presented by jenny philip, manager of economic research greater houston partnership houston’s...
TRANSCRIPT
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Presented byJenny Philip, Manager of Economic Research
Greater Houston Partnership
Houston’s Economic Outlook
Presented byPatrick Jankowski, Vice President Research
Greater Houston Partnership
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The Recession and Recovery
Cliffs Notes Version
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Recession and Recovery
Nonfarm Payroll Employment - Houston MSA*
Unadjusted Adjusted
Jobs Lost 152,800 116,900
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
* Through August
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Recession and Recovery
Nonfarm Payroll Employment - Houston MSA*
Unadjusted Adjusted
Jobs Lost 152,800 116,900
% Jobs Lost 5.8% 4.5%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
* Through August
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Recession and Recovery
Nonfarm Payroll Employment - Houston MSA*
Unadjusted Adjusted
Jobs Lost 152,800 116,900
% Jobs Lost 5.8% 4.5%
Jobs Recovered* 207,400 189,600
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
* Through August
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Recession and Recovery
Nonfarm Payroll Employment - Houston MSA*
Unadjusted Adjusted
Jobs Lost 152,800 116,900
% Jobs Lost 5.8% 4.5%
Jobs Recovered* 207,400 189,600
% Recovered* 135.7% 162.2%
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
* Through August
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Now you know enough to pass.
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Houston vs. The Competition
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24.6%
21.5%
26.7%
29.4%
35.0%
62.5%
82.0
101.5%
115.7
Philadelphia
Miami
Los Angeles
Chicago
Atlanta
New York
Boston
Dallas
DC
Houston 162.2%
Percent of jobs recovered through Aug ’12Houston vs. Top 10 Metros
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
100%
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Miami
Philadelphia
Los Angeles
Chicago
Atlanta
New York
Boston
Dallas
DC
Houston
Percent of jobs recovered through Aug ’12Houston vs. Top 10 Metros
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
162.2%
117.0%
101.5%
82.0%
62.5%
35.0%
29.4%
26.7%
24.6%
21.5%
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Detroit
Riverside
St. Louis
Phoenix
Tampa
San Diego
San Francisco
Minneapolis
Seattle
Baltimore
Houston
Percent of jobs recovered through Aug ’12Houston vs. Second 10 Metros
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
162.2%
55.1%
61.4%
55.0%
43.1%
43.5%
34.2%
31.6%
18.7%
23.1%
21.8%
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In the competition among U.S. metros for job creation?
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In the competition among U.S. metros for job creation?
Houston has already won the
super bowl.
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So what makes Houston hot?
Us Them
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Houston never had a housing bubble.
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2.3 2.1 2.5 2.7
2.3 2.2 2.6
2.1 2.0
4.5
2.1
3.3 3.9
3.1
6.9
2.6 2.0 2.2
3.0 3.1
*Years of Income to Buy a Home, Q1/’00
No Housing Bubble
Source: GHP calculations based on National Association of Homebuilders data
* Median-priced home divided by median household income for each metro area.
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No Housing Bubble
Source: GHP calculations based on National Association of Homebuilders data
*Years of Income to Buy a Home, Q1/’06
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No Housing Bubble
Source: GHP calculations based on National Association of Homebuilders data
*Years of Income to Buy a Home, Q1/’00 vs ’06
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2.6
3.4
2.7
5.5
2.8
3.6
4.2
4.8
1.7
7.6
2.9
4.6
8.9
6.7
8.2
3.3 3.6
1.7
3.6
8.0
1.9
2.7 2.5
3.0 2.6
2.0 2.3
3.1
1.8
4.3
2.1
3.6
4.9
2.8
6.3
2.3 2.5
1.6
3.6
6.3
No Housing Bubble
Source: GHP calculations based on National Association of Homebuilders data
*Years of Income to Buy a Home, Q1/’06 vs Q2/’12
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No Housing Bubble
No zoning = lower housing costs
Market forces determine best use of resources
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No Housing Bubble
– “Large metro areas with the least restrictive zoning have housing cost gaps that are 40 to 63 percentage points lower than metro areas with the most exclusionary zoning.”
– Housing Costs, Zoning, and Access to High Performing Schools, Brookings Institute, April 19, 2012
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Perhaps you’ve seen the headlines?
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Perhaps you’ve seen the headlines?
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Perhaps you’ve seen the headlines?
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We found shale in our backyard
Harris County
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26 94
1,010
2,828
3,230
'08 '09 '10 '11 YTD - July '12
Source: Texas Railroad Commission
Drilling Permits Issued, Texas Eagle Ford Shale
Shale in our backyard
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358 84411,986
118,075
282,721
'08 '09 '10 '11 YTD - July '12
Source: Texas Railroad Commission
Texas Eagle Ford Shale ProductionBarrels/Day
Shale in our backyard
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8,400 corporate jobs added since May ’09
9,100 oil field service jobs added since Nov ’09
7,400 equipment manufacturing jobs added since Nov ’09
So where are we now?
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WTI Spot Price ($/bbl )
• Wednesday close– $90.26
• One year ago– $76.40
• Three years ago– $69.34
• Average over last fifty-two weeks– $95.02
31
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Forecast MonthIssued ’13 Average
Barclay’s July $115.00
Bank of America June 100.00
J.P Morgan Chase June 99.00
Deutsche Bank July 96.00
U.S. Energy Information Administration August 90.25
32
WTI Spot Price ($/bbl )
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Global trade ties
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Exports as a Percent of Gross Metro Product10 Most Populous U.S. Metro Areas
Metro Area ‘05 ‘10
Houston 13.9% 20.7%
Los Angeles 6.6 8.6
Miami 8.6 14.4
Philadelphia 4.3 6.6
Washington, DC 1.7 2.6
Dallas-Ft Worth 6.6 5.9
Boston 6.9 7.0
New York 5.2 6.8
Atlanta 4.5 5.5
Chicago 5.6 6.4
Global Trade Ties
Source: IHS Global Insight
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Global Trade Ties
$47.4 $60.2$77.3 $83.2
$58.2
$76.9
$98.8$102.9
YTD '09 YTD '10 YTD '11 YTD '12
Exports Imports
$105.6
$137.1
$176.1$186.1
$ Value, Billions, Houston-Galveston Customs District, Through August
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
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Data does not include trade in services
1,500 firms in Houston’s service
sector doing business overseas
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Jobs Outlook
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Job Creation -- Forecast vs Actual
48,800
Calendar '10
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Job Creation -- Forecast vs Actual
48,800
76,800
Calendar '10 Calendar '11
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Job Creation -- Forecast vs Actual
48,800
76,800
84,600
Calendar '10 Calendar '11 GHP Forecast
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Job Creation -- Forecast vs Actual
48,800
76,800
84,600 83,700
Calendar '10 Calendar '11 GHP Forecast July '11 - July '12
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So where are we now?
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So where are we now?
We’re cool . . .
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So where are we now?
We’re cool . . . . . . and we’re popular.
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Don’t take my word for it.
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Houston’s Population Clock
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Houston’s Population Clock
The region adds 110,000 residents each year.
65,000 via natural increase i.e., more births than deaths
45,000 via net inmigrationi.e., more people moving in than out
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Houston’s Population Clock
Every 5.4 minutes a new Houstonian is born.
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Houston’s Population Clock
Every 15.7 minutes a Houstonian dies.
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Houston’s Population Clock
Every 21.8 minutes someone moves here from overseas.
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Houston’s Population Clock
24.2 minutes someone moves here from elsewhere in the U.S.
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Houston’s Population Clock
Every 4.8 minutes Houston’s population grows by one resident.
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Houston’s Population Clock
In the hour you’ve spent in this meeting, Houston has added another dozen residents.
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Presented byJenny Philip, Manager of Economic Research
Greater Houston Partnership
Houston’s Economic Outlook
Presented byPatrick Jankowski, Vice President Research
Greater Houston Partnership