Food Security Futures conference, 11-12 April 2013, Dublin, Ireland

Food security and sustainable resource use – what are the resource challenges to food security?

Frank Place, ICRAF, CGIAR , Alexandre Meybeck, FAO

Contributing authors: Linda Colette (FAO), Cassandra de Young (FAO), Vincent Gitz (FAO), Ehsan Dulloo (Bioversity), Stephen Hall

(World Fish Center), Eva Müller (FAO), Robert Nasi (CIFOR), Andrew Noble (IWMI), David Spielman (IFPRI), Pasquale Steduto (FAO), Keith

Wiebe (FAO),

Outline 1/2

Food Security Context: Food Consumption and Production Needs in 2050

Natural Resources for Food Production: Current Status and Trends Land Water Fisheries Rangelands Forests & trees Genetic resources Landscapes and ecosystem services

Outline 2/2 Key Natural Resource Challenges for food

security Inequitable distribution Accessibility Optimize use for food security

Addressing the challenges Research Development Policy FAO and CGIAR Roles

Food Security Context: Food Consumption Needs in 2050

From FAO: World Agriculture Towards 2030/2050 Agricultural production will need to increase by

60% between 2006 and 2050 to meet projected growth in demand

This does not take into account climate change nor possible increased demand for biofuels

Food Production Increases Needed by 2050

Production can be met with various assumptions, but as expansion of land for food becomes more difficult, FAO estimates that 80% is to be met by yield increase

New land will account for about 20% of the increase in production

Yield increases will need to be on the order of 0.64% per annum globally; but 1.8% in SSA and 1.0% in S. Asia

Globally, cereal yields are increasing, but at decreasing rates (from 3.1% in 1960s to 1.3% in 2000’s)

“Global resources are sufficient, but the devil is local”

Natural Resources for Food Production: Land

More than 1 billion ha of good land could be brought into cultivation, but much is in forests, rangeland or other land use; others may be difficult to convert

If yield increases can be maintained, the net new land area is a modest 70 million ha – mainly from SSA and L. America

Source: Fisher et al. 2011: GEAZ model

Natural Resources for Food Production: Land Quality The 1991 GLASOD study estimated that 15% of all

land was degraded. More recent studies by FAO (LADA) and Bai et al.

find about 25% of areas degraded or degrading – with a significant proportion on farmland

Globally, only half the nutrients that crops take from the soil are replaced, with nutrient depletion in many Asian countries equivalent to 50 kg/ha annually.

Globally, 34 million ha are now impacted by salinity representing 11% of the total irrigated equipped area

Tan et al. noted that the ratio of crop yield to NPK fertilizer application has fallen dramatically between 1961 to 2000, from 494 to 71

Use of Nutrient Inputs in Food Production Estimated that fertilizer accounted for 33-50% of yield

growth in developing countries between the 1970s and 2000s

High rates per ha observed in Asia, North America, Europe; L. America is catching up; rates remain very low in SSA

The use of organic nutrients is also high – brown and green manures

Natural Resources for Food Production: Water The FAO projections indicate that the global

demand for water withdrawals from agriculture will increase by 11% from a 2006 baseline to 2050

By 2050, more than half the world’s population will live in countries with severe water constraints

Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture, 2007

Natural Resources for Food Production: Water In rainfed agriculture, less than 30% of rainfall is used by

plants in the process of biomass production The importance of irrigated agriculture cannot be

overstated. At present it accounts, with 16% of the arable area, for 44% of total crop production

There are water supply limits to the expansion of irrigation: more than 40% of global area withdraws more than 20% of renewable water resources which is considered to be a critical level

The intensive agricultural economies of Asia withdraw 20% of their internal renewable resources, of which more than 80% goes to irrigation

The aggregate projection shows that the area equipped for irrigation could expand by 20 million ha over the period from 2005/2007 to 2050, nearly all of it in the developing countries, thus leading to about 240 million ha under irrigation

Natural Resources for Food Production: Fisheries Countries that depend most on fish for food and

nutrition security rely primarily on catches from the wild

The most recent estimate states that 29.9% of stocks were over-exploited, depleted or recovering in 2009 – but data from parts of Asia and Africa are lacking

Demand is almost certain to outstrip future gains in productivity thus achieving a sustainable offtake level is a key objective

Natural Resources for Food Production: Rangelands and Feed Permanent meadows and pastures are 3.35 billion

ha globally or about 26% of land area There has been degradation of rangelands recorded

with management and environmental contributing Estimates put the world feed use of cereals at 742

million tonnes, or 36% of world total cereal use. The growth rate of cereal feed is lower than that of

livestock production – partly due to shifting growths among livestock types

Oilcake feed production is increasing (e.g. soybeans for use in China) and is expected to be faster than that of cereal feed to 2050 (80% vs 50% growth)

Natural Resources for Food Production: Forests and trees

Forests cover about 4 billion ha about 31% of the world’s land area Tree cover of at least 10% is found on half of agricultural lands Forests provide rich sources of nutrients and fuelwood in forested

landscapes; trees on farms provide fruit, nuts, leaves and contribute to crop and livestock productivity significantly in some regions (e.g. the Sahel); fruit and vegetable consumption is highest in SSA in areas of high tree cover

Provision of essential ecosystem services

CRP6 Proposal for Forests, Trees and Agroforestry, 2011

Natural Resources for Food Production: Genetic Resources Presently, the world’s food comes just from

103 plant species based on calories, protein and fat supply.

Maize, wheat, rice and sugar supply almost 60% of the calories and proteins in the human diet

Breeds of five main livestock species provide the bulk of global food supply

But 7, 000 plants have been used by humans for food, 1,400 crop wild relatives are considered to be important for food security (e.g. for phenotype or genotype traits)

Natural Resources for Food Production: Genetic Resources About 900 cultivated plant species and 22% of

the more than 8,000 animal breeds are threatened by extinction

Crucial importance of associated biodiversity: pollinators, soil microorganisms... Much less known

Land use change and unsustainable practices are major threats to biodiversity. At the same time when biodiversity is essential to increase resilience of agro ecosystems to risks and global changes.

Natural Resources for Food Production: Landscapes and Ecosystem Services

For individual resources to be healthy and sustainably productive, their integrated management is important at landscape and other scales

Examples: improved management of farmland and yield increases helped to reduce conversion of forests and other lands; retention of natural vegetation helps to prevent sedimentation into fisheries and provides environment for pollinators

Ecoagriculture Partners (2012) found a growing number of integrated management of landscapes, with involvement of key stakeholders: agriculture-pastoral-wildlife managed landscapes in east and

southern Africa watershed rehabilitation in China and India tree crop and ecotourism landscapes in Central America

Global availability/local accessibility? Land and water are unequally distributed Adequate management requires investment The distribution does not always favor the

countries which are relying the more on natural resources for their growth

Population growth and climate change could increase discrepancies between needs and availability

Ex: Niger, Mali, Burkina Fasso

Distribution: land

Regions Cultivated land

(million ha)

Population (million)

Cultivated land per capita (ha)

Low-income

countries

441 2 651 0.17

Middle-income

countries

735 3 223 0.23

High-income

countries

380 1031 0.37

Total 1 556 6 905 0.23

Water: some critical areas Northern Africa: withdrawals exceed

renewable resources Middle East, China, parts of USA, parts of

India: water tables decline significantly Western, Central and South Asia: severe water

shortages

SSA: lack of investments

Trends in fertilizer use

Systems at risk

Systems at risk densely populated highlands in poor areas; small holder rainfed farming in semi-arid

tropics; densely populated and intensely cultivated

areas in the Mediterranean basin intensive rainfed cropping in temperate

climate; irrigated rice-based systems; crops depending on irrigation by

groundwater; rangelands on fragile soils; deltas and coastal areas; periurban agriculture.

Access to resources The poorest and the more vulnerable, women,

indigenous people, poor fisherfolks, are the more at risk of not having or losing access to resources

Increasing prices could intensify competition for resources

Resource efficiency for food security Multiple inputs: land, water, nutrients, genetic

resources. Optimizing the use of one often requires the other. (+ knowledge)

Multiple outputs: produce, income, diet (ecosystem services). They do not always go together.

Different levels: farm, landscape, food chains

Improving resource efficiency At field level

At landscape level

Along food chains

At broader levels: diets, trade

Global Food Losses Throughout the Food Chain for Selected Commodities

Addressing resource challenges Assessments of resources

Measurements of resource use/systems, practices and of associated economic, social, environmental performance/impact

Governance of natural resources: multi stakeholder, multiresources, multipurposes (landscape)

Transfer of resources (water, fish stocks)

Systems, practices, technologies Promote wide practice of integrated natural

resource management from field to landscape, including soil conservation, minimum tillage, use of organic nutrients, agroforestry, rainwater harvesting, micro-irrigation, integrated crop-livestock, rotational grazing, watershed protection, biodiversity corridors…..

Develop dissemination systems that encompass experiential learning and sharing of knowledge

Promote collaboration across sectors for effective management all important resources for food production and ecosystem services.

A food chain approach, involving all economic actors

Policies Harmonize policies across sector – empower

local governments to design and implement locally relevant programmes

More efficient, food, input and credit markets are needed and supporting infrastructure development

Long term commitment towards NRM objectives More attention to NRM related policy

instruments such as property rights, rewards for environmental services, longer term finance,

More investment in research in agriculture and NRM

Research, knowledge Assessments

gaps in resource assessments (e.g. in soils) measures and assessments of resource efficiency the ex-ante assessment of consequences of resource

degradation and investments in natural resource management

Using assessments to design tests of integrated NRM practices at different scales

Monitoring effects of technical, institutional and policy innovations in NRM

Developing a variety of dissemination products for development and policy stakeholders

Priority areas for action FAO/CGIAR1. There is a need to have a clearer picture of resource

“availability’ (land, water, biomass,…) and of how it can respond to growing and competing demands

2. There is an urgent need to develop approaches and data banks that consider at the same time all aspects and impacts of resource management

3. Change the way to do research and dissemination, more local specific and farmer centered

4. Improving governance for sustainable management of natural resources, at every level, requires shared understanding of the issues, adequate assessment and monitoring tools and appropriate institutions and policies to engage all stakeholders, including with adequate science/policy interfaces