preserving and increasing affordable housing stock · altus group limited |...

Opening Doors ConferenceNovember, 2018

Prepared by Altus Group Economic Consulting

Preserving and Increasing Affordable Housing Stock

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Affordable Housing for Whom?Non-Market

Market

Shelters Transitional

Housing Supportive Housing

Social Housing

Rental Assistance Provided in Private Market

Market Rental

Housing Home

Ownership

Temporary shelter

food and other

services

Non-profit housing

providers offer stable housing as

a step between shelters

and permanent

housing

Housing providers

offer permanent housing in purpose-designed buildings

or in scattered sites with ongoing supports

Social or subsidized

housing requires capital

grants or ongoing

government subsidies to

reduce rents for

low-income households Operated

by housing providers,

government

Rental Assistance Program

Private housing make up

most rental

housing includes

secondary market

Fee simple, condominium ownership,

shared equity

ownerships

High

Level of Government Assistance

None

2

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The Face of Affordable Housing

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Macroeconomic and Demographic Outlook

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Household Income Bracket Distribution by Primary Maintainer Age Groups, Calgary CMA, 2016

Source: Statistics Canada, Altus Group Economic Consulting, 2018

30,84521,615

34,36019,390

11,780 6,125 2,610 1,270 580 270 150 285

12,625

9,765

23,845

29,57033,445

32,82524,765

19,38013,345 8,330 5,225 11,360

12,210

8,085

16,92020,610 24,110

25,340

22,170

18,01515,005

12,4258,535

29,415

11,110

6,215

15,36017,620 21,135

22,420

19,020

14,980

12,735

10,4257,680

32,305

12,440

7,220

16,480 16,28518,000

17,945

14,815

10,980

9,000

7,185

5,085

24,500

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Under $5,000(including

loss)

$5,000 to$9,999

$10,000 to$19,999

$20,000 to$29,999

$30,000 to$39,999

$40,000 to$49,999

$50,000 to$59,999

$60,000 to$69,999

$70,000 to$79,999

$80,000 to$89,999

$90,000 to$99,999

$100,000 andover

Tota

l Pop

ulat

ion

with

the

Age

of 1

5 an

d Ab

ove 75+ 65 - 74 55 - 64 45 - 54 35 - 44 25 - 34 15 - 24


"Without data, you're just another person with an opinion." American statistician Edwards Deming

Next 10 Years 25 Year Total

People +245,000 +500,000

Jobs +95,000 +250,000

Homes (Total) +100,000 units +260,000 units

Medium & High Density Homes*

+40,000 units +95,000 units

Office space +1.6 million sq. ft. +2.7 million sq. ft.

Retail Space +5 million sq. ft. +15 million sq. ft.

* Includes townhouse and apartment units

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Private Development – Depends on Demand and Absorption

3,4951,784 2,674

467714

1,163

5,8596,609

6,442

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2001-2006 2006-2011 2011-2016

Annu

al U

nits

Edmonton CMA, Row and Apartment Household Growth

Singles Row Apartment

Outside of City600

18%Central

299 9%

Strathcona65

2%

North826

24%

West1,045 31%

South-East549

16%

Annual Net Absorptions, Row and Apartment, by Zone and Share of Total, 2001-2016

.

Outside of City2,278 36%

North1,207 19%

West2,207 34%

South-East723

11%

Annual Net Absorptions, Singles and Semis, by Zone and Share of Total, 2001-2016

7


Why Doesn’t the Market produce enough affordable housing?

Real Estate is a capital asset used to deliver a program or service – Housing

Social need = economic viability (how do we change ≠ into = )

Non-profit real estate has a monitary value that can be prudently leveraged to rehabilitate or expand real estate assets


Mind the Gap


Means to an End: Providing People with Affordable Housing

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Leverage

Small amount of effort to produce a disproportionately big result

1) the myth of “Free and Clear”

Consider:

2) The ability to leverage or use assets as collateral gives you financial flexibility

3) Leverage can increase cash flow.

4) Leverage can expand your total assets.

Assets (land and buildings)

Access to Capital (Money)

Partnerships (private developers)

Take a Page from a Developer’s Play Book

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Background

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Housing Demand Outlook

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Case Study #1

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Case Study #2

Building Condition Reports

Project Management

Cost Management

Needs And Demands Studies

Municipal Finance

Highest And Best Use Studies

Portfolio Assessments

Property Appraisals

?How Can Altus Group Help?

ContactElsa Sawatzky

Senior Consultant

[email protected]

@altus_group

403-508-7810

National Economic Advisory

33 Yonge St., Toronto, Suite 5002020 - 4th Street SW, Calgary, Suite 3101055 West Georgia Street, Vancouver, Suite 2500

preserving and increasing affordable housing stock · altus group limited |...

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