PRIORITIES OFPRIORITIES OF PAKISTAN

IN ENERGY SECTORENERGY CONFERENCEENERGY CONFERENCE

POWER & ALTERNATIVE ENERGYPOWER & ALTERNATIVE ENERGYKarachi expo Centre

C29 MARCH 2014

SEQUENCESEQUENCE

1. BACK GROUND INFORMATION

2. CURRENT POSITION OF ENERGY

3. DECISION MAKING IN ENERGY SECTOR

4. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR GRID POWER

5. RURAL ELECTRIFICATION

BACK GROUND INFORMATION

INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENTS IN SOLAR

145 mw Solar PV Plant GNeuhardenberg Germany

Charanka, India 10 MW solar PV Power Plant

CHINACHINA

SHARE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY IN ALL NEW POWER (GW) DURINGIN EUROPE DURING THE YEAR 2009

12

10

12

A

T

T

S

6

8

G

I

G

A

W

2

4

O

W

E

R

G

0

2

N

D

A

S

A

R

A

L

S

S

O

I

L

T

E

A

R

R

O

A

R

P

P

W

I

N

G

A

S

O

L

A

P

V

C

O

A

B

I

O

M

A

S

O

W

A

S

T

N

U

C

L

E

A

H

Y

D

R

S

O

L

A

C

S

P

ENERGY SOURCE

Japan 2013- 10,000 MW of installed PV 2016- 20,000 MW PLANNED

It is w rth mentioning that residenti l It is worth mentioning that residential PV systems amount o 80% of thePV systems amount to 80% of the total installed capacity in Japan.

Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission SolarishiMission Solarishi

India

TARIFF = USD 0.29) per kWh for the first 12 years and Rs 5 (about USD 0 10) per kWh fro the 1and Rs 5 (about USD 0.10) per kWh from the 13th to 25th year.

About 600 MW were completed prior to the deadline of January 28, 2012 to receive the above tariff.

CHINA SOLAR PV VOSTS255w polycrystalli nel wi U255w polycrystalline solar panel with CE TUV MC...

FOB Price: US $ ~0 65/FOB Price: US $0.60 0.65/ WATTGet Latest Price

1 CE TUV IEC61215 IEC61730 CEC CGC MCS ETL Certified1 CE TUV IEC61215 IEC61730 CEC CGC MCS ETL Certified THEREFORE SOLAR PV COST= 0.6MILLION/MW

CHINA SOLAR PV COSTSCHINA SOLAR PV COSTSpoly 230w solar panel

FOB Price: US $0.4~0.6/ WATT THEREFORE SOLAR PV COST= $0.5 MILLION/MW

230w solar panel in stock 2.TUV/CE/ROHS/FCC certficate

% working efficiency3.16% working efficiency 4. 25 years warranty

Decisions in Energy Sector

All decisions in Energy Sector are being gy gtaken at Federal Level

Relevant HR Experti in Energy Sec Relevant HR Expertise in Energy Sector SERIOUSLY Missing

Time taken to develop HR com arativel lon unless im ortedp y g p

Existing Mechanism of Decision Making needs to be complimented by expertsneeds to be complimented by experts

INSTALLED CAPACITY OF ELECTRICITY IN PAKISTAN IN MW'SHydel Thermal Nuclear

25,000

2013- 22,797 MW NUCLEAR20,000

,

15,000

THERMAL10,000

THERMAL0,000

5,000

HYDRO088/89 90/91 92/93 96/97 98/99 99/00 00/01 05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11 11/12

HYDRO

HYDRO POWER PROJSHYDRO POWER PROJS

PROJ 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

121 ALLAIKHAWAR MW

KHAN KHAWAR72 MW

DUBER KHAWAR130 MW

96JINNAH

96 MW

NEELUM JHELUM274 MW

Installation cost/kw for Jabban HydroPP Rs. 169, 745 (US$ 1997 / KW)

Pakistan Breaks Ground on Nuclear Plant Project With ChinaWith China

By SALMAN MASOOD and CHRIS BUCKLEY

Published: November 26, 2013,ISLAMABAD, Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif on Tuesday ceremonially r g u nSharif on Tuesday ceremonially broke ground on a $9.59 billion; 2,200- MW nuclear power

l t b b ilt i K hi ith Chi hcomplex to be built in Karachi with Chinas help

$ 4 36 illion/$ 4.36 million/ MWWILL TAKE 6 TO 7 YEARS

Does not include Transmission cosDoes not include Transmission costs

ANNUALELECTRICTYGENERATIONCOMPARISONDESIGNEDGENERATIONCAPACITY[GWH] 201112[GWH]

11,826

8,891

7,446

5 606

7,446

5593

2,1371,708

5,606

1 524

1,3143681

19181,156

1,524307 149 342

163 48 56 284 961656 108 0 2

SPSFaisalabad

GTPSFaisalabad

NGPSMultan

TPSMuzaffarGarh

TPSGuddu(unit14)

TPSGuddu(unit513)

GTPSKotri FBCLakhra TPSJamshoro

TPSQuetta TPSPasni TPSPanjgur

UTILIZATIONFACTOROFTHERMALPOWERPLANTSINPUBLICSECTOR:AVERAGEOFFIVEYEARS

70

80

50

60

30

40

20

30

UF

0

10

15 YEARS AVERAGE TILIZATION FACTOR OF HYDRO POWER

62 73 61 14 61 88

FACTOR OF HYDRO POWER

50.9558.37

62.73 61.1453.29

58.31 61.88

45 57

36.0030 37 32.40

45.5742.55

30.3727.16

48%48%

INSTALLED/ DESIGNED POWER GENERATION VERSUS ACTUAL POWER GENERATION

199,701,720

94 385 00094,385,000

DESIGN ACTUAL

850 MW JAMSHORO THERMAL POWER PLANT850MWJAMSHOROTHERMALPOWERPLANTTPSJAMSHORO850MW

UTILIZATION FACTOR: 43 9%UTILIZATIONFACTOR:43.9%

850MWJAMSHOROTHERMALPOWERPLANTTPSJAMSHORO850MW

UTILIZATION FACTOR: 43 9%UTILIZATIONFACTOR:43.9%

GUDDU THERMAL POWER PLANT TPS GUDDU 640 MW

UTILIZATION 40 7%UTILIZATION FACTOR: 40.7%

GUDDU THERMAL POWER PLANT TPS GUDDU 640 MW

UTILIZATION FACTOR:UTILIZATION FACTOR: 40.7%

Shahdara 59 MWUF =0%

GTPS FaisalabadUF= 6%%

GTPS 244GTPS Faisalabad

244 MW

SPS 132SPS Faisalabad

132 MW

STEAM POWER STATIONSTEAM POWER STATIONFaisalabad UF =16%

KOTRI THERMAL POWER PLANTGTPS KOTRI 174 MW

UTILIZATION 38 %UTILIZATION FACTOR: 38.5%

KOTRI THERMAL POWER PLANTGTPS KOTRI 174 MWGTPS KOTRI 174 MW

UTILIZATION FACTOR: 38.5%

LAKHRA THERMAL POWER PLANTFBC LAKHRA 150 MW

UTILIZATION FACTOR: 33 6%33.6%

LAKHRA THERMAL POWER PLANTFBC LAKHRA 150 MW

UTILIZATION FACTOR: 33.6%

QUETTA THERMAL POWER PLANTQUETTATHERMALPOWERPLANTTPSQUETTA35MW

UTILIZATION FACTOR: 33%UTILIZATIONFACTOR:33%

QUETTATHERMALPOWERPLANTTPS QUETTA 35 MWTPSQUETTA35MW

UTILIZATIONFACTOR:33%

MuzaffargarhMuzaffargarh UF = 33%UF = 33%

SOLAR ENERGY = 1KW/SQ M

[REF PSYB 2011]

1 M

[REF: PSYB -2011]

1 SQ KM = 100 HECTARES1 KW1 M 1 SQ KM = 100 HECTARES1 HECTARE= 100 SQ M

PAKISTANS AREA= 79.61 MILLION HECTARESAREA (in sq m)= 7 961 000 000 SQMTOTAL AREA (in sq m)= 7,961,000,000 SQM

PAKISTAN receives 7 961 000 000 KW of solar radiationsPAKISTAN receives 7,961,000,000 KW of solar radiations .7.9 MILLION MW

@10% = 790,000 MW

MAY

SOURCE: SOLAR ENERGY GUIDE AND DATABOOK

FOR PAKISTANFOR PAKISTAN

NASIM .A.KHAN

RECOMMENDATIONS

CONVERT 1000 MW ON TO SOLAR PV BY USING SAME GRID STATION GRID STATION TRANSMISSION LINES

MANPOWER MANPOWER LAND

TIME 12 MONTHS TO 24 MONTHS

RECOMMENDATIONS Contd

Contact two or three Chinese Manufacturers for Low cost Low cost competition Rapid Installation All provinces done simultaneously

REDUCE TIME FURTHER i.e. LESS THAN 12 MONTHS TO 24 MONTHSTHAN 12 MONTHS TO 24 MONTHS

RECOMMENDATIONS Contd

Additional jobs, businesses j Jobs

Low level businesses Low level businesses Recirculation of funds Better utilization of existing resources

Market develo ment in technolop gy

REMOTE ELECTRIFICATION

VILLAGES 10 KM AWAY FROM GRID

POPULATION GROWTH PATTERN IN PAKISTAN

Overview of village Bharomal (Sindh)Bharomal (Sindh)

ENERGY CYCLE OF TRANSITION OF WEST

SOLAR/AE

50

NUCLEAR

50 YRS

50 YRS

OIL & GASYRS

NIL

WOOD COALMILLIONS OF YRS

150 YEARS

OF YRSTHOUSANDS OF YRS

ENERGY CYCLE OF TRANSITION OF REMOTE AREAS OF PAKISTOF REMOTE AREAS OF PAKISTAN

NIL WOOD

(MILLIONS OF YEARS)

ENERGY CYCLE OF TRANSITIONENERGY CYCLE OF TRANSITION RECOMMENDED STRATEGY PAKISTAN

SOLAR/AE

50

NUCLEAR

50 YRS

50 YRS

OIL & GASNIL

WOOD COALMILLIONS OF YRS

150 YEARS

OF YRSTHOUSANDS OF YRS

INNOVATIVE STRATEGIES

A QUESTION IS, WHEN WOULD AN AVERAGE PAKISTANI USE ENERGY

EQUAL TO ENGLAN OF 1970 ?EQUAL TO ENGLAND OF 1970 ?

PLAN SUCH A TARGETTED GROWTH FOR THE YEAR 2030 OR 2050YEAR 2030 OR 2050

ENERGY GROWTH MODEL FOR PAKISTAN

800002030 MODEL 2050 MODEL

UK-1970

60000

70000

D

W

)

40000

50000

A

L

L

E

D

R

(

M

W

20000

30000

40000

I

N

S

T

A

P

O

W

E

R

EXISTING GROWTH RATE

10000

20000

P

PAKISTAN 2013

01 2 3 4 5 6

BEGINNING OF DECADE

INSTALLATION COST OF SOLAR PV POWER PLANT ABB

SERVICES

PV

SERVICES22%

PV PANELS42%

CABLES ETC8%

INVERTERS ETC

STRUCTURES18%

10%

18%

BREAKDOWN OF PV POWER PLANT COSTS 2013

SALES TAX4%

ELECTRICAL1% PERMITTING

1%INVERTER

5%

%

MODULES33%

LABOR

MOUNTING5%

LABOR7%

OTHER COSTS12%

BUS O/H32%

CONCLUSIONCONCLUSION