Verification

Priority Project ‘Quantitative Precipitation Forecast’

Progress report Task 1.1 and 1.2

Silke Dierer and Francis SchubigerMeteoSwiss

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VerificationOutline

Work in Task 1.1Sources for cases with bad precipitation forecastPreliminary list of casesFurther steps

Work in Task 1.2Verification for Winter 04/05 and Dec.05/Jan.06Example of a characteristic periodFurther steps

Verification

Task 1.1 Selection of single test cases

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VerificationSelection of test cases: sources I

Information from forecasters about bad precipitation forecast

Not objectiveFor different forecast ranges

Verification of precipitation by forecastersdaily average for 15 regions in Switzerlandforecast, model results and observationsdisadvantage: currently no automatic evaluation possible

=> Situations with bad precipitation forecast in Switzerland

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VerificationSelection of test cases: sources II

SYNOP-Verification- surface verification for Europe with SYNOP data

=> Situations with bad precipitation forecast for the aLMo domain

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VerificationSelection of test cases

Preliminary list of test cases includes periodsthat are reported by forecasters or have a bad forecast for several regions (forecasters‘ verification)and show high deviation in SYNOP verification

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VerificationSelection of test cases: Preliminary list for 2005

Date Source Under-/Overestimation classification (based on NCEP data)dd at 500 hPa surface pressure

(high, low, flat)19.-22.1. FV + NW/NW/NW/NW L/H/H/L22.-23.1. FV + NW/NW L/L11.-15.2. FV + W/W/NW/NW/N H/H/L/L/L24.3. FV - SW H, flat9.4. FV + NO L16./17.4. FV - SO/O L,flat23.-25.4. Fo/FV +/+ W/W/SW H16./17.5. Fo/FV ?/+ SW H21.-23.5. FV - SW H14.6. FV + SW H25.6. FV +/- SW H,flat2.7. Fo + W L18.7. FV + SW H29.7. FV + SW H,flat2./3.8. FV + SW/S H->L, inbetween6.8. FV + W H11.8. Fo + W H14.-22.8. Fo/FV ?/+ (mainly) W/NW/N/N/N/W/SW/SO/O

H/L/L/H,flat/H,flat/H/L/L/L28.8. Fo + NW H,flat2.9. FV + S H,flat8.-12.9. Fo/FV -/- (mainly) S/S/?/SW/SWH,flat/H,flat/L,flat,/L/L16./17.9. FV -, dann + W/SW L/L1.-3.10. Fo/FV +, dann –/- N/W/W H/L/L18.10. Fo erst -/dann + SW H22./23.10. Fo - SW/SW L/L3.11. Fo ? SW L6.11. Fo - SW H,flat

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VerificationANETZ verification for 21st January 05

full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo,

red: LM

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VerificationSelection of test cases: next steps

Complete list for 2004 and 2006Check if insufficient forecast is due to deviations of the synoptic situation

Might be necessary to rerun simulations due to missing output plots that can be compared with analysisPossibly ANETZ verification

=> skip these casesSpecify different kinds forecast errors (e.g. synoptic conditions) and select characteristic test cases

Verification

Task 1.2. Seasonal verification

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VerificationVerification of aLMo Winter 04/05 SYNOP

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VerificationVerification of aLMo Winter 04/05 over Switzerland

full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo,

red: LM

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VerificationVerification of aLMo: December 05 – January 06

full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo

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VerificationFebruary 2005

full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo,

red: LM

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VerificationANETZ verification for 10th -14th February 05

full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo,

red: LM

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VerificationSeasonal verification: next steps

Selection of characteristic days Based on scatter plots for winter 2004/2005 and 2005/2006 (measurement vs. simulation)

24h area averages for Switzerland, for different heights (0-800m, 800m-1500m and above 1500m)Selecting days with bad precipitation forecastSpecifying synoptic situationSelect characteristic periods