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Preparing for climate change – the case for building climate resilience into the municipal planning and implementation process
Mark Summerton 18 April 2016
Planning for Resilience Page 2
Climate change could wipe $2.5 trillion off the value of global assets, according to a new set of economic models
Planning for Resilience Page 3
Country vulnerability to climate change and other global challenges in combination with its readiness to improve resilience, to help businesses and the public sector better prioritize investments for a more efficient response to the immediate global challenges ahead.
Planning for Resilience
Potential impacts in municipal environment
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– Failure / poor functionality of infrastructure due to inadequate design specifications
– Damage caused by extreme events
– Health impacts
– Water supply risks and sanitation
– Natural Ecosystems
– Etc……
In addition to an already stressed system
Planning for Resilience
State of the art planning mechanisms
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– Integrated development plans
– Water services development plans
– SDBIP business plans
– Master Plans
– Plans for developing buildings and other infrastructure
– Transport plans
– Etc
But just how sustainable and resilient are these plans if they don’t incorporate a changing climate
Actual usage
Projected usage
Current Yield DEFICIT
Balancing water supply and demand
Actual usage
Projected usage
Current Yield
DEFICIT
DEFICIT
New source of supply
Balancing water supply and demand
New source of supply
Actual usage
Projected usage
Current Yield
DEFICIT
New source of supply
DEFICIT
Balancing water supply and demand
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
2.2
Current Planning future Intermediate future Distant future
Time Horizon
1: 1
00 y
ear y
ield
(as
ratio
of "
Cur
rent
")
IPSa2ECHa2CRMa2GSSa2CCCa2CCSM3a1bECH5a1bCCCSM3b2ECH4a2ECH4b2
2030
Potential impact of climate change on water supply
DEFICIT
DEFICIT SURPLUS
Risk: Incur unnecessary expense to secure water that is not needed
What if a particularly wet scenario manifests in future?
DEFICIT
DEFICIT
Risk: Alternate water supply not in place – drought, restrictions
What if a particularly dry scenario manifests in future?
Planning for Resilience April 20, 2016 Page 12
– Provide household infrastructure and services
– Creation of liveable, integrated cities, towns and rural areas
– Local Economic Development
– Empowered communities
(Dr Sithole on the constitution, DHI 18/4/2016)
Planning for Resilience
How do we build resilience – Possible Solutions
Standards
– CDP Carbon disclosure project
– Compact of Mayors / C40
– Water stewardship
Assessment frameworks
– Let’s respond toolkit (SALGA)
– Disaster Resilience Scorecard
– 100 Resilient Cities
– Accounting: GHG, Carbon and Water foot printing
– Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Framework for Infrastructure
April 20, 2016 Page 13
Planning for Resilience
April 20, 2016 Presentation Title Page 14 December 2, 2015 Climate change and infrastructure resilience in Africa Page 14
Planning for Resilience
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Planning for Resilience April 20, 2016 Page 16
Planning for Resilience
April 20, 2016 Page 17
Planning for Resilience
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Launched at the 2014 United Nations Climate Summit, the Compact of Mayors is the world’s largest coalition of city leaders addressing climate change by pledging to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions, tracking their progress and preparing for the impacts of climate change. Learn more
Planning for Resilience
Building resilience – The Plan – Build strong institutional support and show commitment,
– Scope problem, screen risks, consider hazards, research methods,
– Develop the plan based on national strategy and initiatives,
– Coordination and stakeholder support,
– Scientific impact assessment on business,
– Detailed risk assessment on key business systems,
– Include climate as a business risk, identify resilience / adaptation options, cost benefit analysis,
– Embed climate projects in operations and implementation, and
– Explore innovative opportunities for financing climate change flavoured bankable projects.
April 20, 2016 Page 19
Planning for Resilience
Funding for climate change related projects is increasing
– AfDB: Triple to nearly $5 billion per annum by 2020 (40% of total funding)
– World Bank: to potentially $29 billion (28%)
– IDB: doubling of financing by 2020
– ADB: doubling to $6 billion by 2020
– Numerous others:
http://newsroom.unfccc.int/financial-flows/list-of-recent-climate-funding-announcements/
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Extra slides
Planning for Resilience
Building mitigation
– Scaling up clean energy and infrastructure
– Climate and energy policy
– Carbon markets (tax)
– Energy efficiency, renewables, clean technology
– Metrics, carbon budgets, reduction goals (GHG inventory, CDP)
– Product innovation in carbon constrained market
– Ecological infrastructure
– New Market Mechanisms (NMMs) within the Framework for Various Approaches
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Planning for Resilience
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