presentation by charles f. robinson clearwater, florida a strategic conversation about the future...

Presentation byCharles F. Robinson

Clearwater, Florida

www.CharlesRobinsonFuturist.com

A Strategic Conversation

About the Future of the New

Hampshire Bar

© 2005 Charles F. Robinson

Chief Justice Broderick

“I believe that when we look back at the legal landscape 15 years from now, we will barely recognize today.

It would be silly to think that with technology moving at the speed of light, that the practice of law and the court system will remain largely as they are.

We need to do all that we can to design the future.”


Tom Peters Predicts

Ninety per cent white-collar jobs will disappear in the next ten years.

What color collars do lawyers wear?

Is there an exception for lawyers?


Stare Decisis- Walking Through Life

Backwards


Change Implications

Speeches, articles, and even retreats to teach how to deal with change won’t change behavior without Follow-up positive reinforcement Multidisciplinary support Framing change in a way to bridge the

present with the future

If your passion for change is subsumed in the tyranny of the urgent Monday morning you will hate change even more


Leading the Profession to a Preferred Future

If we don’t drive the vehicle to our future we will end up wherever we are taken

Institutionalize search for foresight


Scenario Thinking

Focus on the capability of the organization toPerceive what is going on in the practice

environmentThink through what this means for the bench

and barAct upon the new knowledge


Objectives

Get beyond traditional thinking that Acts like a filter, restricting the ability to

perceive new informationImprisons us with personal biases and

routines within a world of recipes and business-as-usual assumptions

Frames our response automatically


A Strategic Conversation

A chance to rehearse the future but not predict the future.

Change is too complex to allow prediction.Looking for the “dots on the horizon”-signs

of change and how we should adapt.Must move toward adaptive organizational

learning Perception Thinking Action


Wired Magazine (January, 1998)

Guardians of the old order are trying their best to hold back change and preserve their power.


Bill Gates Warning

“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.”


Tom Peters

“If you don’t like change, you are going to like irrelevance even less”


"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.“

Thomas Watson Chairman of IBM,1943


“This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.”

Western Union internal memo, 1876.


“I’m just glad it’ll be Clark Gable who’s falling on his face and not Gary Cooper.”

Gary Cooper on his decision not to

take the leading role in “Gone With the Wind”


“Everything that can be invented has been invented.”

Charles H. Duell,Commissioner,

US Office of Patents, 1899


Toxic Assumptions of the Legal Profession


Lawyers have a monopoly on the interpretation of the law.


The practice of law is a profession and not a business.


The practice of law is a business and not a profession.


“What Are the Forces Already at Work in Our Profession That Have

the Potential to Profoundly Transform Our Profession’s Structure?”

Each Force a “Discontinuity”Examine Implications for Each

Discontinuous Force


Current Forces Impacting the Profession

Nonlawyer competition

Diminished perceived value in attorney services

Technology displacement

Lawyer supply exceeds demand

Disintermediation- Out with the middle person


The Lawyer’s World is Flat

Program to run in 3 Texas Law Schools this year

Focus on how practice is changing and what law students and young lawyers can do to thrive in the 21st century

Business as usual not an option


The World is FlatA Brief History Of The

21st Century

Thomas L. Friedman

The 10 Forces That Flattened the World


Flattener 1- 11/9/1989 Fall of Berlin Wall

Ultimately liberated all Soviet Union captive people

Tipped balance of power to those advocating democratic, consensual, free-market-oriented governance

Capitalism the only surviving choice


Flattener 2 - 8/9/95Netscape goes Public

From PC-based computing platform to Internet-based platform

Killer applications E-mail Internet browsing

Netscape first mainstream browser culture for general public

Internet stopped being province of early adopters and geeks


Flattener 3 - Work Flow Software

Work flow moved from manual work flow toSeamless interoperable work flowSeamless interoperable work flow with

other companiesWith standard language (XML)

makes e-filing possibleGlobal platform for multiple

forms of collaboration

Let’s Do Lunch: Have Your ApplicationLet’s Do Lunch: Have Your ApplicationTalk to MyTalk to My ApplicationApplication


Flattener 4- Open-SourcingSelf-Organizing Collaborative Communities

Bottom up, shared, constantly improved by users, available free to anyone

Motive is the “psychic buzz” that comes from creating a collective product that can beat something produced by giants like Microsoft and IBM

Example - Apache an open source software system, powers 2/3 of the world’s web sites

Wikipedia the open source encyclopediaLinux- Top candidate to replace Windows OS


Flattener 5 - OutsourcingY2K

IndiaNo natural resourcesMines brains of its own by educating a relatively

large slice of its elites in Sciences Engineering Medicine

Creates giant knowledge meritocracyA talent factory for engineering, computer

science, and software for the globe- Law?Software engineers took lead in fixing Y2K bug


Flattener 6- OffshoringRunning with Gazelles, Eating with Lions

Every morning in Africa, a gazelle wakes up.

It knows it must run faster than the fastest lion or it will be killed.

Every morning a lion wakes up.

It knows it must outrun the slowest gazelle or it will starve to death.

It doesn’t matter if you are a It doesn’t matter if you are a lion or a gazelle.lion or a gazelle.

When the sun comes up, When the sun comes up, you better start running.you better start running.


Outsourcing v. Offshoring

Outsourcing- Take specific, but limited function that you were doing in-house, eg Research Document drafting

Have outsource company take those functions for you and you reintegrate their work back into your operation


Offshoring

Takes a part of the firm in Canton, Ohio and moves it to Canton, China.

The firm produces the work in the same way with lower taxes, cheaper labor, subsidized energy, and lower health-care costs

Really started 12-11-2001 when China formally joined the WTO.

Made China’s own competitive playing field as level as the rest of the world

China agreed to follow international law and standard business practices

Not certain who is lion, who is gazelleNot certain who is lion, who is gazelle


Chinese looking to future as designers

May be 10 years outIn 30 years will have gone from

Sold in China Made in China Designed in China Dreamed up in China


“If Americans and Europeans want to benefit from the flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

Thomas Friedman


Flattener 7 - Supply-Chaining

When a customer lifts a product off the shelf the cashier scans it in. At that moment:

A signal is generated from the Wal-Mart network to the supplier

The signal shows up on the supplier’s screen To make another of that item and ship it via

the Wal-Mart supply chain, and the whole cycle will start anew

Wal-Mart database is entire Internet X 2


Flattener 8- Insourcing

UPS slogan-

Your World Synchronized

What the guys in the Funny Brown Shorts Are Really Doing


Not just package delivery; synchronizing global supply chains

Toshiba laptops under warranty Instructions to ship UPS to Toshiba Actually goes to UPS Louisville

hub for repair by UPS instead of UPS to Toshiba to UPS to customer



UPS dispatches Papa John pizza deliveryNike Shoes

UPS has spent $1billion since 1996 to serve any supply chain in the world



Flattener 9- In-FormingGoogle, Yahoo!, MSN Web Search

Informing is the ability to build and deploy your own personal supply chain- a supply chain of information, knowledge, and entertainment.

Allows self-collaboration- becoming your own self-directed and self-empowered researcher, editor without a trip to the library.

Searching for knowledge.


Flattener 9- In-FormingGoogle, Yahoo!, MSN Web Search

Seeking like-minded people and communities

Google doing over one billion searches per day

iPod, Ceiva, TiVo, Amazon


Flattener 10- The SteroidsDigital, Mobile, Personal, and Virtual

Taking all forms of collaboration- outsourcing, offshoring, open-sourcing, supply-chaining, insourcing, and in-forming, and doing so in a way that is Digital Mobile Virtual Personal

Enhancing each one and making the world flatter by the day


What Do We Tell Our Kids/Grandkids?

Only one message-

You must constantly upgrade your skills

“Children, when I was growing up, my parents used to say to me,

‘Tom finish your dinner- people in China and Tom finish your dinner- people in China and India are starving.India are starving.’

My advice to you is:

Kids, finish your homework- people in China Kids, finish your homework- people in China and India are starving for your jobsand India are starving for your jobs..”


Become an “Untouchable”

People whose jobs cannot be outsourcedFour broad categories


Special

Michael JordanBill Gates


Specialized

Work cannot be outsourced because niche not fungibleFungible means easily digitized or substitutedLawyers in niche practicesManagement consultantsBrain SurgeonsCutting edge computer architectsCutting edge software engineersSkills that are in high demand and not fungible


Chief Justice Broderick

“It is a consumer world and lawyers are often seen as fungible commodities.”


Anchored

For those who cannot be special or specialized

Job must be done in a specific location involving face-to face contact Barber Chef/waitperson Home town lawyers with minimum fungibility Car Mechanic Plumber Dentist


Anchored

Compensation determined by local conditions

Lawyer may outsource fungible services like research or document drafting to a legal aide in Bangalore


Really Adaptable

Acquire new skills, knowledge, and expertise that enable value creation

Skillfully and socially adaptableAble to learn how to learnMay be survival skill for the anchored

lawyer


The Threatened

Those who areNot very specialNot very specializedNot very anchoredNot very adaptable


The Triple Convergence

Convergence One- The “ten forces” converge in complementary, mutually enhancing fashion- One machine scans, emails, prints, faxes, and copies

Convergence Two- Move from vertical chain of command for value creation to horizontal collaboration

Convergence Three- You don’t have to live in America to get good work. It’s a plug and play world.


How the Profession Can Cope

Rule 1: When the world goes flat- and you are feeling flattened-reach for a shovel and dig inside yourself.

Don’t try to build walls


How the Profession Can Cope

Rule 2- And the small shall act big…One way small companies flourish in the flat world is by learning to act real big. Take advantage of new tools for collaboration to reach farther, faster, wider, and deeper.


How Firms Can Cope

Rule 3: And the big shall act small… One way that big companies learn to flourish in the flat world is by learning how to act really small by enabling their customers to act really big. Make business a buffet for customers to serve themselves in their own way. Self directed consumer

Rule 4: The best companies are the best collaborators


Cycles and Trends


Trends v. Cycles

Cycle says wait it out and it will come back. Weather Markets

Trend says will not likely return to status quo We must deal with it or Let it take us wherever the trend goes

Watch out for Wild Cards


Trend or Cycle

1. Substantive Practice Areas Threateneda. Family Law

b. Real Estate

c. Tax and Estate Planning

d. PI Defense

e. Litigation

f. Business advice


Substantive Practice Areas Threatened

Family Law>70% Pro SeRules of Civil Procedure gone


Pro se litigation

One party pro se in 85% of all cases in District Court and 48% in Superior Court

Both sides unrepresented in 38% of casesDomestic relations cases 70% one partyDomestic violence cases 97% one party

Report on NH Supreme Court Task Force on Self-Represented Litigants- January 2004



Real EstateRealtorsInternet


Tax and Estate PlanningWills on-lineFinancial Planners, CPADeath of “Death Tax”



Jonathon Blattmachr

Estate tax eliminated in Canada over 20 years ago

First few years lawyers busy adjusting estate plans

After that Trusts & Estates practice dropped by 90%


Estate Tax Repeal

Passed in House- Pending in SenateWhat are the implications to CLE

providers and estate planning lawyers?Is Canada’s repeal a model?



House CounselTrade Association legal advice


PI DefenseInsurance companiesTort Reform



Tort Reform

“Economically destructive litigation”US most expensive tort system in the world$179 billion 2002 direct costs

$636 per capita 150% of amount spent on pharmaceuticals

Bills pending in 20 states11 states have passed legislation

“Trends” Volume 1, Issue 3, July 2003


Senator Chuck Schumer, D NY

“Lawsuits have gotten out of control in America and something needs to be done to rein them in.”


President Bush- 2004

“Lawyers walk away with up to 40% of every settlement….for frivolous suits…driving a wedge between them (doctor) and patient.”

Unnecessary lawsuits drive docs to prescribe drugs and procedures to avoid lawsuits.


House OKs Fines for Lawyers for Meritless Suits

House Majority Leader Tom DeLay

“…pestilent culture of hyper-litigation.”

Congress should “take back America’s legal system from the Lords of the Ambulance Chase.”

Reuters 9-14-04



LitigationSport for the wealthyGovernment attack on PI and Med MalPro se litigators


What is greatest problem facing the bar and its members today, ignorance or apathy?


Mary Ryan, ABA Committee on Delivery of Legal Services

“A lawyer is best defined as someone who provides the best services in a free market, not the only services in a protected market.”


Are We Really Prisoners of Nostalgia??


Trend or Cycle

1. Substantive Practice Areas Threatened

2. MJP


M PJ MDP AB P

What Does It Mean For Your Practice?

SA


2. Multijurisdictional Practice

Birbrower et. al v. Superior Court of Santa Clara County, 949 P.2d 1 (Cal 1998)


New Jersey MJP ArgumentsApril 2003

“Specific knowledge of New Jersey law, or the laws of any state, is overemphasized.” “You go to the computer or have someone do

it for you.”

“What are we, Planet New Jersey?”


New Jersey MJP contd

There are 60,000 New Jersey residents working in Philadelphia, and many thousands more in New York state.

What is rationale to place arbitrary borders on regional practice?


MJP and reciprocity -breaking down the borders

The essential elements for reciprocal admission of Washington, Oregon, Utah and Wyoming attorneys in Idaho are:

Graduation from an ABA approved law school. Prior passage of the Washington, Oregon, Utah

and/or Wyoming bar examination. Three years of practice in Washington, Oregon,

Utah or Wyoming.Good moral character. Fifteen hours of CLE

Practice Procedure Ethics


Borderless World

Regional/National reciprocity 26 states now

GATS TreatyDriver’s license approach

in 5-10 years


Trend or Cycle


2. MJP

3. Technology


Law Office of the Future

A computer + a dog + a lawyer.The computer will practice law.The dog is there to keep the lawyer away from

the computer.The lawyer is there to feed the dog.

Dr. Peter Bishop, Associate professor of Human Sciences

University of Houston-Clear Lake


3. Technology Disintermediation

Internet Available to Everyone Wills, Tax Return

Prep On-line

Like Printing Press to Church/Temple

Literacy Brings New Relationships


The Future of Law: Facing the Challenges of Information Technology

Legal Profession Will Change Beyond Recognition

Three Types of Legal Service Traditional Commoditized Latent

Richard Susskind

TraditionalCommodity

Latent


Susskind’s Key Questions

Likely developments in IT over next 10 years

Possibilities for law practice in light of IT changes

Future for lawyers and what part is the world wide web likely to play


Transforming the Law; Essays on Technology, Justice and the Legal Marketplace-

Richard Susskind 2000

Introduces the “Susskind Grid”

First work tying together technology use and strategic future planning for lawyers

Selection ServiceRecognition

Figure 2.1 - Today’s Client Service Chain

blatanttrigger

selection of lawyer

consultativeadvice

C Richard Susskind 2000

Figure 2.4 - Transforming the Recognition elementof the Client Service Chain

blatanttrigger

proactiveservice

• infomediaries• legal audits• push technology• intelligent agents• embedded expertise• Intranet implants• business-episode based

Transforming the Recognitionelement of the Client Service Chain

blatanttrigger

from to


Figure 2.3 - Transforming the Selection elementof the Client Service Chain

selection of source of

guidance

selection of online service

selection of adviser

• assessment of need• infomediaries

• infomediaries

• infomediaries• online auctions• virtual teams

tofrom selection of lawyer

Transforming the Selectionelement of the Client Service Chain


Figure 2.2 - Transforming the Service elementof the Client Service Chain

unbundledservices

onlineservice

consultativeadvice

• commoditized• latent market• multi-disciplinary

• high-end, traditional

• project management • document management• legal research• strategy

Transforming the Serviceelement of the Client Service Chain

from consultativeadvice to


Selection ServiceRecognition

Figure 2.5 - Tomorrow’s Client Service Chain

blatanttrigger

selection of source of

guidance

unbundledservices

proactiveservice

selection of online service

selection of adviser

onlineservice

consultativeadvice



Technology Disintermediation- Trend or Cycle?

What are implications if Susskind is correct?

Traditional- large firm, large client onlyCommodity- better, faster, cheaperLatent- may be no direct client contact


Trend or Cycle


2. MJP

3. Technology

4. Offshoring/reintermediation


4. Offshoring/Intermediation-Trend or Cycle?


Intel CEO Craig BarrettJan-Feb 2004 Business 2.0

In space of 5 years close to 3 billion people have been brought into mainstream capitalist economic infrastructure (India, China, Russia and some Russian satellite countries)

Substantially lower wages with comparable or superior education to US applicants.

“Unless you’re my auto mechanic or plumber, I don’t care where the hell you’re located.”


Brad Hildebrandt 1-14-04

Outsourcing to India $10 billion in next 5 years

Hildebrandt offering 3 choices Consult with firm re outsourcing Several clients form captive outsourcing

firm Joint venture with existing

outsourcing company


Lou Dobbs Report

8-10% of all associates hired by large law firms will be offshore hires (as in India) by 2011. 2000 1,793 off-shore 2005 14,200 2010 34,673 2015 74,672 U.S. Dept of Labor & Forrester Research

The new associates will take on roughly the same work as new associates handle in the firms now at less than 20% of the cost.


Outsourcing Hits Legal Services Star Tribune 1-16-2004

“First it was apparel workers-the working class-who saw their $10-an-hour jobs go overseas.”

“Now six-figure lawyers and legal support staffs are starting to sweat.” Westlaw has test office in Bombay

GE and other behemoths using Indian lawyers to supplant work formerly done by outside law firms.


Outsourcing Hits Legal Services contd

Forrester Research- by 2015 489,000 U.S. lawyer jobs will shift to lower cost countries

Mindcrest Inc. legal process outsourcing Enhanced levels of service and a 30-70%

lower cost to customer


“About a year ago I hired a developer in India to do my job. I pay him $12,000 to do the job I get paid $67,300 for. He is happy to have the work. I am happy that I only have to work about 90 minutes per day (I still have to attend meetings myself, and I spend a few minutes every day talking code with my Indian counterpart.) The rest of my time my employer thinks I’m telecommuting. They are happy to let me telecommute because my output is higher than most of my coworkers. Now I’m considering getting a second job and doing the same thing with it. That may be pushing my luck though. The extra money would be nice, but that could push my workday over five hours.” —from posting at Slashdot (02.04.04), reported by Dan Pink


No Limits?

“Short on Priests, U.S. Catholics Outsource Prayer to Indian Clergy”

—Headline, New York Times/06.13.04 (“Special intentions,” $.90 for Indians, $5.00 for Americans)


Level 5 (top) certification/Carnegie Mellon Software

Engineering Institute:

35 of 70 companies in world are from India

Source: Wired/02.04


Bye-Bye Associates?

“…the kind of work now being sent off shore, and expected to be increasingly sent off-shore, is work normally done by first/second-year associates in the largest law firms -- research, legal memos, that kind of thing.


Lexadigm.com


Elawforum.com


John Henry- Founder/CEO elawforum

Aggregates large company legal problems and negotiates fixed-fee deals

“We just saved a client $55 million in 2 deals.”

“Our challenge now is to do a thousand of these deals.”


So Now What Do We Do?

Will our guild return to those glory days of yesteryear?

Are we experiencing discontinuous trends or are we merely in a cycle?

“I am persuaded more than ever that the status quo is not our friend,” Broderick

First question- Is status quo an option?


So Now What Do We Do?

If answer to #1 is no, how do we get into the change process?

Role of the barRole of the individual lawyer/law firm


Change or Die Fast Company May 2005

What if you were given that choice?

Yes, you say?

Try again

Yes?

You are probably deluding yourself

You wouldn’t change

You want odds?

Nine to one against you

How do you like those odds?


IBM Global Innovation Outlook Conference 2004

Most farsighted thinkers from around the world to come together in New York to propose solutions to really big problems


Global Innovation Problem One-Health Care

Crisis- $1.8 trillion/year in US alone 15% of gross domestic product

Dream team of experts expected to discuss Scientific breakthroughs Technology breakthroughs


Root cause of Health Care Crisis Hasn’t Changed for Decades!

Medical establishment can’t figure out what to do about it.

Vast majority of health-care budget for well known and by and large behavioral. Sick because of how we choose to lead our

lives Not because of genetic factors beyond control


80% Health Care Budget Consumed by 5 Behavioral Issues

SmokingDrinkingEatingStressInsufficient exercise


Coronary Bypass Surgery and Angioplasty Patients

Many patients could avoid return of pain and need to repeat the surgery, not to mention arrest the course of their disease before it kills them by switching to healthier lifestyles, but

90% don’t


Changing Behavior of People

Not just the biggest challenge in health care

Also the biggest challenge in business (law practice)

Central issue is never Strategy Structure Systems

Changing behavior of peopleJohn Kotter

“The bottleneck is located at the top of the bottle”

Gary Hamel


21st Century Challenges

Competing in a turbulent worldBeing ready to respond to profound

upheavals in market dynamics such as Shift from regulated to deregulated

environment Entry into new practice areas Changing style of our work

Mentoring Technology advances


Does Crisis Bring Change?


Does Crisis Bring Change?

Conventional wisdom says Yes

What about the heart disease victims?Giving people accurate analyses and

factual information about their situations?No

Why do we fight what we know to be in our own vital interests?


Kotter’s Insight

Behavior change happens mostly by speaking to people’s feelings.

True even in organizations focused on analysis and quantitative measurement.

Highly successful change efforts require that people see problems or solutions in ways that influence emotions, not just thought.


Emotional Persuasion

Not taught in business schoolsDoesn’t come naturally to those who

pride themselves on analytical thinking Lawyers Engineers Accountants Managers


The Ornish Experiment- Preventative Medicine Research Center

Providing health care information important but not sufficient

Need additional dimensions Psychological Emotional Spiritual


Ornish Program

Vegetarian diet with less than 10% calories from fat.

Can reduce heart disease without surgery or drugs.

Medical establishment skeptical that people could sustain.


Mutual of Omaha sponsored trial-1993

333 patients with severely clogged arteriesHelped to quit smokingPut on Ornish dietTwice-weekly group support sessions led

by psychologist Meditation Relaxation Yoga Aerobic exercise


Ornish Program contd

Program lasted 1 yearAfter 3 years, 77% of people stuck

with lifestyle changes and avoided bypass or angioplasty surgeries

Mutual of Omaha saved $30,000 per patient


Why did Ornish Program Work?

Changes reason for change from fear of dying

Joy of living from feeling better and thinking of freedom from pain

“Joy is a more powerful motivator than fear.”

Dean Ornish, MD Dean Ornish, MD


Framing Change

Frames are the “mental structures that shape the way we see the world.”

Part of the “cognitive unconscious”

The way we know what our frames are, or create new ones, springs from language.


Our Frames

Do we see our law firm as a Military model with hierarchical chain of

command? Family? Village?

Each model would have us working together in different ways


The Big Challenge to Change Thinking

Our minds rely on frames, not factsConcepts are tied in the synapses of the

brain and are not changed by presenting us with a fact

For us to make sense of facts, the facts have to work within our concepts

Otherwise, facts go in and then right back out


When Facts Don’t Fit Our Concepts

They are not heard, orThey are not accepted as facts, orThey mystify us.Then we label the fact as irrational, crazy,

or stupid.The reason conservatives and liberals

each think the other side nuts. Brains are working within different frames

George Lakoff, Professor of Cognitive Science and Linguistics, University of California at Berkeley


What kind of Change Works Best?


Radical sweeping change works better than small, incremental change.

Important that there be some early wins with the radical change that are Visible Timely Unambiguous Meaningful


Nicholas Negroponte

Incrementalism is Innovation’s Worst Enemy


Supporting Change

Remember 90% of the heart patients went back to old lifestyle but

77% of Ornish’s patients stayed with the radical change Weekly support groups with other patients Attention from dieticians, psychologists,

nurses, and yoga and meditation counselors


Is the Lawyer’s Brain Hardwired- Unable to Change?

Brain’s ability to change is lifelongSpecialists’ brain may develop in ways to

enhance the specialists skills but Specialization can instill rigidity

Brain stimulation through continuous learning works Active not the same as continuous learning

Learn Spanish or the oboe? What have you learned in the last 6 months? Self resume


If I Can’t Predict the Future, How Can I Prepare for the Future?

Peter Schwartz Inevitable Surprises

Build and maintain your sensory and intelligence systems.

Continue strategic conversations by discussing and interpreting the interaction of forces that might affect you.

Cultivate a sense of timing How rapidly is this approaching? When could it occur? How long do we have?


Preparing for the Future 2

Identify in advance the kinds of “early warning indicators” that would signal a change is rapidly upon you

Once the signals are identified, keep an eye out for them and be prepared to act when you observe them

Use short-term scenario exercises



Put in place mechanisms to engender creative destruction.

Discard what has worked in the past but may be moribund now.

What have you dismantled in the last year or two?

If none, may need to get some practice in before urgency strikes



Try to avoid denialDo not pretend that the “inevitable

surprise” is not happeningIf the scenario is plausible and you think it

would really hurt the organization, pay more attention to it



Be aware of the competence of your judgment, and the level of judgments new situations require

Move deliberately and humbly into new situations that stretch your judgment



Place a very, very high premium on learning.

Most failures to adapt are failures to learn enough in time about changing circumstances

Work will be increasingly knowledge intensive


Mary Ryan, ABA Committee on Delivery of Legal Services

“A lawyer is best defined as someone who provides the best services in a free market, not the only services in a protected market.”

WHO ARE WE?

WHAT’S OUR

STORY?

WHAT’S OUR

DREAM?

EXACTLY HOW ARE WE

DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT?


Dakota tribal wisdom says that when you discover you are

riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.



In law firms we often try other strategies with dead horses,

including the following:



Changing riders



Saying things like . . .

This is the way we always have

ridden this horse!



Dead Horse?

What dead horse?What dead horse?



Appointing a committee to study the horse



Arranging to visit other firms to see how they ride dead

horses



Increasing the standards to ride dead horses



Declare the horse is "better, faster and cheaper"

dead



Harnessing several dead horses together for increased

speed



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Today’s Agenda

Why worry about the future?The 2005 environmentTrends v. CyclesHow to lead change and make it stick


How Firms Can Cope

Rule 5: In a flat world, the best companies stay healthy by getting regular chest x-rays and then selling them to their clients. Typical company has 40-50 components

Where is firm best in class? Where is firm differentiated? Where do you have potential but don’t want to

spend the money to get great? Let go of what you can outsource and focus

on the core competencies


How Firms Can Cope

Rule 6: The best companies outsource to win, not to shrink. They outsource to innovate faster and more cheaply in order to grow larger, gain market share, and hire more and different specialists- not to save money by firing more people.

presentation by charles f. robinson clearwater, florida a strategic conversation about the future...

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