presented by mei-hsuan (michelle) chao, suyang (sean) hong, jung hyun (jane) kim, shen-ho (ron) yang
TRANSCRIPT
Presented by Mei-Hsuan (Michelle) Chao, Suyang (Sean) Hong,
Jung Hyun (Jane) Kim, Shen-Ho (Ron) Yang
Agenda Company Overview Financial Analysis DCF Comparison Analysis Recommendation
Company Background Public utility holding company
Headquartered in St. Louis, MO Provide electricity and natural gas service to
Missouri and Illinois Created in December 1997 by the merger of
CIPSCO Incorporated and Union Electric Company
Listed on NYSE on January 2, 1998 Acquired CILCORP Inc. in 2003 and Illinois Power
Company in 2004
Missouri regulated: UE
Illinois regulated: CIPS CILCO IP
Non-rate-regulated generation: Genco AERG EEI
Business Segments
From 2008 annual report pg 17
Location Map
Regulation
The utility rates are determined by government entities such as MoPSC and ICC
Subjected to environment laws and regulations Need approval by FERC before issuing debt and
equity, merging, or acquiring utility
Rate Increases Missouri
MoPSC approved UE to increase electricity revenue by $162 mi on Jan 27th 09. Filled in April 08, effective by Mar 09 based on 10.76%
ROE. On July 24th 09, request rate to increase be $402
mi Expected to begin in Jun 2010.
Rate Increases (cont.) Illinois
On Sep 08, ICC approved new rate to increase Ameren’s revenue by $161 mi based on 10.7% ROE
On June 09, Ameren filled to increase $226 mi Revised to $162 mi, decision made by Mar, effective by
May
Industry Issues
Political and regulatory resistance to higher rate
Uncertain access to capital and credit market Availability of fuel and price changes Weather (summer not as hot, winter not as
cold)
Recent News
Entered into multiyear credit facility agreements that provide substantial borrowing capacity through the middle of 2011
Issued 21.9 million shares of its common stock for net proceeds of $535 million in September 2009
Rate cases pending in Illinois and Missouri jurisdictions
Most recent credit rating
SWOT Analysis
Competitors Centerpoint Energy (CNP)
Electricity capacity of 51,400 mega watts, 3.2 million customers in natural gas
Exelon Corp. (EXC) Electricity capacity of 24,809 mega watts, 5.4
million customers Great Plain Energy Inc. (GXP)
Electricity capacity of 6,000 mega watts, 82,000 customers
Earnings Summary
Performance drivers
↓ Higher fuel and related transportation pries
↓ Increased distribution system reliability expenditures
↓ Higher plant operations and maintenance operations
↓ Unfavorable weather conditions
↑ Higher realized margins from non-rate regulated generation operations
↑ The absence of costs in 2008 that were incurred in January 2007 associated with electric outages caused by severe ice storms
↑ The reduced impact in 2008 of the electric rate relief and customer assistance program provided to certain customers in Illinois
↑ higher electric and natural gas delivery service rates
Profitability
Financial Leverage
Efficiency
DuPont Analysis
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
NI/EBT 0.64 0.64 0.61 0.63 0.63 0.62
EBT/EBIT 0.75 0.75 0.77 0.71 0.70 0.69
EBIT/Sales 0.24 0.22 0.19 0.18 0.19 0.18
Sales/Assets 0.35 0.32 0.38 0.36 0.38 0.36
Assets/Equity 3.22 3.12 2.93 2.92 3.02 3.16
Return on Equity 12.79% 10.44% 9.96% 8.45% 9.25% 8.82%
Return on Assets 3.97% 3.35% 3.40% 2.90% 3.06% 2.79%
DuPont Analysis
Stock performance comparison
Management Assessment Focused on delivering safe, reliable, and
affordable energy, while achieving solid returns- A commitment to investing in our Illinois and Missouri regulated business
- Building Constructive Regulatory Frame-works
- Optimizing our existing non-rate-regulated generation assets
- Demonstrating Environmental Leadership
Consistent management - Good at predicting economic outlook and its impact on the company
Assumptions Annual revenue growth
Electricity 9% Gas 12%
COGS growth Fuel declining from 9.5% and 1% decreasing every
year Gas declining from 15% and 2% decreasing every year
Depreciation Straight line at 3% of the gross PP&E
Capital expenditure $1,685 mi in 2009 and $6,600 mi to $8,700 mi over
next four years
DCFForecasted
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Net Income 605.00 631.79 753.09 886.69 1143.13 1433.05 Depreciation/Amortization 685.00 802.53 852.03 901.53 951.03 1000.53 Capital Expenditures (1896.00) (1685.00) (1650.00) (1650.00) (1650.00) (1650.00)Changes in Net Working Capital 351.00 (17.82) 63.63 68.65 189.86 (159.05)
FCF (255.00) (268.50) 18.75 206.87 634.02 624.53 Terminal Value 14225.44 Present Value of FCFF (250.93) 16.38 168.86 483.69 10587.83
Sustainable Growth Rate 2.5%WACC 7.0%
Firm Value Current Value of Operations 11,005.83 Cash & Cash Equivalence 92.00 Debt 6,554.0 Stock Price 21.22 Equals Value +/- 10% 23.34 / 19.10
Peer Comparison
Peer Comparison
Ameren Minimum Average Maximum
Trailing P/E 9.34 10.87 13.19 16.04
Forward P/E 10.63 10.44 11.64 16.04
P/S multiple 0.84 0.56 1.17 1.72
P/B multiple 0.77 0.85 1.72 2.43
EV/EBITDA multiple
6.20 5.94 7.88 10.15
Correlation
CORRELATION WITH AEE
AEO 0.022
DO 0.177
FR 0.569
JKHY 0.268
KMB 0.391
MCD 0.435
SRCL 0.133
WAG 0.335
WFR 0.183
Portfolio Chart
Current Holding Position Purchased 400 shares at $50.03 on April 27,
2006 Sold 200 shares at $20.84 on March 16, 2009 Currently hold 200 shares
Recommendation The close price on November 18, 2009 is $25.88 Based on our assumptions, the intrinsic value is
$19.1~23.34
We recommend to sell the remaining 200 shares at the market price due to the projected negative FCF and the high percentage of terminal value in the present value
Sources 2005 - 2008 Ameren 10K Reports Yahoo Finance (finance.yahoo.com) Google Finance (finance.google.com) Reuters (www.reuters.com) Ameren website (www.ameren.com) Bloomberg One source