presentation 11 5a caruzzo etal analysis of the use …...presentation_11_5a_caruzzo_etal_analysis...
TRANSCRIPT
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16th Conference on Aviation, Range, and Aerospace Meteorology – ARAM
ANALYSIS OF THE USE OF AEROSPACE METEOROLOGY IN THE BRAZILIAN SPACE
PROGRAM
Amaury Caruzzo*; Mischel Carmen Neyra Belderrain; Gilberto Fisch
*PhD student at the Technological Institute of Aeronautics (ITA) – Brazil
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PLAN OF TALK
2
� Overview
� Introduction
� The Brazilian Space Program
� Materials and Methods
� Discussion
� Conclusion
� Future works
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OVERVIEW – MOTIVATION
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� The Brazilian Space Program is being restructured among different institutions
� Possibility of launching a liquid-propelled satellite launch vehicle from Brazil
� International launches with a Brazilian sounding rocket (VSB-30)
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INTRODUCTION
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� In launching aerospace vehicles, the weather and environmental conditions are crucial → “Aerospace Meteorology”
� Relationship: weather risk ↔ decision analysis (with Brazilian parameters)
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INTRODUCTION
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� Systemic view:
� operational procedures have to be mapped
� limiting weather factors have to be identified
� the infrastructure at the launch centers has to be analyzed (and among many other aspects)
� GOAL: use mapping and application AM in the Brazilian Space Program
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BRAZILIAN SPACE PROGRAM
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� Brazilian Space Program (PEB) began operating in 1965 with the launch of the first sounding rocket from Brazil
� In the late 1970s the Brazilian government defined three main goals for the PEB: to launch a satellite with a rocket, both made in Brazil, from a Brazilian launch center
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BRAZILIAN SPACE PROGRAM
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� R&D at the PEB: Institute of Aeronautics and Space (IAE), and the National Institute for Space Research (INPE)
� Operational: Barreira do Inferno Launch Center (CLBI) andAlcantara LaunchCenter (CLA)
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BRAZILIAN SPACE PROGRAM
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MATERIALS AND METHODS
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� 13 interviews with different stakeholders in the PEB – into three groups:
� “meteorologists” and atmospheric scientists (5 interviews)
� “direct users” of weather information (5
interviews)
� “top decision makers”, directors and chief of general operations (3 interviews)
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MATERIALS AND METHODS
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� Problem Structuring Method (PSM) was used to analyze the interviews (Strategic Options Development and Analysis – SODA):
� uses cognitive map techniques
� build a map that incorporates the goals for each stakeholder involved in decision making
� bipolar construct design
� constructs are identified (viewpoints) and the relationship with the decision-making process
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RESULTS
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� Current situation of the use of AM during launch operations for aerospace vehicles in Brazil
� Encouraged to indicate what points should be improved – (identified 5 clusters):
� gray: related to senior management of PEB
� yellow: infrastructure in the launch centers
� blue: technical staff and crew
� orange: general procedures
� white: operational/ strategic vision
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RESULTS
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� SODA map of the "top decision makers” group
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DISCUSSION
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� Possible to identify several of the same aspects among the three groups
� AM is not used as an effective tool for decision making in the launching of aerospace vehicles (weather forecast does not change the mission schedule)
� Increased risk perception of space activity and importance of the end customer (after VLS-1 accident and international launches with a Brazilian sounding rocket)
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CONCLUSION
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� Last 10 years: new paradigm, problems not considered before (e.g recently purchased for the CLA: Weather Radar and Wind Profile)
� Strategic options identified:
� Improve infrastructure/ keep equipment operating
� Make a specific weather forecast for each type of mission and aerospace vehicle
� Research in risk and decision analysis in AM
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CONCLUSION
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� Future works:
� Increase the number of respondents/ interviews
� Review SODA maps among all respondents
� Identify best practices and potential improvements for the development of AM in Brazil
� Draw up risk analysis and evaluate environmental factors limiting
� Parameterize a Decision Support System (DSS) using Aerospace Meteorology
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!
Questions or suggestions?
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Meteorologist AMAURY CARUZZO
PhD student – Aeronautical & Mechanical Engineering (ITA)
Tel: +55 (12) 3947-4574
E-mail: [email protected] / [email protected]