preparing for sea level rise in san francisco bay bc3 june 17, 2011 jeremy lowe, esa pwa
TRANSCRIPT
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PREPARING FOR SEA LEVEL RISEIN SAN FRANCISCO BAY
BC3June 17, 2011
Jeremy Lowe, ESA PWA
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Mitigation - avoiding the unmanageable
Adaptation - managing the unavoidable
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1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
14
40
47
55
25
7
19
58
Sea Level Rise - USACE (2009) Circular 1155-2-211OPC Resolution March 11, 2011
Presidio Observed Presidio 19yr Mov Avg USACE Curve III USACE Curve IUSACE Historic OPC High OPC Medium OPC Low
Year
Sea
Leve
l Rise
Rel
ative
to 2
000,
in
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2000 - 0 in2050 14 in2100 55 in2100+ ?? in
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6.5ft NAVD - King Tide, January 2011
5.9ft NAVD – MHHW
0.6ft increase ~ 2010 - 2030
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Photo: Mark Songey, 02/17/11
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Photo: Heidi Nutters, 11:30am, 02/17/11
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Frank’s Dump West - New Year’s Eve 20058.9 ft tides; 40mph westerly winds Photo: Mark Taylor
Inundation
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Erosion
Hayward Marsh - New Year’s Eve 20058.9 ft tides; 40mph westerly winds Photo: Mark Taylor
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Functions
Urban Habitat Storm drainage Land fill Wastewater Utility corridors Trails
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Storm drainage Designed for a certain bay elevation
Lack of drainage as MLLW rises Structures fixed relative to tide frame Upstream impacts will increase
Exposure increaseswith time
Adaptation mayrequire pumping
Opportunity toconsolidate
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Functions
Urban Habitat Storm drainage Land fill Sewage treatment Utility corridors Trails
PGE
EBDA line
Railroad
Cable
HP Gas
Bay trail
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Hold the Line
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Realign
Rapid landward movement increases as sea level rises
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Terraced Levee
Rapid landward movement increases as sea level rises
Mudflat Tidal Marsh Brackish MarshFreshwater
Swale
Treated Wastewater and Stormwater
Seepage
Overflow
Wave Attenuation
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0ft 1ft 2ft 3ft 4ft
Existing levees
Terraced levees
Realign functions
Terraced levees
Enhance existing wetlands, realign levees
Lead Time Effective
Realign functions
Threshold
5ft
Decision
An Adaptation Strategy?
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San Pedro Road, China Camp - January 2010 spring tidePhoto: Peter
Baye
Not an Adaptation Strategy