presentation for sbs - 2013 03 05 - 001 - public

The Future of Renewable EnergiesFocus on Emerging Markets

Steve Laycock5th March 2013

All info confidential and proprietary

avenue de la Raquette 12a1150 [email protected]

3 May 2023 aeltari - all info confidential and proprietary 2

Aeltari

• Astrophysics• Management of Large High Tech

International Projects



Aeltari Stuff

• PV Project Development• ITEA2 Project -- ENERFICIENCY• Consultancy:

– High-tech (eg superconducting magnets)– Renewables – PV– Smart Cities– Solar Lighting


Presentation Outline

AeltariWhy we should invest in renewables? Atmosphere and climate €, £, $, ¥What we did Invest in the futureWhere are we nowAeltari – a project


Why Renewables – The Fundamentals

Maximize

NPV= C0 + Σ Ct / ( 1 + r)t

What is t? What is r?


Some planets

Planet Distance (from Sun) Mean Temperature Comments

Mercury 58,000,000 km 167°C (467°C, to -183°C)

NO atmosphere Sees cold space

Venus 108,000,000 km 462°C Dense atmosphereHOT as Hell

Earth 150,000,000 km 14.6°C (13.9°C 100 years ago)

Lovely


Greenhouse Effect

• Sunlight comes in – warms planet• Infrared (heat) can’t get out

Gas

Formula

Contribution(%)

Water vapour H2O 60%

Carbon dioxide

CO2 26%

Methane CH4 6%

Ozone O3 8%


C02 & Climate a Correlation?


Maximise NPV

NPV = C0 + ΣCt / ( 1 + r)t

tmax & r do you care about future generations?

C0 Investments in renewables

Future cash flows, Ct will be much smaller if we

significantly damage the Earth

Tragedy of the Commons?


Need Energy

• Photovoltaic very simple (solid state) but variable output, large scale, small scale & can be local

• Solar thermal great value, local

• Wind aesthetics (NIMBYs) & mechanics, best when large

• Geothermal super depending on the place

• Hydro large sources used up? Small hydro!

• Wave exciting but difficult

• Tide needs more study

• Biomass depends on details

• Nuclear could make a great comeback


Make Investments Now

• Make renewables less expensive• Learning curve – economies of scale• Cost of PV decreasing rapidly

now €0.60/Wp (efficiency 20%)

• 91GWp of PV installed -- mainstream


Worldwide


Consequences

Without factoring in the hidden costs of fossil fuels (climate, large armies, political costs)

– Renewables start to become a “no brainer”– Lower cost than conventional!– Deconstructed supply side– Need for energy storage– Long distance energy transport– Smarter grids, buildings, transport etc

One example


Incomes

Installed Power 125.0 kWp Proportion of Bank Loan 0.0%Energy Yield 1800 kWh/kWp/y Interest Rate 5.5% /year

Bank Loan Period 20 years Average Value 0.00 €/MWhPrice per Watt Peak 3.00 €/Wp First repayment after 1 years Green Cert Value (GCV) 0.00 €/MWh

Total Investment 375,000.00 € NPV Discount Rate 7.0% GC Period (GCP) 25 YearsSubsidised €/Wp 3 €/Wp

Investment after subsidy 375,000.00 € Electricity price to client 0.1000 €/kWhBank loan amount 0.00 € Electricity price to grid 0.2600 €/kWh

Land 0.00 €/y Cash invested 375,000.00 € % to grid 100%Land Cost Inflation 2.0% /year Mean Electricity Price 0.2600 €/kWh

Amortisation time 15 years Electricity Price Inflation 3.00% /yearMaintenance 0.50% of total/year Module Degradation 0.50% /year

Insurance 0.30% of total/year Minimum DSCR Required 1.20General Inflation 2.0% /year DSCR OK? #DIV/0! Investment subsidy 0%First year costs 3,000.00 € Minimum DSCR Found #DIV/0! Investment subsidy 0.00 €

Corporate tax 0.00% Investment subsidy paid at 0 year(s)

Year NPV IRR Year NPV IRR Year NPV IRR0 -375,000.00 €1 -323,130.84 € -85.2% 16 238,567.90 € 14.9% 31 533,827.67 € 17.1%2 -273,437.66 € -53.0% 17 264,692.28 € 15.3% 32 547,557.97 € 17.1%3 -225,829.23 € -30.8% 18 289,720.22 € 15.6% 33 560,711.79 € 17.1%4 -180,218.15 € -16.8% 19 313,697.71 € 15.9% 34 573,313.31 € 17.2%5 -136,520.67 € -7.7% 20 336,668.81 € 16.1% 35 585,385.72 € 17.2%6 -94,656.57 € -1.5% 21 358,675.74 € 16.3% 36 596,951.21 € 17.2%7 -54,548.98 € 2.8% 22 379,758.93 € 16.4% 37 608,031.06 € 17.2%8 -16,124.24 € 5.9% 23 399,957.15 € 16.5% 38 618,645.65 € 17.2%9 20,688.21 € 8.2% 24 419,307.51 € 16.6% 39 628,814.51 € 17.2%

10 55,955.98 € 10.0% 25 437,845.59 € 16.7% 40 638,556.35 € 17.2%11 89,743.84 € 11.4% 26 455,605.45 € 16.8%12 122,113.86 € 12.4% 27 472,619.76 € 16.9%13 153,125.48 € 13.3% 28 488,919.79 € 16.9%14 182,835.70 € 13.9% 29 504,535.51 € 17.0%15 211,299.07 € 14.5% 30 519,495.64 € 17.0%

PV Plant Properties & Costs Financing and NPV

Give Data

-95.0%

-85.0%

-75.0%

-65.0%

-55.0%

-45.0%

-35.0%

-25.0%

-15.0%

-5.0%

5.0%

15.0%

25.0%

-400,000.00 €

-200,000.00 €

- €

200,000.00 €

400,000.00 €

600,000.00 €

800,000.00 €

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40

Value after Taxes

NPV

IRR

€/MWh for Years

Thank you


Dr Steven [email protected]+32 477 32 27 46+32 2 880 94 86

avenue de la Raquette 12a1150 [email protected]

presentation for sbs - 2013 03 05 - 001 - public

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