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TROUW PRICE TREND August 2017

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Page 1: PRICE TREND - TN Asia Pacific...Milling Wheat (NYSE Liffe) 168.75 178.25 171.00 180.50 177.00 176.00 169.75 169.00 Variances 2017-30 2017-29 Weekly 2017 YTD Avg. 2016 YTD Avg. YTD

TROUW PRICETRENDAugust 2017

Page 2: PRICE TREND - TN Asia Pacific...Milling Wheat (NYSE Liffe) 168.75 178.25 171.00 180.50 177.00 176.00 169.75 169.00 Variances 2017-30 2017-29 Weekly 2017 YTD Avg. 2016 YTD Avg. YTD

Dear Madam, Sir,

Here with the Trouw Price Trends on Market Report (August 2017). Our Market Report contains useful information for your procurement and purchasing team as well. In case you would like us to send it directly to your team from now on, please inform us by sending us their email addresses and their function. We would be pleased to facilitate this for you. Hopefully this information will be sufficient.

With this information we shares our goals to enable customers to purchase sustainable nutritional solu-tions, we continued engage with our partners in the feed-to-food value chain to establish, control and manage systems for sourcing sustainable raw materials in a responsible way.

In each issue of our Trouw Price Trends information we are pleased to keep sharing the latest updates on the world grain market as well as raw materials information with you, our prestigious customers.

Together we will have stronger partnership in exchanging information to keep our industry growing andhave more sustainable future.

With our best regards,

Trouw Nutrition Team

Page 3: PRICE TREND - TN Asia Pacific...Milling Wheat (NYSE Liffe) 168.75 178.25 171.00 180.50 177.00 176.00 169.75 169.00 Variances 2017-30 2017-29 Weekly 2017 YTD Avg. 2016 YTD Avg. YTD

For further references please visit the following links at Trouw Nutrition website :

Feed Outlook August 2017Click here

Market PerspectiveAugust 2017Click here

Grain Market ReportAugust 2017Click here

Wasde Market ReportAugust 2017Click here

Page 4: PRICE TREND - TN Asia Pacific...Milling Wheat (NYSE Liffe) 168.75 178.25 171.00 180.50 177.00 176.00 169.75 169.00 Variances 2017-30 2017-29 Weekly 2017 YTD Avg. 2016 YTD Avg. YTD

WHEAT: Projected 2017/18 U.S. wheat supplies are lowered this month on reduced U.S. wheat production more than offsetting higher beginning stocks and imports. Forecast 2017/18 U.S. wheat production is lowered 64 million bushels to 1,760 million. The NASS July Crop Produc-tion report provides survey-based production forecasts for all wheat classes for the first time in the 2017/18 crop year. The production forecasts for durum and other spring wheat indicat-ed a significant decline compared to last year for these two classes primarily due to severe drought conditions affecting the Northern Plains. Partially offsetting this decrease is higher winter wheat production on both higher harvested acreage and yield. Projected exports and feed and residual usage are lowered to 975 and 150 million bushels, respectively, largely on the reduction in durum and other spring wheat supplies. Projected 2017/18 ending stocks are raised 14 million bushels to 938 million this month, but are 21 percent lower than last year’s revised stocks. The 2017/18 season-average farm price is raised $0.50 per bushel at the midpoint to a projected range of $4.40 to $5.20.

Global 2017/18 wheat supplies are decreased fractionally on lower production forecasts for the U.S., Australia, China, and the EU, which are partially offset by higher production expect-ed for Russia and Turkey. Russia’s wheat production is increased by 3.0 million tons to 72.0 million as growing conditions to date are similar to last year when Russia achieved record yields.

Page 5: PRICE TREND - TN Asia Pacific...Milling Wheat (NYSE Liffe) 168.75 178.25 171.00 180.50 177.00 176.00 169.75 169.00 Variances 2017-30 2017-29 Weekly 2017 YTD Avg. 2016 YTD Avg. YTD

Developments last 8 Weeks 2017-23 2017-24 2017-25 2017-26 2017-27 2017-28 2017-29 2017-30

Soybeans (US No.1, Yellow) 352.92 355.12 353.56 347.31 373.77 388.28 374.96 378.45Wheat (US No.2, Soft red winter wheat) 177.56 179.67 189.59 182.52 219.17 216.60 198.50 187.76Maize (US No.2, Yellow) 159.93 161.41 157.08 152.85 162.30 164.66 155.90 151.47

Variances 2017-30 2017-29 Weekly ▲ 2017 YTD Avg. 2016 YTD Avg. YTD avg. ▲ FY 2016 avg. YTD'17/FY'16▲

Soybeans (US No.1, Yellow) 378.45 374.96 ↑ 1% 374.22 382.77 ↓ -2% 382.77 ↓ -2%Wheat (US No.2, Soft red winter wheat) 187.76 198.50 ↓ -5% 180.26 176.14 ↑ 2% 176.14 ↑ 2%Maize (US No.2, Yellow) 151.47 155.90 ↓ -3% 158.85 159.19 ↓ -0% 159.19 ↓ -0%

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Page 6: PRICE TREND - TN Asia Pacific...Milling Wheat (NYSE Liffe) 168.75 178.25 171.00 180.50 177.00 176.00 169.75 169.00 Variances 2017-30 2017-29 Weekly 2017 YTD Avg. 2016 YTD Avg. YTD

Developments last 8 Weeks 2017-23 2017-24 2017-25 2017-26 2017-27 2017-28 2017-29 2017-30

Milling Wheat (NYSE Liffe) 168.75 178.25 171.00 180.50 177.00 176.00 169.75 169.00

Variances 2017-30 2017-29 Weekly ▲ 2017 YTD Avg. 2016 YTD Avg. YTD avg. ▲ FY 2016 avg. YTD'17/FY'16▲

Milling Wheat (NYSE Liffe) 169.00 169.75 ↓ -0.4% 169.68 159.65 ↑ 6% 159.65 ↑ 6%

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Page 7: PRICE TREND - TN Asia Pacific...Milling Wheat (NYSE Liffe) 168.75 178.25 171.00 180.50 177.00 176.00 169.75 169.00 Variances 2017-30 2017-29 Weekly 2017 YTD Avg. 2016 YTD Avg. YTD

Notes: Futures contracts are priced in USD/short ton (approx. 0.91 metric ton). For the CME Group futures, the date of expiration of the contract (and therefore the length of the contract) can be deduced via the ticker code in grey in the middle of the graph. H=March, K=May, N=July, U=September, Z=Dec followed by the year. The futures contracts displayed here vary in expiration but can range from 1-6 months. Sources: CME Group, Barchart.com

Soybean meal, corn and wheat futures

Page 8: PRICE TREND - TN Asia Pacific...Milling Wheat (NYSE Liffe) 168.75 178.25 171.00 180.50 177.00 176.00 169.75 169.00 Variances 2017-30 2017-29 Weekly 2017 YTD Avg. 2016 YTD Avg. YTD

C H I L E FISHING

In Chile North: Fishing ban was lifted on February 01st. Catches started rather fine, despite there are some areas with under size anchovy. More than 20 ThMT were landed after only 5 days. South of Peru also is fishing well. Let’s hope catches remain fine to recover better fishing levels this year. In Chile South: Last week, 9th and XIV Regions (Valdivia area), still were under sardine and anchovy ban, but it was lifted this week (on February 07th). Fishing started fine, with good size of fish and good oil yield. In the 8th region (Concepcion area), sardine ban will last until March 05th. Jack mackerel fishing remain very poor.

MARKET Chile remain with almost no activity, with very low stock to trade.

PERUIMARPE considers that the current warming phenomenon is clearly coastal and regional, calling it THE NIÑO COASTAL.

The fundamental factor is the performance of ANTICYCLON, which in the second half of January practically collapsed, stopped blowing which brought invasion of residual tropical waters of the previous Child and is not originated by any Kelvin wave. The erratic cyclone has been observed for 5 years, so we have been in the hot stage.

The fundamental difference between a COASTAL NIÑO and a conventional one, is the duration, while the local phenomenon take weeks the conventional el NIÑO is for months. The present must last for the duration of the Summer.

Currently anchovy larvae have been found in very good condition, which suggests that they are resisting this phenomenon.

In Pisco, where it has not been affected artisanal anchovy fishing is very good.

Page 9: PRICE TREND - TN Asia Pacific...Milling Wheat (NYSE Liffe) 168.75 178.25 171.00 180.50 177.00 176.00 169.75 169.00 Variances 2017-30 2017-29 Weekly 2017 YTD Avg. 2016 YTD Avg. YTD

IMARPE, in view of the climatic changes has determined to make a EUREKA operation with 14 industrial fishing boats from February 20 x 5 days to make a study of the distribution of anchovy, spawning, temperature and salinity, and according to

that find, they would make a cruise from the 26 of February by 38 days.

In Peru, market remain active this week, increasing volume of pre-sales, for delivery in May/June, reaching now to over 100 thousand tonnes, against new quota, which is unknown yet. However rumors say it will be 3 millions tons. If so, future commitments are now about 15 percent of future productions.

The price of this presale is US$1500-1530/mt CFR China for Super Prime fishmeal.although some operations has been recently concluded at levels slightly below that number with open qualities, with a USD 50/ton gap between Super and Prime.

•The price of fishoil US$1450 and going down. During this week therewas internal sales to DSM for omega, more or less 10.000mt, therefore unsold stock are close to 50.000mt

TASA sold last week 1000mt in containers at US$1500/mt CFR Chile, that means US$1.440/mt Fob including freight and the bag.

Page 10: PRICE TREND - TN Asia Pacific...Milling Wheat (NYSE Liffe) 168.75 178.25 171.00 180.50 177.00 176.00 169.75 169.00 Variances 2017-30 2017-29 Weekly 2017 YTD Avg. 2016 YTD Avg. YTD

Market developments PowdersAt the moment prices of SMP and SWP feed are moving up again. It seems that as soon as SMP feed is going below 1700 euro, a lot of people start buying again. Cheese prices are still at high levels and a lot of milk is going to the cheese production. More cheese means more whey. That is the reason why SWP went down from 900 euro towards levels of 850 euro. The other reason is that Dairy prices in USA are lower than in the EU. It remains difficult to predict the price development for Dairy commodities in the coming months. It is fair to assume that we will see higher prices in the coming weeks, but we also have too much SMP stocks in EU to avoid a very high increase. We will see prices moving up and down, like we have seen also over the last 24 months. As long as we have 350,000 MT SMP on Stock in the EU, we will not see prices well above 2000 euro. It seems that demand from China is picking up and they are importing significantly more dairy commodities. Cream and Cheese prices are still at very high levels and this will have a positive impact on the milk price towards the farmers.

Market developments GeneralWhat will happen in the coming months and maybe even in the coming year? We will see a very volatile market, due to several reasons: • USD / EURO exchange rate will have impact on world market prices. From 1.06 towards 1.17!!!• High milk price will stimulate farmers to milk more.• Crude oil price will have influence on the world commodity prices.• Current and still low prices will have a positive impact on demand.• Huge stocks in the EU and higher than normal stocks in USA will have a negative impact on prices.• What will happen with the huge intervention stocks in EU and what will be the impact?• New season in New Zealand is looking very good, more supply – more export.• Prices will move up and down like they have done over the last 3 years.• In Aug / Sept New Zealand will enter their milking season again and then all regions produce milk.

Page 11: PRICE TREND - TN Asia Pacific...Milling Wheat (NYSE Liffe) 168.75 178.25 171.00 180.50 177.00 176.00 169.75 169.00 Variances 2017-30 2017-29 Weekly 2017 YTD Avg. 2016 YTD Avg. YTD

Market developments vegetable FatsThe situation with respect to Coconut oil has not changed. Supply is tight and prices are still very high for short-term delivery. August delivery is even above 2200 euro at the moment. From September onwards we see the price decreasing from 2000 euro in September to 1700 euro in the month afterwards.Still extreme high prices and as long as supply is not improving we will have a high premium for short-term delivery. Palm oil price is lower and around 680 for short-term delivery and 640 euro for longer ahead. We do not expect that price of palm oil will go down much further.

Page 12: PRICE TREND - TN Asia Pacific...Milling Wheat (NYSE Liffe) 168.75 178.25 171.00 180.50 177.00 176.00 169.75 169.00 Variances 2017-30 2017-29 Weekly 2017 YTD Avg. 2016 YTD Avg. YTD

Developments last 8 Months 2016-10 2016-11 2016-12 2017-1 2017-2 2017-3 2017-4 2017-5

EU average 29.13 30.86 32.09 32.94 33.44 33.23 33.03 33.28US average 33.74 38.78 41.34 39.77 34.01 37.17 35.67 35.40Oceania average 32.31 32.96 33.23 33.36 33.53 32.38 32.84 31.78

Variances 2017-5 2017-4 Monthly ▲ 2017 YTD Avg. 2016 YTD Avg. YTD avg. ▲ FY 2016 avg. YTD'17/FY'16▲

EU average 33.28 33.03 ↑ 1% 33.18 27.73 ↑ 20% 27.73 ↑ 20%US average 35.40 35.67 ↓ -1% 36.40 34.04 ↑ 7% 34.04 ↑ 7%Oceania average 31.78 32.84 ↓ -3% 32.78 25.54 ↑ 28% 25.54 ↑ 28%

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Page 13: PRICE TREND - TN Asia Pacific...Milling Wheat (NYSE Liffe) 168.75 178.25 171.00 180.50 177.00 176.00 169.75 169.00 Variances 2017-30 2017-29 Weekly 2017 YTD Avg. 2016 YTD Avg. YTD

Lysine market:Tendency: Stable.Markets are in general quiet and stable for the coming months as demand for Q3 is mainly covered. Chinese producers are well booked for Q3 exports, also summer period is used for maintenance reducing their output availability. Demand for domestic market in China is improving and allowing producers to increase prices step by step again, after the drop seen in the past few months.Price is around 1.40 – 1,45 usd$/kg. Methionine Tendency: UpThere was several attempts by producers to stabilize and increase prices from current low levels eventhough accepting less sales. This is changing the sentiment in the market and in China producers stopped offering, indicating price increases. Large part of Q3 is already covered those who have not covered will face higher prices. Price is around 2.80 – 3.10 usd$/kg Threonine: Tendency: Stable - firm.The price of Threonine is stable, but the supply is quite tight with most of the suppliers stops offering due to maintenance and therefore limited volume left. Price is around 1.57-1.65 usd$/kg

Tryptophan: Tendency: Stable .Market remains tight for this months. Availability predicted to improve by end August / September.Price is around 10,50-11.00 usd$/kg

Page 14: PRICE TREND - TN Asia Pacific...Milling Wheat (NYSE Liffe) 168.75 178.25 171.00 180.50 177.00 176.00 169.75 169.00 Variances 2017-30 2017-29 Weekly 2017 YTD Avg. 2016 YTD Avg. YTD

General info: It’s been a shocking weeks recently, after price jump on Vit D3 500, another huge price changing happened for Calpan and B1 Mono. Other items are relatively stable and might be follow soon. Almost no vitamin is downward. Main issue seems that all producers move to the same direction by stop offer and open new offer with new prices. In September, China factories scheduled to resume production after long overhaul, it will give more figure whether these high prices are still going on or decrease. However, Not to forget, environment issues are still there and put huge pressure on production output.

Vit A price is firming up. There is strong signal of Vit A price moving up as local demand in China is increase. Supply is tight. Price is about USD 36-38.

Vit B1 mono price is up. Starting last week suddenly China producers stop quoting. News spread out that one producer offer at USD 88/kg. Price is around USD 80-90.

Vit B2 price is stable. China producers are in maintenance period, but material are available in the market. Price is around USD 25-26.

Vit B3 (Niacinamide) price is soften. Rawmat (beta picolline) price is still high, however the demand is slow. Price is around USD 7.50-8.00

Calpan price is jump up. Existing producers take advantage on the delay production from new producer. Since last week, producers stop offering and there are not much stock at the market. Price now is about USD 80-85.

Page 15: PRICE TREND - TN Asia Pacific...Milling Wheat (NYSE Liffe) 168.75 178.25 171.00 180.50 177.00 176.00 169.75 169.00 Variances 2017-30 2017-29 Weekly 2017 YTD Avg. 2016 YTD Avg. YTD

Vit B6 price is stable at the high side. Producer is under maintenance for summer season. Delivery and supply is still tight, but the biggest producer of B6 don’t want to increase price further so it won’t attract new comer. Price is about USD 38-39.

Folic acid price is stable. Folic acid production is heavily polluting and due to the current environmental control. The expectation is that factories might be forced to limit their output. Stock are still plenty in the market, no shortage. Price is around USD 36-39.

Vit B12, Price is stable and maybe up. Supply start going to be limited, producers stop quoting. Vit B12 0.1% price is about USD 3.4-3.6/kg.

Vit C series prices are stable to up. The main producers in China are shut down due to extended summer maintenance. Production costs are increasing and environmental regulations is very strict.

Vit D3 500 price is stable at high side. Market is quite. Producers still hold offer and only traders do offer and taking profit. Customers tend to buy AD3 instead of D3 as single. Price is around USD 40-45/kg.

Vit E50 price is stable with a bit down tendency. There’s still a downward trend for Vit E50 and it reached bottom already. Some producers had stop offering and some limited their production but still it didn’t bring up the price. But the prediction is vit E50 price will be bounce back soon following other vitamins. Price is about USD 5.2-6.0.

Inositol price is stable. Supply and demand are balance. Price is about USD 5.00-5.50

Biotin price is up. The main producers stop quoting to the market and also stop for maintenance. Traders start to buying goods from market and driving the price up. Biotin pure price offered around USD 500-550.

Vit K3 MNB price is stable at the high side. Producers intend to keep the price stable during summer and indicate a further up afterwards, due to tight supply and expensive price of raw material. Price is about USD 21-23.

Page 16: PRICE TREND - TN Asia Pacific...Milling Wheat (NYSE Liffe) 168.75 178.25 171.00 180.50 177.00 176.00 169.75 169.00 Variances 2017-30 2017-29 Weekly 2017 YTD Avg. 2016 YTD Avg. YTD

Copper: Up Copper Metal went up very fast in end of July. Supply of Copper is still tight and has to be bought 2

months ahead to secure the supply from Russia. Prices from Mexico also moved up.

Manganous Oxide Market Trend: Stable After very exiting period during Q2 the market is stable. Manganese

metal is still priced in the higher range and we don’t see that this will change quickly. One big producer is

producing again, but have huge back log orders to be delivered. Only Q4 they will be back in the market for

fresh quotes.

Zinc Oxide : Market trend: Up LME zinc prices have increase around 14% during last month. This impact the spot

purchase of ZnO Immediately to higher levels. In Aug, we should have more clear direction if this price level will

hold till year end.

Zinc Sulfate: Market trend: Stable The sulphate is not following the LME metal price. The EU suppliers have still long lead times. China producers are more willing to offer. No significant pressure on this item.

Page 17: PRICE TREND - TN Asia Pacific...Milling Wheat (NYSE Liffe) 168.75 178.25 171.00 180.50 177.00 176.00 169.75 169.00 Variances 2017-30 2017-29 Weekly 2017 YTD Avg. 2016 YTD Avg. YTD

Magnesium Oxide. Up. Due to environmental inspections and plant closures in China supply is starting to become tight and prices are rising.

Sodium Selenite. Stable to Down. Metal prices is soften which will lead to lower sodium selenite prices.

Cobalt. Up. Cobalt metal continues to increase and it’s expected it will do so for the coming months.

Iodine. Stable to Up. Dollar prices for iodine compounds are increasing slightly as predicted.

Page 18: PRICE TREND - TN Asia Pacific...Milling Wheat (NYSE Liffe) 168.75 178.25 171.00 180.50 177.00 176.00 169.75 169.00 Variances 2017-30 2017-29 Weekly 2017 YTD Avg. 2016 YTD Avg. YTD

Disclaimer: Trouw Nutrition does not warrant or make any representations regarding the use, validity, accuracy, or reliability of, or the results of the use of, or otherwise respecting, the information/data in this report.

Trouw Price Trends is an external e-newsletter provided by Trouw Nutrition.

TPT0013/17/TNAP

For further information please contact Ms. Karren Kim at [email protected]