presentación de powerpoint · source: dane. seasonally adjusted 10,0 11,2 5,4 11,2 10,7 11,6 7,2...
TRANSCRIPT
Colombia 2020Ana Fernanda MaiguashcaJanuary 2020
1* The opinions presented here are personal and do not represent the official position of the Banco de la República or its Board of Directors.
20/0
1/20
20
2
Co
nte
nts
Growth
Inflation and Policy Responses
External Balance
Risks
• The decade begins after five years of below historic growth adjusting after the terms-of-trade shock.
3
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Last 30 years Last 20 years Last 10 years Last 5 years
Average Annual GDP Growth Rate in Latin America
Argentina Brazil Chile Colombia Ecuador Mexico Paraguay Peru Uruguay
Source: International Monetary Fund. Banrep's calculations. Includes 2019 forecasts.
• The ToT shock is the common denominator for the region.
• The Colombian economy adjusted successfully despite facing a larger shock relative to other countries.
Source: Banco de la República and IMF Regional Economic Outlook April 2017. *Peak and trough are defined using annual data for 2010-2016. For ToT the peak to trough are defined using annual data for Bol, Col, and Ven correspond to 2012 to 2016; for Ecu and Per to 2011 to 2016; for Bra to 2011 to 2015; for Chl to 2010 to 2016; for Arg to 2014 to 2015; and for Mex to 2013 to 2015. For the graph on the right: bars with pattern denote country with a managed exchange rate regime.
4
Terms-of-Trade Movements 2010-2015*(Peak to trough, percent change)
• Timing seems to have been slightly different: Colombia moving later than the rest of the region.
• Internal demand and consumption in Colombia has recovered strongly after the adjustment.
Source: Central Banks. For Chile, households consumption includes NPISH.5
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%Internal Demand
(Real Annual Growth Rate)
Peru Colombia
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Household Consumption(Real Annual Growth Rate)
Peru Colombia
Source: Banco de la República and Consensus forecast. Analysts forecasts are the median of consensus forecasts individual predictions.6
• Forecasts suggest that dynamism will continue through 2020, amidst an uncertain global environment.
3,10%3,20%
3,30%
2,0%
1,4%
2,7%
3,2% 3,3%
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
3,0%
3,5%
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Growth Forecasts
Analysts forecasts
BanRep's forecasts
Observed growth
7
• Growth is responding to a dynamic domestic demand.
• Central Bank estimates a growth rate of 3.2% for 2019 and forecasts 3.3% in 2020.
Source: DANE and Banco de la República.
4,8%
3,3%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
GDP and Domestic Demand(Annual Growth Rate)
Domestic Demand GDP
8
• Investment remains strong, except for the housing sector; machinery and equipment is growing significantly. Some deceleration is expected for 2020 but other components should pick up.
8,6
%
7,0
%
-3,8
%
6,6
% 11
,1%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%Investment and its Components
(Annual Growth Rate)
2017Q4 2019Q3
GKF INVESTMENT
HOUSING
OTHER BUILDINGS
MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT
Source: DANE. Calculations by Banco de la República
5,02%
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Co
nsu
mer
co
nfi
den
ce I
nd
ex
%
Consumption and Consumer Confidence
Household Consumption (AnnualGrowth Rate)Consumer Confidence Index (RHS)
Decoupling
Source: DANE and Fedesarrollo
• Consumption is growing at a fast rate, though a disconnection with consumer sentiment persists.
• A strong growth of consumer loans is supporting household consumption.
Source: Financial Superintendence and Banco de la República
10
4.4%
0.08%
6.4%
11.6%
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
13
15
Jan
-16
Mar
-16
May
-16
Jul-
16
Sep
-16
No
v-1
6
Jan
-17
Mar
-17
May
-17
Jul-
17
Sep
-17
No
v-1
7
Jan
-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-
18
Sep
-18
No
v-1
8
Jan
-19
Mar
-19
May
-19
Jul-
19
Sep
-19
No
v-1
9
%Loan Portfolio
(Real Annual Growth Rate)TotalCommercialMortgageConsumption
Source: DANE. Seasonally adjusted
10,0
11,2
5,4
11,210,7
11,6
7,2
11,3
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
National Total Urban Centers Rural Areas 13 Main MetropolitanAreas
%
Unemployment Rate(Quarterly moving average Sep-Nov)
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
• The labor market has been showing weakness that contrasts with the dynamics of internal demand. Unemployment rate has increased compared to previous years. The increment is most noticeable in rural areas. It is difficult to assess the migration effect, given the scale of this phenomenon.
20/0
1/20
20
12
Co
nte
nts
Growth
Inflation and Policy Responses
External Balance
Risks
• In a decelerating scenario for the global economy, the growth of Colombia’s trading partners is expected to slow down.
¹ USA, Euro area, China, Brazil, Ecuador, Peru, México, Chile. Weighted by non-traditional exports.
*Forecast. Source: Banco de la República and Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadística – DANE. 13
2.2%2,1%
2,4% 1,5% 1,7% 1,8%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019* 2020* 2021*
Average Growth of Colombia’s Main Trading Partners and Exports Growth
Mar. 19 forecast Current forecast Growth of Non-traditional exports* (RHS)
• The rebound in domestic demand plus a weaker external demand is causing a widening of the current account deficit.
Source: IMF (WEO) estimates. For Colombia: BanRep’s estimates.
14
-3,3%-3,9%
-4,5% -4,6%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019(forecast)
2020 (forecast)
Current Account(% of GDP)
Mexico Chile Peru Colombia
Source: Banco de la República
• However, consumption goods represent only a small fraction of total imports, rendering a “productive” CAD.
15
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000U
SD M
illio
n
Imports
Capital Goods Intermediate Goods Consumption Goods
• Which has been mostly financed by FDI, mitigating part of the vulnerability of the large CAD.
Source: Banco de la República. 16
-1
1
3
5
7
9
11
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (jan -sep)
% o
f G
DP
Investment Flows and Current Account Deficit Foreign Direct Investment GrossInflows
Portfolio Investment GrossInflows
Other Investment Gross Inflows
Current Account Deficit
• Trade balance and factor income explain the current account deficit, partially offset by the net income of current transfers. Factor income has already proved to move countercyclically.
Source: Banco de la República. 17
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
-30.000
-25.000
-20.000
-15.000
-10.000
-5.000
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
Cu
rren
t A
cco
un
t -
% o
f G
DP
USD
mill
ion
Current Account
Goods and services Primary Income (Factor income) Secondary Income (Transfers) Current Account (% GDP) (RHS)
Source: Banco de la República
18
$ 1.500
$ 1.700
$ 1.900
$ 2.100
$ 2.300
$ 2.500
$ 2.700
$ 2.900
$ 3.100
$ 3.300
$ 3.500
Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20
USD/COP Exchange Rate
• A floating exchange rate is a crucial piece of the policy framework.
• Currency mismatches remain low in both the real and financial sector, and they concentrate in companies that either export, hedge or have FDI
19*For the categories: debt due to suppliers in foreign currency, foreign currency leasing and “other”, the information is insufficient to determine if firms hedge these debts.
Source: Banco de la República, Financial Superintendency and DANE
32,11
4,40
3,27
1,11
1,642,21
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 jun-19
Debt of the corporate sector by currency and hedge(% of GDP)
Local Currency Debt Exporters Debt
Non-exporters Debt with FDI Non-exporters Debt with FDI (Unhedged)
External suppliers in foreign currency External Leasing in foreign currency
Other
20/0
1/20
20
20
Co
nte
nts
Growth
Inflation and Policy Responses
External Balance
Risks
• Inflation expectations are close to the 3% target over the policy horizon. • Central Bank estimates convergence to target by December 2020.
Source: DANE and Banco de la República – Monthly Survey of Economic Expectations21
3,36%
3,25%
3,80%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jan-17 Jun-17 Nov-17 Apr-18 Sep-18 Feb-19 Jul-19 Dec-19
Inflation and Inflation Expectations
Average of 1-year Ahead Expectations
Average of 2-year Ahead Expectations
Headline Inflation
Source: DANE. Calculations by Banco de la República
• There was a temporary shock to food inflation throughout 2019, that started to fade.
22
5,2%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jan-17 Jun-17 Nov-17 Apr-18 Sep-18 Feb-19 Jul-19 Dec-19
Food Inflation
Source: DANE. Calculations by Banco de la República
• Although passthrough is low, there was some impact of depreciation in tradable and headline inflation.
23
3,1%
2,2%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jan-17 Jun-17 Nov-17 Apr-18 Sep-18 Feb-19 Jul-19 Dec-19
Tradable inflation
Tradables
Tradables excluding food and regulateditems
Source: DANE. Calculations by Banco de la República
• Non tradable inflation fell during H2 2019 reflecting few structural pressures in the inflationary process.
24
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jan-17 Jun-17 Nov-17 Apr-18 Sep-18 Feb-19 Jul-19 Dec-19
Non-tradable inflation
Non-tradable
Non-tradable excluding food andregulating items
Source: DANE. Calculations by Banco de la República. The “Core 20” inflation measure excludes the CPI components with the largest price volatility representing 20% of the CPI basket.
• Core inflation indicators reflected too a temporary shock, most probably affected by exchange rate, though it was a small deviation.
25
3,4%
3,4%
3,5%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Dec-14 May-15 Oct-15 Mar-16 Aug-16 Jan-17 Jun-17 Nov-17 Apr-18 Sep-18 Feb-19 Jul-19 Dec-19
Core Inflation
CPI Excluding food
Core 20
Source: Banco de la República.
26
• In this scenario monetary policy has remained moderately expansionary, supporting the closing of the negative output gap.
Source: Banco de la República. * Observed real interest rate minus an estimate.
4,50%
7,75%
4,25%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun
-15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Sep
-17
Dec
-17
Mar
-18
Jun
-18
Sep
-18
Dec
-18
Mar
-19
Jun
-19
Sep
-19
Dec
-19
Policy Rate
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
20
14
Q1
20
14
Q2
20
14
Q3
20
14
Q4
20
15
Q1
20
15
Q2
20
15
Q3
20
15
Q4
20
16
Q1
20
16
Q2
20
16
Q3
20
16
Q4
20
17
Q1
20
17
Q2
20
17
Q3
20
17
Q4
20
18
Q1
20
18
Q2
20
18
Q3
20
18
Q4
20
19
Q1
20
19
Q2
20
19
Q3
20
19
Q4
Real interest rate gap
20/0
1/20
20
27
Co
nte
nts
Growth
Inflation and Policy Responses
External Balance
Risks
28
Global Uncertainty
New Normal
Trade
Discontent
MPNeutral Interest
RateCAD
29
Thank you