presentation | aggregate demand, idle time, and unemployment
TRANSCRIPT
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AGGREGATE DEMAND, IDLE TIME, ANDUNEMPLOYMENT
Pascal Michaillat, Emmanuel Saez
Quarterly Journal of Economics, 2015
Paper available at https://www.pascalmichaillat.org/3.html
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UNEMPLOYMENT FLUCTUATIONS REMAIN
INSUFFICIENTLY UNDERSTOOD
1980 1990 2000 2010 3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
Unem
plo
ym
entra
te
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UNEMPLOYMENT FLUCTUATIONS REMAIN
INSUFFICIENTLY UNDERSTOOD
1980 1990 2000 2010 3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
Unem
plo
ym
entra
te
technology?aggregate demand?
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UNEMPLOYMENT FLUCTUATIONS REMAIN
INSUFFICIENTLY UNDERSTOOD
1980 1990 2000 2010 3%
5%
7%
9%
11%
Unem
plo
ym
entra
te
mismatch?job search?labor-force participation?
technology?aggregate demand?
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MODERN MODELS
• matching model of the labor market
– tractable– but no aggregate demand
• New Keynesian model with matching frictions on the labormarket
– many shocks, including aggregate demand– but complex
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GENERAL-DISEQUILIBRIUM MODEL
• vast literature after Barro & Grossman [1971]
– revival after the Great Recession
• captures effect of aggregate demand on unemployment
• but supply-side factors are irrelevant in demand-determinedregimes
• and difficult to analyze because of multiple regimes
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THIS PAPER’S MODEL
• Barro-Grossman architecture
• matching structure on product market & labor market
– instead of disequilibrium structure– markets can be too slack or too tight but remain in
equilibrium
• aggregate demand affects unemployment
– as do labor productivity, mismatch, job search, andlabor-force participation
• simple: graphical representation of equilibrium
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BASIC MODEL: PRODUCT MARKET
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STRUCTURE
• static model
• measure 1 of identical households
• households produce and consume services
– no firms: services produced within households– households cannot consume their own services
• services are traded on matching market
• households visit other households to buy services
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MATCHING FUNCTION & TIGHTNESS
v visits
k services
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MATCHING FUNCTION & TIGHTNESS
v visits
sales
purchases
CRS matching function h(k,v)
k services
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MATCHING FUNCTION & TIGHTNESS
sales = =
purchases = =
output: y = h(k,v)
k services tightness: x = v / k
v visits
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LOW PRODUCT MARKET TIGHTNESS
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HIGH PRODUCT MARKET TIGHTNESS
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EVIDENCE OF UNSOLD CAPACITY
1990 2000 2010 0%
10%
20%
30%Idleness, non-manufacturingIdleness, manufacturingUnemployment
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MATCHING COST: ρ ∈ (0, 1) SERVICE PER VISIT
• consumption ≡ output net of matching services
– consumption, not output, yields utility
• key relationship: output = [1 + τ (x)] · consumption
• matching wedge τ (x) summarizes matching costs:
y︸︷︷︸output
= c︸︷︷︸consumption
+ ρ · v︸︷︷︸matching services
= c + ρ · yq(x)
⇒ y =
[1 + ρ
q(x−) − ρ
]· c ≡
[1 + τ (x
+)]· c
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EVIDENCE OF MATCHING COSTS
1997 2002 2007 2012
Th
ou
san
ds
of
wo
rker
s
0
250
500
750
PurchasingRecruiting
workers devoted to purchasing (matching on product market)
workers devoted to recruiting (matching on the labor market)
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CONSUMPTION < OUTPUT < CAPACITY
• output y < capacity k because the matching function prevents allservices from being sold
– selling probability f (x) < 1
• consumption c < output y because some services are devoted tomatching so cannot provide utility
– matching wedge τ (x) > 0
• consumption is directly relevant for welfare
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AGGREGATE SUPPLY
• aggregate supply ≡ number of services consumed at tightness x,given the supply of services k and matching process
cs(x) = f (x)1 + τ (x) · k = [f (x) − ρ · x] · k
• could represent aggregate supply in terms of output instead ofconsumption, but consumption is linked to welfare
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TIGHTNESS & AGGREGATE SUPPLY
capacity: k
prod
uct m
arke
t tig
htne
ss x
quantity of services
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TIGHTNESS & AGGREGATE SUPPLY
output: y = f(x) . k
capacity k
quantity of services
prod
uct m
arke
t tig
htne
ss x
idle time
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TIGHTNESS & AGGREGATE SUPPLY
aggregate supply:
output y capacity k
quantity of services
prod
uct m
arke
t tig
htne
ss x matching
cost
cs(x) = [f(x) � ⇢x]k
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TIGHTNESS & AGGREGATE SUPPLY
idle timematching
cost
capacity koutput y
consumption
aggregate supply cs(x)
quantity of services
prod
uct m
arke
t tig
htne
ss x
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MONEY
• money is in fixed supply µ
• households holdm units of money
• the price of services in terms of money is p
• real money balances enter the utility function
– Barro & Grossman [1971]– Blanchard & Kiyotaki [1987]
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HOUSEHOLDS
• take price p and tightness x as given
• choose c, m to maximize utility
χ
1 + χ · cε−1ε︸ ︷︷ ︸
services
+ 11 + χ ·
(mp
) ε−1ε
︸ ︷︷ ︸real money balances
• subject to budget constraint
m︸︷︷︸money
+ p · (1 + τ (x)) · c︸ ︷︷ ︸expenditure on services
= µ︸︷︷︸endowment
+ f (x) · p · k︸ ︷︷ ︸labor income
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AGGREGATE DEMAND
• optimal consumption decision:
(1 + τ (x))︸ ︷︷ ︸relative price
· 11 + χ ·
(mp
)− 1ε
︸ ︷︷ ︸MU of real money
=χ
1 + χ · c− 1ε︸ ︷︷ ︸
MU of services
• money market clears: m = µ
• aggregate demand gives desired consumption of services givenprice p and tightness x:
cd (x, p) =(
χ
1 + τ (x)
)ε· µp
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LINKING AGGREGATE DEMAND & VISITS
• there is a direct link between consumption of services, purchaseof services, and visits
• if the desired consumption is cd (x, p)
• the desired number of purchases is
(1 + τ (x)) · cd (x, p)
• and the required number of visits is
v =(1 + τ (x)) · cd (x, p)
q(x)
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TIGHTNESS & AGGREGATE DEMAND
consumption c
cd(x, p) =
✓�
1 + ⌧(x)
◆✏
· µ
p
prod
uct m
arke
t tig
htne
ss x
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EQUILIBRIUM
• price p + tightness x equilibrate supply and demand:
cs(x) = cd (x, p)
• the matching equilibrium is richer than the Walrasianequilibrium—where only price equilibrates supply and demand
– can describe “Walrasian situations” where price responds toshocks and tightness is constant
– but can also describe “Keynesian situations” where price isconstant and tightness responds to shocks
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PRICE MECHANISM
• we need a price mechanism to completely describe theequilibrium
• here we consider two polar cases:
– fixed price [Barro & Grossman 1971]– competitive price [Moen 1997]
• in the paper we also consider:
– bargaining (typical in the matching literature)– partially rigid price [Blanchard & Gali 2010]
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COMPARATIVE STATICS
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INCREASE IN AD WITH FIXED PRICE (χ ↑ )
AS
AD
capacityoutput
equilibrium
prod
uct m
arke
t tig
htne
ss
quantity
x
c y k
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INCREASE IN AD WITH FIXED PRICE (χ ↑ )
AS
AD
capacityoutputpr
oduc
t mar
ket t
ight
ness
quantity
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INCREASE IN AS WITH FIXED PRICE (k ↑ )
AD
AScapacityoutput
prod
uct m
arke
t tig
htne
ss
quantity
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COMPARATIVE STATICS WITH FIXED PRICE
output tightnessincrease in: y x
aggregate demand χ + +aggregate supply k + −
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EFFICIENT EQUILIBRIUM: CONSUMPTION IS MAXIMUM
c*
x*
AS
AD
consumption
efficient equilibrium: price is competitive
prod
uct m
arke
t tig
htne
ss
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SLACK EQUILIBRIUM: CONSUMPTION IS TOO LOW
c*
x*
AS
AD
slack equilibrium: price is too high
prod
uct m
arke
t tig
htne
ss
consumption
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TIGHT EQUILIBRIUM: CONSUMPTION IS TOO LOW
AS
AD
tight equilibrium: price is too low
prod
uct m
arke
t tig
htne
ss
consumptionc*
x*
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COMPARATIVE STATICS WITH COMPETITIVE PRICE
output tightnessincrease in: y x
aggregate demand χ 0 0aggregate supply k + 0
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COMPLETE MODEL: PRODUCT MARKET &LABOR MARKET
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LABOR MARKET & UNEMPLOYMENT
recruiters
labor force hemployment llabor supply ns(θ)
workers
labo
r mar
ket t
ight
ness
θ
producers unemployment
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FIRMS
• workers are hired on matching labor market
• production is sold on matching product market
• firms employ producers and recruiters
– number of recruiters = τ̂ (θ) × producers– number of employees = [1 + τ̂ (θ)] × producers
• take real wagew and tightnesses x and θ as given
• choose number of producers n to maximize profits
f (x)︸︷︷︸selling probability
· a · nα︸︷︷︸production
− [1 + τ̂ (θ)] · w · n︸ ︷︷ ︸wage of producers + recruiters
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LABOR DEMAND
• optimal employment decision:
f (x)︸︷︷︸selling probability
· α · a · nα−1︸ ︷︷ ︸MPL
= (1 + τ̂ (θ)︸︷︷︸matching wedge
) · w︸︷︷︸real wage
• same as Walrasian first-order condition, except for sellingprobability < 1 and matching wedge > 0
• labor demand gives the desired number of producers:
nd (θ, x,w) =[f (x) · a · α(1 + τ̂ (θ)) · w
] 11−α
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PARTIAL EQUILIBRIUM ON LABOR MARKET
labor forceemployment
workers
labo
r mar
ket t
ight
ness
labor demand
labor supply
partial equilibrium
θ
n l h
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GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM
• prices (p,w) and tightnesses (x, θ) equilibrate supply anddemand on product and labor markets:{
cs(x, θ) = cd (x, p)ns(θ) = nd (θ, x,w)
• need to specify price and wage mechanisms
– fixed price and fixed wage– competitive price and competitive wage
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EFFECT OF AD WITH FIXED PRICES
AS
ADprod
uct m
arke
t tig
htne
ss x
AD increases so x increases: it is easier for firms to sell
quantity
capacityoutput
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EFFECT OF AD WITH FIXED PRICES
labor forceemployment
workers
labo
r mar
ket t
ight
ness
θ
LD
LSx increases so LD and θ
increase: unemployment falls
unemployment
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EFFECT OF AD WITH FIXED PRICES
ASpossible feedback: as employment changes,
capacity and thus x may adjust, dampening or amplifying the initial change in x
AD
quantity
capacityoutput
prod
uct m
arke
t tig
htne
ss x
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KEYNESIAN, CLASSICAL, & FRICTIONAL
UNEMPLOYMENT
• equilibrium unemployment rate:
u = 1 − 1h·(f (x) · a · α
w
) 11−α·(
11 + τ̂ (θ)
) α1−α
• if f (x) = 1,w = aαhα−1, and τ̂ (θ) = 0, then u = 0
• the factors of unemployment therefore are
– Keynesian factor: f (x) < 1– classical factor: w > a · α · hα−1
– frictional factor: τ̂ (θ) > 0
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COMPARATIVE STATICS WITH FIXED PRICES
product laboroutput tightness employment tightness
increase in: y x l θ
aggregate demand χ + + + +technology a + − + +labor supply h + − + −
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COMPARATIVE STATICS WITH FIXED PRICES
product laboroutput tightness employment tightness
increase in: y x l θ
aggregate demand χ + + + +technology a + − + +labor supply k + − + −
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COMPARATIVE STATICS WITH COMPETITIVE PRICES
product laboroutput tightness employment tightness
increase in: y x l θ
aggregate demand χ 0 0 0 0technology a + 0 0 0labor supply k + 0 + 0
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RIGID OR FLEXIBLE PRICES?
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x CONSTRUCTED FROM CAPACITY UTILIZATION IN SPC
1980 1990 2000 201055%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%Cap
acity
utiliza
tion
when utilization is low, it is hard to sell production, which indicates that
product market tightness x is low
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FLUCTUATIONS IN x⇒ RIGID PRICE
1980 1990 2000 2010−0.16
−0.12
−0.08
−0.04
0
0.04
0.08
proxy for cyclical component of x
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FLUCTUATIONS IN θ⇒ RIGID REAL WAGE
1980 1990 2000 2010−0.75
−0.5
−0.25
0
0.25
0.5
cyclical component of θ
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LABOR DEMANDOR LABOR SUPPLY SHOCKS?
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LABOR DEMAND & LABOR SUPPLY SHOCKS
• source of labor demand shocks:
– aggregate demand χ
– technology a
• source of labor supply shocks:
– labor-force participation h– h can also be interpreted as job-search effort
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PREDICTED EFFECTS OF SHOCKS
• labor supply shocks:
– negative correlation between employment (l) and labormarket tightness (θ)
• labor demand shocks:
– positive correlation between employment (l) and labormarket tightness (θ)
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corr(l, θ) > 0⇒ LABOR DEMAND
−0.8
−0.4
0
0.4
0.8
1980 1990 2000 2010 −0.04
−0.02
0
0.02
0.04cyclical component of θ
cyclical component of l
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CROSS-CORRELOGRAM: θ (LEADING) & l
−4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4−0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Lags (quarters)
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AGGREGATE DEMANDOR TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS?
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PREDICTED EFFECTS OF SHOCKS
• aggregate demand shocks:
– positive correlation between output (y) and product markettightness (x)
• technology shocks:
– negative correlation between output (y) and productmarket tightness (x)
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corr(y, x) > 0⇒ AD
−0.16
−0.08
0
0.08
1980 1990 2000 2010 −0.1
−0.05
0
0.05
cyclical component of x
cyclical component of y
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CROSS-CORRELOGRAM: x (LEADING) & y
−4 −3 −2 −1 0 1 2 3 4−0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Lags (quarters)
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CONCLUSION
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SUMMARY
• we develop a tractable, general-equilibrium model ofunemployment fluctuations
• we construct empirical series for
– product market tightness– labor market tightness
• we find that unemployment fluctuations stem from
– price rigidity and real-wage rigidity– aggregate demand shocks
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APPLICATIONS OF THE MODEL TO POLICY
• optimal unemployment insurance
– Landais, Michaillat, & Saez [2018]
• optimal public expenditure
– Michaillat & Saez [2019]
• optimal monetary policy
– Michaillat & Saez [2021]