presentation of c-ciarn british columbia stewart j. cohen, ph.d. 1) adaptation & impacts...
TRANSCRIPT
PRESENTATION OF C-CIARN BRITISH COLUMBIA
Stewart J. Cohen, Ph.D.
1) Adaptation & Impacts Research Group (AIRG),
Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada
2) Institute for Resources, Environment & Sustainability
University of British Columbia, Vancouver
Presented to the Senate Standing Committee on Forestry and Agriculture, Ottawa, Feb. 4, 2003.
Summary of Briefing
• Temperature and precipitation have increased in British Columbia
• Observed warming has affected growing season length and the mountain pine beetle
• Projected impacts include continued lengthening of the growing season, increased crop water demand, and increased risk of fire and pest infestations
• Important regional concerns include N.E. BC forests, agriculture in the Okanagan, flood risks in the Georgia Basin, and fisheries & coastal erosion in coastal areas
• More research is needed to better understand adaptation to climate change, and how this could affect resource management & regional development—a role for C-CIARN B.C.
Outline of Presentation
• Climate trends in British Columbia• Climate Impacts & Adaptation Assessment – cases
from B.C.– Okanagan/Columbia: water, agriculture and other users
– Forestry: pests, fire
• Expanding the Dialogue on Climate Impacts & Adaptation—C-CIARN B.C.
Average temperatures are increasing in BC
Change in temperature over 20th Century ( °C/100
years)Source: BC Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection – Environmental Trends, 2000
www.gov.bc.ca/wlap
Source: BC Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection – Environmental Trends,
2000 www.gov.bc.ca/wlap
Nighttime minimum temperatures are rising faster than daytime maximums.
Glaciers in retreat
Source: IPCC, Third Assessment Report, 2001
Precipitation has increased in southern BC
Change in precipitation over 20th Century (
%/decade)Source: BC Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection – Environmental Trends, 2000
www.gov.bc.ca/wlap
Lake & river ice is melting earlier in northern and interior BC
Change in date of first melt, 1945-1993 (
days/decade)Source: BC Ministry of Water, Land and Air Protection – Environmental Trends, 2000
www.gov.bc.ca/wlap
Water Management & Climate Change in the
Okanagan/Columbia
Water Resources in the Columbia River Basin
System objectives affected by winter flowsWinter hydropower production (PNW demand)
System objectives affected by summer flowsFlood controlSummer hydropower production (California demand)IrrigationInstream flow for fishRecreation
Source: Alan Hamlet
University of Washington
Columbia Basin Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow
• Less snow, earlier melt means less water in summer – irrigation
– urban uses
– fisheries protection
– energy production
• More water in winter– energy production
– flooding
Natural Columbia River flow at the Dalles, Oregon
Source: P. Mote, University of Washington
50
60
70
80
90
100F
irm E
nerg
y
No
n-F
irm E
nerg
y
Gra
nd C
oul
ee
Re
cre
atio
n
Lo
we
r G
rani
te F
ish
Flo
w
McN
ary
Fis
h F
low
Sna
ke I
rrig
atio
n
Sna
ke R
ive
r N
avig
atio
n
Flo
od
Co
ntro
l
Current Climate
ECHAM4 2040's
PCM 2040's
Will the Columbia Basin System meet its Water Management Objectives in the 2040s?
Source: Alan Hamlet
University of Washington
Okanagan Climate Change Scenario:Implications for Water Management
Projected changes in Growing Degree Days (> 5 C)
Kelowna Airport (Brewer & Taylor, 2001)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Month
De
gre
e D
ay
s
1961-90 2020s 2050s 2080s
IrrigationIrrigation
districtdistrictAllocationAllocation
ReportedReported
UseUseCrop water demandCrop water demand SourceSource
1996-991996-99 1961-19901961-1990 2069-20902069-2090
OliverOliver 75.475.4 26.126.1 21.621.6 29.429.4MainMain
channelchannel
PentictonPenticton 8.08.0 7.47.4 6.66.6 9.19.1Tributary Tributary + Main+ Main
SummerlandSummerland 20.920.9 9.79.7 13.713.7 19.119.1 TributaryTributary
NaramataNaramata 13.613.6 1.91.9 3.73.7 4.94.9 TributaryTributary
Source: Denise Neilsen, Agriculture & Agrifood Canada
N
Penticton
x
Oliver
Okanagan Falls
Skaha Lake
Kelowna
Peachland
VernonOverview of
Okanagan study catchments
Camp Cr. (34
km2)
Dave’s Cr. (31
km2)
Vaseux Cr. (117
km2)
Bellevue Cr. (78 km2)
Whiteman Cr. (114 km2)
Pearson Cr. (73 km2)
Intra-annual flow variability (Dave’s Cr.)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Dis
char
ge
(m3/s
)
POR
2020
2050
2080
Intra-annual flow variability (Whiteman Cr)
0
20
40
60
80
100
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Dis
char
ge (
m3/s
) POR
2020
2050
2080
Stakeholder views on adaptationEngaging dialogue to identify adaptation strategies to scenarios of streamflow reductions during the growing season in the Okanagan Basin
Web site: http://www.sdri.ubc.ca/publications
Preferred adaptation options among the stakeholders?Structural (e.g. building upland dams) and social measures (e.g., buy out water licenses) preferred over institutional measures
Some implications of their choices?Stakeholders identified the high cost of dams, associated impacts on fisheries, and difficulties in restricting development as possible implications of their adaptation choices.
adaptation dialogue is just beginning...
Water Management & Climate Change in the Okanagan—Study Framework
Forest Management & Climate Change in Interior and
Northern British Columbia
2001: Mountain pine beetle damage
Mountain Pine Beetle
– limits
• Cool summers • Winter
minimums (below -40°C)
ALBERTACOLUMBIABRITISH
-40-40
Source: Allan Carroll
Canadian Forest Service
Areas of susceptible pine and Mountain Pine Beetle (MPB) infestation since 1910A
rea
of s
usce
ptib
le p
ine
(ha
× 1
06 )A
rea
of s
usce
ptib
le p
ine
(ha
× 1
06 )
MP
B outbreak area (ha ×
103)
MP
B outbreak area (ha ×
103)
19101910 19301930 19501950 19701970 19901990 20102010
00
22
44
66
88
1010
00
250250
500500
750750
10001000
12501250
15001500
YearYear
• Frequent large-scale MPB outbreaks during last century
• Size of outbreaks correlated with increase in susceptible pine
• Frequent large-scale MPB outbreaks during last century
• Size of outbreaks correlated with increase in susceptible pine
Source: Allan Carroll
Canadian Forest Service
Very low
Low
Extreme
Moderate
High
Climatic suitability
1941 - 1970 1971 - 2000
2001 - 2030 2031 - 2060
Climatically suitable habitat for the mountain pine beetle
Source: Allan Carroll
Canadian Forest Service
Scenario changes to fire weather, BC and Alberta(Mackenzie Basin Impact Study, 1997)
1980s
2050s
Eff ect of elevational transfer
on Vol/ha of lodgepole pine in SE BC
R2 = 0.42
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80-1
00
0
-80
0
-60
0
-40
0
-20
0 0
20
0
40
0
60
0
80
0
100
0
120
0
Elevational transfer (m)
Vol
/ha
devi
atio
n (%
) fr
om
'loc
al'
sour
ce
Source: Greg O’Neill, BCMOF
In SE B.C., Lodgepole Pine seedlings can achieve greater yield if planted at elevations higher than
their origin!
Research has identified some important potential impacts for forestry and agriculture in British Columbia
• BC is already experiencing climate change
• Glaciers are receding, affecting summertime water supply
• Future water supply will be affected by changes in timing of snowmelt; watersheds will likely have more water in winter and less in summer
• Growing seasons will lengthen and become warmer
• Forest pest and fire risks will likely increase in interior BC, and expand to higher elevations and latitudes
Impacts & Adaptation Research in British Columbia:
Important New Questions
• How will water supply and demand change?– Increasing population and changes in land use may limit our ability to
adapt to water supply changes.
– Climate change may constrain possible adaptation strategies, such as expanded irrigation, and controlled reservoir releases to support fisheries and electric power production.
• How will climate change alter forest management?– Reforestation plans have to consider climate changes over the lifetime of
newly planted trees.
– What will future harvest levels be, and can they sustain communities?
• How will climate risks change for communities?– Are businesses and governments making planning and management
decisions based on the assumption that climate will not change?
– How can uncertain climate “scenarios” be incorporated into assessments of risks and opportunities?
C-CIARN B.C. is Expanding the Dialogue on Climate Impacts & Adaptation
• C-CIARN BC and partners are holding workshops with academic researchers – UBC, Okanagan College, University of Victoria, Malaspina
College, Simon Fraser University
• C-CIARN BC and partners are initiating dialogue with stakeholders throughout BC– Columbia Basin (Cranbrook), northern BC (UNBC and region)
• Through this process, stakeholders and researchers are raising concerns about:– Need for expanded monitoring programs– Vulnerability of regional economies and questions about
adaptation options– Concerns about impacts on health and lifestyle– Unknown potential for “surprise” impacts
C-CIARN BC is Promoting New Research Opportunities in Climate
Impacts & Adaptation
• Encourage stakeholder participation in earliest phases of impacts/adaptation research.– Promotes interdisciplinary collaboration and the
application of local knowledge and experience
• Identify potential new vulnerabilities or adaptation opportunities that should be studied.– Adapting to climate change is about becoming more
resilient to current and future climate variability and risks
C-CIARN B.C. Advisory Committee Affiliates:Agriculture and Agrifood Canada (AAFCa)
BC Hydro
Canadian Association of Physicians for the Environment
Canadian Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fisheries Commission
Community Representative (East Kootenays)
Environment Canada (EC)
Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD)
Ministry of Water Land and Air Protection (MWLAP)
Okanagan University College (OUC)
Royal Roads University (RRU)
Simon Fraser University (SFU)
University of British Columbia (UBC)
University of Northern British Columbia (UNBC)
University of Victoria (UVic)
