty:
Where will occur the next earthquake
By the moment we cannot predict with
certainty:
Which characteristics will have the next
earthquake
By the moment we cannot predict with
certainty:
When the next earthquake will be occur
Methodology to assess seismic risk
in urban zones
Seismic hazard
(CRISIS2015)
Seismic vulnerability
(USERISK 2015)
Seismic risk
(USERISK 2015)
Probabilistic assessment to estimate future
ground motions.
Probabilistic Seismic
Hazard Assessment
(PSHA)
San Andrés fault
Los Angeles suburb of San Francisco
Seismic sourcesfor Barcelona (Secanell et al,
2004)
A seismic source is defined by: I) geometry and; II) seismic data
Seismic sources are sites where:
a) earthquakes have occurred; b) new earthquakes can occur
Seismicity parameters
(Secanell et al, 2004; 2008)
Assignment of seismicity parameters for each seismic source
Attenuation relationship “High” and «Low» (López Casado et al, 2000).
Assignment of a ground motion prediction model
Tr= 475 years
Seismic hazard results of Barcelona
Seismic
hazard in
rock
Seismic hazard results of Barcelona
Seismic sources with the major contribution to the
seismic hazard of Barcelona
Epicenter
Firm soil Soft soil
Hypocenter
Geologic
fault
Site effects
Zona sísmica R
Zonas sísmica I, II, III
Sites effects in Barcelona
Map to consider site effects in Barcelona (Lantada, 2007; Lantada et al,
2010; Irizarry et al, 2010).
Increment of the intensity
Seismic vulnerability
of buildings
Seismic response during earthquakes
hypocenter
Buildings
EarthquakePicture:
Puerto Príncipe - Haití
(Logan Abassi/MINUSTAH)
o Without damage
o With different
levels of damage
Application to Barcelona
o Seismic hazard
o Seismic
vulnerability
o Seismic risk
Les Corts
Sarrià
Sant Gervasi
San
ts-M
ontju
ïc
Gràcia
Ciutat Vella
San
t And
reu
Diagonal
Gra
n Via Montjuïc
Besòs
Ciudad Romana
Ciudad Medieval
Arrabal
Barceloneta
Eixample San
t Mar
tí
Sierra de Collserola
0 1 2 3 Km
Horta-G
uinardó
Nou
Barr
is
Río
Les Corts
Sarrià
Sant Gervasi
San
ts-M
ontju
ïc
Gràcia
Ciutat Vella
San
t And
reu
Diagonal
Gra
n Via Montjuïc
Besòs
Ciudad Romana
Ciudad Medieval
Arrabal
Barceloneta
Eixample San
t Mar
tí
Sierra de Collserola
0 1 2 3 Km
Les Corts
Sarrià
Sant Gervasi
San
ts-M
ontju
ïc
Gràcia
Ciutat Vella
San
t And
reu
Diagonal
Gra
n Via Montjuïc
Besòs
Ciudad RomanaCiudad Romana
Ciudad MedievalCiudad Medieval
ArrabalArrabal
BarcelonetaBarceloneta
Eixample San
t Mar
tí
Sierra de Collserola
0 1 2 3 Km0 1 2 3 Km
Horta-G
uinardó
Nou
Barr
is
RíoH
orta-Guinardó
Nou
Barr
is
Río
New assessment of seismic risk
78668 cadastral plots (100 %)
71256 built plots (90.6%,100%)
70137 buildings with known typology (89.2%, 98.4%)
69982 buildings with typology and oldness (89.0%,
98.2%, 100%)
58481 buildings with typology, oldness and
censed persons (74.3%, 82.0%, 83.6%)
Data about the buildings of Barcelona
Code to assess seismic vulnerability and seismic risk
Structure of unreinforced masonry
from a building in Barcelona
Structure of reinforced
concrete from a building in
Barcelona
Three seismic vulnerability curves for each building
Representative curves of the seismic vulnerability of the
dwelling buildings of the 10 districts of Barcelona
Building of unreinforced masonryBuilding of reinforced concrete
Examples of seismic risk curves for buildings
in Barcelona
Without considering
regional modifiers of
the vulnerability,
therefore, these results
must be considered as
the minimum damage
expected.
About 85% of the buildings in
this district have a
probability between 0.15 and
0.30 of reach the damage
state 1
About 15 % of the buildings
in this district have a
probability between 0.05 and
0.15 of reach the damage
state 1
Eixample district
About 50% of the buildings of
this district have a probability
between 0.001 and 0.05 of
reach the damage state 2
About 50% of the buildings of
this district have a probability
between 0.05 and 0.15 of
reach the damage state 2
Eixample district
Without considering
regional modifiers of
the vulnerability,
therefore, these results
must be considered as
the minimum damage
expected.
100% of the buildings of this
district have a probability
between 0.001 and 0.05 of
reach the damage state 3
Eixample district
Without considering
regional modifiers of
the vulnerability,
therefore, these results
must be considered as
the minimum damage
expected.
About 50% of the buildings
have a probability between
0.001 and 0.05 of reach the
damage state 4
About 50% of the buildings
have a probability between
0.000 and 0.001 of reach the
damage state 4
Eixample district
Without considering
regional modifiers of
the vulnerability,
therefore, these results
must be considered as
the minimum damage
expected.
100% of the buildings have a
probability between 0.00 and
0.001 of reach the damage
state 5
Eixample district
Without considering
regional modifiers of
the vulnerability,
therefore, these results
must be considered as
the minimum damage
expected.
Is important to assess the seismic risk of
Barcelona?
Is important to assess the seismic risk of Haiti?
Is convenient to invest resources to do more
research about the assessment of seismic
hazard?
Is convenient to invest resources to do more
research about the assessment of seismic risk?
Highlights
• We cannot avoid the occurrence of new big
earthquakes. However, we can contribute to
reduce the magnitude of the damage due to
future earthquakes.
• But this condition will be possible if we invest
more resources for research and divulgation
