presidential vice and virtue poll sep 7 - vote common good€¦ · after rating the two candidates...

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PresidentialCandidateViceandVirtuePoll:Swing State Evangelical and Catholic Perceptions of Donald J. Trump and Joseph R. Biden September7,2020SurveyDesignandDataAnalysis:DavidNeal,Ph.D.CatalystBehavioralSciences,DukeUniversityProfessorWendyWood,Ph.D.UniversityofSouthernCaliforniaProfessorDanBauer,Ph.D.UniversityofNorthCarolina–ChapelHillAsafMazar,UniversityofSouthernCaliforniaConnieRodman,CatalystBehavioralSciencesVictorSettles,UniversityofMarylandCollegeParkDanielEpstein,DanielEpstein&Associates

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SurveyAimsandKeyContentThissurveywasdesignedtomeasurethe2020Presidentialvotingintentionsofswingstate(Florida,Michigan,NorthCarolina,PennsylvaniaorWisconsin)EvangelicalandCatholicregisteredvoters.Inaddition,thesurveymeasuredrespondents’perceptionsofthemoralcharacterofDonaldJ.TrumpandJosephR.Biden.Giventhesurvey’sfocusonChristianvoters,moralcharacterwasdefinedusingtheBiblicalconceptsofthe7cardinalvirtues(kindness,generosity,humility,chastity,modesty,diligenceandpatience)andthe7deadlysins(lust,sloth,greed,wrath,gluttony,envyandpride).Afterratingthetwocandidatesseparatelyoneachsinandvirtue,respondentsansweredaseriesofadditionalquestionsincluding(a)who,ifanyone,theyvotedforin2016(b)who,ifanyone,theyintendtovoteforin2020,(c)howtheyevaluateDonaldTrump’sperformance/JoeBiden’slikelyperformanceinvariouspolicycontentareas,(d)whotheybelieveJesuswouldvoteforintheupcomingelection,and(e)howtheyevaluatethe2020Democraticcandidate(JoeBiden)versusthe2016Democraticcandidate(HillaryClinton).Candidateorderandresponseoptionswererandomizedacrossrespondentstopreventordereffects.SurveySamplingandMarginsofErrorAtotalof1430respondents(792Evangelicalsand638Catholics)weresurveyedonlinebetweenAugust11-26th2020.Allrespondentswereregisteredvotersattheircurrentaddressandresidedinoneof5swingstates:Florida,Michigan,NorthCarolina,PennsylvaniaorWisconsin.262to308surveyswereconductedineachstate.Uniquequotasforgender,age,andethnicitywerecreated1forEvangelicalsandCatholicsineachstatebasedonPewResearchCenter’s2014ReligiousLandscapeStudy2andHarvardUniversity’s2018CCESsurvey.3Usingthismethod,thesamplewasmatchedtothespecificdemographicprofile(gender,age,ethnicity)andoverallratioofEvangelicalstoCatholicsineachstate.Themarginoferrorforthetotalsample(combinedacrossstates)is+/-2.59%ata95%confidencelevel.Themarginoferrorforstate-levelestimatesis+/-5.66%ata95%confidencelevel.DatacollectionoccurredonlinewithsurveyrespondentsprovidedbyDynataandProdege.ResearchTeamThesurveywasdesignedandconductedbyateamofacademicsattheUniversityofSouthernCalifornia,DukeUniversityandtheUniversityofNorthCarolina–ChapelHill(seeauthorlistonpage1).FundingfortheresearchwasprovidedbyVoteCommonGood.Forquestionsregardingsurveymethodology,pleaseemailDr.DavidNeal([email protected])andProfessorWendyWood([email protected]).

1Seepage18and19.2PewResearchCenter,May12,2015,“America’sChangingReligiousLandscape”3BrianSchaffner;StephenAnsolabehere;SamLuks,2019,"CCESCommonContent,2018",https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ZSBZ7K,HarvardDataverse,V6,UNF:6:hFVU8vQ/SLTMUXPgmUw3JQ==[fileUNF]

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KeyFindings• HowEvangelicalsandCatholicsintendtovotein2020comparedwiththeir2016vote(see

Tables12,13,and17)o The2020electioniscurrentlyontracktoproducean11%swingtowardsBidencompared

with2016amongEvangelicalsandCatholics,averagingacrossbothChristiandenominationsandall5swingstatessurveyed.

o AmongswingstateCatholics,2020iscurrentlyontracktoproducea+16%swing

towardsJoeBidenoverthe2016result(seePlot1).Specifically,whereasClintonlostCatholicstoTrumpin2016(R50%/D36%),BidenisontracktowinCatholics(R43%/D45%).

o AmongswingstateEvangelicals,2020iscurrentlyontracktoproducea+7%swing

towardsJoeBidenoverthe2016result(seePlot2).WhereasClintonlostEvangelicalstoTrumpbyalargemarginin2016(R59%/D25%),Bidenisontracktolosethatgroupbyanarrowermargin(R59%/D33%).

Plot1:Catholicchangeinvotingpatternsbetween2016-2020.

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Plot2:Evangelicalchangeinvotingpatternsbetween2016-2020.

• HowEvangelicalsandCatholicsratethepresidentialcandidatesonthe7cardinalvirtues(kindness,generosity,humility,chastity,modesty,diligenceandpatience;seeTables1and3a-3c).

o Onaverage,acrossallvirtues,50%ofrespondentsratedBidenasmorevirtuousthanTrump,

and39%ratedTrumpasmorevirtuousthanBiden.o The largest gap between candidates emerged for the virtues of humility and modesty.

Specifically:

§ 49% of respondents view Biden as higher on humility than Trump and 22% perceiveTrumpashavingmorehumilitythanBiden.

§ 44%ofrespondentsviewBidenasmoremodestthanTrumpand22%perceiveTrumpasmoremodestthanBiden.

o BreakingoutCatholicsandEvangelicals,CatholicsviewBidenasmorevirtuousthanTrump,

whereasEvangelicalsviewbothcandidatesasaboutequallyvirtuous.

§ AmongCatholics,55%rateBidenasmorevirtuousthanTrump,and34%rateTrumpasmorevirtuousthanBiden.

§ AmongEvangelicals,45%rateBidenasmorevirtuousthanTrump,and44%rateTrumpasmorevirtuousthanBiden.

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• HowEvangelicalsandCatholicsratethepresidentialcandidatesonthe7deadlysins(lust,

sloth,greed,wrath,gluttony,envyandpride;SeeTables2and3d-3f).

o On average, across all sins, 51% rated Trump as more sinful than Biden, and 37% ofrespondentsratedBidenasmoresinfulthanTrump.

o Thelargestgapbetweencandidatesemergedforthesinsofprideandanger.Specifically,

§ 49%ofrespondentsviewTrumpasmorepridefulthanBiden,whereas20%perceiveBidenasmorepridefulthanTrump.

§ 48%ofrespondentsviewTrumpasmoreangrythanBidenand22%perceiveBidenasmoreangrythanTrump.

o BreakingoutCatholicsandEvangelicals,bothCatholicsandEvangelicalsrateTrumpasmore

sinfulthanBiden,althoughthedifferenceislargeramongCatholics.

§ AmongCatholics,57%rateTrumpasmoresinfulthanBiden,and32%rateBidenasmoresinfulthanTrump.

§ AmongEvangelicals,46%rateTrumpasmoresinfulthanBiden,and41%rateBidenasmoresinfulthanTrump.

• Which sins and virtues are, statistically, the strongest predictors of religious voters

defectingfromTrumpin2020:

o Aseriesof logisticregressionmodels identifiedtheperceivedsinsandvirtues(forbothTrumpandBiden)thatarethebiggestdriversof2016Trumpvotersdefectingin2020(i.e.,switchingtoBiden/notvoting/votingforathirdparty).Amongall7virtuesandall7sinsfor both candidates, the perception that Trump lacks basic Christian kindness is thestrongestdriverofdefectingfromTrumpin2020(seePlot3).Indeed,7outofthetop8predictorsofTrump2016votersdefectingconcernTrump’sperceivedabsenceofChristianvirtues(ratherthanthepresenceofChristiansinoranyperceptionsofBiden’svirtuesorsins).o Thesingle sinmaking the listof top8predictorswas theperceptionofTrumpas

lustful.o Overall,theseresultssuggestthatdisaffectedTrumpvotersmaygenerallybewilling

to forgiveTrumps’perceivedsins(except lust),butnothisperceived lackofbasicChristianvirtues(especiallykindness).

§ ThispatternwasconsistentacrossbothCatholicsandEvangelicals,aswellasacrossmalesandfemales

§ Thispatternwasalsopresentforyoungerandolderrespondentsalike,butespeciallystrongamongolderrespondentswhoaremorelikelytodefectfromTrumpbecauseofaperceivedlackofChristianvirtue.

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Plot3:Likelihoodof2016Trumpvoters’switchingin2020(i.e.intendingtovoteforBiden/Thirdpartycandidate/Notvoting),asafunctionofTrump’sperceivedkindness.

Note:0%=Extremelyunlikelytoswitch(i.e.extremelylikelytovoteforTrumpagainin2020),100%=Extremelylikelytoswitch(i.e.extremelyunlikelytovoteforTrumpagainin2020).

• WhoEvangelicalsandCatholicsthinkJesuswouldvoteforin2020(seeTable9):

o AcrossEvangelicalsandCatholics,28%sayJesuswouldvoteforDonaldTrumpin2020and

27%saythathewouldvoteforJoeBiden.23%saythatJesuswouldnotvoteand22%saythatJesuswouldbeequallylikelytovoteforeithercandidate/don’tknow.

o BreakingoutCatholicsandEvangelicals,CatholicsaremorelikelytoreportthatJesuswould

vote forBiden,whereasEvangelicals aremore likely to say that hewould vote forTrump.Specifically,

§ AmongCatholics,25%sayJesuswouldvoteforDonaldTrumpin2020and35%sayhe

wouldvoteforJoeBiden.21%sayJesuswouldnotvoteand19%saythatJesuswouldbeequallylikelytovoteforeithercandidate/don’tknow.

§ AmongEvangelicals,31%sayJesuswouldvoteforDonaldTrumpin2020and20%sayhewouldvoteforJoeBiden.24%sayJesuswouldnotvoteand25%saythatJesuswouldbeequallylikelytovoteforeithercandidate/unsure/don’tknow.

• HowEvangelicalsandCatholicsperceivethe2016Democraticcandidate(HillaryClinton)

comparedwiththe2020DemocraticCandidate(JoeBiden;Seetable16):

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o AcrossEvangelicalsandCatholics,46%saytheyhaveamorefavorableopinionofBidenthanClinton,11%saytheyhaveamorefavorableopinionofClintonthanBiden,and43%saythattheiropinionofbothcandidatesisaboutthesame.

o BreakingoutCatholicsandEvangelicals,bothgroupsgenerallyseeBidenmorefavorablythan

Clinton,butthisgapislargerforCatholicsthanEvangelicals.Specifically,

§ AmongCatholics,49%saytheyhaveamorefavorableopinionofBidenthanClinton,11%say they have amore favorable opinion of Clinton than Biden, and 40% say that theiropinionofbothcandidatesisaboutthesame.

§ AmongEvangelicals,45%saytheyhaveamorefavorableopinionofBidenthanClinton,11%saytheyhaveamorefavorableopinionofClintonthanBiden,and45%saythattheiropinionofbothcandidatesisaboutthesame.

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FullSurveyResults

A. Candidate Ratings - Sins and Virtues Thefollowingtablesrepresentcandidates’virtueandsinratings.RatingsshowninTable1and2arepooledacrossallvirtueitemsorallsinitems.Virtues Regardlessofwhoyoumaysupportpolitically,pleasereflectonyourimpressionof[JoeBiden/DonaldTrump].Based on your understanding of howhe lives his life, how[sexuallymoral/hardworking/generouswiththoseinneed/humble/kind/modestinhisneeds/even-tempered]doyoubelieve[JoeBiden/DonaldTrump]is?[EACHITEMFOREACHCANDIDATESHOWNSEPARATELY;CANDIDATEORDERANDITEMORDERWITHIN EACH CANDIDATE WERE RANDOMIZED; RESULTS ARE POOLED ACROSS INDIVIDUALVIRTUEITEMS]Table1:Percentageofrespondentswhorateeachcandidateasmorevirtuous/thesame/noopinion(Note:Table2showsresultsforCatholicsvs.Evangelicalsineachofthe5swingstates).

Religion State Bidenmorevirtuous

Trumpmorevirtuous

Noopinion/Don’tknow

Same

Allrespondents Allrespondents 50% 39% 7% 4%Catholic Allrespondents 55% 34% 6% 5%Evangelical Allrespondents 45% 44% 7% 4%Catholic Florida 51% 37% 6% 6%Evangelical Florida 49% 41% 8% 3%Catholic Michigan 49% 39% 8% 3%Evangelical Michigan 42% 48% 6% 4%Catholic NorthCarolina 60% 32% 3% 5%Evangelical NorthCarolina 42% 45% 7% 6%Catholic Pennsylvania 59% 32% 5% 4%Evangelical Pennsylvania 45% 45% 8% 2%Catholic Wisconsin 57% 29% 6% 8%Evangelical Wisconsin 51% 38% 8% 3%

Sins (1) Regardless of who you may support politically, please reflect on your impression of [Joe

Biden/Donald Trump]. Based on your understanding of how he lives his life, how[angry/envious/gluttonous/greedy/lustful/prideful/lazy]doyouthinkheis?

[EACH ITEMFOREACHCANDIDATESHOWNSEPARATELY;CANDIDATEORDERAND ITEMORDERWITHINEACHCANDIDATEWERERANDOMIZED;RESULTSAREPOOLEDACROSS INDIVIDUAL SINITEMS]

Table2:Percentageofrespondentswhorateeachcandidateasmoresinful/thesame/noopinion

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(Note:Table2showsresultsforCatholicsvs.Evangelicalsineachofthe5swingstates).

Religion State Bidenmoresinful

Trumpmoresinful

Noopinion/Don’tknow

Same

Allrespondents Allrespondents 37% 51% 9% 4%Catholic Allrespondents 32% 57% 6% 5%Evangelical Allrespondents 41% 46% 10% 3%Catholic Florida 30% 57% 7% 5%Evangelical Florida 40% 46% 11% 3%Catholic Michigan 35% 49% 12% 3%Evangelical Michigan 41% 47% 8% 5%Catholic NorthCarolina 34% 52% 6% 8%Evangelical NorthCarolina 43% 44% 10% 3%Catholic Pennsylvania 29% 64% 4% 4%Evangelical Pennsylvania 44% 45% 9% 2%Catholic Wisconsin 33% 59% 3% 5%Evangelical Wisconsin 32% 48% 14% 5%

Specific sins and virtues Table 3a: Percentage of respondentswho rate each candidate asmore or less virtuous on eachindividualvirtue(Note:Table4ashowsresultsforallrespondents(i.e.,CatholicsandEvangelicals)combinedacrossall5swingstates).

Name Bidenmore

thanTrumpTrumpmorethanBiden

Same Noopinion/Don’tknow

Difference(Trump-Biden)4

Diligence 34% 45% 11% 10% 11%Generosity 37% 33% 12% 19% -4%Kindness 44% 30% 13% 13% -14%Chastity 37% 22% 15% 27% -15%Patience 46% 25% 16% 13% -21%Modesty 44% 22% 16% 18% -21%Humility 49% 22% 18% 11% -28%

Table 3b: Percentage of respondentswho rate each candidate asmore or less virtuous on eachindividualvirtue(Note:Table4bshowsresultsforCatholicsversusEvangelicalscombinedacrossall5swingstates).

Religion Name BidenmorethanTrump

TrumpmorethanBiden


Difference(Trump-Biden)

Catholic Diligence 40% 41% 11% 8% 0%Evangelical Diligence 28% 49% 12% 12% 20%Catholic Generosity 44% 30% 11% 15% -13%Evangelical Generosity 31% 35% 12% 22% 4%Catholic Kindness 51% 26% 12% 11% -25%Evangelical Kindness 39% 33% 14% 15% -5%Catholic Chastity 44% 19% 14% 23% -25%

4 Duetorounding,differencescoresintables3a-3fmaynotamountexactlytothedifferencebetweendisplayedpercentages.

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Evangelical Chastity 31% 24% 15% 30% -7%Catholic Patience 53% 23% 13% 11% -29%Evangelical Patience 41% 27% 17% 14% -14%Catholic Modesty 51% 20% 14% 16% -32%Evangelical Modesty 38% 24% 18% 20% -13%Catholic Humility 55% 19% 16% 10% -36%Evangelical Humility 45% 24% 20% 11% -21%

Table 3c: Percentage of respondents who rate each candidate asmore or less virtuous on eachindividualvirtue(Note:Table4cshowsresultsforCatholicsandEvangelicalscombinedbyeachofthe5swingstates).

State Name BidenmorethanTrump

TrumpmorethanBiden



Florida Diligence 36% 43% 12% 9% 8%Florida Generosity 39% 31% 12% 17% -9%Florida Kindness 44% 30% 12% 14% -14%Florida Chastity 32% 22% 16% 31% -10%Florida Patience 44% 23% 18% 14% -21%Florida Modesty 41% 22% 18% 18% -20%Florida Humility 51% 21% 17% 12% -30%Michigan Diligence 29% 49% 12% 11% 20%Michigan Generosity 31% 36% 11% 21% 5%Michigan Kindness 42% 36% 8% 13% -6%Michigan Chastity 32% 27% 15% 26% -5%Michigan Patience 44% 29% 14% 14% -15%Michigan Modesty 41% 23% 15% 21% -18%Michigan Humility 44% 23% 20% 13% -21%NorthCarolina Diligence 30% 46% 11% 13% 16%NorthCarolina Generosity 32% 38% 12% 19% 6%NorthCarolina Kindness 40% 32% 15% 13% -8%NorthCarolina Chastity 34% 23% 14% 29% -11%NorthCarolina Patience 42% 27% 18% 14% -15%NorthCarolina Modesty 37% 28% 17% 17% -9%NorthCarolina Humility 43% 25% 21% 11% -18%Pennsylvania Diligence 37% 43% 12% 8% 7%Pennsylvania Generosity 39% 32% 10% 19% -8%Pennsylvania Kindness 46% 28% 13% 13% -17%Pennsylvania Chastity 43% 20% 14% 23% -23%Pennsylvania Patience 49% 27% 13% 10% -22%Pennsylvania Modesty 49% 21% 14% 16% -28%Pennsylvania Humility 54% 22% 15% 9% -33%Wisconsin Diligence 38% 44% 8% 10% 6%Wisconsin Generosity 42% 27% 12% 19% -15%Wisconsin Kindness 49% 23% 17% 12% -26%Wisconsin Chastity 43% 17% 15% 25% -26%Wisconsin Patience 54% 20% 15% 11% -34%Wisconsin Modesty 50% 16% 16% 18% -34%Wisconsin Humility 55% 17% 19% 10% -38%

Table 3d: Percentage of respondents who rate each candidate as more or less sinful on eachindividual sin (Note: Table 4d shows results for all respondents (i.e., Catholics andEvangelicals)

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combinedacrossall5swingstates).

Table3e:Percentageofrespondentswhorateeachcandidateasmoreorlesssinfuloneachindividualsin (Note: Table 4e shows results for Catholics versus Evangelicals combined across all 5 swingstates).

Religion Name Bidenmore




Catholic Pride 16% 54% 19% 12% 38%Evangelical Pride 24% 45% 17% 14% 21%Catholic Anger 20% 54% 16% 10% 34%Evangelical Anger 24% 44% 17% 15% 20%Catholic Gluttony 17% 46% 15% 22% 29%Evangelical Gluttony 15% 33% 19% 33% 18%Catholic Lust 20% 48% 11% 22% 28%Evangelical Lust 26% 33% 11% 30% 7%Catholic Greed 24% 52% 11% 13% 28%Evangelical Greed 33% 37% 9% 21% 4%Catholic Envy 29% 40% 12% 19% 11%Evangelical Envy 33% 28% 12% 27% -6%Catholic Sloth 32% 38% 19% 12% 6%Evangelical Sloth 40% 24% 17% 19% -17%

Table3f:Percentageofrespondentswhorateeachcandidateasmoreorlesssinfuloneachindividualsin(Note:Table4fshowsresults forCatholicsandEvangelicalscombinedbyeachof the5swingstates).

State Name BidenmorethanTrump

TrumpmorethanBiden



Florida Pride 19% 49% 18% 14% 30%Florida Anger 20% 50% 16% 14% 29%Florida Gluttony 16% 37% 19% 28% 20%Florida Lust 23% 40% 9% 28% 17%Florida Greed 28% 46% 11% 16% 18%Florida Envy 31% 35% 10% 24% 4%Florida Sloth 35% 29% 18% 17% -6%Michigan Pride 25% 46% 15% 14% 22%Michigan Anger 25% 45% 16% 13% 20%Michigan Gluttony 16% 35% 19% 30% 20%

Name BidenmorethanTrump

TrumpmorethanBiden



Pride 20% 49% 18% 13% 29%Anger 22% 48% 17% 13% 26%Gluttony 16% 39% 17% 28% 23%Lust 23% 39% 11% 26% 16%Greed 29% 43% 10% 18% 15%Envy 31% 33% 12% 23% 2%Sloth 37% 30% 18% 16% -7%

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Michigan Lust 25% 37% 12% 25% 12%Michigan Greed 31% 41% 10% 19% 10%Michigan Envy 33% 30% 14% 23% -3%Michigan Sloth 36% 25% 22% 17% -12%NorthCarolina Pride 22% 48% 17% 14% 26%NorthCarolina Anger 25% 44% 18% 13% 19%NorthCarolina Gluttony 19% 37% 16% 29% 18%NorthCarolina Lust 25% 33% 12% 29% 8%NorthCarolina Greed 34% 37% 8% 21% 3%NorthCarolina Envy 35% 29% 13% 23% -6%NorthCarolina Sloth 41% 24% 19% 17% -17%Pennsylvania Pride 19% 51% 16% 14% 31%Pennsylvania Anger 23% 52% 15% 11% 30%Pennsylvania Gluttony 15% 44% 15% 27% 29%Pennsylvania Lust 22% 47% 9% 23% 25%Pennsylvania Greed 29% 48% 10% 14% 18%Pennsylvania Envy 28% 36% 13% 23% 8%Pennsylvania Sloth 36% 38% 15% 10% 1%Wisconsin Pride 16% 49% 25% 10% 33%Wisconsin Anger 19% 52% 18% 11% 33%Wisconsin Gluttony 13% 43% 18% 27% 30%Wisconsin Lust 21% 40% 14% 24% 19%Wisconsin Greed 22% 48% 10% 20% 26%Wisconsin Envy 28% 35% 12% 25% 8%Wisconsin Sloth 33% 35% 14% 18% 2%

B. Importance of each virtue and sin to living a moral life

(2) Asyoumayknow,theBibledescribesspecificsinsandvirtues.First,we’dliketoknowhow

important,ifatall,youpersonallybelieveeachoneistolivingamorallygoodlife.

Thinkingfirstaboutthe7Biblicalvirtueslistedbelow,howimportantisit,ifatall,forapersontoseektoembodyeachvirtueindailylifeinordertohaveamorallygoodlife?

0. Humility(orbeinghumble)1. Kindness(orbeingkind)2. Moderation(orbeingmodestintheirneeds)3. Chastity(orbeingsexuallymoral)4. Patience(orbeingeven-tempered)5. Generosity(orbeinggenerouswiththoseinneed)6. Diligence(orbeinghardworking)

[EACHITEMANSWEREDSEPARATELY;ITEMORDERWASRANDOMIZED;RESULTSARE POOLEDACROSSVIRTUES]Table4:Importanceofeachvirtuetolivingamorallygoodlifeasratedbyallrespondentscombinedacrossall5swingstates.

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Notatall/

slightlyimportant

Moderatelyimportant

Very/extremelyimportant

Chastity 217(15%) 285(20%) 928(65%)Diligence 45(3%) 178(12%) 1207(84%)Generosity 53(4%) 188(13%) 1189(83%)Humility 45(3%) 197(14%) 1188(83%)Kindness 33(2%) 72(5%) 1325(93%)Modesty 77(5%) 345(24%) 1008(70%)Patience 41(3%) 155(11%) 1234(86%)

Total 511(5%) 1420(14%) 8079(81%)

(3) Thinkingnowaboutthe7Biblicalsinsorviceslistedbelow,howimportantisitforapersonto

avoidorlimiteachsinorviceindailylifeinordertohaveamorallygoodlife?[EACHITEMANSWEREDSEPARATELY;ITEMORDERWASRANDOMIZED;RESULTSARE POOLEDACROSSSINS]

0. Pride(orbeingprideful)1. Envy(orbeingenvious)2. Gluttony(orbeinggluttonous)3. Lust(orbeinglustful)4. Wrath(orbeingangry)5. Greed(orbeinggreedy)6. Sloth(orbeinglazy)

Table 5: Importance of avoiding each sin in order to have a morally good life as rated by allrespondentscombinedacrossall5swingstates.

Notatall/slightlyimportant

Moderatelyimportant

Very/extremelyimportant

Anger 151 (11%) 214 (15%) 1065 (74%)Envy 161 (11%) 265 (19%) 1004 (70%)

Gluttony 174 (12%) 273 (19%) 983 (69%)Greed 134 (9%) 152 (11%) 1144 (80%)Lust 190 (13%) 221 (15%) 1019 (71%)Pride 152(11%) 299(21%) 979(68%)Sloth 189(13%) 275(19%) 966(68%)Total 1151(11%) 1699(17%) 7160(72%)

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C. Religiosity Perceptions of Donald J. Trump and Joseph R. Biden (4) Asfarasyouknow,whatisDonaldTrump’sreligion?[RESPONSEORDERRANDOMIZEDEXCEPT

FORFINALRESPONSE(“NOTSURE/NOOPINION”)]

0. Christian,butI’mnotsurewhatkind1. Protestant2. Catholic3. Jewish4. Muslim5. Buddhist6. Agnostic7. Atheist8. Notsure/Noopinion[ANCHOR]

Table6:PerceptionofDonaldTrump’sreligion,(comparingCatholicsvs.Evangelicalscombinedacrossall5swingstates).

Catholic Evangelical Total

Agnostic 12(2%) 12(2%) 24(2%)Atheist 29(5%) 29(4%) 58(4%)Catholic 77(12%) 32(4%) 109(8%)

Christian,butI’mnotsurewhatkind 253(40%) 355(45%) 608(43%)Jewish 4(1%) 2(0%) 6(0%)

Notsure/Noopinion 182(29%) 183(23%) 365(26%)Protestant 81(13%) 179(23%) 260(18%)

Total 638(100%) 792(100%) 1430(100%)

(5) Asfarasyouknow,whatisJoeBiden’sreligion?[RESPONSEORDERRANDOMIZEDEXCEPTFORFINALRESPONSE(“NOTSURE/NOOPINION”)]

0. Christian,butI’mnotsurewhatkind1. Protestant2. Catholic3. Jewish4. Muslim5. Buddhist6. Agnostic7. Atheist8. Notsure/Noopinion[ANCHOR]

Table7:PerceptionofJoeBiden’sreligion,(comparingCatholicsvs.Evangelicalscombinedacrossall5swingstates).


Agnostic 3(0%) 7(1%) 10(1%)

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Atheist 7(1%) 15(2%) 22(2%)Catholic 297(47%) 264(33%) 561(39%)

Christian,butI’mnotsurewhatkind 149(23%) 166(21%) 315(22%)Jewish 2(0%) 2(0%) 4(0%)Muslim 1(0%) 2(0%) 3(0%)

Notsure/Noopinion 164(26%) 280(35%) 444(31%)Protestant 15(2%) 56(7%) 71(5%)

Total 638(100%) 792(100%) 1430(100%)

(6) Ifyouhaveanopinion,whichpersonismorelikelytoconfesstheirsinstoGod?[RESPONSEORDER

RANDOMIZEDEXCEPTFORTWOFINALRESPONSES(“THEYAREEQUALLYLIKELY”;“NOTSURE/NOOPINION”)]

0. JoeBidenismorelikely1. DonaldTrumpismorelikely2. Theyareequallylikely[ANCHOR]3. Don’tknow/Noopinion[ANCHOR]

Table 8: Person more likely to confess their sins to God (comparing Catholics vs. Evangelicalscombinedacrossall5swingstates).


DonaldTrumpismorelikely 95(15%) 224(28%) 319(22%)JoeBidenismorelikely 312(49%) 263(33%) 575(40%)Theyareequallylikely 109(17%) 140(18%) 249(17%)Don’tknow/Noopinion 122(19%) 165(21%) 287(20%)

Total 638(100%) 792(100%) 1430(100%)

(7) Ifyouhaveanopinion,ifJesuscouldvoteinthe2020election,whowouldhemostlikelyvotefor?

[RESPONSEORDERRANDOMIZEDEXCEPTFORTWOFINALRESPONSES(“JESUSWOULDN’TVOTEINTHE2020ELECTION”,“DON’TKNOW/NOOPINION”)]

0. JoeBiden1. DonaldTrump2. EquallylikelytovoteforJoeBidenandDonaldTrump3. Jesuswouldn’tvoteinthe2020election[ANCHOR]4. Don’tknow/Noopinion[ANCHOR]

Table9a:Who Jesuswouldvote for, (comparingCatholics vs.Evangelicals combinedacross all 5swingstates).


DonaldTrump 157(25%) 248(31%) 405(28%)JoeBiden 223(35%) 162(20%) 385(27%)

EquallylikelytovoteforJoeBidenandDonaldTrump 27(4%) 30(4%) 57(4%)Jesuswouldn’tvoteinthe2020election 136(21%) 187(24%) 323(23%)

Don’tknow/Noopinion 95(15%) 165(21%) 260(18%)

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Total 638100%) 792(100%) 1430(100%)

Table9b:WhoTrump-supportingrespondentsthinkJesuswouldvotefor,(comparingCatholicsvs.Evangelicalscombinedacrossall5swingstates).

Respondent’sintended2020Vote

WhoJesuswouldvotefor Number(%)

DonaldTrump,theRepublican DonaldTrump 393(53%)

DonaldTrump,theRepublican Jesuswouldn’tvoteinthe2020election 181(24%)

DonaldTrump,theRepublican EquallylikelytovoteforJoeBidenandDonaldTrump/Don’tknow/Noopinion

156(21%)

DonaldTrump,theRepublican JoeBiden 12(2%)

Table9c:WhoBiden-supportingrespondentsthinkJesuswouldvotefor,(comparingCatholicsvs.Evangelicalscombinedacrossall5swingstates).

Intended2020Vote Jesusvote Number(%)JoeBiden,theDemocrat JoeBiden 365(66%)

JoeBiden,theDemocrat Jesuswouldn’tvoteinthe2020election 96(17%)JoeBiden,theDemocrat EquallylikelytovoteforJoeBidenand

DonaldTrump/Don’tknow/Noopinion

83(15%)

JoeBiden,theDemocrat DonaldTrump 6(1%)

PoliticalViewsandVoting(8) Inpoliticstoday,doyouconsideryourself...

0. Republican1. Democrat2. Independent3. Nopreference[ANCHOR]4. Otherparty[ANCHOR]5. Don’tknow[ANCHOR]

[IFANSWERISNOT“REPUBLICAN”OR“DEMOCRAT,”displaythefollowingquestion:’Asoftoday,doyouleanmoretothe...[Republicanparty/Democraticparty/NeitherorNoopinion’]]Table 10: Political party preference, (comparing Catholics vs. Evangelicals combined across all 5swingstates).

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Dem.orLeanDem. 258(40%) 223(28%) 481(34%)Rep.orLeanRep. 294(46%) 484(61%) 778(54%)

Otherparty 2(0%) 3(0%) 5(0%)Nopreference 82(13%) 79(10%) 161(11%)Don’tknow 2(0%) 3(0%) 5(0%)

Total 638(100%) 792(100%) 1430(100%)

(9) ThinkingaheadtotheNovembergeneralelection,areyou...

[RESPONSEORDERNOTRANDOMIZED]

0. Almostcertaintovote1. Verylikelytovote2. Somewhatlikelytovote3. Notverylikelytovote4. Notatalllikelytovote

Table11:Likelihoodofvoting, (comparingCatholicsvs.Evangelicalscombinedacrossall5swingstates).


Almostcertaintovote 563(88%) 680(86%) 1243(87%)Verylikelytovote 61(10%) 90(11%) 151(11%)

Somewhatlikelytovote 7(1%) 19(2%) 26(2%)Notverylikelytovote 5(1%) 1(0%) 6(0%)Notatalllikelytovote 2(0%) 2(0%) 4(0%)

Total 638(100%) 792(100%) 1430(100%)

(10) Ifthe2020presidentialelectionwereheldtoday,who,ifanyone,wouldyouvoteforifthe

candidateswere:[RESPONSEORDERRANDOMIZEDEXCEPTFORTHREEFINALRESPONSES(“Anothercandidate”,“Wouldn’tvote”,“Don’tknow/Noopinion”)]

0. JoeBiden,theDemocrat1. DonaldTrump,theRepublican2. Anothercandidate[ANCHOR]3. Wouldn’tvote[ANCHOR]4. Don’tknow/Noopinion[ANCHOR]

Table 12: 2020 presidential election vote if held today, (comparing Catholics vs. Evangelicalscombinedacrossall5swingstates).


DonaldTrump,theRepublican 273(43%) 469(59%) 742(52%)JoeBiden,theDemocrat 294(46%) 256(32%) 550(38%)

Anothercandidate 20(3%) 21(3%) 41(3%)Wouldn’tvote 4(1%) 3(0%) 7(0%)

Don’tknow/Noopinion 47(7%) 43(5%) 90(6%)

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Total 638(100%) 792(100%) 1430(100%)

(11) Thinkingbacktothe2016presidentialelection,who,ifanyone,didyouvotefor:

[ORDERRANDOMIZEDFORFIRSTTWORESPONSES(“HillaryClinton,theDemocrat”,“DonaldTrump,theRepublican”)]=

0. HillaryClinton,theDemocrat1. DonaldTrump,theRepublican2. Anothercandidate[ANCHOR]3. Ididn’tvote[ANCHOR]4. Don’trecall[ANCHOR]

Table13:2016presidentialelectionvote,(comparingCatholicsvs.Evangelicalscombinedacrossall5swingstates).


Anothercandidate 49(8%) 59(8%) 108(8%)Don’trecall 5(1%) 4(1%) 9(1%)

DonaldTrump,theRepublican 309(49%) 463(60%) 772(55%)HillaryClinton,theDemocrat 231(37%) 194(25%) 425(30%)

Ididn’tvote 31(5%) 57(7%) 88(6%)Total 625(100%) 777(100%) 1402(100%)

[RANDOMIZEORDEROFBIDENANDTRUMP](12) Regardlessofwhoyoumaysupportpolitically,asyouhavelearnedmoreaboutDonaldTrump

inrecentyears,wouldyousayyouropinionabouthismoralcharacterhasbecomemorepositive,lesspositive,orhasstayedaboutthesame?

[RESPONSEORDERRANDOMIZEDFORFIRSTTWORESPONSES(“MOREPOSITIVE”,“LESSPOSITIVE”)]Table 14: Opinion of Donald Trump’s moral character, (comparing Catholics vs. Evangelicalscombinedacrossall5swingstates).


Morepositive 149(23%) 245(31%) 394(28%)Lesspositive 316(50%) 267(34%) 583(41%)

Stayedaboutthesame 156(24%) 250(32%) 406(28%)Noopinion/Idon’tknowenoughtocomment 17(3%) 30(4%) 47(3%)

Total 638(100%) 792(100%) 1430(100%)

(13) Regardlessofwhoyoumaysupportpolitically,asyouhavelearnedmoreaboutJoeBidenin

recentyears,wouldyousayyouropinionabouthismoralcharacterhasbecomemorepositive,lesspositive,orhasstayedaboutthesame?[RESPONSEORDERRANDOMIZEDFORFIRSTTWORESPONSES(“MOREPOSITIVE”,“LESSPOSITIVE”)]

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Table15:Opinionof JoeBiden’smoralcharacter,(comparingCatholicsvs.Evangelicalscombinedacrossall5swingstates).


Morepositive 155(24%) 147(19%) 302(21%)Lesspositive 232(36%) 331(42%) 563(39%)

Stayedaboutthesame 204(32%) 243(31%) 447(31%)Noopinion/Idon’tknowenoughtocomment 47(7%) 71(9%) 118(8%)

Total 638(100%) 792(100%) 1430(100%)

(14) PleasecompareJoeBidenandHillaryClintoninyourmind.Usingthescalebelow,pleasetellusifyoufeelmorefavorabletowardsoneofthesetwopeopleorfeelaboutthesame.

Ifeel...[RESPONSEORDERNOTRANDOMIZED]Table16:Favorability towardsBidenvs.Clinton, (comparingCatholicsvs.Evangelicalscombinedacrossall5swingstates).


MuchmorefavorabletowardsBiden 152(24%) 163(21%) 315(22%)SlightlymorefavorabletowardsBiden 161(25%) 188(24%) 349(24%)EquallyfavorabletoClintonandBiden 256(40%) 357(45%) 613(43%)SlightlymorefavorabletowardsClinton 42(7%) 44(6%) 86(6%)MuchmorefavorabletowardsClinton 27(4%) 40(5%) 67(5%)

Total 638(100%) 792(100%) 1430(100%)

VotingShiftPatternsin2016Comparedwith2020Table17a:Overall2016-2020votingshiftpatternsaveragingacrossthe5swingstatesReligion 2016Vote(R/D) 2020Vote(R/D) Pro-BidenShift5Catholic 50%/36% 43%/45% +16%Evangelical 59%/25% 59%/32% +7%Allrespondents 55%/30% 52%/39% +11%

Table 17b: Overall 2016-2020 voting shift patterns broken down by state and Catholics vs.Evangelicals

State Religion 2016Vote(Trump/Clinton)

2020Vote(Trump/Biden)

Pro-DemocratShift

5 Shiftpercentagestables17a-17darecalculatedasthedifferencebetweenDemocraticvotesharein2020and2016,minusthedifferencebetweenRepublicanvotesharein2020and2016.Duetorounding,shiftpercentagesmaynotexactlyequaldisplayeddifferencesbetween2016/2020voteshares.

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Florida Catholic 51%/39% 45%/44% +11%Florida Evangelical 61%/25% 60%/36% +13%Michigan Catholic 53%/32% 50%/39% +10%Michigan Evangelical 56%/25% 55%/32% +7%NorthCarolina Catholic 53%/26% 43%/38% +22%NorthCarolina Evangelical 64%/23% 62%/30% +9%Pennsylvania Catholic 46%/42% 37%/53% +20%Pennsylvania Evangelical 59%/25% 61%/31% +5%Wisconsin Catholic 46%/39% 41%/51% +17%Wisconsin Evangelical 54%/28% 58%/33% +2%Table17c:Overall 2016-2020voting shift patterns amongmale voters, brokendownby state andCatholicsvs.Evangelicals

State Religion Gender 2016Vote(Trump/Clinton)


Pro-DemocratShift

Florida Catholic Male 52%/37% 46%/44% +13%Florida Evangelical Male 61%/26% 54%/42% +23%Michigan Catholic Male 53%/31% 52%/41% +11%Michigan Evangelical Male 61%/20% 60%/29% +9%NorthCarolina Catholic Male 53%/26% 44%/38% +21%NorthCarolina Evangelical Male 66%/24% 66%/28% +5%Pennsylvania Catholic Male 54%/32% 44%/46% +25%Pennsylvania Evangelical Male 60%/18% 63%/31% +9%Wisconsin Catholic Male 45%/35% 38%/51% +22%Wisconsin Evangelical Male 57%/27% 58%/34% +7%

Table17d:Overall2016-2020votingshiftpatternsamongfemalevoters,brokendownbystateandCatholicsvs.Evangelicals

State Religion Gender 2016Vote(Trump/Clinton)


Pro-DemocratShift

Florida Catholic Female 50%/42% 44%/44% +8%Florida Evangelical Female 62%/24% 64%/31% +5%Michigan Catholic Female 53%/33% 48%/38% +9%Michigan Evangelical Female 53%/29% 52%/34% +6%NorthCarolina Catholic Female 53%/26% 42%/37% +23%NorthCarolina Evangelical Female 62%/23% 58%/32% +12%Pennsylvania Catholic Female 38%/53% 31%/59% +14%Pennsylvania Evangelical Female 58%/30% 59%/32% +2%Wisconsin Catholic Female 48%/42% 43%/51% +12%Wisconsin Evangelical Female 52%/28% 57%/32% -1%

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Evaluations of Donald J. Trump and Joseph R. Biden across Policy Domains

[RANDOMIZEORDEROFQ15ANDQ16]

(15) ThinkingspecificallyaboutDonaldTrump’sperformanceasPresident,pleasetellusyour

opinionabouteachfactorlistedbelow.

[STATEMENTORDERRANDOMIZED]

0. DonaldTrump’shandlingoftheeconomy1. DonaldTrump’shandlingofforeignpolicy/internationalrelations2. DonaldTrump’shonesty3. DonaldTrump’shandlingofimmigration4. DonaldTrump’smoralcharacter5. DonaldTrump’shandlingofthepoor6. DonaldTrump’shandlingofracerelations7. DonaldTrump’shandlingofCoronavirus

8. Table18:OpinionofDonaldTrump’sperformanceasPresidentamongallrespondents.

Religion Name Very/Slightlyunfavorable

Neitherunfavorablenorfavorable

Very/Slightlyfavorable

Allrespondents Economy 29% 11% 60%Allrespondents Foreign 39% 11% 51%Allrespondents Honesty 46% 17% 37%Allrespondents Immigration 39% 9% 52%Allrespondents Moral 48% 21% 31%Allrespondents Poor 42% 17% 41%Allrespondents Race 45% 16% 39%Allrespondents Virus 45% 11% 44%

Table19:OpinionofDonaldTrump’sperformanceasPresident,(comparingCatholicsvs.Evangelicalscombinedacrossall5swingstates).




Catholic Economy 34% 12% 54%Evangelical Economy 26% 10% 65%Catholic Foreign 45% 12% 44%Evangelical Foreign 34% 10% 56%Catholic Honesty 54% 15% 31%Evangelical Honesty 40% 18% 42%Catholic Immigration 45% 9% 46%Evangelical Immigration 34% 9% 57%

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Catholic Moral 55% 20% 26%Evangelical Moral 42% 22% 36%Catholic Poor 47% 19% 34%Evangelical Poor 37% 16% 47%Catholic Race 51% 15% 33%Evangelical Race 40% 16% 44%Catholic Virus 53% 11% 36%Evangelical Virus 39% 11% 50%

(16) ThinkingspecificallyaboutJoeBiden’slikelyperformanceifelectedPresident,pleasetellus

youropinionabouteachfactorlistedbelow.[STATEMENTORDERRANDOMIZED]

0. JoeBiden’shandlingoftheeconomy1. JoeBiden’shandlingofforeignpolicy/internationalrelations2. JoeBiden’shonesty3. JoeBiden’shandlingofimmigration4. JoeBiden’smoralcharacter5. JoeBiden’shandlingofthepoor6. JoeBiden’shandlingofracerelations7. JoeBiden’shandlingofCoronavirus

Table20:OpinionofJoeBiden’slikelyperformanceasPresidentamongallrespondents.




Allrespondents Economy 49% 17% 35%Allrespondents Foreign 45% 18% 37%Allrespondents Honesty 40% 20% 40%Allrespondents Immigration 47% 18% 35%Allrespondents Moral 35% 24% 41%Allrespondents Poor 35% 23% 42%Allrespondents Race 39% 22% 39%Allrespondents Virus 37% 24% 39%

Table 21: Opinion of Joe Biden’s performance as President (comparing Catholics vs. Evangelicalscombinedacrossall5swingstates).




Catholic Economy 44% 17% 39%Evangelical Economy 53% 16% 31%Catholic Foreign 39% 18% 42%Evangelical Foreign 50% 18% 32%Catholic Honesty 34% 20% 46%Evangelical Honesty 44% 21% 35%Catholic Immigration 41% 18% 40%Evangelical Immigration 52% 18% 30%

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Catholic Moral 31% 22% 48%Evangelical Moral 39% 25% 36%Catholic Poor 31% 21% 48%Evangelical Poor 39% 24% 37%Catholic Race 33% 22% 45%Evangelical Race 43% 22% 35%Catholic Virus 31% 24% 45%Evangelical Virus 42% 24% 34%

Demographics(17) Inwhatstatedoyoulive?

Table22:StateofResidence,(comparingCatholicsvs.Evangelicalscombinedacrossall5swingstates).


Florida 136(21%) 156(20%) 292(20%)Michigan 120(19%) 160(20%) 280(20%)

NorthCarolina 77(12%) 231(29%) 308(22%)Pennsylvania 161(25%) 127(16%) 288(20%)

Wisconsin 144(23%) 118(15%) 262(18%)Total 638(100%) 792(100%) 1430(100%)

(18) Areyoumaleorfemale?

Table23:Gender(comparingCatholicsvs.Evangelicalscombinedacrossall5swingstates).


Female 342(54%) 452(57%) 794(56%)Male 296(46%) 340(43%) 636(44%)Total 638(100%) 792(100%) 1430(100%)

(19) Inwhichofthefollowingcategoriesdoesyouragefall?Table24:Agedistribution(comparingCatholicsvs.Evangelicalscombinedacrossall5swingstates).


18to24 23(4%) 37(5%) 60(4%)25to44 160(25%) 235(30%) 395(28%)45to64 286(45%) 344(43%) 630(44%)

65orabove 169(26%) 176(22%) 345(24%)Total 638(100%) 792(100%) 1430(100%)

(20) DoyouconsideryourselftobeHispanic,Latino,orofSpanishorigin?

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Table25:Hispanic/Latinovs.not,(comparingCatholicsvs.Evangelicalscombinedacrossall5swingstates).


No 565(89%) 755(95%) 1320(92%)Yes 72(11%) 37(5%) 109(8%)

Don’tknow/Rathernotsay 1(0%) 0(0%) 1(0%)Total 638(100%) 792(100%) 1430(100%)

(21) Whatracedoyouconsideryourselftobe?Pleaseselectoneormore(comparingCatholicsvs.

Evangelicalscombinedacrossall5swingstates).Table26:Ethnicity


AmericanIndianorAlaskanNative 2(0%) 6(1%) 8(1%)Asian 9(1%) 12(2%) 21(1%)

BlackorAfricanAmerican 20(3%) 70(9%) 90(6%)Don’tknow/Rathernotsay 0(0%) 1(0%) 1(0%)

Morethanonerace 10(2%) 12(2%) 22(2%)NativeHawaiianorPacificIslander 2(0%) 1(0%) 3(0%)

Other 8(1%) 5(1%) 13(1%)White 587(92%) 685(86%) 1272(89%)Total 638(100%) 792(100%) 1430(100%)

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Appendix:State-SpecificFindings

FloridaNote:AllanalysesbelowincludeonlyrespondentswhoresideinFlorida.

1. HowareFloridaEvangelicalsandCatholicsintendingtovotein2020comparedwith2016?TableA1:Floridaoverall2016-2020votingshiftpatternsbrokendownbyreligiousdenominationReligion 2016Vote(R/D) 2020Vote(R/D) Pro-BidenShiftCatholic 51%/39% 45%/44% +11%Evangelical 61%/25% 60%/36% +13%Allrespondents 56%/32% 53%/40% +11%

2. In2020,whoisshiftinginFlorida?

• AmongFloridaCatholics,the11%2020shifttowardsBidenisfueledjointlyby:6

– 2016TrumpvotersmovingawayfromTrump:8%ofFloridaCatholicsvotedforTrumpin2016butdon’tintendtoin2020.

– 2016thirdpartyandnon-votersintendingtoswitchtoBiden:2%ofFloridaCatholicsdidn’tvoteforeithermajorpartycandidate(e.g.didn’tvote/votedforathirdpartycandidate)butintendtovoteforBidenin2020.

• AmongFloridaEvangelicals,the12%2020shifttowardsBidenisfueledjointlyby:

– 2016TrumpvotersmovingawayfromTrump:10%ofFloridaEvangelicalsvotedforTrumpin2016butdon’tintendtoin2020.

– 2016thirdpartyandnon-votersintendingtoswitchtoBiden:5%ofFloridaEvangelicalsdidn’tvoteforeithermajorpartycandidate(e.g.didn’tvote/votedforathirdpartycandidate)butnowintendtovoteforBidenin2020.

3. WhatvirtuesandsinsdifferentiateTrumpandBidenintheeyesofFloridaEvangelicalsandCatholics(seeTableA2)?

• BidenisseenasmorevirtuousthanTrumpon6outof7virtuesandlesssinfulthanTrumpon6out7sins.

• BidenandTrumpareperceivedtodiffermostonthevirtuesofhumility(Biden30%morethanTrump)andpatience(Biden21%morethanTrump).

• Onsins,theydiffermostonpride(Trump30%morethanBiden)andanger(Trump29%morethanBiden).

4. WhodoFloridaEvangelicalsandCatholicssayJesuswouldvoteforin2020?

• Overall,26%sayJesuswouldvoteforDonaldTrumpin2020and30%saythathewouldvoteforJoeBiden.23%saythatJesuswouldnotvoteand21%saythatJesuswouldbeequallylikelytovoteforeithercandidate/don’tknow.

• BidenvotersaremorelikelytosaythattheirvotewouldalignwithJesus’:70%ofintendedBidenvoterssaythatJesuswouldvoteforBidenaswell,comparedwith50%ofintendedTrumpvoterswhosaythatJesuswouldvoteforTrump.

6 Note: The overall “Pro-Biden Shift” numbers for Catholics and Evangelicals do not equal the sum of 2016 Trump defectors and 2016 third-party/non-voters breaking for Biden because (a) some respondents were too young to vote in 2016, (b) Trump has gained a small number of 2016 Clinton voters and (c) Trump has gained a small number of 2016 third-party/non-voters. The overall Pro-Biden Shift values incorporate these pro-Trump shifts to arrive at an overall, net gain figure for Biden.

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– 13%ofintendedBidenvoterssaythatJesuswouldnotvote,17%saythatJesuswouldbeequallylikelytovoteforeithercandidate/unsure/don’tknow,and0%saythatJesuswouldvoteforDonaldTrump.

– 27%ofintendedTrumpvoterssaythatJesuswouldnotvote,19%saythatJesuswouldbeequallylikelytovoteforeithercandidate/unsure/don’tknow,and3%saythatJesuswouldvoteforJoeBiden.

TableA2:FloridaVirtueandSinPerceptionsofPresidentialCandidatesamongEvangelicalsandCatholics.Name Bidenmore




Diligence 36% 43% 12% 9% 8%Generosity 39% 31% 12% 17% -9%Chastity 32% 22% 16% 31% -10%Kindness 44% 30% 12% 14% -14%Modesty 41% 22% 18% 18% -20%Patience 44% 23% 18% 14% -21%Humility 51% 21% 17% 12% -30%Name Bidenmore




Pride 19% 49% 18% 14% 30%Anger 20% 50% 16% 14% 29%Gluttony 16% 37% 19% 28% 20%Greed 28% 46% 11% 16% 18%Lust 23% 40% 9% 28% 17%Envy 31% 35% 10% 24% 4%Sloth 35% 29% 18% 17% -6%

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MichiganNote:AllanalysesbelowincludeonlyrespondentswhoresideinMichigan.

1. HowareMichiganEvangelicalsandCatholicsintendingtovotein2020comparedwith2016?TableA3:Michiganoverall2016-2020votingshiftpatternsbrokendownbyreligiousdenominationReligion 2016Vote(R/D) 2020Vote(R/D) Pro-BidenShiftCatholic 53%/32% 50%/39% +10%Evangelical 56%/25% 55%/32% +7%Allrespondents 55%/28% 53%/35% +9%

2. In2020,whoisshiftinginMichigan?

• AmongMichiganCatholics,the10%2020shifttowardsBidenisfueledjointlyby:7

– 2016TrumpvotersmovingawayfromTrump:6%ofMichiganCatholicsvotedforTrumpin2016butdon’tintendtoin2020.

– 2016thirdpartyandnon-votersintendingtoswitchtoBiden:7%ofMichiganCatholicsdidn’tvoteforeithermajorpartycandidate(e.g.didn’tvote/votedforathirdpartycandidate)butintendtovoteforBidenin2020.

• AmongMichiganEvangelicals,the8%2020shifttowardsBidenisfueledjointlyby:

– 2016TrumpvotersmovingawayfromTrump:6%ofMichiganEvangelicalsvotedforTrumpin2016butdon’tintendtoin2020.

– 2016 thirdparty andnon-voters intending to switch toBiden: 7%ofMichiganEvangelicalsdidn’tvoteforeithermajorpartycandidate(e.g.didn’tvote/votedforathirdpartycandidate)butnowintendtovoteforBidenin2020.

3. WhatvirtuesandsinsdifferentiateTrumpandBidenintheeyesofMichiganEvangelicalsandCatholics(seeTableA4)?


• BidenandTrumpareperceivedtodiffermostonthevirtuesofhumility(Biden21%morethanTrump)andmodesty(Biden18%morethanTrump).


4. WhodoMichiganEvangelicalsandCatholicssayJesuswouldvoteforin2020?


• Bidenvotersareslightly more likely tosay that theirvotewouldalignwith Jesus’: 59%ofintendedBiden voters say that Jesuswould vote forBiden aswell, comparedwith 55%ofintendedTrumpvoterswhosaythatJesuswouldvoteforTrump.–22%ofintendedBidenvoterssaythatJesuswouldnotvote,17%saythatJesuswouldbeequallylikelytovoteforeithercandidate/unsure/don’tknow,and1%saythatJesuswouldvoteforDonaldTrump.


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–24%ofintendedTrumpvoterssaythatJesuswouldnotvote,20%saythatJesuswouldbeequallylikelytovoteforeithercandidate/unsure/don’tknow,and2%saythatJesuswouldvoteforJoeBiden.

TableA4:MichiganVirtueandSinPerceptionsofPresidentialCandidatesamongEvangelicalsandCatholics.Name Bidenmore




Diligence 29% 49% 12% 11% 20%Generosity 31% 36% 11% 21% 5%Chastity 32% 27% 15% 26% -5%Kindness 42% 36% 8% 13% -6%Patience 44% 29% 14% 14% -15%Modesty 41% 23% 15% 21% -18%Humility 44% 23% 20% 13% -21%Name Bidenmore




Pride 25% 46% 15% 14% 22%Anger 25% 45% 16% 13% 20%Gluttony 16% 35% 19% 30% 20%Lust 25% 37% 12% 25% 12%Greed 31% 41% 10% 19% 10%Envy 33% 30% 14% 23% -3%Sloth 36% 25% 22% 17% -12%

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NorthCarolinaNote:AllanalysesbelowincludeonlyrespondentswhoresideinNorthCarolina.

1. HowareNorthCarolinaEvangelicalsandCatholicsintendingtovotein2020comparedwith2016?Table A5: North Carolina overall 2016-2020 voting shift patterns broken down by religiousdenominationReligion 2016Vote(R/D) 2020Vote(R/D) Pro-BidenShiftCatholic 53%/26% 43%/38% +22%Evangelical 64%/23% 62%/30% +9%Allrespondents 61%/24% 57%/32% +12%

2. In2020,whoisshiftinginNorthCarolina?

• AmongNorthCarolinaCatholics,the22%2020shifttowardsBidenisfueledjointlyby:8

– 2016TrumpvotersmovingawayfromTrump:13%ofNorthCarolinaCatholicsvotedforTrumpin2016butdon’tintendtoin2020.

– 2016thirdpartyandnon-votersintendingtoswitchtoBiden:9%ofNorthCarolinaCatholicsdidn’tvoteforeithermajorpartycandidate(e.g.didn’tvote/votedforathirdpartycandidate)butintendtovoteforBidenin2020.

• AmongNorthCarolinaEvangelicals,the9%2020shifttowardsBidenisfueledjointlyby:

– 2016Trumpvotersmoving awayfromTrump:8%ofNorthCarolinaEvangelicals voted forTrumpin2016butdon’tintendtoin2020.

– 2016thirdpartyandnon-votersintendingtoswitchtoBiden:3%ofNorthCarolinaEvangelicalsdidn’tvoteforeithermajorpartycandidate(e.g.didn’tvote/votedforathirdpartycandidate)butnowintendtovoteforBidenin2020.

3. WhatvirtuesandsinsdifferentiateTrumpandBidenintheeyesofNorthCarolinaEvangelicalsandCatholics(seeTableA6)?


• BidenandTrumpareperceivedtodiffermostonthevirtuesofhumility(Biden18%morethanTrump)andpatience(Biden15%morethanTrump).


4. WhodoNorthCarolinaEvangelicalsandCatholicssayJesuswouldvoteforin2020?



– 22%ofintendedBidenvoterssaythatJesuswouldnotvote,15%saythatJesuswouldbeequallylikelytovoteforeithercandidate/unsure/don’tknow,and1%saythatJesuswould


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voteforDonaldTrump.– 23%ofintendedTrumpvoterssaythatJesuswouldnotvote,24%saythatJesuswouldbeequallylikelytovoteforeithercandidate/unsure/don’tknow,and2%saythatJesuswouldvoteforJoeBiden.

TableA6:NorthCarolinaVirtueandSinPerceptionsofPresidentialCandidatesamongEvangelicalsandCatholics.Name Bidenmore




Diligence 30% 46% 11% 13% 16%Generosity 32% 38% 12% 19% 6%Kindness 40% 32% 15% 13% -8%Modesty 37% 28% 17% 17% -9%Chastity 34% 23% 14% 29% -11%Patience 42% 27% 18% 14% -15%Humility 43% 25% 21% 11% -18%Name Bidenmore




Pride 22% 48% 17% 14% 26%Anger 25% 44% 18% 13% 19%Gluttony 19% 37% 16% 29% 18%Lust 25% 33% 12% 29% 8%Greed 34% 37% 8% 21% 3%Envy 35% 29% 13% 23% -6%Sloth 41% 24% 19% 17% -17%

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PennsylvaniaNote:AllanalysesbelowincludeonlyrespondentswhoresideinPennsylvania.

1. HowarePennsylvaniaEvangelicalsandCatholicsintendingtovotein2020comparedwith2016?Table A7: Pennsylvania overall 2016-2020 voting shift patterns broken down by religiousdenominationReligion 2016Vote(R/D) 2020Vote(R/D) Pro-BidenShiftCatholic 46%/42% 37%/53% +20%Evangelical 59%/25% 61%/31% +5%Allrespondents 52%/34% 48%/43% +13%

2. In2020,whoisshiftinginPennsylvania?

• AmongPennsylvaniaCatholics,the20%2020shifttowardsBidenisfueledjointlyby:9

– 2016TrumpvotersmovingawayfromTrump:12%ofPennsylvaniaCatholicsvotedforTrumpin2016butdon’tintendtoin2020.

– 2016thirdpartyandnon-votersintendingtoswitchtoBiden: 8%ofPennsylvaniaCatholicsdidn’tvoteforeithermajorpartycandidate(e.g.didn’tvote/votedforathirdpartycandidate)butintendtovoteforBidenin2020.

• AmongPennsylvaniaEvangelicals,the4%2020shifttowardsBidenisfueledjointlyby:

– 2016TrumpvotersmovingawayfromTrump:6%ofPennsylvaniaEvangelicalsvotedforTrumpin2016butdon’tintendtoin2020.

– 2016thirdpartyandnon-votersintendingtoswitchtoBiden:8%ofPennsylvaniaEvangelicalsdidn’tvoteforeithermajorpartycandidate(e.g.didn’tvote/votedforathirdpartycandidate)butnowintendtovoteforBidenin2020.

3. WhatvirtuesandsinsdifferentiateTrumpandBidenintheeyesofPennsylvaniaEvangelicalsandCatholics(seeTableA8)?


• BidenandTrumpareperceivedtodiffermostonthevirtuesofhumility(Biden33%morethanTrump)andmodesty(Biden28%morethanTrump).


4. WhodoPennsylvaniaEvangelicalsandCatholicssayJesuswouldvoteforin2020?



– 14%ofintendedBidenvoterssaythatJesuswouldnotvote,14%saythatJesuswouldbeequallylikelytovoteforeithercandidate/unsure/don’tknow,and2%saythatJesuswould


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voteforDonaldTrump.– 19%ofintendedTrumpvoterssaythatJesuswouldnotvote,23%saythatJesuswouldbeequallylikelytovoteforeithercandidate/unsure/don’tknow,and0%saythatJesuswouldvoteforJoeBiden.

TableA8:PennsylvaniaVirtueandSinPerceptionsofPresidentialCandidatesamongEvangelicalsandCatholics.Name Bidenmore




Diligence 37% 43% 12% 8% 7%Generosity 39% 32% 10% 19% -8%Kindness 46% 28% 13% 13% -17%Patience 49% 27% 13% 10% -22%Chastity 43% 20% 14% 23% -23%Modesty 49% 21% 14% 16% -28%Humility 54% 22% 15% 9% -33%Name Bidenmore




Pride 19% 51% 16% 14% 31%Anger 23% 52% 15% 11% 30%Gluttony 15% 44% 15% 27% 29%Lust 22% 47% 9% 23% 25%Greed 29% 48% 10% 14% 18%Envy 28% 36% 13% 23% 8%Sloth 36% 38% 15% 10% 1%

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WisconsinNote:AllanalysesbelowincludeonlyrespondentswhoresideinWisconsin.

1. HowareWisconsinEvangelicalsandCatholicsintendingtovotein2020comparedwith2016?TableA9:Wisconsinoverall2016-2020votingshiftpatternsbrokendownbyreligiousdenominationReligion 2016Vote(R/D) 2020Vote(R/D) Pro-BidenShiftCatholic 46%/39% 41%/51% +17%Evangelical 54%/28% 58%/33% +2%Allrespondents 50%/34% 48%/43% +11%

2. In2020,whoisshiftinginWisconsin?

• AmongWisconsinCatholics,the17%2020shifttowardsBidenisfueledjointlyby:10

– 2016TrumpvotersmovingawayfromTrump:12%ofWisconsinCatholicsvotedforTrumpin2016butdon’tintendtoin2020.

– 2016thirdpartyandnon-votersintendingtoswitchtoBiden:8%ofWisconsinCatholicsdidn’tvoteforeithermajorpartycandidate(e.g.didn’tvote/votedforathirdpartycandidate)butintendtovoteforBidenin2020.

• AmongWisconsinEvangelicals,the3%2020shifttowardsBidenisfueledjointlyby:

– 2016TrumpvotersmovingawayfromTrump:6%ofWisconsinEvangelicalsvotedforTrumpin2016butdon’tintendtoin2020.

– 2016thirdpartyandnon-votersintendingtoswitchtoBiden: 5%ofWisconsinEvangelicalsdidn’tvoteforeithermajorpartycandidate(e.g.didn’tvote/votedforathirdpartycandidate)butnowintendtovoteforBidenin2020.

3. WhatvirtuesandsinsdifferentiateTrumpandBidenintheeyesofWisconsinEvangelicalsandCatholic(seeTable10)?


• BidenandTrumpareperceivedtodiffermostonthevirtuesofhumility(Biden38%morethanTrump),patience(Biden34%morethanTrump),andModesty(Biden34%morethanTrump).


4. WhodoWisconsinEvangelicalsandCatholicssayJesuswouldvoteforin2020?



– 18%ofintendedBidenvoterssaythatJesuswouldnotvote,12%saythatJesuswouldbeequallylikelytovoteforeithercandidate/unsure/don’tknow,and2%saythatJesuswouldvoteforDonaldTrump.


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– 30%ofintendedTrumpvoterssaythatJesuswouldnotvote,19%saythatJesuswouldbeequallylikelytovoteforeithercandidate/unsure/don’tknow,and1%saythatJesuswouldvoteforJoeBiden.

TableA10:WisconsinVirtueandSinPerceptionsofPresidentialCandidatesamongEvangelicalsandCatholics.Name Bidenmore




Diligence 38% 44% 8% 10% 6%Generosity 42% 27% 12% 19% -15%Chastity 43% 17% 15% 25% -26%Kindness 49% 23% 17% 12% -26%Modesty 50% 16% 16% 18% -34%Patience 54% 20% 15% 11% -34%Humility 55% 17% 19% 10% -38%Name Bidenmore




Pride 16% 49% 25% 10% 33%Anger 19% 52% 18% 11% 33%Gluttony 13% 43% 18% 27% 30%Greed 22% 48% 10% 20% 26%Lust 21% 40% 14% 24% 19%Envy 28% 35% 12% 25% 8%Sloth 33% 35% 14% 18% 2%

35

Appendix:FieldedSurveySwingStatePollofEvangelicalandCatholicRegisteredVotersinWI,MI,PA,NC,andFL.NOTES:

1. [UPPERCASETEXTINBOLD]reflectsprogrammingnotesandwillnotappeartorespondents.2. Totalsamplesizeis1400-1500,with250-300fromeachstate.ThenumberofEvangelicalsand

CatholicsineachstatevariesbasedonPEW2014dataandHarvard2018datawhichestablishtheratioofeachgroupineachstate.InadditiontooverallquotasforEvangelicalsandCatholicsineachstate,quotaswillalsobeappliedforgenderandagewithindenomination.

1. Welcometothesurvey-wegreatlyappreciateyourtimeandattention.First,let’sfindoutalittle

aboutyou…

Areyoumaleorfemale?[RANDOMIZE0AND1;SINGLESELECT;ANCHORFINAL]0. Male1. Female2. Rathernotsay[ANCHOR]

2. Inwhichofthefollowingcategoriesdoesyouragefall?

[DON’TRANDOMIZE;SINGLESELECT;ANCHORFINAL]0. Under18[TERMINATE]1. 18to242. 25to443. 45to644. 65orabove5. Rathernotsay[ANCHOR;TERMINATE]

3. Inwhatstatedoyoulive?

[DROPDOWNMENUOFSTATESPLUSPUERTORICOANDD.C.INALPHABETICALORDER.INCLUDEANOPTIONFOR“OTHER.”SEEAPPENDIXFORFULLLIST;DON’TRANDOMIZE;SINGLESELECT]

[TERMINATEIFSTATEDOESNOTEQUAL:WI,MI,PA,NC,ORFL]4. DoyouconsideryourselftobeHispanic,Latino,orofSpanishorigin?

[SELECTONE;RANDOMIZE0AND1;ANCHORFINALOPTION]

PART 1: DEMOGRAPHICS AND SCREENERS

36

0. Yes1. No2. Don’tknow/Rathernotsay[ANCHOR]

5. Whatracedoyouconsideryourselftobe?Pleaseselectoneormore.

[MULTI-SELECT;RANDOMIZE;ANCHORLASTTWOOPTIONS]0. AmericanIndianorAlaskanNative1. Asian2. BlackorAfricanAmerican3. NativeHawaiianorPacificIslander4. White5. Other[ANCHOR]6. Don’tknow/Rathernotsay[ANCHOR;EXCLUSIVE]

6. AreyoucurrentlyacitizenoftheUnitedStatesornot?

[RANDOMIZE,SINGLESELECT]0. Yes1. No[TERMINATE]

7. Whatyearwereyouborn?

[DROPDOWNLISTOFYEARS1920-2005;TERMINATEIFBIRTHYEARDOESNOTMATCHAGERANGEPROVIDEDINQ2ALLOWINGFORTHEFACTTHATARESPONDENTCANHAVETWOAGESBASEDONMONTHOFBIRTHANDCURRENTDATE]

7b. Forqualitycontrolpurposes,pleaseselectthe“Other”optionbelowandthentypetheword

“quality”intothespaceprovided.[SELECTONE;DONOTRANDOMIZE]0. Stronglyagree1. Agree2. Neitheragreenordisagree3. Disagree4. Stronglydisagree5. Other[TEXTBOX,DONOTFORCERESPONSEIFSELECTED]

8. Whatisyourpresentreligion,ifany?[RANDOMIZE0-10;ANCHOR11-13;SINGLESELECT]

37

0. Protestant(Baptist,Methodist,Non-denominational,Lutheran,Presbyterian,Pentecostal,Episcopalian,Reformed,ChurchofChrist,etc.)

1. RomanCatholic(Catholic)2. Mormon(ChurchofJesusChristofLatter-daySaints/LDS)3. Orthodox(Greek,Russian,orsomeotherorthodoxchurch)4. OtherChristian5. Jewish(Judaism)6. Muslim(Islam)7. Buddhist(Buddhism)8. Hindu(Hinduism)9. Atheist(donotbelieveinGod)10. Agnostic(notsureifthereisaGod)11. Anotherreligion[ANCHOR]12. Nothinginparticular[ANCHOR]13. I’drathernotsay[ANCHOR]

[ASKQ9IFQ8=0,2,3,or4;IFNOT,SKIP]

9. Wouldyoudescribeyourselfasa"born-again"orevangelicalChristian,ornot?[RANDOMIZE;SINGLESELECT]0. Yes,Iwould1. No,Iwouldnot

TERMINATEIFRESPONDENTDOESNOTSELECTROMANCATHOLICATQ8OR“YES,IWOULD”TOEVANGELICALDESCRIPTORATQ9.CREATEEMBEDDEDDATAFIELDSFOR“CATHOLICS”AND“EVANGELICALS”INEACHSTATE(I.E.,10EMBEDDEDDATAFIELDS).CREATEQUOTASFOREACHEMBEDDEDDATAFIELD–SEEAPPENDIXATENDOFTHISDOCUMENT.

10. Thankyou–youhavequalifiedforthissurvey!Weappreciatehearingyouropinions.

Wewanttochangetopicsnowandaskyouforyourpersonalviewofwhatitmeanstoleadamorallygoodlife.

Pleaseclick“Next”tobegin.

11. Asyoumayknow,theBibledescribesspecificsinsandvirtues.First,we’dliketoknowhowimportant,ifatall,youpersonallybelieveeachoneistolivingamorallygoodlife.

Thinkingfirstaboutthe7Biblicalvirtueslistedbelow,howimportantisit,ifatall,forapersontoseektoembodyeachvirtueindailylifeinordertohaveamorallygoodlife?

PART 2: RELIGIOUS VIRTUES: INTRO

38

[RANDOMIZEORDEROFSTATEMENTS;SHOWALLWITHA5-PTSCALEANCHOREDAT“NOTATALLIMPORTANT”TO“EXTREMELYIMPORTANT”]0. Humility(orbeinghumble)1. Kindness(orbeingkind)2. Moderation(orbeingmodestintheirneeds)3. Chastity(orbeingsexuallymoral)4. Patience(orbeingeven-tempered)5. Generosity(orbeinggenerouswiththoseinneed)6. Diligence(orbeinghardworking)

12. Thinkingnowaboutthe7Biblicalsinsorviceslistedbelow,howimportantisitforapersontoavoid

orlimiteachsinorviceindailylifeinordertohaveamorallygoodlife?[RANDOMIZEORDEROFSTATEMENTS;SHOWALLWITHA5-PTSCALEANCHOREDAT"NOTATALLIMPORTANT"TO"EXTREMELYIMPORTANT"]0. Pride(orbeingprideful)1. Envy(orbeingenvious)2. Gluttony(orbeinggluttonous)3. Lust(orbeinglustful)4. Wrath(orbeingangry)5. Greed(orbeinggreedy)6. Sloth(orbeinglazy)

14. We’dnowliketoknowyourpersonalopinionabouthowvirtuousvariouspoliticalleadersintheU.S.aretoday.

[FORQ14-Q15ANDQ17-Q18,COUNTERBALANCETHEORDEROF“DONALDTRUMP”AND“JOEBIDEN”INTHEQUESTIONTEXTSUCHTHATDONALDTRUMPAPPEARSFIRSTFORHALFOFRESPONDENTSANDJOEBIDENAPPEARSFIRSTFORTHEOTHERHALF]


15. Pleasereflectforamomentonthebiblicalvirtueof[PIPEVIRTUE].Forexample,herearesomerelevantBibleverses:

[PIPETWOVERSESINITALICS;SEEAPPENDIXFORVERSES]Regardlessofwhoyoumaysupportpolitically,pleasereflectonyourimpressionofJoeBiden.Basedonyourunderstandingofhowheliveshislife,how[PIPEONEVIRTUEINADJECTIVEFORMRANDOMLYFROMLISTOFSEVEN;FONTFORVIRTUEISBOLDED]doyoubelieveJoeBidenis?

0. JoeBidenisnotatall[PIPEVIRTUE]1. JoeBidenisslightly[PIPEVIRTUE]2. JoeBidenismoderately[PIPEVIRTUE]

PART 3: RELIGIOUS VIRTUES RATINGS

39

3. JoeBidenisvery[PIPEVIRTUE]4. JoeBidenisextremely[PIPEVIRTUE]5. Noopinion/Don’tknow

[REPEATQ14FORREMAINING6VIRTUES]

16. Pleasereflectforamomentonthebiblicalvirtueof[PIPEVIRTUE].Forexample,herearesomerelevantBibleverses:

[PIPETWOVERSESINITALICS;SEEAPPENDIXFORVERSES]Regardlessofwhoyoumaysupportpolitically,pleasereflectonyourimpressionofDonaldTrump.Basedonyourunderstandingofhowheliveshislife,how[PIPEONEVIRTUEINADJECTIVEFORMRANDOMLYFROMLISTOFSEVEN;FONTFORVIRTUEISBOLDED]doyoubelieveDonaldTrumpis?

0. DonaldTrumpisnotatall[PIPEVIRTUE]1. DonaldTrumpisslightly[PIPEVIRTUE]2. DonaldTrumpismoderately[PIPEVIRTUE]3. DonaldTrumpisvery[PIPEVIRTUE]4. DonaldTrumpisextremely[PIPEVIRTUE]5. Noopinion/Don’tknow

[REPEATQ15FORREMAINING6VIRTUES]

17. We’dnowliketoknowyourpersonalopinionabouthowsinfulvariouspoliticalleadersintheU.S.aretoday.


18. Pleasereflectforamomentonthebiblicalsinorviceof[PIPESIN].Forexample,herearesomerelevantBibleverses:

[PIPETWOVERSESINITALICS;SEEAPPENDIXFORVERSES]Regardlessofwhoyoumaysupportpolitically,pleasereflectonyourimpressionofJoeBiden.Basedonyourunderstandingofhowheliveshislife,how[PIPEONESININADJECTIVEFORMRANDOMLYFROMLISTOFSEVEN;FONTFORSINISBOLDED]doyoubelieveJoeBidenis?

0. JoeBidenisnotatall[PIPESIN]1. JoeBidenisslightly[PIPESIN]2. JoeBidenismoderately[PIPESIN]3. JoeBidenisvery[PIPESIN]4. JoeBidenisextremely[PIPESIN]5. Noopinion/Don’tknow

[REPEATQ17FORREMAINING6SINS]

40

19. Pleasereflectforamomentonthebiblicalsinorviceof[PIPESIN].Forexample,herearesomerelevantBibleverses:

[PIPETWOVERSESINITALICS;SEEAPPENDIXFORVERSES]Regardlessofwhoyoumaysupportpolitically,pleasereflectonyourimpressionofDonaldTrump.Basedonyourunderstandingofhowheliveshislife,how[PIPEONESININADJECTIVEFORMRANDOMLYFROMLISTOFSEVEN;FONTFORSINISBOLDED]doyoubelieveDonaldTrumpis?

0. DonaldTrumpisnotatall[PIPESIN]1. DonaldTrumpisslightly[PIPESIN]2. DonaldTrumpismoderately[PIPESIN]3. DonaldTrumpisvery[PIPESIN]4. DonaldTrumpisextremely[PIPESIN]5. Noopinion/Don’tknow

[REPEATQ18FORREMAINING6SINS]

[RANDOMIZEORDEROFQ19AND20]

20. Asfarasyouknow,whatisDonaldTrump’sreligion?[RANDOMIZEEXCEPTFINALOPTION;SINGLESELECT]4. Christian,butI’mnotsurewhatkind5. Protestant6. Catholic7. Jewish8. Muslim9. Buddhist10. Agnostic11. Atheist12. Notsure/Noopinion[ANCHOR]

21. Asfarasyouknow,whatisJoeBiden’sreligion?

[RANDOMIZEEXCEPTFINALOPTION;SINGLESELECT]0. Christian,butI’mnotsurewhatkind1. Protestant2. Catholic3. Jewish

PART 4: RELIGIOUS FOLLOW-UPS

41

4. Muslim5. Buddhist6. Agnostic7. Atheist8. Notsure/Noopinion[ANCHOR]

22. Ifyouhaveanopinion,whichpersonismorelikelytoconfesstheirsinstoGod?

[RANDOMIZEFIRSTTWOOPTIONS;ANCHORFINALTWOOPTIONS;SINGLESELECT]0. JoeBidenismorelikely1. DonaldTrumpismorelikely2. Theyareequallylikely[ANCHOR]3. Don’tknow/Noopinion[ANCHOR]

23. Ifyouhaveanopinion,ifJesuscouldvoteinthe2020election,whowouldhemostlikelyvotefor?

[RANDOMIZEFIRSTTHREEOPTIONS;ANCHORFINALTWOOPTIONS;SINGLESELECT]

0. JoeBiden1. DonaldTrump2. EquallylikelytovoteforJoeBidenandDonaldTrump3. Jesuswouldn’tvoteinthe2020election[ANCHOR]4. Don’tknow/Noopinion[ANCHOR]

24. Inpoliticstoday,doyouconsideryourself…[RANDOMIZE0,1,AND2;ANCHORALLOTHERS;SINGLESELECT]0. Republican1. Democrat2. Independent3. Nopreference[ANCHOR]4. Otherparty[ANCHOR]5. Don’tknow[ANCHOR]

[IFQ23=2-5,DISPLAYQ24]

25. Asoftoday,doyouleanmoretothe…[RANDOMIZE0AND1;ANCHORFINAL;SINGLESELECT]

PART 5: VOTING PREFERENCES AND VOTING HISTORY

42

0. Republicanparty1. Democratparty2. Neither/Noopinion[ANCHOR]

26. Whichofthesestatementsbestdescribesyou?

[RANDOMIZE0,1,AND2;ANCHORFINAL;SINGLESELECT]0. AbsolutelycertainIamregisteredtovoteatmycurrentaddress.1. Probablyregisteredtovote,butthereisachancemyregistrationhaslapsed.2. Notregisteredtovoteatmycurrentaddress.3. Don’tknow[ANCHOR]

27. ThinkingaheadtotheNovembergeneralelection,areyou…

[DONOTRANDOMIZE;SINGLESELECT]0. Almostcertaintovote1. Verylikelytovote2. Somewhatlikelytovote3. Notverylikelytovote4. Notatalllikelytovote

28. Ifthe2020presidentialelectionwereheldtoday,who,ifanyone,wouldyouvoteforifthecandidates

were:[RANDOMIZE0AND1;ANCHORALLOTHERS]0. JoeBiden,theDemocrat1. DonaldTrump,theRepublican2. Anothercandidate[ANCHOR]3. Wouldn’tvote[ANCHOR]4. Don’tknow/Noopinion[ANCHOR]

29. Thinkingbacktothe2016presidentialelection,who,ifanyone,didyouvotefor:[RANDOMIZE0AND1;ANCHORALLOTHERS]0. HillaryClinton,theDemocrat1. DonaldTrump,theRepublican2. Anothercandidate[ANCHOR]3. Ididn’tvote[ANCHOR]4. Don’trecall[ANCHOR]

43

[RANDOMLYASSIGNORDEROFQ29ANDQ30]

30. Regardlessofwhoyoumaysupportpolitically,asyouhavelearnedmoreaboutDonaldTrumpinrecentyears,wouldyousayyouropinionabouthismoralcharacterhasbecomemorepositive,lesspositive,orhasstayedaboutthesame?[RANDOMIZE0AND1;ANCHORALLOTHERS]0. Morepositive1. Lesspositive2. Stayedaboutthesame[ANCHOR]3. Noopinion/Idon’tknowenoughtocomment[ANCHOR]

31. Regardlessofwhoyoumaysupportpolitically,asyouhave learnedmoreabout JoeBiden inrecent

years,wouldyousayyouropinionabouthismoralcharacterhasbecomemorepositive,lesspositive,orhasstayedaboutthesame?[RANDOMIZE0AND1;ANCHORALLOTHERS]0. Morepositive1. Lesspositive2. Stayedaboutthesame[ANCHOR]3. Noopinion/Idon’tknowenoughtocomment[ANCHOR]

[RANDOMIZEORDEROFQ31ANDQ32]

32. ThinkingspecificallyaboutDonaldTrump’sperformanceasPresident,pleasetellusyouropinionabouteachfactorlistedbelow.[RANDOMIZEORDEROFSTATEMENTS;SHOWALLWITHA5-PTSCALEANCHOREDAT“VERYUNFAVORABLE”TO“VERYFAVORABLE”]

0. DonaldTrump’smoralcharacter1. DonaldTrump’shonesty2. DonaldTrump’shandlingofCoronavirus3. DonaldTrump’shandlingofracerelations4. DonaldTrump’shandlingofimmigration5. DonaldTrump’shandlingofthepoor6. DonaldTrump’shandlingoftheeconomy7. DonaldTrump’shandlingofforeignpolicy/internationalrelations

44

33. ThinkingspecificallyaboutJoeBiden’slikelyperformanceifelectedPresident,pleasetellusyouropinionabouteachfactorlistedbelow.[RANDOMIZEORDEROFSTATEMENTS;SHOWALLWITHA5-PTSCALEANCHOREDAT“VERYUNFAVORABLE”TO“VERYFAVORABLE”]

0. JoeBiden’slikelymoralcharacter1. JoeBiden’slikelyhonesty2. JoeBiden’slikelyhandlingofCoronavirus3. JoeBiden’slikelyhandlingofracerelations4. JoeBiden’slikelyhandlingofimmigration5. JoeBiden’slikelyhandlingofthepoor6. JoeBiden’slikelyhandlingoftheeconomy7. JoeBiden’slikelyhandlingofforeignpolicy/internationalrelations

[SHOWQ33IFQ28=TRUMPANDQ27≠TRUMP]34. TellmeinyourownwordswhyyouareuncertainorunlikelytovoteagainforDonaldTrumpin2020.

[MEDIUM-SIZEDTEXTBOX]

35. Finally,pleasecompareJoeBidenandHillaryClintoninyourmind.Usingthescalebelow,pleasetellusifyoufeelmorefavorabletowardsoneofthesetwopeopleorfeelaboutthesame.Ifeel…[DON’TRANDOMIZE;SINGLESELECT]

0. MuchmorefavorabletowardsHillaryClinton1. SlightlymorefavorabletowardsHillaryClinton2. AboutequallyfavorabletoHillaryClintonandJoeBiden3. SlightlymorefavorabletowardsJoeBiden4. MuchmorefavorabletowardsJoeBiden

ENDOFSURVEY

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APPENDIX

Dropdownlistofstates

0 Alabama1 Alaska2 Arizona3 Arkansas4 California5 Colorado6 Connecticut7 Delaware8 DistrictofColumbia9 Florida10 Georgia11 Hawaii12 Idaho13 Illinois14 Indiana15 Iowa16 Kansas17 Kentucky18 Louisiana19 Maine20 Maryland21 Massachusetts22 Michigan23 Minnesota24 Mississippi25 Missouri26 Montana27 Nebraska28 Nevada29 NewHampshire30 NewJersey31 NewMexico32 NewYork33 NorthCarolina34 NorthDakota35 Ohio

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36 Oklahoma37 Oregon38 Pennsylvania39 PuertoRico40 RhodeIsland41 SouthCarolina42 SouthDakota43 Tennessee44 Texas45 Utah46 Vermont47 Virginia48 Washington49 WestVirginia50 Wisconsin51 Wyoming52 Other

PassagesforBiblicalvirtues:

1. Humilitya. James4:6,10

i. Buthegivesusmoregrace.ThatiswhyScripturesays:“Godopposestheproudbutshowsfavortothehumble.”…HumbleyourselvesbeforetheLord,andhewillliftyouup.

b. Colossians3:12i. Therefore,asGod’schosenpeople,holyanddearlyloved,clotheyourselveswith

compassion,kindness,humility,gentlenessandpatience.2. Diligence

a. 2Timothy2:15i. BediligenttopresentyourselfapprovedtoGod,aworkerwhodoesnotneedtobe

ashamed,rightlydividingthewordoftruth.b. Galatians6:9

i. Letusnotbecomewearyindoinggood,foratthepropertimewewillreapaharvestifwedonotgiveup.

3. Patiencea. Proverbs15:18

i. Ahot-temperedpersonstirsupconflict,buttheonewhoispatientcalmsaquarrel.b. Ephesians4:2

i. Becompletelyhumbleandgentle;bepatient,bearingwithoneanotherinlove.4. Chastity

a. 1Thessalonians4:3i. ItisGod’swillthatyoushouldbesanctified:thatyoushouldavoidsexual

immorality.b. Colossians3:5

47

i. Puttodeath,therefore,whateverbelongstoyourearthlynature:sexualimmorality,impurity,lust,evildesiresandgreed,whichisidolatry.

5. Moderationa. Philippians4:5

i. Letyourmoderationbeknowntoeveryone.b. Galatians5:22

i. ButthefruitoftheSpiritislove,joy,peace,patience,kindness,goodness,faithfulness,gentleness,andself-control.Againstsuchthingsthereisnolaw.

6. Generositya. Proverbs11:24-25

i. Onepersongivesfreely,yetgainsevenmore;anotherwithholdsunduly,butcomestopoverty.Agenerouspersonwillprosper;whoeverrefreshesotherswillberefreshed.

b. Matthew25:35-40i. Iwashungryandyougavemefood,Iwasthirstyandyougavemesomethingto

drink,Iwasastrangerandyouwelcomedme,nakedandyougavemeclothing,sickandyoutookcareofme,Iwasinprisonandyouvisitedme…justasyoudidittooneoftheleastofthesewhoaremembersofmyfamily,youdidittome.

7. Kindnessa. 1Corinthians13:4-7

i. Loveispatient,loveiskind.Itdoesnotenvy,itdoesnotboast,itisnotproud.Itdoesnotdishonorothers,itisnotself-seeking,itisnoteasilyangered,itkeepsnorecordofwrongs.Lovedoesnotdelightinevilbutrejoiceswiththetruth.Italwaysprotects,alwaystrusts,alwayshopes,alwaysperseveres.

b. Ephesians4:32i. Bekindtooneanother,tenderhearted,forgivingoneanother,asGodinChristhas

forgivenyou.PassagesforBiblicalvices:

1. Pridea. James4:6

i. Buthegivesusmoregrace.ThatiswhyScripturesays:“Godopposestheproudbutshowsfavortothehumble.”

b. Philippians2:3-4i. Donothingfromselfishambitionorconceit,butinhumilityregardothersasbetter

thanyourselves.Leteachofyoulooknottoyourowninterests,buttotheinterestsofothers.

2. Lusta. 1John2:16

i. Foreverythingintheworld—thelustoftheflesh,thelustoftheeyes,andtheprideoflife—comesnotfromtheFatherbutfromtheworld.

b. Matthew5:28i. ButIsaytoyouthateveryonewholooksatawomanwithlustfulintenthasalready

committedadulterywithherinhisheart.3. Greed

a. Luke12:15i. Andhesaidtothem,“Takecare!Beonyourguardagainstallkindsofgreed;for

one’slifedoesnotconsistintheabundanceofpossessions.”b. 1Timothy6:8-10

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i. Ifwehavefoodandclothing,wewillbecontentwiththese.Butthosewhowanttoberichfallintotemptationandaretrappedbymanysenselessandharmfuldesiresthatplungepeopleintoruinanddestruction.Fortheloveofmoneyisarootofallkindsofevil…

4. Wratha. Psalm37:8

i. Refrainfromangerandturnfromwrath;donotfret—itleadsonlytoevil.b. James1:20

i. BecausehumanangerdoesnotproducetherighteousnessthatGoddesires.5. Envy

a. Proverbs14:30i. Aheartatpeacegiveslifetothebody,butenvyrotsthebones.

b. James3:16i. Forwhereyouhaveenvyandselfishambition,thereyoufinddisorderandeveryevil

practice.6. Sloth

a. Proverbs13:4i. Lazypeoplewantmuchbutgetlittle,butthosewhoworkhardwillprosper.

b. Proverbs21:25i. Thecravingofthelazypersonisfatal,forlazyhandsrefusetolabor.

7. Gluttonya. Proverbs25:16

i. Ifyoufindhoney,eatjustenough—toomuchofit,andyouwillvomit.b. Philippians3:19

i. Theirdestinyisdestruction,theirgodistheirstomach,andtheirgloryistheirshame.Theirmindissetonearthlythings.

presidential vice and virtue poll sep 7 - vote common good€¦ · after rating the two candidates...

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