principles of ecology: resources and economic growth lecture ii november 11, 2010 karl seeley, phd...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Principles of Ecology:Resources and economic growth
Lecture IINovember 11, 2010
Karl Seeley, PhDHartwick College, Oneonta NY
![Page 2: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
• Processes of economics– Markets link distribution, allocation, and
production• Modern growth
– Investment, innovation, and resources• Industrial revolution
![Page 3: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Review of lessons from ecosystems
• 1st and 2nd Laws of Thermodynamics• Species play different functions
– Competition, but also co-dependence• Less energy means less activity• Physical conditions shape networks and distribution
of energy stores• Ecosystems can be “subsidized” from elsewhere
Their productivity can’t be replicated everywhere• Some dependencies may not be obvious to the
“participants”
![Page 4: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Summary summary
• Potential biomass and species abundance depend on inorganic conditions– Insolation, temperature, water availability,
soil/weathering• Ability to realize that potential depends on the
functioning of the system that arises there
![Page 5: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
“Purpose” of ecosystems?
• Schneider & Sagan, Into the Cool (2005)– Nature abhors a (thermodynamic) gradient– The “purpose” of ecosystems (and other
structures) is to degrade gradients– Left to themselves, systems will tend to evolve in
the direction of greater utilization of gradients• Systems that do a better job will displace others
![Page 6: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Trees
Labor
Land
Tools
Palace
Meat
Grain
Trees, labor, tools
Labor, land, tools
Land, labor, tools, trees
Nobles
Peasants
Abroad
Grain
Palace, meat,grain
Grain, (meat)
Luxuries
Investment
Production
Allo
catio
n
Dist
ributi
on
Trade
Processes of economics(in blue)
OutputsInputs Final users
Consumption
![Page 7: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Processes
• Allocation– Directing inputs toward production of different
things• Production
– Determines what people are able to use, for all sorts of purposes
• Distribution– Consumption, Investment, Government
![Page 8: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Distribution I
• Consumption– Who gets to consume how much?– Of what?
• Investment– Car factory? Chip factory?– Power plant? Home insulation? Wind turbines?– A factory to make wind turbines
![Page 9: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Distribution II
• What will government do?– More police? More soldiers?– Roads? Schools?– R&D
• Govt. activities are a mix of consumption (public safety, schools, regulation) and investment (roads, weapons)
![Page 10: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Simple agriculture, with manufacturing
Sun AnimalsPlants
• All economic activity is about using human energy for a combination of
Hum.
Manufacturing
– Modifying materials– Controlling flows of energy– Using those controlled flows to modify materials– Using modified materials and controlled energy to express and
disseminate ideas (culture)• Economics focuses on the control gates …
… but neglects what it is that’s being controlled
Tools, etc.
Better human ability to capture, control, and apply energy
![Page 11: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Trees
Labor
Land
Tools
Palace
Meat
Grain
Trees, labor, tools
Labor, land, tools
Land, labor, tools, trees
Nobles
Peasants
Abroad
Grain
Palace, meat,grain
Grain, (meat)
Luxuries
Investment
Production
Allo
catio
n
Dist
ributi
on
Trade
Processes of economics(in blue)
OutputsInputs Final users
Trees
Meat
Grain
Trees, labor, tools
Labor, land, tools
Land, labor, tools, trees
Labor
Grain, (meat)
Tools
Palace, meat,grain
Grain
Labor, land, tools
Land, labor, tools, trees
Trees, labor, tools
Land, labor, tools, trees
Trees, labor, tools
Consumption
![Page 12: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
Processes of economics(in blue)
Trees
Labor
Land
Tools
Palace
Meat
Grain
Trees, labor, tools
Labor, land, tools
Land, labor, tools, trees
Nobles
Peasants
Abroad
Grain
Palace, meat,grain
Grain, (meat)
Luxuries
Investment
Production
Allo
catio
n
Dis
trib
ution
Trade
OutputsInputs Final users
Trees
Meat
Grain
Trees, labor, tools
Labor, land, tools
Land, labor, tools, trees
Labor
Grain, (meat)
Tools
Palace, meat,grain
Grain
Labor, land, tools
Land, labor, tools, trees
Trees, labor, tools
Land, labor, tools, trees
Trees, labor, tools
The processes of economics are supported by the processes of ecology
The economic process is constrained by the functioning of the ecosystem
Trees
Labor
Land
Tools
Palace
Meat
Grain
Trees, labor, tools
Labor, land, tools
Land, labor, tools, trees
Nobles
Peasants
Abroad
Grain
Palace, meat,grain
Grain, (meat)
Luxuries
Investment
Production
Allo
catio
n
Dist
ributi
on
Trade
OutputsInputs Final users
Trees
Meat
Grain
Trees, labor, tools
Labor, land, tools
Land, labor, tools, trees
Labor
Grain, (meat)
Tools
Palace, meat,grain
Grain
Labor, land, tools
Land, labor, tools, trees
Trees, labor, tools
Land, labor, tools, trees
Trees, labor, tools
Consumption
![Page 13: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Connecting the parts• The economy chooses what to produce by
allocating available inputs and applying existing technology
• You can only allocate what’s available– Availability is from interaction among nature,
exploration, research, discovery, innovation, and investment
• Markets are our default way of determining allocation, distribution, and investment– Politics shape government’s role in those
![Page 14: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Reallocation
Steel, computer chips, etc.
Production of machinery for Hummer
Production of machinery for Super-Prius
Capital to make Hummers
Production of Hummers
Capital to make Super-Priuses
Production of Super-Priuses
Consumption of Super-Priuses
Consumption of Hummers
AllocationInputs Production Distribution Consumption
![Page 15: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Interconnected Markets
• Changes in demands for final products drive changes in demands for inputs
Markets tend to connect changes in distribution back to changes in allocation– Other systems also have to have ways of making
those connections• What if changed conditions make production
cheaper?
![Page 16: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
Cheaper productionP
Q
If you build the necessary machines,Supply curve for stuff in general moves to the rightPrice may fall somewhat, but definitely sell a lot more
Make more moneyWhat makes for cheaper production?- Cheap resources- Technological innovation
Output in general
![Page 17: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
The growth of capitalCheaper production methods mean that new capital will be highly profitableSo demand for capital …… increasesCheaper production methods also mean that the supply of capital …… increases
P
QCapital
![Page 18: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
The virtuous circle of growth
• More capital is produced;• at stable or falling prices;• leading to more demand for raw materials;• so more incentive to increase production of
inputs to capital:– Coal mines, ore mines, foundries, machine works,
canals, …
![Page 19: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Capital and allocation
• Profitability of investment:– Shapes distribution, toward investment
• Displacing consumption
– Increases capital– Increases availability of resources
Allows more productionBoth consumption and future investment can
increase• Investment is a physical process tied to growth
![Page 20: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Allocation and resources
• Allocation is done out of what’s available• Availability is interaction among:
– Nature– Exploration– Resource discovery– Innovation– Investment
![Page 21: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Growth: the standard list
• Saving and investment– More capital makes workers more productive
• Innovation– Better capital makes workers more productive
• Trade– Each side concentrates on its relative strength
• Resource boomJeffrey Sachs, The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities For Our Time
(2006)
![Page 22: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
The growth cycleSaving
Investment
Increased, improved
capital
Increased outputOutput
Consumption
B. InnovationA. Innovation
![Page 23: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
The growth cycle, with resourcesSaving
Investment
Increased, improved
capital
Increased outputOutput
Potential resourcesAvailable resources
Capital
Consumption
B. InnovationA. Innovation
![Page 24: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Stages of industrial growth
• For each of the following developments, identify:– How it contributes to growth– How it depends on human action– How it depends on resources– How it depends on previous stages
![Page 25: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
Spread of mechanization
• Allows each worker to produce a greater quantity of things
• Allows more uniformity (easier substitutability), often higher quality
• Innovation to design it, investment to implement it• Requires appropriate water situation
![Page 26: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
Canals
• Reduced costs of transport– Increased benefits of trade
• Cheaper access to additional resources (e.g., coal)– But can be accomplished using horses and human labor
• Not yet machinery that can accomplish the work
• Large investment (building canals, plus boats)• Landscape and water courses only partially
surmountable– Water still has to come from somewhere to fill them
![Page 27: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
http://www.eriecanal.org/maps.html
![Page 28: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
http://www.eriecanal.org/maps.html
![Page 29: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
http://www.eriecanal.org/locks.html
![Page 30: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
http://www.archives.nysed.gov/projects/eriecanal/essays/ec_larkin4.shtml
![Page 31: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
http://www.norwayheritage.com/gallery/gallery.asp?action=viewimage&imageid=1562&text=&categoryid=16&box=&shownew=
The Erie Canal and the Little Falls on the Mohawk River
![Page 32: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
http://news.bbc.co.uk/media/images/39285000/jpg/_39285689_canal300245.jpg
http://en.structurae.de/files/photos/64/lgv_est_europeenne/p1100439.jpg
![Page 33: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Erie Canal trade, 1825
• Eastbound:– 562,000 bushels of wheat– 221,000 barrels of flour– 435,000 gallons of whiskey– 32 million board feet of lumber– 185,000 tons of eastbound cargo
• Westbound:– 32,000 tons
• Mostly manufactured goods
http://www.archives.nysed.gov/projects/eriecanal/essays/ec_larkin4.shtml:
![Page 34: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
Later Erie Canal trade
• 1845: 1,000,000 tons• 1852: 2,000,000 tons• 1860: 1,896,975 eastbound
379,000 westbound• 1862: 3,000,000 + (Civil War)• 1880: 4,608,651 (largest amount)
http://www.archives.nysed.gov/projects/eriecanal/essays/ec_larkin4.shtml:
![Page 35: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
Cost savings
– Before the opening of the Erie Canal, Genesee Valley wheat took 20 days to reach Albany by wagon.
– The cost to move a ton of wheat was $100.– With the completion of the canal, a ton of wheat
could make the trip all the way to New York City in just 10 days
for only $5 in transportation charges.
http://www.archives.nysed.gov/projects/eriecanal/essays/ec_larkin4.shtml:
![Page 36: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
Direct costs and benefits
• Cost $7,500,000 to build, over about 15 years• 1862 alone: $4,500,000 in state tolls collected• 1820-1882 (toll collection ceased):
$121,000,000 collected
![Page 37: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
Indirect benefits
• Stimulus to agriculture in Great Lakes basin• Cheap food for New York City
– And anywhere reachable from NYC by water• Expanded market for NYC manufacturing
– And anywhere that could reach NYC by water• Cheaper manufactured goods for Great Lakes
basin
![Page 38: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Both pictures from http://campfire.theoildrum.com/node/6103
Draft animals can pull ~10x more in a canal boat than in a cart
Simple canals can be built with relatively low energy use- Early industrial ones built with animal and human labor
![Page 39: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Coal in ferrous industry
• Increases the supply of metal– Lower cost, greater quantity– Can be used more widely—better mechanization
• Figuring out how to access and use it, building the foundries that use it
• Coal needs to be accessible, found, extracted• Canals make coal more widely available
![Page 40: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
Improved metal working
• Machines get bigger, stronger, more efficient, more reliable
• New techniques allow for improved metal working• Cheap and abundant metal makes it worth inventing
and implementing those techniques• That requires coal, the application of coal to metal
production, and the cheap transport of coal in canals
![Page 41: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
Further steps
• Group I: Increased use of metal• Group II: Increased scale of
manufacturing• Group III: Coal for stationary
power• Group IV: Coal for transportation• Group V: Oil• Group VI: Electricity
Plastics• Group VII: Communications,
electronics
•Contribution to growth•How it depends on human action
•How it depends on resources
•How it depends on previous stages
![Page 42: Principles of Ecology: Resources and economic growth Lecture II November 11, 2010 Karl Seeley, PhD Hartwick College, Oneonta NY](https://reader034.vdocuments.site/reader034/viewer/2022051516/56649e365503460f94b262d9/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Reading for Nov. 12, 16• Hall, C.A.S., Day, J.W. Jr. 2009. “Revisiting the
limits to growth after peak oil,” American Scientist 97:230-237– http://www.esf.edu/efb/hall/2009-05Hall0327.pdf– Identify an important argument against the idea of
limits to growth– Provide Hall & Day’s response to that argument– What is the relationship between technological
innovation and resource use?
• Write a paragraph with your general reaction to the article