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Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding Rolf Waeber Peter I. Frazier Shane G. Henderson Operations Research & Information Engineering Cornell University, Ithaca, NY Sunday October 14, 2012 INFORMS Annual Meeting Phoenix, AZ This research is supported by AFOSR YIP FA9550-11-1-0083.

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Page 1: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Probabilistic Bisection Searchfor Stochastic Root-Finding

Rolf Waeber Peter I. Frazier Shane G. Henderson

Operations Research & Information EngineeringCornell University, Ithaca, NY

Sunday October 14, 2012

INFORMS Annual MeetingPhoenix, AZ

This research is supported by AFOSR YIP FA9550-11-1-0083.

Page 2: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Stochastic Root-Finding Problem

0 1

0

g(x)

X*

• Consider a function g : [0, 1]→ R.• Assumption: There exists a unique X∗ ∈ [0, 1] such that

• g(x) > 0 for x < X∗,• g(x) < 0 for x > X∗.

Goal: Find X∗ ∈ [0, 1].

• Can only observe Yn(Xn) = g(Xn) + εn(Xn), where εn(Xn) is anindependent noise with zero mean (median).Decisions:

• Where to place samples Xn for n = 0, 1, 2, . . .

• How to estimate X∗ after n iterations.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 2/32

Page 3: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Stochastic Root-Finding Problem

0 1

0

g(x)

X*

• Consider a function g : [0, 1]→ R.• Assumption: There exists a unique X∗ ∈ [0, 1] such that

• g(x) > 0 for x < X∗,• g(x) < 0 for x > X∗.

Goal: Find X∗ ∈ [0, 1].• Can only observe Yn(Xn) = g(Xn) + εn(Xn), where εn(Xn) is anindependent noise with zero mean (median).

Decisions:• Where to place samples Xn for n = 0, 1, 2, . . .

• How to estimate X∗ after n iterations.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 2/32

Page 4: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Stochastic Root-Finding Problem

0 1

0

Yn(X

n)

X*

• Consider a function g : [0, 1]→ R.• Assumption: There exists a unique X∗ ∈ [0, 1] such that

• g(x) > 0 for x < X∗,• g(x) < 0 for x > X∗.

Goal: Find X∗ ∈ [0, 1].• Can only observe Yn(Xn) = g(Xn) + εn(Xn), where εn(Xn) is anindependent noise with zero mean (median).

Decisions:• Where to place samples Xn for n = 0, 1, 2, . . .

• How to estimate X∗ after n iterations.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 2/32

Page 5: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Stochastic Root-Finding Problem

0 1

0

Yn(X

n)

X*

• Consider a function g : [0, 1]→ R.• Assumption: There exists a unique X∗ ∈ [0, 1] such that

• g(x) > 0 for x < X∗,• g(x) < 0 for x > X∗.

Goal: Find X∗ ∈ [0, 1].• Can only observe Yn(Xn) = g(Xn) + εn(Xn), where εn(Xn) is anindependent noise with zero mean (median).Decisions:

• Where to place samples Xn for n = 0, 1, 2, . . .

• How to estimate X∗ after n iterations.Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 2/32

Page 6: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Applications

• Simulation optimization:• g(x) as a gradient

• Sequential statistics:

• Finance:• Pricing American options• Estimating risk measures

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 3/32

Page 7: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Stochastic Approximation (Robbins and Monro, 1951)

0 1

0

g(x)

X*

1. Choose an initial estimate X0 ∈ [0, 1];

2. Determine a tuning sequence (an)n ≥ 0,∑∞

n=0 a 2n <∞, and∑∞

n=0 an =∞.(Example: an = d/n for d > 0.)

3. Xn+1 = Π[0,1](Xn + anYn(Xn)), where Π[0,1] is the projection to [0, 1].

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 4/32

Page 8: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

A “Good” Tuning Sequence

0 200 400 600 800 10000

1

n

Xn

X*

an = 1/n, ε

n ~ N(0,0.5)

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 5/32

Page 9: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

A “Bad” Tuning Sequence – too Large

0 200 400 600 800 10000

1

n

Xn

X*

an = 10/n, ε

n ~ N(0,0.5)

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 5/32

Page 10: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

A “Bad” Tuning Sequence – too Small

0 200 400 600 800 10000

1

n

Xn

X*

an = 0.5/n, ε

n ~ N(0,0.5)

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 5/32

Page 11: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Lack of Robustness – εn with Heavy-Tails

0 200 400 600 800 10000

1

n

Xn

X*

an = 1/n, ε

n ~ t

3

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 5/32

Page 12: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

A Different Approach

What about a bisection algorithm?

0 1

0

g(x)

X*

• Deterministic bisection algorithm will fail almost surely.• Need to account for the noise.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 6/32

Page 13: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

A Different Approach

What about a bisection algorithm?

0 1

0

g(x)

X*

• Deterministic bisection algorithm will fail almost surely.• Need to account for the noise.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 6/32

Page 14: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

The Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 7/32

Page 15: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

The Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm (Horstein, 1963)

• Input: Zn(Xn) := sign(Yn(Xn)).• Assume a prior density f0 on [0, 1].

0 10

1

2

fn(x)

n = 0, Xn = 0.5, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 8/32

Page 16: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

The Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm (Horstein, 1963)

• Input: Zn(Xn) := sign(Yn(Xn)).• Assume a prior density f0 on [0, 1].

0 10

1

2

fn(x)

n = 0, Xn = 0.5, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

0 10

1

2

fn(x)

n = 1, Xn = 0.38462, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 8/32

Page 17: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

The Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm (Horstein, 1963)

• Input: Zn(Xn) := sign(Yn(Xn)).• Assume a prior density f0 on [0, 1].

0 10

1

2

fn(x)

n = 0, Xn = 0.5, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

0 10

1

2

fn(x)

n = 1, Xn = 0.38462, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

0 10

1

2

fn(x)

n = 2, Xn = 0.29586, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 8/32

Page 18: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

The Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm (Horstein, 1963)

• Input: Zn(Xn) := sign(Yn(Xn)).• Assume a prior density f0 on [0, 1].

0 10

1

2

fn(x)

n = 0, Xn = 0.5, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

0 10

1

2

fn(x)

n = 1, Xn = 0.38462, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

0 10

1

2

fn(x)

n = 2, Xn = 0.29586, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

0 10

1

2

fn(x)

n = 3, Xn = 0.36413, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 8/32

Page 19: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Stochastic Root-Finding Revisited

0 1

0

g(x)

X*

Zn(Xn) =

{sign (g(Xn)) with probability p(Xn),

−sign (g(Xn)) with probability 1− p(Xn).

• The probability of a correct sign p(·) depends on g(·) and the noise(εn)n.

• Stylized Setting:• p(·) is constant.• p(·) is known.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 9/32

Page 20: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Stochastic Root-Finding Revisited

0 1

0

g(x)

X*

0 10

0.5

1

p(x)X*

Zn(Xn) =

{sign (g(Xn)) with probability p(Xn),

−sign (g(Xn)) with probability 1− p(Xn).

• The probability of a correct sign p(·) depends on g(·) and the noise(εn)n.

• Stylized Setting:• p(·) is constant.• p(·) is known.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 9/32

Page 21: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Stochastic Root-Finding Revisited

0 1

0

g(x)

X*

0 10

0.5

1

p(x)X*

Zn(Xn) =

{sign (g(Xn)) with probability p(Xn),

−sign (g(Xn)) with probability 1− p(Xn).

• The probability of a correct sign p(·) depends on g(·) and the noise(εn)n.

• Stylized Setting:• p(·) is constant.• p(·) is known.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 9/32

Page 22: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Stochastic Root-Finding Revisited

0 1

0

g(x)

X*

0 10

0.5

1

p

p(x)X*

Zn(Xn) =

{sign (g(Xn)) with probability p(Xn),

−sign (g(Xn)) with probability 1− p(Xn).

• The probability of a correct sign p(·) depends on g(·) and the noise(εn)n.

• Stylized Setting:• p(·) is constant.

• p(·) is known.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 9/32

Page 23: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Stochastic Root-Finding Revisited

0 1

0

g(x)

X*

0 10

0.5

1

p

p(x)X*

Zn(Xn) =

{sign (g(Xn)) with probability p(Xn),

−sign (g(Xn)) with probability 1− p(Xn).

• The probability of a correct sign p(·) depends on g(·) and the noise(εn)n.

• Stylized Setting:• p(·) is constant.• p(·) is known.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 9/32

Page 24: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Stylized Setting• g(x) is a step function with a jump at X∗, for example, in edgedetection applications (Castro and Nowak, 2008).

• Sample sequentially at point Xn and use Sm(Xn) =∑m

i=1 Yn,i(Xn) toconstruct an α-level test of power 1 (Siegmund, 1985):

Nn = inf{m : |Sm| ≥ [(m + 1)(log(m + 1) + 2 log(1/α))]1/2

}.

Then PXn=X∗ {Nn <∞} ≤ α, PXn 6=X∗ {Nn <∞} = 1, andPXn<X∗ {SNn(Xn) > 0} ≥ 1− α/2 = pc ,PXn>X∗ {SNn(Xn) < 0} ≥ 1− α/2 = pc .

0 5 10 15 20m

Sm

(Xn)

0 10

0.5

1

p

p(x)X*

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 10/32

Page 25: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Stylized Setting• g(x) is a step function with a jump at X∗, for example, in edgedetection applications (Castro and Nowak, 2008).

• Sample sequentially at point Xn and use Sm(Xn) =∑m

i=1 Yn,i(Xn) toconstruct an α-level test of power 1 (Siegmund, 1985):

Nn = inf{m : |Sm| ≥ [(m + 1)(log(m + 1) + 2 log(1/α))]1/2

}.

Then PXn=X∗ {Nn <∞} ≤ α, PXn 6=X∗ {Nn <∞} = 1, andPXn<X∗ {SNn(Xn) > 0} ≥ 1− α/2 = pc ,PXn>X∗ {SNn(Xn) < 0} ≥ 1− α/2 = pc .

0 5 10 15 20m

Sm

(Xn)

0 10

0.5

1

p

p(x)X*

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 10/32

Page 26: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

The Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm (Horstein, 1963)

Notation: p(·) = pc ∈ (1/2, 1] and qc = 1− pc .

1. Place a prior density f0 on the root X∗, f0 has domain [0, 1].Example: U(0, 1).

2. For n=0,1,2, . . .(a) Measure at the median Xn := F−1n (1/2).(b) Update the posterior density:

if Zn(Xn) = +1, fn+1(x) ={

2pc · fn(x), if x > Xn,

2qc · fn(x), if x ≤ Xn,

if Zn(Xn) = −1, fn+1(x) ={

2qc · fn(x), if x > Xn,

2pc · fn(x), if x ≤ Xn.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 11/32

Page 27: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

The Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm (Horstein, 1963)

Notation: p(·) = pc ∈ (1/2, 1] and qc = 1− pc .

1. Place a prior density f0 on the root X∗, f0 has domain [0, 1].Example: U(0, 1).

2. For n=0,1,2, . . .(a) Measure at the median Xn := F−1n (1/2).(b) Update the posterior density:

if Zn(Xn) = +1, fn+1(x) ={

2pc · fn(x), if x > Xn,

2qc · fn(x), if x ≤ Xn,

if Zn(Xn) = −1, fn+1(x) ={

2qc · fn(x), if x > Xn,

2pc · fn(x), if x ≤ Xn.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 11/32

Page 28: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 0, Xn = 0.5, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 29: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 1, Xn = 0.61538, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 30: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 2, Xn = 0.70414, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 31: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 3, Xn = 0.63587, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 32: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 4, Xn = 0.55589, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 33: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 5, Xn = 0.46446, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 34: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 6, Xn = 0.35727, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 35: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 7, Xn = 0.43972, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 36: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 8, Xn = 0.51955, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 37: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 9, Xn = 0.45436, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 38: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 10, Xn = 0.39721, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 39: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 11, Xn = 0.33187, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 40: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 12, Xn = 0.25529, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 41: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 13, Xn = 0.3142, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 42: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 14, Xn = 0.37124, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 43: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 15, Xn = 0.32466, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 44: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 16, Xn = 0.3632, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 45: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 17, Xn = 0.33085, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 46: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 18, Xn = 0.30024, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 47: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 19, Xn = 0.25814, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 48: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 20, Xn = 0.20046, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 49: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 21, Xn = 0.24672, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 50: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 22, Xn = 0.27985, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 51: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 23, Xn = 0.31321, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 52: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 24, Xn = 0.28617, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 53: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 25, Xn = 0.2615, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 54: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 26, Xn = 0.28243, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 55: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 27, Xn = 0.29702, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 56: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 28, Xn = 0.32015, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 57: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 29, Xn = 0.33658, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 58: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 30, Xn = 0.36118, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 59: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 31, Xn = 0.38925, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 60: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 32, Xn = 0.43944, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 61: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 33, Xn = 0.39633, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 62: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 34, Xn = 0.42932, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 63: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 35, Xn = 0.4563, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 64: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 36, Xn = 0.43531, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 65: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 37, Xn = 0.41192, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 66: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 38, Xn = 0.43177, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 67: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 39, Xn = 0.41699, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 68: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 40, Xn = 0.39722, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 69: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 41, Xn = 0.41399, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 70: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 42, Xn = 0.4015, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 71: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 43, Xn = 0.41222, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 72: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 44, Xn = 0.40403, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 73: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 45, Xn = 0.41052, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 74: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 46, Xn = 0.40553, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 75: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 47, Xn = 0.39812, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 76: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 48, Xn = 0.37339, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 77: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 49, Xn = 0.35957, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 78: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 50, Xn = 0.36904, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 79: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 60, Xn = 0.36286, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 80: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 70, Xn = 0.37119, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 81: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 80, Xn = 0.37225, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 82: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 90, Xn = 0.37336, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 83: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 100, Xn = 0.3752, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 84: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 110, Xn = 0.37371, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 85: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 120, Xn = 0.3728, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 86: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 130, Xn = 0.37269, Z

n(X

n) = −1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 87: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 140, Xn = 0.37108, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 88: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Path of Posterior Distributions

0 1

fn(x)

n = 150, Xn = 0.37261, Z

n(X

n) = 1

X*

Xn

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 12/32

Page 89: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Comparison to Stochastic Approximation

0 50 100 150 20010

−10

10−8

10−6

10−4

10−2

100

n

|X* − Xn|

Stochastic ApproximationProbabilistic Bisection

0 1

0

g(x)X*

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 13/32

Page 90: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Literature Review: Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm

• First introduced in Horstein (1963).

• Discretized version: Burnashev and Zigangirov (1974).

• Feige et al. (1997), Karp and Kleinberg (2007), Ben-Or andHassidim (2008), Nowak (2008), Nowak (2009), ...

• Survey paper: Castro and Nowak (2008)

“The probabilistic bisection algorithm seems to workextremely well in practice, but it is hard to analyze andthere are few theoretical guarantees for it, especiallypertaining error rates of convergence.”

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 14/32

Page 91: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Literature Review: Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm

• First introduced in Horstein (1963).

• Discretized version: Burnashev and Zigangirov (1974).

• Feige et al. (1997), Karp and Kleinberg (2007), Ben-Or andHassidim (2008), Nowak (2008), Nowak (2009), ...

• Survey paper: Castro and Nowak (2008)

“The probabilistic bisection algorithm seems to workextremely well in practice, but it is hard to analyze andthere are few theoretical guarantees for it, especiallypertaining error rates of convergence.”

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 14/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Algorithm Analysis

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 15/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Consistency

Setting for probabilistic bisection with power 1 tests:• X∗ ∈ [0, 1] fixed and unknown.• Xn 6= X∗ for any finite n ∈ N.• p(Xn) ≥ pc for all n ∈ N.• pc ∈ (1/2, 1) is an input parameter.

TheoremXn → X∗ almost surely as n→∞.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 16/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Consistency

Setting for probabilistic bisection with power 1 tests:• X∗ ∈ [0, 1] fixed and unknown.• Xn 6= X∗ for any finite n ∈ N.• p(Xn) ≥ pc for all n ∈ N.• pc ∈ (1/2, 1) is an input parameter.

TheoremXn → X∗ almost surely as n→∞.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 16/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Analysis of Posterior Density

0 1

• If Zn = +1 :

fn+1(x) = 2qc · fn(x), x < Xn,

fn+1(x) = 2pc · fn(x), x ≥ Xn,

• If Zn = −1 :

fn+1(x) = 2pc · fn(x), x < Xn,

fn+1(x) = 2qc · fn(x), x ≥ Xn.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 17/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Analysis of Posterior Density

Xn

0 1

• If Zn = +1 :

fn+1(x) = 2qc · fn(x), x < Xn,

fn+1(x) = 2pc · fn(x), x ≥ Xn,

• If Zn = −1 :

fn+1(x) = 2pc · fn(x), x < Xn,

fn+1(x) = 2qc · fn(x), x ≥ Xn.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 17/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Analysis of Posterior Density

Xn

0 1X*

Case I: If X∗ < Xn : P(Zn = +1) = p(Xn) ≥ pc• If Zn = +1 :

fn+1(x) = 2qc · fn(x), x < Xn,

fn+1(x) = 2pc · fn(x), x ≥ Xn,

• If Zn = −1 :

fn+1(x) = 2pc · fn(x), x < Xn,

fn+1(x) = 2qc · fn(x), x ≥ Xn.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 17/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Analysis of Posterior Density

Xn

0 1X*

Case II: If X∗ > Xn : P(Zn = +1) = 1− p(Xn) ≤ pc• If Zn = +1 :

fn+1(x) = 2qc · fn(x), x < Xn,

fn+1(x) = 2pc · fn(x), x ≥ Xn,

• If Zn = −1 :

fn+1(x) = 2pc · fn(x), x < Xn,

fn+1(x) = 2qc · fn(x), x ≥ Xn.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 18/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Analysis of Posterior Density cont.

• The dynamics of fn(x) are very complicated for almost all x ∈ [0, 1].

HOWEVER, the dynamics of fn(X∗) are rather simple:

fn+1(X∗) =

{2pc · fn(X∗), with probability p(Xn) ≥ pc ,2qc · fn(X∗), with probability q(Xn) ≤ qc .

• A sample path of fn(X∗) dominates a sample path of a coupledgeometric random walk (Wn)n with dynamics

Wn+1 =

{2pc ·Wn, with probability pc ,2qc ·Wn, with probability qc .

• The process fn(X∗) behaves almost like a geometric random walkindependently of (Xn)n. The goal is then to locate this geometricrandom walk efficiently!

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 19/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Analysis of Posterior Density cont.

• The dynamics of fn(x) are very complicated for almost all x ∈ [0, 1].HOWEVER, the dynamics of fn(X∗) are rather simple:

fn+1(X∗) =

{2pc · fn(X∗), with probability p(Xn) ≥ pc ,2qc · fn(X∗), with probability q(Xn) ≤ qc .

• A sample path of fn(X∗) dominates a sample path of a coupledgeometric random walk (Wn)n with dynamics

Wn+1 =

{2pc ·Wn, with probability pc ,2qc ·Wn, with probability qc .

• The process fn(X∗) behaves almost like a geometric random walkindependently of (Xn)n. The goal is then to locate this geometricrandom walk efficiently!

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 19/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Analysis of Posterior Density cont.

• The dynamics of fn(x) are very complicated for almost all x ∈ [0, 1].HOWEVER, the dynamics of fn(X∗) are rather simple:

fn+1(X∗) =

{2pc · fn(X∗), with probability p(Xn) ≥ pc ,2qc · fn(X∗), with probability q(Xn) ≤ qc .

• A sample path of fn(X∗) dominates a sample path of a coupledgeometric random walk (Wn)n with dynamics

Wn+1 =

{2pc ·Wn, with probability pc ,2qc ·Wn, with probability qc .

• The process fn(X∗) behaves almost like a geometric random walkindependently of (Xn)n. The goal is then to locate this geometricrandom walk efficiently!

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 19/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Analysis of Posterior Density cont.

• The dynamics of fn(x) are very complicated for almost all x ∈ [0, 1].HOWEVER, the dynamics of fn(X∗) are rather simple:

fn+1(X∗) =

{2pc · fn(X∗), with probability p(Xn) ≥ pc ,2qc · fn(X∗), with probability q(Xn) ≤ qc .

• A sample path of fn(X∗) dominates a sample path of a coupledgeometric random walk (Wn)n with dynamics

Wn+1 =

{2pc ·Wn, with probability pc ,2qc ·Wn, with probability qc .

• The process fn(X∗) behaves almost like a geometric random walkindependently of (Xn)n. The goal is then to locate this geometricrandom walk efficiently!

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 19/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Confidence Intervals for X ∗

• Notation: µ = pc ln 2pc + qc ln 2qc .• For α ∈ (0, 1), define

bn = nµ− n1/2(−0.5 lnα)1/2(ln 2pc − ln 2qc).

• DefineJn = conv(x ∈ [0, 1] : fn(x) ≥ ebn).

TheoremFor α ∈ (0, 1),

P(X∗ ∈ Jn) ≥ 1− α,

for all n ∈ N.

Proof:Application of Hoeffding’s inequality.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 20/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Confidence Intervals for X ∗

• Notation: µ = pc ln 2pc + qc ln 2qc .• For α ∈ (0, 1), define

bn = nµ− n1/2(−0.5 lnα)1/2(ln 2pc − ln 2qc).

• DefineJn = conv(x ∈ [0, 1] : fn(x) ≥ ebn).

TheoremFor α ∈ (0, 1),

P(X∗ ∈ Jn) ≥ 1− α,

for all n ∈ N.

Proof:Application of Hoeffding’s inequality.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 20/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Confidence Intervals for X ∗

• Notation: µ = pc ln 2pc + qc ln 2qc .• For α ∈ (0, 1), define

bn = nµ− n1/2(−0.5 lnα)1/2(ln 2pc − ln 2qc).

• DefineJn = conv(x ∈ [0, 1] : fn(x) ≥ ebn).

TheoremFor α ∈ (0, 1),

P(X∗ ∈ Jn) ≥ 1− α,

for all n ∈ N.

Proof:Application of Hoeffding’s inequality.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 20/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Size of Confidence IntervalTheoremChoose pc ≥ 0.85, α ∈ (0, 1). For 0 < r < µ− qc ln 2pc there exists aN(pc , r , α) ∈ N, such that

P(|Jn| ≤ e−rn,X∗ ∈ Jn) ≥ 1− α,

for all n ≥ N(pc , r , α).

Proof Idea:

0 1

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 21/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Size of Confidence IntervalTheoremChoose pc ≥ 0.85, α ∈ (0, 1). For 0 < r < µ− qc ln 2pc there exists aN(pc , r , α) ∈ N, such that

P(|Jn| ≤ e−rn,X∗ ∈ Jn) ≥ 1− α,

for all n ≥ N(pc , r , α).

Proof Idea:

0 1Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 21/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Rate of Convergence

TheoremDefine X̂n to be any point in Jn, then there exists r > 0 such that

E[|X∗ − X̂n|] = O(e−rn).

• This is extremely fast compared to stochastic approximation:

O(e−rn) vs. O(n−1/2).

• And we have true confidence intervals for X∗.• But n is the number of measurement points, what about totalwall-clock time?

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 22/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Rate of Convergence

TheoremDefine X̂n to be any point in Jn, then there exists r > 0 such that

E[|X∗ − X̂n|] = O(e−rn).

• This is extremely fast compared to stochastic approximation:

O(e−rn) vs. O(n−1/2).

• And we have true confidence intervals for X∗.• But n is the number of measurement points, what about totalwall-clock time?

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 22/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Rate of Convergence

TheoremDefine X̂n to be any point in Jn, then there exists r > 0 such that

E[|X∗ − X̂n|] = O(e−rn).

• This is extremely fast compared to stochastic approximation:

O(e−rn) vs. O(n−1/2).

• And we have true confidence intervals for X∗.

• But n is the number of measurement points, what about totalwall-clock time?

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 22/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Rate of Convergence

TheoremDefine X̂n to be any point in Jn, then there exists r > 0 such that

E[|X∗ − X̂n|] = O(e−rn).

• This is extremely fast compared to stochastic approximation:

O(e−rn) vs. O(n−1/2).

• And we have true confidence intervals for X∗.• But n is the number of measurement points, what about totalwall-clock time?

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 22/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Wall-Clock TimeAt each iteration of the Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm:

• Sample sequentially at point Xn and observeSm(Xn) =

∑mi=1 Yn,i(Xn), until

Nn = inf{m : |Sm| ≥ [(m + 1)(log(m + 1) + 2 log(1/α))]1/2

},

then PXn=X∗ {Nn <∞} ≤ α, PXn 6=X∗ {Nn <∞} = 1, and

PXn<X∗ {SNn(Xn) > 0} ≥ 1− α/2 = pc ,PXn>X∗ {SNn(Xn) < 0} ≥ 1− α/2 = pc .

• Wall-clock time: Tn =∑n

i=1 Nn.

0 5 10 15 20m

Sm

(Xn)

0 10

0.5

1

p

p(x)X*

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 23/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Sample Paths

100

101

102

103

104

105

−0.5

0

0.5

Tn

X* − Xn

Robbin−Monro, an = 1/n, ε

n ~ N(0,1)

100

101

102

103

104

105

−0.5

0

0.5

Tn

X* − Xn

Robbin−Monro, an = 1/n, ε

n ~ N(0,1)

100

101

102

103

104

105

−0.5

0

0.5

Tn

X* − Xn

Robbin−Monro, an = 1/n, ε

n ~ N(0,1)

100

101

102

103

104

105

−0.5

0

0.5

Tn

X* − Xn

Bisection, p = 0.75, εn ~ N(0,1)

100

101

102

103

104

105

−0.5

0

0.5

Tn

X* − Xn

Bisection, p = 0.75, εn ~ N(0,1)

100

101

102

103

104

105

−0.5

0

0.5

Tn

X* − Xn

Bisection, p = 0.75, εn ~ N(0,1)

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 24/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Numerical Comparison

100

101

102

103

104

105

10−4

10−3

10−2

10−1

100

Tn

E[|X

* −

Xn|]

Robbins−Monro (an=1/n)

Bisection, Siegmund (pc=0.85)

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 25/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Rate of Convergence in Wall-Clock Time?• Farrell (1964):

Eg(x)[N] ∼ (1/g(x))2 log log(1/|g(x)|) as g(x)→ 0,

and for all tests of power one, if P0(N =∞) > 0, then

limg(x)→0

g(x)2Eg(x)[N] =∞.

Theorem

1. limn→∞ E[|X∗ − Xn|(Tn)1/2] =∞.

2. (|X∗ − Xn|(Tn)1/2)n is not tight.

• Ifg(x)→ 0 as x → X∗,

and if we use Xn as the best estimate of X∗ then the ProbabilisticBisection Algorithm with power one tests is asymptotically slowerthan Stochastic Approximation.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 26/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Rate of Convergence in Wall-Clock Time?• Farrell (1964):

Eg(x)[N] ∼ (1/g(x))2 log log(1/|g(x)|) as g(x)→ 0,

and for all tests of power one, if P0(N =∞) > 0, then

limg(x)→0

g(x)2Eg(x)[N] =∞.

Theorem

1. limn→∞ E[|X∗ − Xn|(Tn)1/2] =∞.

2. (|X∗ − Xn|(Tn)1/2)n is not tight.

• Ifg(x)→ 0 as x → X∗,

and if we use Xn as the best estimate of X∗ then the ProbabilisticBisection Algorithm with power one tests is asymptotically slowerthan Stochastic Approximation.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 26/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Rate of Convergence in Wall-Clock Time?• Farrell (1964):

Eg(x)[N] ∼ (1/g(x))2 log log(1/|g(x)|) as g(x)→ 0,

and for all tests of power one, if P0(N =∞) > 0, then

limg(x)→0

g(x)2Eg(x)[N] =∞.

Theorem

1. limn→∞ E[|X∗ − Xn|(Tn)1/2] =∞.

2. (|X∗ − Xn|(Tn)1/2)n is not tight.

• Ifg(x)→ 0 as x → X∗,

and if we use Xn as the best estimate of X∗ then the ProbabilisticBisection Algorithm with power one tests is asymptotically slowerthan Stochastic Approximation.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 26/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Conjecture

• Xn might not be the best estimate for X∗ when we use power onetests.

• Intuitively, observations where we spend more time should also becloser to X∗, hence an estimator of the form

X̃n =1Tn

n∑i=1

NiXi

should perform better.

• Conjecture: For any β > 0 it holds that

E[|X̃n − X∗|] = O(T− 1

2(1+β)n ),

(if g satisfies some growth conditions).• Sufficient Condition: |Xn − X∗| = O(e−rn) for some r > 0.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 27/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Conjecture

• Xn might not be the best estimate for X∗ when we use power onetests.

• Intuitively, observations where we spend more time should also becloser to X∗, hence an estimator of the form

X̃n =1Tn

n∑i=1

NiXi

should perform better.• Conjecture: For any β > 0 it holds that

E[|X̃n − X∗|] = O(T− 1

2(1+β)n ),

(if g satisfies some growth conditions).

• Sufficient Condition: |Xn − X∗| = O(e−rn) for some r > 0.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 27/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Conjecture

• Xn might not be the best estimate for X∗ when we use power onetests.

• Intuitively, observations where we spend more time should also becloser to X∗, hence an estimator of the form

X̃n =1Tn

n∑i=1

NiXi

should perform better.• Conjecture: For any β > 0 it holds that

E[|X̃n − X∗|] = O(T− 1

2(1+β)n ),

(if g satisfies some growth conditions).• Sufficient Condition: |Xn − X∗| = O(e−rn) for some r > 0.

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 27/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Numerical Comparison Cont.

100

101

102

103

104

105

10−4

10−3

10−2

10−1

100

Tn

E[|X

* −

Xn|]

Robbins−Monro (an=1/n)

Bisection, Siegmund (pc=0.85)

Polyak−RuppertBisection Averaging

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 28/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Conclusions

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 29/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

ConclusionsPositive:

• Provides true confidence interval of the root X∗.

• Works extremely well if there is a jump at g(X∗) (geometric rate ofconvergence).

• Only one tuning parameter.

Drawbacks:• Seems to be asymptotically slower than Stochastic Approximation(but by not much).

• Higher computational cost.

Future Research:• Robustness of algorithm.

• Use parallel computing (very little switching of (Xn)n).

• Extension to higher dimensions.Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 30/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

THANK YOU!

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 31/32

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Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

M. Ben-Or and A. Hassidim (2008): The Bayesian learner is optimal for noisy binary search. In49th Annual IEEE Symposium on Foundations of Computer Science. IEEE, pp. 221–230.

M. Burnashev and K. Zigangirov (1974): An interval estimation problem for controlledobservations. Problemy Peredachi Informatsii 10:51–61.

R. Castro and R. Nowak (2008): Active learning and sampling. In Foundations andApplications of Sensor Management, A. O. Hero, D. A. Castañón, D. Cochran and K. Kastella,editors. Springer, pp. 177–200.

R. H. Farrell (1964): Asymptotic behavior of expected sample size in certain one sided tests.The Annals of Mathematical Statistics 35:36–72.

U. Feige, P. Raghavan, D. Peleg and E. Upfal (1997): Computing with noisy information.SIAM Journal of Computing :1001–1018.

M. Horstein (1963): Sequential transmission using noiseless feedback. IEEE Transactions onInformation Theory 9:136–143.

R. Karp and R. Kleinberg (2007): Noisy binary search and its applications. In Proceedings ofthe eighteenth annual ACM-SIAM symposium on Discrete algorithms. Society for Industrial andApplied Mathematics, pp. 881–890.

R. Nowak (2008): Generalized binary search. In 46th Annual Allerton Conference onCommunication, Control, and Computing . pp. 568–574.

R. Nowak (2009): Noisy generalized binary search. In Advances in neural information processingsystems, volume 22. pp. 1366–1374.

H. Robbins and S. Monro (1951): A stochastic approximation method. The Annals ofMathematical Statistics 22:400–407.

D. Siegmund (1985): Sequential Analysis: tests and confidence intervals. Springer.Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 32/32

Page 126: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Tuning Parameters

100

101

102

103

104

105

10−4

10−3

10−2

10−1

100

n

Input Parameters d to Robbins−Monro (stepsize d/n), X* ~ U(0,1)

E[|X* − Xn|]

0.10.250.50.7511.5251020

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 32/32

Page 127: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Tuning Parameters

100

101

102

103

104

105

10−4

10−3

10−2

10−1

100

n

Input Parameters pc to Bisection Algorithm, X* ~ U(0,1)

E[|X* − Xn|]

0.5250.5750.6250.6750.7250.7750.8250.8750.9250.975

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 32/32

Page 128: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Higher Dimensions

Boundary detection:

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 10

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1n = 0, Z = −1

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 33/32

Page 129: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Higher Dimensions

Boundary detection:

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 10

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1n = 1, Z = −1

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 33/32

Page 130: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Higher Dimensions

Boundary detection:

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 10

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1n = 2, Z = 1

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 33/32

Page 131: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Higher Dimensions

Boundary detection:

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 10

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1n = 3, Z = 1

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 33/32

Page 132: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Higher Dimensions

Boundary detection:

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 10

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1n = 4, Z = −1

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 33/32

Page 133: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Higher Dimensions

Boundary detection:

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 10

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1n = 5, Z = 1

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 33/32

Page 134: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Higher Dimensions

Boundary detection:

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 10

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1n = 6, Z = 1

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 33/32

Page 135: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Higher Dimensions

Boundary detection:

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 10

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1n = 7, Z = −1

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 33/32

Page 136: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Higher Dimensions

Boundary detection:

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 10

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1n = 8, Z = 1

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 33/32

Page 137: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Higher Dimensions

Boundary detection:

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 10

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1n = 9, Z = 1

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 33/32

Page 138: Probabilistic Bisection Search 0.1cm for Stochastic Root …Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding RolfWaeber PeterI.Frazier ShaneG.Henderson OperationsResearch&InformationEngineering

Rolf Waeber Probabilistic Bisection Search for Stochastic Root-Finding

Higher Dimensions

Boundary detection:

0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 10

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1n = 10, Z = 1

Stochastic Root-Finding Probabilistic Bisection Algorithm Analysis Conclusions References 33/32