preparing for the election cycle in nigeria: corruption and intimidation
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UNLocK Update Report 10 August-November 2010TRANSCRIPT
Preparing for the Election Cycle in Nigeria:
Corruption and Intimidation
UNLocK Update Report 10 August-November 2010
UNLOCK | THE FUND FOR PEACE
Produced with the assistance of The Institute of Human Rights and Humanitarian Law
Copyright © 2011 The Fund for Peace All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent from The Fund for Peace. The Fund for Peace 1720 I Street NW 7th Floor Washington, D.C. 20006 T: +1 202 223 7940 F: +1 202 223 7947 www.fundforpeace.org The Fund for Peace Publication CR-11-09-UL (11-04C) Circulation: PUBLIC
and perspectives from populations in conflict-affected
zones into CAST, the FfP’s conflict assessment early
warning methodology. The project, the Early Warning
and State Building Initiative, is made possible with
funding from Carnegie Corporation of New York,
Humanity United, and National Endowment for
Democracy. The statements made and views expressed
are solely the responsibility of The Fund for Peace.
T his report was compiled by Jumoke Balogun and Jenna Torosian, under
the supervision of Nate Haken, Senior Associate at The Fund for Peace.
It is the second in a series that is part of a pilot project to integrate data
Preparing for the Election Cycle: Corruption and Intimidation 5 Analysis by Select Indicators 7 State-level Analysis 14 Looking Ahead 17 About The Fund for Peace 19
www.fundforpeace.org 3 The Fund for Peace
Contents
Nigeria early warning network, with a particular focus
on the state and local levels in the Niger Delta region.
According to these incident reports, candidates
reportedly engaged in intimidation against their
opponents. Candidates and their family member were
kidnapped or killed. Criminal and vigilante elements
were reportedly co-opted or recruited for political
reasons. Officials were accused of corruption. The
government’s rebel amnesty program continued to
falter due in part to ambiguity and controversy over
who is eligible to participate. Floods destroyed homes
and poverty.
This report provides an overview of the pressures at
the local level as reported during this four-month
period. These issues should be monitored and
addressed to reduce pressures which could lead to
violence during the April presidential election.
A Focus on Bayelsa and Abia States
Bayelsa and Abia are both located in the oil-rich Niger
Delta. They face similar issues, such as armed militant
groups and government corruption. Pages 15 and 16
provide a deeper analysis of those two states.
Pages 4 through 8 summarize the reports by indicator
with geographic visualizations of where pressures
were reported.
Findings
This is the second summary report for UnLock Nigeria.
The report covers four months (August 1 to November
30, 2010) of field reports from participating civil society
organizations.
D uring the period covered by this report (August-November 2010) the
election season was getting under way. This report compiles the
incidents and issues documented by civil society in the UNLocK
www.fundforpeace.org 5 The Fund for Peace
Preparing for the Election Cycle: Corruption and Intimidation
Economy
Demographic Pressures
Human Flight/Brain Drain
Refugees or Displaced Persons
Group Grievance
Uneven Development
Legitimacy of the State
Public Services
Human Rights
Security Apparatus
Factionalized Elites
External Intervention
Social
Political
Economic
The Indicators
The 12 CAST indicators for which data is sought
include social, economic, and political/military
pressures on the state:
Broken down by indicator and state, there were 224
reports logged during this period. Of the 12 CAST
indicators (see page 6 for a description of the
indicators), issues relation to Security Apparatus were
the most prominent (57 reports), followed by State
Legitimacy (39 reports), Human Rights (36 reports),
Factionalized Elites (26 reports), Public Services (21
reports), Economic Pressures (18 reports), Group
Grievance (13 reports), Demographic Pressures (9
reports), Human Flight (3 reports), and Refugees/IDPs
(2 reports).
Geographically, most of the reports came from the
South-South region (158 reports) followed by the South
-East (36 reports), South-West (5 reports), Federal
Capital (5 reports), North-Central (2 reports), and
North-West (1 report). There were 15 reports that dealt
with the country as a whole.
The distribution of reports reflects the geographical
spread of the participating organizations, most of
which are based in the South-South. Many of them are
human rights and civil rights organizations, which
influences the types of reports that they send. Thus,
this summary provides a rich description of the
environment over the last four months, as seen by civil
society focused in the Niger Delta region.
Methodology
In May 2010, The Fund for Peace conducted a training
workshop in conflict early warning, based on our
conflict assessment methodology (CAST). Participants
included a broad range of civil society representatives
in Nigeria, the goals being to enable them to recognize
potential danger signs, document events, gather data
from across the country and communicate it to each
other and the FfP for processing and analysis. This
information is to be used both for helping people get
out of harm’s way in the short term, as well as for
developing conflict-sensitive approaches to
development and policy in the long term. Since the
UNLocK early warning system was established, over
431 reports (broken out by indicator and state) have
been entered into the database as of this writing. The
data generated by the participants has been saved on a
password-protected website, accessible by the
participants for their own analysis and for the
corroboration of details to ensure accuracy.
Election Security and Stability
www.fundforpeace.org 6 The Fund for Peace
Number of Reports by Indicator
60
40
20
0
Demographic Pressures
Refugees and ID
Ps
Group Grie
vance
Human Flight a
nd Brain Drain
Uneven Economic Development
Economic Pressures
State Legitim
acy
Public Services
Human Rights and Rule of Law
Security
Apparatus
Factio
nalized Elite
s
External In
terventio
n
www.fundforpeace.org 7 The Fund for Peace
Analysis by Select Indicators
Analysis by Select Indicators
Reported Refugees or Internally-Displaced Persons
Issues relating to refugees and IDPs were not
emphasized in this period. However, there were a few
reports of displacement highlighting the lack of public
services and insecurity in some parts of the country.
• Several communities were displaced due to flooding
in Bayelsa (State 6)
• Ethnic grievances between the Nsadop and Boje
communities in Cross Rivers (State 9), reportedly
caused the displacement of thousands, many of
whom fled to Ikom LGA.
Reported Demographic Pressures
In the previous period (April-July 2010) environmental
degradation was the dominant issue in this indicator.
This period natural disasters were reported more
frequently, especially flooding associated with the
rainy season as well as poor infrastructure to deal with
such disasters. As reported by civil society, flooding
devastated several communities in the South-South
region:
• Communities in several LGAs in Bayelsa (State 6),
including Kolokuma-Opokuma, Sagbama, and
Southern Ijaw, were reportedly completely
submerged due to massive flooding.
• It was estimated that N100 billion was needed to
address the problems of erosion and flooding in the
Oredo LGA in Edo (State 12)
• In Akwa Ibom (State 3), flooding led to loss of lives
and property.
• Unrelated to flooding, uncoordinated efforts by the
national and the Abia state government (State 1) to
curb environmental degradation led to a dispute
between the newly formed Abia State
Environmental Protection Agency (ASEPA) and the
federal Ministry of Environment.
• Participants highlighted the lack of enforceable
legislation on environmental pollution in Delta
(State 10).
12
10
6 32
1
3
6
9
Nigeria
Nigeria
www.fundforpeace.org 8 The Fund for Peace
Analysis by Select Indicators
Reported Human Flight
It was reported that insecurity due to kidnappings,
militancy, and gang violence, as well as the general
lack of economic opportunity have motivated the
skilled and educated to leave some areas, putting a
strain on human capital, particularly in the South East:
Abia (State 1) and Anambra (State 4).
Reported Group Grievance
According to reports from UNLock participants, ethnic
tension in the South South and South East was an issue
that led to violence on several occasions.
• There was tension reported in Akuku Toru LGA in
Rivers (State 32). Several chiefs demanded that the
Kula Amayanabo be dethroned by the state
governor for allegedly withholding Chevron-
sponsored scholarship money, importing weapons,
mobilizing youths, and intimidation. Some have
threatened violence if the issue is not resolved.
• The Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People
(MOSOP) in Rivers (State 32) alleged that the federal
government is mismanaging the amnesty program
for militants.
• Intra-communal violence in the Ataba community in
the Andoni LGA in Rivers (State 32) left several
dead.
• In Port Harcourt LGA, Rivers (State 32) Bundu
Indigenes sued the federal government for
destroying their waterfront settlements in 2009.
• An ethnic clash in Boki, Cross Rivers (State 9)
between the Nsadop and Boje communities killed
several people.
• In Gokana, Rivers (State 32), several were reportedly
killed, and several houses and cars were burned by
youths from different communities after a conflict
was sparked by a missing cell phone. It was
reported that there had been a land dispute between
the two groups prior to the incident.
9
10
6 32
1
3
1
4
Nigeria
Nigeria
www.fundforpeace.org 9 The Fund for Peace
Analysis by Select Indicators
Reported Pressures on State Legitimacy
Accusations of police, government, and military
impunity and corruption made this the second most
reported indicator this period. These issues not only
undermine government legitimacy, but also stifle
economic growth.
• The former chairman of the Nigeria Football
Federation (NFF) and three others were indicted for
mismanaging the N900 million World Cup budget.
• There were reports of government corruption in
Cross River (State 9), Delta (State 10) and Rivers
(State 32).
• Andoni local government chairwoman was
impeached for breach of security and misconduct in
Rivers (State 32).
• Allegations of police impunity, corruption, and
brutality were reported in several Rivers (State 32)
LGAs (Gokana, Port Harcourt, Emohua, Khana).
• Protests and riots were reported in Edo (State 12),
Plateau (State 31) and Rivers (State 32), and Abuja
(State 37).
• There have been strikes at state universities in the
South-South and South-East region after the state
government refused to pay the amount for wages
requested by the federal government.
• Disputed elections and impeachments have caused
confusion in Delta (State 10) and Bayelsa (State 6)
• Accusations of military impunity were reported in
Gokana, Rivers (State 32)
Reported Economic Decline
During this period, youth unemployment was the
main issue reported within this indicator. In Aba
South LGA, Abia (State 1) gangs and militants laid
siege to the commercial city. As people fled the city
and banks closed, traders called for a state of
emergency and President Goodluck Jonathan sent
federal troops to the city to curb the violence which
affected the supply of goods to the rest of the country.
• The recent upsurge in kidnapping cases in the South
South reportedly led to the migration of prominent
men and businesses and adversely affected local
economies.
• UNLock civil society members also reported that
unemployed youths in several other states,
including Delta (State 10) have resorted to violent
crimes, and abductions for ransom.
24
10
6
1
3
12
10
6 32
14
9
37
31
Nigeria
Nigeria
www.fundforpeace.org 10 The Fund for Peace
Analysis by Select Indicators
Reported Human Rights Violations
Several high profile murders highlight the
vulnerability of public officials and their families.
Several cases, including the murders of the Head of a
unit at the Economic and Financial Crimes
Commission (Kaduna—State 18), a political aspirant
(Imo—State 16), a state commissioner (Bayelsa—State
6), a prominent doctor (Abia—State 1), a PDP chieftain
(Rivers—State 32), chairman of the PDP (Akwa
Ibom—State 3) and an activist (Lagos—State 24) are
troubling indicators that political disputes are
frequently solved through violent means.
• Public officials are not the only victims of violence.
Three men were murdered in Port Harcourt, Rivers
(State 32)
• Instances of gender-based violence, including a case
of child molestation, were reported in Eleme and
Gokana LGAs in Rivers (State 32) and in Aba South
LGA in Abia (State 1)
• Vigilante justice was also reported in the child
molestation case in Rivers (State 32)
• The father of a newspaper assistant editor was
kidnapped in Ekiti (State 13).
• Further, several school children were abducted in
Abia and some foreign nationals were also
abducted.
• Several cases of police extortion were reported in
Rivers and Bayelsa (State 6). The Joint Task Force
(JTF) was also implicated in extortion schemes with
commercial drivers being the major target.
Reported Pressures on Public Services
Reports from UNLock participants suggest that
inadequate policing presents a major challenge to
sustainable security. There were also several reports
on inadequacies in the transportation, health, and
education systems.
• Police in Rivers (State 32) were accused of hasty
accusations in the murder of the former militant
leader Soboma George.
• Several bus drivers have reportedly been killed
during robberies on the road between Abia (State 1)
and Rivers.
• In Rivers, Primary Health Care Centers in the Port
Harcourt area were abandoned due inadequate
government leadership.
• Over the past decade in Cross River (State 9),
unfinished road projects have cost about N150
billion and have resulted in accusations of
embezzlement.
• Port Harcourt International Airport in Rivers
reportedly does not meet international safety
standards.
16
6 32
1 9
37
30
Nigeria
13
24
6 32
16 1
37
18
Nigeria
www.fundforpeace.org 11 The Fund for Peace
Analysis by Select Indicators
Reports on Security Apparatus
Security Apparatus issues were the most reported by
UNLock participants. Incidents related to problems
with non-state armed militias, government security
forces, and organized crime. The security crisis in the
country was highlighted by the Independence Day
bombings in the Federal Capital Territory (State 37),
where MEND militants detonated bombs near the
ceremonial site during the country's 50th anniversary.
Although an amnesty deal between militants in the
Niger Delta and the government was announced just a
year ago, UNLocK participants reported that militants
are believed to have started re-arming due to failed
amnesty promises. Coupled with inadequate
government policies, a general lack of confidence in
the justice system, and an impending election in April,
the situation has the potential to deteriorate further.
• In Delta (State 10), Bayelsa (State 6), and Rivers (State
32), ex-militants continue to protest the failing
amnesty programs.
• MEND, the Movement for the Emancipation of the
Niger Delta, issued press statements after the
independence day bombing that threatened state and
oil facilities.
• An attack on an oil facility was reported in Bayelsa
(State 6).
• Kidnappings of school children, government
officials, political aspirants, educators. Businessmen,
and foreign officials were reported in Abia (State 1),
Akwa Ibom (State 3), Anambra (State 4), and Rivers
(State 32).
• The issue of arms proliferation was reported in
several states- Lagos (State 24), Rivers (State 32), and
Borno (State 8). Tens of thousands of weapons were
intercepted by government officials. Further, it was
reported by UNLocK civil society members that
MEND was believed to be rearming in Bayelsa (State
6)
• A resurgence of militancy in the Niger Delta has also
led to violent crackdown on militants by the Joint
Task Force (JTF) in Delta (State 10) and Bayelsa (State
6).
• Reports indicate that police impunity continues to be
a problem. Police corruption and impunity were
reported in Akwa Ibom (State 3), Bayelsa (State 6),
Delta (State 10), Edo (State 12), and Rivers (State 32).
Allegations include unlawful arrests, unprovoked
violent outburst, and bribery.
• The vigilante group, the “Bakassi Boys” formed in
Abia (State 1) have reportedly carried out several
instances of vigilante justice. Vigilante justice was
also reported in Anambra (State 4).
• In Delta (State 10), Rivers (State 32), and Bayelsa
(State 6), state-sponsored militia activities were
reported.
24
10
6 32
4
16
37
8
1
3 Nigeria
www.fundforpeace.org 12 The Fund for Peace
Reported Factionalized Elites
Kidnappings and abductions of public officials and
members of their families were reported the be a major
problem. Similar to the last period, factionalization at
all levels of government continues to undermine
political stability. Further, there are reports that several
prominent actors, in association with militants, are
instigating electoral violence before the April elections.
• In Akwa Ibom (State 3), the young son of a political
aspirant was kidnapped. Further, a university
professor and Gokana Local Government
chairmanship aspirant was found murdered in his
car in Rivers (State 32)
• Also in Akwa Ibom, this time in the Uyo LGA, the
brother of an important statesman was kidnapped.
The wife of a man vying for the governorship was
also kidnapped in Uyo.
• A dispute between the governor and deputy
governor in Bayelsa (State 6) continued to gridlock
state politics.
• The governorship was still undecided in Delta (State
10) and in Enugu (State 14), fractionalization at the
state level continued to hamper political
development
• 12 members of the PDP were arrested for unlawful
assembly and charged with cultism and illegal
possession of arms in Rivers.
• Political infighting within the Ogun (State 27)
legislature has reportedly led some lawmakers to go
into hiding.
• In Edo, the non-PDP governor believes that
corruption allegations by the PDP were politically
motivated.
Analysis by Select Indicators
27
10
6 32
14
16
13
12
3 Nigeria
www.fundforpeace.org 13 The Fund for Peace
Number of Reports by State
60
40
20
0
80
Abia
Akwa Ibom
All L
GAs
Anambra
Bayelsa
Borno
Cross River
Delta
Edo
Ekiti
Enugu
Federal C
apital Territo
ry
Imo
Kaduna
Lagos
Niger D
elta
Ogun
Oyo
Plateau
Rivers
www.fundforpeace.org 14 The Fund for Peace
State-Level Analysis
Sub-regional Analysis
Bayelsa State
Bayelsa, a state in the South-South region, located
between Delta and Rivers, is embroiled in political
disorder, related in part to organized crime and
militancy. Once governed by current President
Goodluck Jonathan, the affairs of the state are
currently in disarray with political leaders reportedly
resorting to violence against one another.
Political tension in the state goes back at least as far as
the 2007 gubernatorial race. In that election, PDP
candidate Timipre Sylva won the race, but was
challenged by his opponent Ebitimi Amgbare (Action
Congress). The Appeals Court unanimously nullified
the election and ordered a new one, which Sylva won
overwhelmingly in 2008. In 2010, several violent
events, targeted at public officials, point to a
particularly vitriolic political environment, one that
might be exacerbated in the lead-up to the 2011
election:
• After the impeachment of deputy-governor
Peremobowei Ebebi in June 2010, his residence was
bombed.
• In October, the Governor was booed and stoned by
ex-militants unhappy with the amnesty program.
(Yenagoa LGA 1)
• In November, a bomb went off at the premises
of Tim Alaibe’s country residence, in Opokuma
LGA 5, killing one police constable. Alaibe was the
chairman of the Niger Delta Development
Commission (NDDC) and running against Sylva in
the gubernatorial race. A police constable was killed
in the process.
• The Governor was reportedly paying "Bayelsa
Volunteers," a non-state armed group, to maintain
law and order.
The amnesty program initiated by late President
Yar’adua seemed promising in the beginning of the
year, but lack of oversight and the perception of
unfulfilled promises have reportedly led some to re-
arm. UNLock civil society members listed several
instances of instability in the state:
• Militants attacked an oil pipeline in Osiama
(Southern Ijaw LGA 3) and forced the oil company
to shut down the 60,000 bpd operation pending
investigation.
• The military action ordered by the federal
government against recent acts of terrorism and
resurgence of militancy in the Niger Delta led to a
raid of several militant camps (Yenagoa and
Southern Ijaw LGA 3)
Complicating matters in the state, and adding to the
frustration of the people, flooding in October left many
displaced and without adequate public services:
• Flooding from the River Nun completely submerged
communities. Schools and other community
institutions were also submerged and 5,000
inhabitants lost their lives in the deluge. (Kolokuma-
Opokuma LGA 5, Sagbama LGA 4, and Southern
Ijaw LGA 3)
Combined with reports of police and military
impunity, a resurging militancy, and a disorderly state
government which co-opts and recruits non-state
armed groups, Bayelsa is a state under great pressure.
Upcoming elections have heightened tension. Civil
society is very much concerned about the possibility of
election-related violence.
2
3
4 5
1
6
Bayelsa State
www.fundforpeace.org 15 The Fund for Peace
Sub-regional Analysis
Abia State
Abia is located between Rivers and Akwa Ibom States.
It has historically had problems with criminality, civil
strife, and violence. With oil deposits in the southern
part of the state, there has been tension over
compensation, environmental degradation, and
resource allocation for development and
infrastructure. In response to the insecurity the Joint
Task Force (JTF), a subdivision of the Nigerian Armed
Forces, has been deployed. In addition, the Bakassi
Boys, youth who are known for vigilante justice and
extrajudicial killings, have also been active in the state.
The period of August-November was difficult for
Abia. Security deteriorated, with rising criminality
and abductions, to the point that in September, a bus
was hijacked and 15 school children were abducted in
a single incident. As a result of the rising insecurity,
President Jonathan ordered a military offensive in
October.
Insecurity in Abia State reportedly caused people to
flee the area, both for safety and economic reasons.
Economic growth is very low in the state.
Unemployment is high. Kidnapping is common, and
hefty ransoms are demanded. It was reported that
often the victim is killed even after the ransom has
been received.
In the descriptions of incidents and issues below, most
of the reports dealing with insecurity and criminality
were associated with Aba South (LGA 1).
• The Bakassi Boys have reportedly been increasingly
active, including in the settlement of marital
quarrels and debt recovery. In the month prior to
this period, July, it was reported that the Bakassi
Boys killed five men who were accused of armed
robbery.
• A joint military task force was given orders to crack
down on the kidnapping in Abia State. It was
reported that armed personnel set criminal hideouts
and houses on fire. This issue was reported in Ukwa
West (LGA 2).
• In October, the security situation got so bad that the
President deployed thousands of soldiers to the
state. It was reported that the Bakassi boys worked
2
1
Abia State
www.fundforpeace.org 16 The Fund for Peace
for militants. In addition, vigilante groups have been
formed, sometimes in an attempt to provide security
and sometimes to further political aims. There have
also been efforts to address the economic side of the
instability, including foundations dedicated to
community development set up by oil companies.
As seen through a CAST lens, the social, economic,
security, and political drivers of conflict all need to be
addressed simultaneously. An integrated approach
such as that laid out by the recommendations of the
2008 Niger Delta Technical Committee Report, is
needed. A military approach without development
only aggravates the situation, and can further alienate
distrustful populations if the response is seen to be too
heavy handed or if the impact on civilians is too great.
Regarding the amnesty, ex-militants believe they have
been promised jobs training and allowances if they lay
down their guns. Aside from the difficulties of
identifying who is eligible for the allowance, and the
difficulties of ensuring that they receive it, allowances
cannot be distributed forever. That is not a long term
solution. If the economy is not producing jobs, the jobs
training becomes a formality they undergo so they can
collect their allowance. Eventually the allowances will
stop and ex-militants will go back to the creeks, which
some have already begun to do. Ultimately there
needs to be economic development for any of these
programs to work. However, without security,
development will not happen and vigilante groups fill
the gap with impunity.
These vigilante groups appear to have some popular
support, which emphasizes a troubling lack of
confidence in the security forces. Although these
parallel structures may fill a short term need, in the
long run, they contribute to an environment of
anarchy. State security forces need to do more to fulfill
the need for law and order by protecting civilians,
while minimizing the abuse and corruption that have
made them so distrusted in the first place.
Meanwhile, elections incentivize political actors to co-
opt or recruit armed groups from among the criminal
and vigilante elements. They do this because their
opponents are also doing it and because they believe
that if they do not do this, then they will surely lose, or
worse. Indeed, many aspiring candidates have been
abducted or assassinated in the last several months.
On the other hand, if they win the election, the
monetary benefits can be high. A lot of money moves
through the Niger Delta and corruption is a
crosscutting issue which contributes to all of the
economic, political and security issues highlighted
here.
Untying this knot is extremely difficult. Technical
improvements can be made in all of these areas, which
would improve the various parts of the problem. But
more broadly speaking, the government must take an
integrated approach: improve the implementation of
the amnesty program; increase investment in
infrastructure and public services such as health,
I n the Niger Delta region, criminality and militancy have worsened in the
last year. These problems have long appeared intractable, despite many
efforts to address them, including the deployment of troops and an amnesty
www.fundforpeace.org 17 The Fund for Peace
Recommendations
Recommendations
electricity, and education; and hold the security forces
accountable for human rights violations. Civil society
should be more proactive about bringing cases of
corruption to the courts.
It will take a combined effort of actors with conflicting
interests and good reasons to distrust each other,
working together, to address the political, security, and
development issues facing the Niger Delta and Nigeria
as a whole.
www.fundforpeace.org 18 The Fund for Peace
www.fundforpeace.org 19 The Fund for Peace
About The Fund for Peace
T he Fund for Peace is an independent, nonpartisan, 501(c)(3) non-profit
research and educational organization that works to prevent violent
conflict and promote sustainable security.
Conflict Early Warning and Assessment
Transnational Threats
Sustainable Development, Sustainable Security
We promote sustainable security through research,
training and education, engagement of civil society,
building bridges across diverse sectors, and developing
innovative technologies and tools for policy makers.
A leader in the conflict assessment and early warning
field, the Fund for Peace focuses on the problems of
weak and failing states. Our objective is to create
practical tools and approaches for conflict mitigation
that are useful to decision-makers.
The Fund for Peace adopts a holistic approach to the
issues stemming from weak and failing states. We
work at both the grassroots level with civil society
actors and at policy levels with key decision makers.
We have worked in over 50 countries with a wide
range of partners in all sectors: governments, interna-
tional organizations, the military, nongovernmental
organizations, academics, journalists, civil society
networks, and the private sector.
The Fund for Peace offers a wide range of initiatives
focused on our central objective of promoting sustain-
able security, the ability of a state to solve its own
problems peacefully without an external military or
administrative presence. Our programs fall into three
primary thematic areas: Conflict Early Warning and
Assessment; Transnational Threats; and Sustainable
Development, Sustainable Security.